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Badgers Football 2019

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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 16, 2019, 8:41 PM Post
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yourout said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
yourout said:
I don't see any way Iowa holds on to this


LOL ... you are that guy that verbalizes every worst case scenario, aren't you?

Hey.....it worked didn't it.


[rolling eyes]


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 16, 2019, 8:49 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Crazy thing about the Minnesota-Wisconsin game is that it is very possible that if OSU runs the table prior to the BIG Championship, the Wisconsin-Minnesota game might be for the right to go to the Rose Bowl, as a win or loss in the Championship likely puts the Wisc-Min winner there as Big Ten Champ or with OSU in the Playoff.


Is that how it works? Does the runner up automatically go if OSU is in the playoff? (Almost certain). Or can they pick another team from the East?


Next best team, so yes...they could pick Penn State. Problem is you basically have to assume Minnesota or Wisconsin wins their next two games and Penn State will lose against OSU. That puts them all at two losses if Wisconsin wins. Wisconsin would definitely have the upper hand over Minnesota at that point and Wisconsin probably ranks over Penn State at that point to.

I doubt they penalize Wisconsin for getting railed by OSU a second time in the championship game while everyone else is idle. Wouldn’t shock me though. To me it is either Minnesota or Wisconsin...or at least should.


Last edited by MrTPlush on November 16, 2019, 9:49 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 16, 2019, 9:44 PM Post
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RollieTime said:
adambr2 said:
If Baylor runs the table, they should be in the CFP, shouldn't they?


I would think so. They are sure putting on a clinic tonight. Fun game to watch!


Ol Mr. Momentum sure changed in a hurry. These last 7 minutes will be interesting.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 16, 2019, 10:10 PM Post
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Whoops, so much for Baylor running the table. They gave it away.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 16, 2019, 10:42 PM Post
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Location: Ohio
Minnesota will take a tumble in the ranks but I believe they will in the top 25...

Baylor will take a larger tumble and I have to wonder if they remain in the top 25...


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 16, 2019, 10:53 PM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
Minnesota will take a tumble in the ranks but I believe they will in the top 25...

Baylor will take a larger tumble and I have to wonder if they remain in the top 25...


Minnesota will probably drop to the 16-20 range. Baylor will probably move back a couple spots to the 15-18 range. They did lose to a top 10 team by only 3 points so I don’t see them dropping too far.


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Online  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 16, 2019, 11:57 PM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
Minnesota will take a tumble in the ranks but I believe they will in the top 25...

Baylor will take a larger tumble and I have to wonder if they remain in the top 25...



A 9 - 1 Big Ten team losing on the road to a top 25 team isn't going to take a huge drop. Certainly not out of the top 25. I'd bet Minny stays in the top 15 - 18 range, and Baylor probably about the same.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 7:19 AM Post
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I would rather win the Big Ten Champ than the Rose Bowl but either would make a great season.

Just because it's what I do on Sunday mornings like this one I looked around to see what it would take for a 2 loss Badger team to get in the CFP this year. At first it looks not so bad, just need LSU to win out and Auburn to beat a Tua less Bama to eliminate a 2nd team from the SEC. Then OSU beats PSU and loses to Michigan(they are due?). It gets a lot tougher to eliminate one of the Big12 or PAC though, the PAC is getting a team in unless Oregon State can upset Oregon and Oregon turns around and beats Utah. Not likely. In the Big12 OU plays ranked OSU and Baylor plays ranked Texas so the chances are OK that someone comes into the Championship game with 2 losses, especially Baylor.

Even outside of the Badgers own games that's 6 or 7 games that have to go our way and at least a couple would be upsets. But if Bama and Ohio State lose I could see Bucky going into championship weekend with an outside shot sort of like a few years ago when we lost to Penn state.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 7:25 AM Post
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Badgers have a 33% chance of making the playoffs. Right in the mix if they somehow won out. A big reason why I wanted Minnesota to beat PSU a week ago. Gives them a shot.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 7:33 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
LOL, I'd put the Badger's chances of making the playoffs more around 2.5%. Would only give them about a 5% chance of beating Ohio State...and the Minnesota game is looking like it will probably be a toss-up so cut the 5% in half. 2.5%.


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Online  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 7:40 AM Post
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OldHeidelberg said:
I would rather win the Big Ten Champ than the Rose Bowl but either would make a great season.


My point is/was that it's possible that they could do both, but if they get beat in Indy as most would expect them to, the Rose is very possibly the outcome either way.


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Online  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
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JosephC said:
LOL, I'd put the Badger's chances of making the playoffs more around 2.5%. Would only give them about a 5% chance of beating Ohio State...and the Minnesota game is looking like it will probably be a toss-up so cut the 5% in half. 2.5%.


Fivethirtyeight runs playoff odds based on the likely outcome of each game, and they have the Badgers at 4%, so you're in the ballpark.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

If the Badger DO manage to win out, they're at 33%. That number will move a lot depending on the next two weeks worth of outcomes, but if they somehow beat Minnesota and OSU (neither of which can be assumed, of course), there's a plausible chance. But practically? Not really.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 8:39 AM Post
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There is just no way to me a 2 loss Badger team has a 1/3 chance if they win out.

You would need an insane set of circumstances. Auburn has to beat Bama. LSU has to win out and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Oregon has to not win the Pac 10.

There is nothing that LSU, Clemson, and OSU can realistically do at this point to play themselves out of a playoff spot. They could lose their conference championships and still will easily get as a 1 loss team over a 2 loss B10 champ.

The committee doesn't value conference championships as much as they say they do. Wisconsin could blow out OSU 55-10 in the B10 Championship. The committee is still going to take who they know the better team is. Same if OSU loses to PSU and doesn't even play in the conference championship. They'll get in without it.

So at best you've got one available spot and to even get that you most likely need a ton of things to go right and even then you've still most likely got a 1 loss Big 12 team that will get the nod.

It's just not going to happen IMO.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 9:19 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
There is just no way to me a 2 loss Badger team has a 1/3 chance if they win out.

You would need an insane set of circumstances. Auburn has to beat Bama. LSU has to win out and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Oregon has to not win the Pac 10.

There is nothing that LSU, Clemson, and OSU can realistically do at this point to play themselves out of a playoff spot. They could lose their conference championships and still will easily get as a 1 loss team over a 2 loss B10 champ.

The committee doesn't value conference championships as much as they say they do. Wisconsin could blow out OSU 55-10 in the B10 Championship. The committee is still going to take who they know the better team is. Same if OSU loses to PSU and doesn't even play in the conference championship. They'll get in without it.

So at best you've got one available spot and to even get that you most likely need a ton of things to go right and even then you've still most likely got a 1 loss Big 12 team that will get the nod.

It's just not going to happen IMO.


Ohio State definitely still has work to do, maybe you feel there is no way they lose to Michigan but I won't discount that happening in a rivalry game like that one. It's still early in the CFP to read too much into how much they value conference championships, the only thing they have been consistent on is a 2 loss team won't jump a 1 loss team if they are comparable. I do agree 33% seems high, too many variables. I mean it's tough to see without OSU beating PSU and losing to UM and what are the odds of that alone? Maybe they think a 2 loss Bucky beating an unbeaten OSU in the title game has a 20% chance of jumping them or something, I guess that is a scenario we haven't seen yet in CFP?


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 9:33 AM Post
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JosephC said:
LOL, I'd put the Badger's chances of making the playoffs more around 2.5%. Would only give them about a 5% chance of beating Ohio State...and the Minnesota game is looking like it will probably be a toss-up so cut the 5% in half. 2.5%.


It's 33% chance to make playoffs if they win out. The odds of winning out are not 33%.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 9:56 AM Post
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Just kinda looking at it today, assuming LSU and clemson win out, I think it would come down to the winner of the likely utah/Oregon conference game losing before that game or the winner of the likely Oklahoma/Baylor championship game losing a game before that game. Then the final 2 spots would come down to a 2 loss pac 12/big 12 champion, 2 loss badgers big 10 champion, 1 loss ohio st and Alabama no champion. I dont know if we could get ahead of a 1 loss pac 12/big 12 champion. Maybe Baylor since we would have so many more better wins.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Online  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:10 AM Post
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I think 2 loss Wisconsin is ahead of a 1 loss Baylor. Aside from that, I think the odds are still astronomically against, but the odds are not 0%.

RIght now, I'm hanging my hat on still having a decent shot at a NY6 bowl. I think talk of the playoffs is a pipe dream, but as long as it's mathematically possible, there's no reason we can't jibber jabber about it on a message board and dream up the "what if" scenarios. [smile]


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:13 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
There is just no way to me a 2 loss Badger team has a 1/3 chance if they win out.

You would need an insane set of circumstances. Auburn has to beat Bama. LSU has to win out and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Oregon has to not win the Pac 10.

There is nothing that LSU, Clemson, and OSU can realistically do at this point to play themselves out of a playoff spot. They could lose their conference championships and still will easily get as a 1 loss team over a 2 loss B10 champ.

The committee doesn't value conference championships as much as they say they do. Wisconsin could blow out OSU 55-10 in the B10 Championship. The committee is still going to take who they know the better team is. Same if OSU loses to PSU and doesn't even play in the conference championship. They'll get in without it.

So at best you've got one available spot and to even get that you most likely need a ton of things to go right and even then you've still most likely got a 1 loss Big 12 team that will get the nod.

It's just not going to happen IMO.


All that, to me, is the definition of a .33 chance.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:22 AM Post
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lcbj68c said:
adambr2 said:
There is just no way to me a 2 loss Badger team has a 1/3 chance if they win out.

You would need an insane set of circumstances. Auburn has to beat Bama. LSU has to win out and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Oregon has to not win the Pac 10.

There is nothing that LSU, Clemson, and OSU can realistically do at this point to play themselves out of a playoff spot. They could lose their conference championships and still will easily get as a 1 loss team over a 2 loss B10 champ.

The committee doesn't value conference championships as much as they say they do. Wisconsin could blow out OSU 55-10 in the B10 Championship. The committee is still going to take who they know the better team is. Same if OSU loses to PSU and doesn't even play in the conference championship. They'll get in without it.

So at best you've got one available spot and to even get that you most likely need a ton of things to go right and even then you've still most likely got a 1 loss Big 12 team that will get the nod.

It's just not going to happen IMO.


All that, to me, is the definition of a .33 chance.


Sure, .33%. Not 33%.


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Online  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
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Conditional probablility is the theory being utilized here.... There seems to be some confusion regarding the idea that that probability changes literally as every other relevant game ends between this moment and the last Championship game in 3 weeks.

As noted previously, the 33% chance is only a result of the Badgers winning the rest of their games, which is statistically an unlikely outcome in and of itself. Even if you assume that they win all three of those games, the 33% will be higher or lower from this point because of the results that happen around them.


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