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Badgers Football 2019

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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:38 AM Post
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[laughing] People arguing over percentages when it comes to odds is always funny to me. I asked for a chance from this team and now they have one. Long shot? Sure. But it’s better than it was two weeks ago after losing to OSU.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:43 AM Post
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I won't pretend to know what the actual odds are of UW in the playoff, but it's not hard to see how slim it really is. Figure what, probably a 90% chance of beating Purdue, 50/50 to beat Minnesota, and maybe 10% to beat OSU.

That puts them at about 4.5% just for them to win out and so if you cut that by 1/3rd it's 1.5%. So I suppose they have a chance in the same way Lloyd Christmas does.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:46 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
I won't pretend to know what the actual odds are of UW in the playoff, but it's not hard to see how slim it really is. Figure what, probably a 90% chance of beating Purdue, 50/50 to beat Minnesota, and maybe 10% to beat OSU.

That puts them at about 4.5% just for them to win out and so if you cut that by 1/3rd it's 1.5%. So I suppose they have a chance in the same way Lloyd Christmas does.


Again, the link I posted above does that math for you and puts their chance right now at 4%.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
I won't pretend to know what the actual odds are of UW in the playoff, but it's not hard to see how slim it really is. Figure what, probably a 90% chance of beating Purdue, 50/50 to beat Minnesota, and maybe 10% to beat OSU.

That puts them at about 4.5% just for them to win out and so if you cut that by 1/3rd it's 1.5%. So I suppose they have a chance in the same way Lloyd Christmas does.


... but it’s at least a chance. And if they do that, they then have a shot at getting included in the playoffs. So, I’ll take it.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:51 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
adambr2 said:
I won't pretend to know what the actual odds are of UW in the playoff, but it's not hard to see how slim it really is. Figure what, probably a 90% chance of beating Purdue, 50/50 to beat Minnesota, and maybe 10% to beat OSU.

That puts them at about 4.5% just for them to win out and so if you cut that by 1/3rd it's 1.5%. So I suppose they have a chance in the same way Lloyd Christmas does.


Again, the link I posted above does that math for you and puts their chance right now at 4%.


I guess they must figure better chances of beating Minnesota or OSU than I am giving them, then.

In any event, if they even make the Rose Bowl I'll be thrilled.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:57 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
JosephC said:
LOL, I'd put the Badger's chances of making the playoffs more around 2.5%. Would only give them about a 5% chance of beating Ohio State...and the Minnesota game is looking like it will probably be a toss-up so cut the 5% in half. 2.5%.


Fivethirtyeight runs playoff odds based on the likely outcome of each game, and they have the Badgers at 4%, so you're in the ballpark.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

If the Badger DO manage to win out, they're at 33%. That number will move a lot depending on the next two weeks worth of outcomes, but if they somehow beat Minnesota and OSU (neither of which can be assumed, of course), there's a plausible chance. But practically? Not really.


So Alabama, currently #5, IF they win out has a 19% chance of making the playoff? Even though they're already #5, would be a 1 loss team and would beat Auburn in the meantime, they have a 19% chance of making the playoff if they win out and we have a 33% chance of making the playoff if we win out?

Yeah, I call bullcrap on that.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 10:58 AM Post
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Minnesota is very good but that spread will be something like MN -3.5 I'd be much more concerned about them if they had a dominant defense. If UW runs the ball and doesn't turn it over they have a very good shot at winning.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 11:13 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Fivethirtyeight runs playoff odds based on the likely outcome of each game, and they have the Badgers at 4%, so you're in the ballpark.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

If the Badger DO manage to win out, they're at 33%. That number will move a lot depending on the next two weeks worth of outcomes, but if they somehow beat Minnesota and OSU (neither of which can be assumed, of course), there's a plausible chance. But practically? Not really.


So Alabama, currently #5, IF they win out has a 19% chance of making the playoff? Even though they're already #5, would be a 1 loss team and would beat Auburn in the meantime, they have a 19% chance of making the playoff if they win out and we have a 33% chance of making the playoff if we win out?

Yeah, I call bullcrap on that.


They'd win out and have the problem of LSU, Clemson, and OSU already locked into spots ahead of them, and the strong chance that a 1-loss Pac-12 or Big-12 team ends with a better SOS/quality of wins. Alabama's only win vs. a ranked opponent would be that hypothetical Auburn win.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 11:23 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
adambr2 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Fivethirtyeight runs playoff odds based on the likely outcome of each game, and they have the Badgers at 4%, so you're in the ballpark.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

If the Badger DO manage to win out, they're at 33%. That number will move a lot depending on the next two weeks worth of outcomes, but if they somehow beat Minnesota and OSU (neither of which can be assumed, of course), there's a plausible chance. But practically? Not really.


So Alabama, currently #5, IF they win out has a 19% chance of making the playoff? Even though they're already #5, would be a 1 loss team and would beat Auburn in the meantime, they have a 19% chance of making the playoff if they win out and we have a 33% chance of making the playoff if we win out?

Yeah, I call bullcrap on that.


They'd win out and have the problem of LSU, Clemson, and OSU already locked into spots ahead of them, and the strong chance that a 1-loss Pac-12 or Big-12 team ends with a better SOS/quality of wins. Alabama's only win vs. a ranked opponent would be that hypothetical Auburn win.


Also a dominant win on the road over #24 T A&M. And their only loss would be a close loss to a dominant LSU team.

We've been down this road with the committee before. Maybe I am just jaded by their past decisions, but I don't believe for one second that the committee is going to take any 1 loss SEC team, much less Alabama, over a 2 loss B10 champ Wisconsin team with a loss to Illinois and a blowout loss to OSU.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 11:31 AM Post
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The loss to the Illini is the one that is really going to gut our hopes. If we just had the one loss to OSU, won the next 2 and then won the rematch, I think we'd have a pretty ironclad case as a 1 loss B10 champ.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 11:43 AM Post
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Bama is actually in a similar position as the Badgers in that they are going to hope to be competing with a 2 loss conference champion for the 4th spot. I would rather be in their spot right now but they can't help themselves much anymore and losing their star QB could work against them. The basketball committee takes key injuries into consideration.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 11:46 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
PeaveyFury said:
They'd win out and have the problem of LSU, Clemson, and OSU already locked into spots ahead of them, and the strong chance that a 1-loss Pac-12 or Big-12 team ends with a better SOS/quality of wins. Alabama's only win vs. a ranked opponent would be that hypothetical Auburn win.


Also a dominant win on the road over #24 T A&M. And their only loss would be a close loss to a dominant LSU team.

We've been down this road with the committee before. Maybe I am just jaded by their past decisions, but I don't believe for one second that the committee is going to take any 1 loss SEC team, much less Alabama, over a 2 loss B10 champ Wisconsin team with a loss to Illinois and a blowout loss to OSU.


Oh, I agree.... but the 33% Wisconsin probability is independent of Alabama's 19% at this point as there are too many variables. Also, you're 100% correct that just because the resume' is statistically more likely to be better or whatever, it doesn't mean that the human element of the committee can be accurately factored into modeling.

adambr2 said:
The loss to the Illini is the one that is really going to gut our hopes. If we just had the one loss to OSU, won the next 2 and then won the rematch, I think we'd have a pretty ironclad case as a 1 loss B10 champ.


Yep. You'd be sitting here with a very high chance that if 12-0 OSU met 11-1 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, that game might have been a play-in game for the Playoff.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 11:49 AM Post
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OldHeidelberg said:
Bama is actually in a similar position as the Badgers in that they are going to hope to be competing with a 2 loss conference champion for the 4th spot. I would rather be in their spot right now but they can't help themselves much anymore and losing their star QB could work against them. The basketball committee takes key injuries into consideration.


Agreed. The other problem is that now that Auburn has 3 losses already, there's a legit chance Alabama won't end up with a win vs. a top 20 team on their resume. It's funny how in a situation like that with Iowa or Wisconsin a few years ago, it's held sigificantly against us, but when it's Alabama, no one talks about it.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 17, 2019, 4:40 PM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
Lots of motion and little wrinkles in the offense today.

I've been saying it for a long time, amazing things happen when you run and fake the jet sweep. Keeps the OLBs and safeties from crashing the box, opening up the middle, and if they do crash the box it opens up the outside for the sweep. No coincidence that Taylor had a whole bunch of 10+ yard runs up the middle after they ran/faked it a few times.

Also no coincidence that Coan could have arguably his worst game of the year and they still score 37 points.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 23, 2019, 9:25 AM Post
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I think I will be rooting for 19 point dog PSU today. The best of our slim CFP hopes is being the only real candidate coming out of the Big Ten and that really requires OSU losing in Michigan next week regardless of today's outcome. Plus PSU is likely an easier opponent in the BTCG and there are better Rose Bowl prospects with that scenario as well. One of the Arizona teams winning tonight would be big as well but those are similar long shots. Going by the lines the only close matchup today for CFP contendors would be Texas at Baylor but not sure Baylor needs to lose to help the Badgers.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 23, 2019, 9:56 AM Post
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SEC on their annual late season bye week. Such a joke.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 23, 2019, 11:06 AM Post
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I dont know. Our best shot might be beating an undefeated #2(or 1 if lsu trips up before then) ranked ohio st team on a neutral field.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 23, 2019, 11:44 AM Post
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young guns said:
I dont know. Our best shot might be beating an undefeated #2(or 1 if lsu trips up before then) ranked ohio st team on a neutral field.


That would give the Badgers their best resume and may be the only way they jump a 1 loss Bama but Ohio State is likely already in then which means 3 spots are taken and the PAC12 is a good bet for a 1 loss champ as well. A top 5ish PSU would be a pretty good win.


OSU looks unbeatable so far but just fumbled going into the end zone.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 23, 2019, 12:14 PM Post
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According to that playoff projections site, a PSU win today actually decreases the Badgers' playoff chances by 6%.

Realistically, I'm rooting for the Rose Bowl, and an OSU win makes it less likely PSU will be a more attractive pick for them.


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Offline  Re: Badgers Football 2019
Posted: November 23, 2019, 2:31 PM Post
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Did Ohio State’s fans just rush the field after beating a lower-ranked team?


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