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2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread

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Online  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 6:42 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
Martinez isn't someone to give a lot of money to, but if he's gone then what?


Yeah. I'm about halfway in between the 'statistics say he's great' and 'twitter says he's the worst MLB ever' poles, but I saw a projection for Martinez to get 5/$82 mil in free agency. That's insanity.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 8:12 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
LouisEly said:
Martinez isn't someone to give a lot of money to, but if he's gone then what?


Yeah. I'm about halfway in between the 'statistics say he's great' and 'twitter says he's the worst MLB ever' poles, but I saw a projection for Martinez to get 5/$82 mil in free agency. That's insanity.


Yeah, if Martinez is going to get that kind of coin, forget it. They could sign a guy like Joe Schobert or Nick Kwiatkowski and get a guy who is better in pass coverage and probably more athletic.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 8:44 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.


Because he is a really good kicker and % of kicks made is a poor metric. Crosby has attempted a ton of kicks from 50+ in his career. 66 of them, hitting 53%. For reference, Steven Gostkowski is the same age, has attempted 22 more, and has attempted...35 from 50+. That's going to hurt your overall numbers.

Ryan Longwell, with 28 more career attempts, fired 39 from 50+. Crosby was a little bit of a relic, in that the trend definitely shifted from guys with boots to accuracy being more important in the 2000s. But he was both. He was pretty close to automatic inside 40 = 92.4% from his career, and basically on par with Gostkowski from 40-49, a couple points lower. And Crosby still gave you chance with those 55+ boomer kicks.

I think you're being grossly disingenuous with what Mason Crosby has accomplished, playing half his games in GB no less, along with the number of high pressure kicks he's made. The one he made into the wind to send the NFCCG in Seattle into OT was probably the best kick of his career.

Kicker is a position with a lot of variables. It's probably the worst position in the league for scanning a list of guys for % and determining where they rank amongst their peers. It's rare that two kicks are the same and nobody is influenced as much by the weather.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 8:48 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.


I remember when Robbie Gould wanted 3 million per year and the dumb GM said he wasn't going to let a kicker make that type of demand and showed Gould the door. That one worked out real well.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 8:52 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
I also think the weather is a bit lame. It isn't even very cold in GB until January, really. He was tracking for a Pro Bowl until Kansas City, his worst game of the year, and then he was pretty terrible from there on out. There are dome games where he sucked and snow games where he played fine. He had 4 or so games where he was pathetic the way an NFL punter simply can't be, the same kickers can't go 0/4.

It's not just temperature, it's also wind and rain. I don't know about Green Bay, but in Chicago it was cold and/or rainy pretty much all of late October and November. It was a wet fall here, and temperatures dropped to highs around 40 in late October and rarely got above 50 after that. I would assume colder in Green Bay. If it's windy enough, it can alter the ball slightly when dropping it to not get square on contact.


Yeah, ask the worthless Badger punter about that. Oh wait, that guy is in Southern California and still cannot drop the ball within a yard of his foot. [angry]


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 9:16 PM Post
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JosephC said:
adambr2 said:
I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.


I remember when Robbie Gould wanted 3 million per year and the dumb GM said he wasn't going to let a kicker make that type of demand and showed Gould the door. That one worked out real well.


The same Robbie Gould that hit 74% of his kicks this year while Piniero hit 82? And while Parkey wasn't good in 2018, he wasn't 2012 Crosby bad, either. He was lights out in 2017, was a little bit worse than average in 2018 and the Bears made an impulsive emotional decision to dump him because of one playoff kick that wasn't even his fault.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 9:27 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
adambr2 said:
I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.


Because he is a really good kicker and % of kicks made is a poor metric. Crosby has attempted a ton of kicks from 50+ in his career. 66 of them, hitting 53%. For reference, Steven Gostkowski is the same age, has attempted 22 more, and has attempted...35 from 50+. That's going to hurt your overall numbers.

Ryan Longwell, with 28 more career attempts, fired 39 from 50+. Crosby was a little bit of a relic, in that the trend definitely shifted from guys with boots to accuracy being more important in the 2000s. But he was both. He was pretty close to automatic inside 40 = 92.4% from his career, and basically on par with Gostkowski from 40-49, a couple points lower. And Crosby still gave you chance with those 55+ boomer kicks.

I think you're being grossly disingenuous with what Mason Crosby has accomplished, playing half his games in GB no less, along with the number of high pressure kicks he's made. The one he made into the wind to send the NFCCG in Seattle into OT was probably the best kick of his career.

Kicker is a position with a lot of variables. It's probably the worst position in the league for scanning a list of guys for % and determining where they rank amongst their peers. It's rare that two kicks are the same and nobody is influenced as much by the weather.


He's not a really good kicker. He was a really good kicker in 2019. He's fine. He's a guy. Most modern NFL kickers are great these days or they hit the unemployment line. I do give Mason some credit for the intangibles you mentioned like 50+ attempts, but the way some Packer fans talk about him you'd think he was one of the greatest ever.

It's not as big of a factor as you're making it out to be, though. When you compare him to Gostkowski on 50+ yard attempts, it looks like it is. Then compare him to Justin Tucker, who attempts a far higher number of 50+ kicks on a per year basis and his career percentage blows Crosby out of the water.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 9:41 PM Post
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You saying he's not a good kicker isn't a really compelling argument until you give us something to back it up other than weak overall % numbers that tell don't tell us much at all.

The two greatest kickers of the 90s are pretty much unanimously Jason Elam and Jason Hanson. Mason Crosby has essentially identical % numbers and what do all 3 have in common? They kicked a ton of long field goals.

Morten Andersen? 2 points below Crosby and again…kicked a ton of long field goals. Gary Anderson, attempted 40, hit 12, has a lower % than Crosby. David Akers? Mason is right there with him.

The analytics push got NFL teams off attempting really long field goals because hitting 40% of them is probably similar to an interception. Today, most teams won’t attempt a 55 yarder unless they feel really good about the conditions and their guy. There are a good number of teams that generally won’t bother unless they’re indoors.

The data on kickers will tell you they’re getting better from every distance, which might be true, but you’ll work in the NFL is you hit 90% from inside 40. Up until around the 2000s, teams were happy with guys that could hit inside 60 and were forgiving of misses If you had a boot. They don’t really do that anymore, and If you’re in the 70% range in short distance you’ll be unemployed.

Kicking a lot of long field goals isn't intangible. It's a thing that happens. You don't get to attempt 400+ field goals without being a really good kicker. Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 attempts of 50+ per season, because like most teams, they won't kick them unless they're pretty sure he's going to make them, i.e. they're inside, it's 51 yards and calm, etc.

If you're saying Mason isn't Justin Tucker, or he's not Adam Vinatieri, ok. The former might be the best kicker ever. But he is absolutely a really good one, and his body of work speaks for itself.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 9:55 PM Post
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Let me clarify that I think it's fair to say he's an average K right now. But I don't think it's fair to compare his career achievements to a bunch of 24 year olds that top the league. I didn't pull Gostkowski out of thin air, they're just comped very well due to their age. When you compare Crosby to his peer group, he's been a really good kicker.

Being a kicker is a brutal job. At least one of those young guys in the top 5 will suddenly lose it and never got to play again. Teams understandably have a hard time parting with a guy that makes most of the easy ones when you can draft the wrong guy and end up with a disaster on your hands. Crosby's rarely lost games and that's why he's stuck around.

I definitely never thought I'd get into kickers this much.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 10:11 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
JosephC said:
adambr2 said:
I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.


I remember when Robbie Gould wanted 3 million per year and the dumb GM said he wasn't going to let a kicker make that type of demand and showed Gould the door. That one worked out real well.


The same Robbie Gould that hit 74% of his kicks this year while Piniero hit 82? And while Parkey wasn't good in 2018, he wasn't 2012 Crosby bad, either. He was lights out in 2017, was a little bit worse than average in 2018 and the Bears made an impulsive emotional decision to dump him because of one playoff kick that wasn't even his fault.


The same Robbie Gould that has hit 90.5% of his regular season field goal attempts since the Bears dumped him and is 5/5 in the playoffs this year.


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Online  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 10:14 PM Post
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Tough kicking crowd.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 21, 2020, 10:51 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
You saying he's not a good kicker isn't a really compelling argument until you give us something to back it up other than weak overall % numbers that tell don't tell us much at all.

The two greatest kickers of the 90s are pretty much unanimously Jason Elam and Jason Hanson. Mason Crosby has essentially identical % numbers and what do all 3 have in common? They kicked a ton of long field goals.

Morten Andersen? 2 points below Crosby and again…kicked a ton of long field goals. Gary Anderson, attempted 40, hit 12, has a lower % than Crosby. David Akers? Mason is right there with him.

The analytics push got NFL teams off attempting really long field goals because hitting 40% of them is probably similar to an interception. Today, most teams won’t attempt a 55 yarder unless they feel really good about the conditions and their guy. There are a good number of teams that generally won’t bother unless they’re indoors.

The data on kickers will tell you they’re getting better from every distance, which might be true, but you’ll work in the NFL is you hit 90% from inside 40. Up until around the 2000s, teams were happy with guys that could hit inside 60 and were forgiving of misses If you had a boot. They don’t really do that anymore, and If you’re in the 70% range in short distance you’ll be unemployed.

Kicking a lot of long field goals isn't intangible. It's a thing that happens. You don't get to attempt 400+ field goals without being a really good kicker. Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 attempts of 50+ per season, because like most teams, they won't kick them unless they're pretty sure he's going to make them, i.e. they're inside, it's 51 yards and calm, etc.

If you're saying Mason isn't Justin Tucker, or he's not Adam Vinatieri, ok. The former might be the best kicker ever. But he is absolutely a really good one, and his body of work speaks for itself.

What numbers do you want me to give you? I can give you where he ranked among his peers in accuracy in any given NFL season, (once in awhile in the top 10, but usually the middle to lower part of the pack), but if you don't put any stock into it then it doesn't really do much good for me to do that. So I'm not really sure what you are looking for. Total points is just a longetivity stat.

You can't compare kickers from different eras. It's apples to oranges. Kickers in the 90s weren't nearly as good as they are now, and kickers in the 70s and 80s weren't nearly as good as they were in the 90s. Kickers are better and more accurate than ever. It's why you can bring up a list of the top 30 most accurate FG kickers of all time at any time and probably at least 20 are active kickers. The top 25 NFL kickers today will probably stack up very well to the top 10 kickers in any given year in the 90s.

I will agree that there is something to be said for a kicker who can at least be consistently serviceable and not "lose it", but Crosby arguably did lose it in 2012. He is very fortunate that we stuck with him after that or his career could have easily gone in a different direction like someone like Parkey.

Yes, Mason has made some big game winning kicks. (he's actually missed a pretty good number of game winning kicks in his career, too, but fortunately those have typically come in the regular season). So has Will Lutz. So has Adam Vinatieri. So has Garrett Hartley, so has Nick Folk, so has Robbie Gould, so has Matt Bryant. My point is that these kicks in today's NFL, even under pressure, are usually made. So yeah, it's a cutthroat position for sure and a game like Mason had in Detroit last year can cost you your career if you're with the wrong organization. If Mason had that game with a different organization, he might be on the street now. By today's standards, Mason was a pretty inaccurate kicker for the first 3 years of his career and if he was with a less patient organization, his career might have ended after 2009. So while you don't get 400+ kicks being horrible, if you are just ok, you need some luck involved to get there, too. Mason has had some luck.

So if you're saying that in today's NFL the top 25 kickers are all really good and then there's a few floundering ones at the bottom or young inconsistent ones then I would agree with that. But for the most part they are pretty much all the same once they are established. The ones who can't hit 80% hit the street. Even perfectly serviceable guys like Dan Bailey sometimes find the street and get picked up by a team like the Vikings and don't miss a beat. Serviceable kickers are a dime a dozen, they're not a luxury.

Crosby seems like a super good guy and I'm happy for him and all the money he has made and the career he's had here. I just happen to have the opinion and belief that I knew is going to be an unpopular one, that he is overrated on reputation and I think generally dedicating $5M+ of cap room to a kicker is a waste unless you have a true elite of which there are very few.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 22, 2020, 7:59 AM Post
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I didn't compare Mason Crosby's skill to kickers from the 90s and you didn't get the point I was making. Frankly, if you look at the stats, there's a good chance Jason Elam is cut in today's NFL, because he wasn't terribly accurate from mid range.

I was pointing out that he's been used like a kicker from the 90s and his numbers reflect that. Gostkowski (not a 90s kicker) is a near-perfect comp because he's the same age and played in similar conditions.

If Mason Crosby had, like Gostkowski, attempted 35 kicks from 50+ in his career and connected at his career rate from there, his total % increases to 83.2%. And that's not as generous as it should be, because if he'd played for a coach who cared about it more he'd likely hit more than that since they'd be "safer" kicks.

It's not a coincidence that Crosby was 22/24 (though I agree he likely won't hit 90+ next year) this year under a new coach. Like most of the NFL they adapted and go for it more often in no man's land, or they just punt. There's a consequence to missed FGs that was largely ignored by most coaches prior to very recently.

He's not Tucker and he's not Gostkowski but you're setting a standard of best kicker in the league. Where I take exception is calling a guy who's made it 14 years as a kicker in arguably the league's worst kicking environment a "guy." When you use variance to look at how ALL kickers respond to stadiums, Lambeau comes in second to last, just ahead of Oakland, so I guess it is now THE worst.

There really needs to be a stat that weighs the kicks. Ideally it would take the conditions into account but that's probably not realistic. At least weigh the long distance FGs more than the chip shots like OPS or something.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 22, 2020, 8:17 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.


This team has at least 10 priorities it needs to address before even thinking about making a change at kicker (or punter, another recent tangent of yours). Both of those positions are very minor in the scheme of this team's future success. I'm sure Crosby will sign another deal, and it likely will not be the most expensive deal for a kicker in the league. Ficken arguably looked better than him last preseason. He's gonna know he can't be greedy. Crosby is just fine, though, and will likely be just fine for at least the next 3 seasons.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 22, 2020, 8:33 AM Post
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The way Scott played the 2nd half of the year is a legitimate concern and they should have a leg in camp just to make him nervous. Something strange is going on there. He lost 15 yards off his punts in the middle of the year.

Crosby sticks around because cutting him to sign a guy who kicks a couple percentage points higher isn't worth it when juxtaposed with the disaster you can have if those transitions don't work out.


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Online  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 22, 2020, 8:50 AM Post
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Crosby was very good this year. He was much better than average. For all the hype Robbie Gould gets, Crosby outkicked him on FGs from 30 - 49 yards.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 22, 2020, 11:10 AM Post
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Michael Lombardi was on The Score in Chicago this morning and just blasted Matt Lafluer. Paraphrasing what he said: Murphy hired Lafluer because he wanted a coach he could control more than he wanted to win. Lafluer lacks the ability to make the type of in game adjustments that top coaches make. In short he doesn't have counters to what top defensive coordinators do to him. He was also very hard on Lafluer for a game plan that might be fine against a team like the Lions but not against top teams.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 22, 2020, 11:26 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Michael Lombardi was on The Score in Chicago this morning and just blasted Matt Lafluer. Paraphrasing what he said: Murphy hired Lafluer because he wanted a coach he could control more than he wanted to win. Lafluer lacks the ability to make the type of in game adjustments that top coaches make. In short he doesn't have counters to what top defensive coordinators do to him. He was also very hard on Lafluer for a game plan that might be fine against a team like the Lions but not against top teams.


I think this is crap. Honestly, I pretty much forgot that Murphy was even involved with the team this season. He was very hands off, and you never heard from him once. I never got the impression that he was pulling the strings on anyone, either.

I do agree that LaFleur's game plan against the 49ers was terrible, and if the team was lacking in energy and motivation, the buck stops with him. That said, as a first-year head coach, I'm not sure what else could have been expected. But the honeymoon is over, and it appears that the 2020 schedule is going to be tougher than 2019. He needs to avoid the trap that Matt Nagy fell into this season.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 22, 2020, 11:32 AM Post
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He's an idiot that's used every opportunity to trash MLF from the day he was hired. He has egg all over his face because they won 14 games and this was his last effort to prove how right he was. Nothing more than that. He has a history of making hyperbolic criticism of guys he doesn't like.

He kept using this line about "The Packers fired a Super Bowl winning coach to hire an OC from the Titans!" Ignoring that Mike McCarthy was virtually the same exact kind of hire. There's nothing lazier than looking at the rankings of a team an OC/DC coached and determining whether or not he can be a HC.

MLF has to have more than one good year to prove himself but give me a break.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread
Posted: January 22, 2020, 11:57 AM Post
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It takes a really special kind of stupid to complain about a rookie coach whose team went 13-3 in the regular season, including 6-0 in the division with 2 wins against a Vikings team that beat the 2nd best team in the NFC at their home in the playoffs, won a tough game at home in the playoffs and lost to the best team in the NFC at their home in the NFC championship. Any intelligent football analyst knew their was a talent gap between the Packers and Niners and for the Packers to win they had no margin for error and had to execute their game plans flawlessly. Didn't happen.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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