LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16  Next  [ 314 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

2020 Packers Draft Thread

Author Message
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 8:28 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 13050
My issue with the draft is not who they took but that I thought they could have gotten Love at #30 (thus keeping their 4th round pick) and the next two guys one round later. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 and I'm basing this off of online scouting services so could be a grain of salt kind of thing.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 8:46 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1781
homer said:
My issue with the draft is not who they took but that I thought they could have gotten Love at #30 (thus keeping their 4th round pick) and the next two guys one round later. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 and I'm basing this off of online scouting services so could be a grain of salt kind of thing.


I remember reading several tidbits indicating that the Patriots were enamored with Deguara, and were trying to grab a second 3rd round pick in order to take him. Of course the Packers took him at #94, but then the Patriots turned around and drafted a very similar player in Dalton Keene after a trade up to #101. By many accounts Deguara was flying up draft boards very late in the process.

The scouting services were all over the map on Dillon. I saw anywhere from mid 2nd to mid 4th round on him, so I don't think grabbing him at the extreme end of the 2nd was a major stretch.

Regarding Love, I don't think there was any way they make that trade up to get him without some serious verified intel indicating that there was another team making a play to jump ahead of them. The story may come out eventually, but a veteran conservative personnel man like Gute doesn't typically trade up and give up an extra pick willy nilly unless he feels he's in extreme danger of not getting the guy he covets. Now whether taking a QB in the 1st round was the right choice ... I just don't know. It definitely wasn't the right choice if you are looking for immediate payout.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 11:02 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5791
Without the behind the scenes view we will never know what intel they had. History does show that people that trade up often have a tendency to lose out because busts happen. As long as it isn't happening often, I don't sweat it. Going backwards, then forwards to draft Alexander gives a lot of credibility in knowing whom to go after in my book.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 11:09 AM Post
Posts: 5127
PeaveyFury said:
I'm really confused as to what the purpose was for bumping this thread, and the ensuing discussion. The Packers clearly drafted with the future in mind, and a guy like Queen would look great in green and gold, but having/not having him hasn't negatively effected the team to this point. Trying to grade a draft after 4-5 games the next season is unproductive, especially when the 'make or break' player of the draft won't play for 2-3 years by design. If he gives them a third consecutive high-level QB, there won't be a single person who cares who was left on the board when they traded up to get him.


I bumped it because Chase Claypool had a 4TD day on Sunday. I said I'd have taken him at 30 before the draft and he would have been there at 30. 5TDs total now for him. He's going to be a star for a long time to come. Legit #2 and potentially #1 target for a QB even when talking about Adams for Rodgers.

I addressed that the team imo had 2 desperate needs to draft in the 1st round. ILB and WR. I want to win a SB not play fantasy football dynasty league with the 1st/4th rd picks. Summers is garbage, Queen is running circles around him while Summers is still trying to decide what he should do in the play. And that is today! 5games in to his career vs Summers having a full year on him to practice and learn the position.

Love is still holding a clipboard, and until Rodgers and Tim Boyle are injured to a point they can't play, he'll still be holding a clipboard. Love didn't fall to the 30th pick. Rodgers did fall to our pick. Comparable and huge, huge difference.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 11:28 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 15121
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I like that we go and get "our guys" but like the previous poster said, it often works out worse as you give up to get. And with the high percentage of "busts" and burnouts, it just doesn't make for a great draft strategy a lot of the times.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 11:34 AM Post
Posts: 2073
I’ve always favored staying put or trading back because some teams inevitably reach and push value down the board. If you’re willing to stay put and draft BPA at #30, you’re probably getting the 25th best player because of the tendency for some teams to draft for need or fall in love with a particular prospect.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 21947
nodakfan17 said:
I’ve always favored staying put or trading back because some teams inevitably reach and push value down the board. If you’re willing to stay put and draft BPA at #30, you’re probably getting the 25th best player because of the tendency for some teams to draft for need or fall in love with a particular prospect.


I'd agree with this. I don't like moving up unless the value is off the charts and you have pretty fair certainty based on the board and who is ahead of you and their needs that said player won't be available at your spot.

I also don't really agree with the sentiment that you "have intel" that a team will take a player. You might have a pretty good idea about which way a team is leaning but if you truly have intel on who they are picking they did not protect their draft board very well. Teams have a little bit more secrecy around their boards than that, and I'd even take it with a grain of salt if they come out after the fact and say they were going to take a certain player.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 11:52 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1781
brewcrewdue80 said:
Love is still holding a clipboard, and until Rodgers and Tim Boyle are injured to a point they can't play, he'll still be holding a clipboard. Love didn't fall to the 30th pick. Rodgers did fall to our pick. Comparable and huge, huge difference.


I'll mention yet again that NFL football teams do not use the same value system on potential picks as guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay do. This idea that Love didn't "fall" to the Packers is a non-starter. All it takes is the Packers feeling Love fell to them. Also, there was talk leading up to the 2005 draft that if Rodgers were to make it past the first few picks of the first round, he very well could fall. That wasn't a huge surprise.

This draft will ultimately be judged several years down the road based on how love develops and how successful he is as a starting NFL QB, but ragging on the Packers for taking him, and trading up a few spots to do it, is kind of a strawman argument right now.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 11:56 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1781
adambr2 said:
nodakfan17 said:
I’ve always favored staying put or trading back because some teams inevitably reach and push value down the board. If you’re willing to stay put and draft BPA at #30, you’re probably getting the 25th best player because of the tendency for some teams to draft for need or fall in love with a particular prospect.


I'd agree with this. I don't like moving up unless the value is off the charts and you have pretty fair certainty based on the board and who is ahead of you and their needs that said player won't be available at your spot.

I also don't really agree with the sentiment that you "have intel" that a team will take a player. You might have a pretty good idea about which way a team is leaning but if you truly have intel on who they are picking they did not protect their draft board very well. Teams have a little bit more secrecy around their boards than that, and I'd even take it with a grain of salt if they come out after the fact and say they were going to take a certain player.


What I meant by intel is that teams use other teams' trade offers against each other all the time on draft day. That's just good business. But you are correct that teams also put out smokescreens and get false intel out there. It is possible that the Packers were duped into giving up a 4th rounder when they didn't need to, but I'd be surprised if that were the case, as the organization has proven pretty adept at maximizing personnel value and not making dumb, rash decisions. The story may eventually come out, or it may not.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 11:57 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 13050
Packers should have waited and taken Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of Rodgers

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 1:09 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5791
homer said:
Packers should have waited and taken Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of Rodgers


Or if only Alex Smith had fallen instead of Rodgers...


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 1:35 PM Post
Posts: 21947
CheezWizHed said:
homer said:
Packers should have waited and taken Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of Rodgers


Or if only Alex Smith had fallen instead of Rodgers...


That's a chicken or egg argument too, though. Some believe that had Smith spent 3 years in the Packer system that he may have wound up being the star rather than being immediately forced into action.

If Rodgers had been immediately starting in San Francisco he may not have ended up having the success he did. Coaches...system...receivers...all different.

Just speculating, obviously. Maybe Rodgers does lead San Francisco to multiple Super Bowls. We'll never know.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 1:56 PM Post
Posts: 2073
Aaron Rodgers’ career record: 117-60-1 (66%)
Alex Smith‘a career record: 94-66-1 (59%)

BUT .. if you exclude Smith’s first 3 years in SF (when Rodgers got to sit and learn while Smith trotted out there for a weekly beat down):

Alex Smith’s record becomes: 83-47-1 (63%)

Alex Smith is a very good QB.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 12, 2020, 6:51 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 15121
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Now do stats that actually matter when comparing QBs.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 13, 2020, 12:07 AM Post
Posts: 5127
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Love is still holding a clipboard, and until Rodgers and Tim Boyle are injured to a point they can't play, he'll still be holding a clipboard. Love didn't fall to the 30th pick. Rodgers did fall to our pick. Comparable and huge, huge difference.


I'll mention yet again that NFL football teams do not use the same value system on potential picks as guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay do. This idea that Love didn't "fall" to the Packers is a non-starter. All it takes is the Packers feeling Love fell to them. Also, there was talk leading up to the 2005 draft that if Rodgers were to make it past the first few picks of the first round, he very well could fall. That wasn't a huge surprise.

This draft will ultimately be judged several years down the road based on how love develops and how successful he is as a starting NFL QB, but ragging on the Packers for taking him, and trading up a few spots to do it, is kind of a strawman argument right now.


Ok Love didn't "Fall" without trading up to pick. Rodgers "Fell" all the way to our pick at 24. See, like in the past guys like Nelson, Adams, and Cobb fell to our pick and drafting them just felt like a luxury while not filling the draft needs of the current team. Love is a luxury pick and if they took him at 30 I wouldn't be as upset about it as I am. When I heard them moving up it made perfect sense that they would draft the #1 need on the team and highest value left at MiLB in Patrick Queen. This is in the Realms of doing the Clay Matthews move. Among the LB class it was basically Simmons, Murray, and Queen as 1st rd consensus. Then a gap. Jordyn Brooks happened to go at 27 before Queen at 28 but then the next LB picked wasn't til #60. Queen for a #2 Super Bowl Odds contending team has played around 70+% of all defensive snaps for Baltimore. Brooks on the other hand, hadn't reached 20% yet. You have Franchise Starting Middle LB today, versus groom and hope a franchise QB 3-5years from now. Plain and simple as that. You move up for the Starting 1st rd pick, you let that franchise groom QB fall to you, or that QB is starting for you planning-wise in his rookie season. Queen is a difference maker, look at his advanced stats. 20 targets 15completions. Missed Tackles? 4 while having 42 combined tackles. 8.7%

Kirksey for GB? 10 targets 9 completions. 2 missed tackles 6.9% 27 combined tackles.
Summers 12 targets 12 completions. 4 missed tackles 20% 16 combined tackles
Barnes 8 targets 7 completions 0 missed tackles 0% 25 combined tackles
Greene 2 targets 2 completions 2 missed tackles 15.4% 11 combined tackles
Burks 1 target 1 completion 1 missed tackle 20% 4 combined tackles

A Slam dunk was right there and somehow we 2020'd it.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 13, 2020, 12:24 AM Post
Posts: 4936
No doubt there were questions about Rodgers, by no means was he a perfect prospect. But he was also seen as a consensus top 2 pick just weeks before the draft. So there was absolutely a vast gap in how he was seen and Love was seen as a potential franchise QB.


Again, in a notoriously weak draft class...

And he was seen as "as consensus top 2 pick?" By who? There was a LITTLE question about which QB was gonna go first, though even that is a bit overplayed as Smith was always the favorite, but I sure don't recall anyone saying "Smith and Rodgers are definitely 1-2." He was never a consensus top 2 pick.

Well, that's part of my point. We spent a 2nd round pick on a position where we have two established players. 2nd day picks at that position are almost universally early contributors at least to some degree. It's not a position that you spend an early pick on a developmental year. I think Jones is likely to be re-signed. I don't think Gute is going to let him walk. And if they were planning on it, I think Dillon would be seeing a lot more game action than he is. I thought he would at least be a threat to the playing time of Jamaal Williams, who is not a special player. I don't think it's a great sign that he has less touches than Tyler Ervin.


Two Free Agent Running Backs after this season and an offense that is predicated in large part off how impactful your running game is.

We've played 4 games and Jamaal Williams has been pretty damn good. There's nothing to indicate Dillon is a "developmental" player.
Starting and playing well? He has 31 career snaps.



So...the word WAS...that's not important here? He WAS starting, ie, he was the STARTER and he was playing well. Particularly blocking well(See the Alan Lazard play where he took two guys out of the play).

That was week 1, he got hurt and he's done for the year now. It's not a stretch to say he was starting, that's objectively true. Also don't believe it's a stretch to say he was playing well.

A 3rd round rookie starting at WR or CB is notable...it's common for rookies to contribute immediately at tertiary positions like H back/fullback.


It's just NOT a "tertiary" position in the Packers offense.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 13, 2020, 12:40 AM Post
Posts: 4936
adambr2 said:
CheezWizHed said:
homer said:
Packers should have waited and taken Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of Rodgers


Or if only Alex Smith had fallen instead of Rodgers...


That's a chicken or egg argument too, though. Some believe that had Smith spent 3 years in the Packer system that he may have wound up being the star rather than being immediately forced into action.

If Rodgers had been immediately starting in San Francisco he may not have ended up having the success he did. Coaches...system...receivers...all different.

Just speculating, obviously. Maybe Rodgers does lead San Francisco to multiple Super Bowls. We'll never know.



I've certainly wondered. Mike McCarthy isn't real well regarded now, but he was when he was developing Rodgers and had his "QB School" with Tom Clement. Sitting behind Favre...

I think Smith would have a little more shine and Rodgers very well may have looked like a bust. As it was Rodgers went on IR twice in his first 3 seasons IIRC. A broken foot in '06 after the Pats and I thought there was another injury...one that was likely pretty minor, but as he was the backup, he was put on IR after the breakout Cowboys game. I could be wrong on that one.

I just remember a lot of "China Doll" references when Packers Nation was split after the Favre retirement.


Whatever happens with Rodgers and Love...I hope it's cleaner than the last "breakup" in GB was.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 13, 2020, 7:44 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5791
Yes, I do believe that situations matter, systems, QBs, coaches... but if you are really comparing Alex Smith to Aaron Rodgers as equals... something is wrong here.

Alex Smith was (might still be) a good QB. More than a game manager, but not one you will ride to a SB. And he is no HOF QB. Trying to compare the two is like comparing a souped up Dodge Neon to a Lamborghini.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 13, 2020, 10:14 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 9730
To sum up my thoughts on the recent points made in this thread, briefly:

1)4-5 games is waaaaay to early to grade any draft class.
2)Regarding team needs going into the draft, clearly fans underestimated the talent that was already on the offensive roster, and the Packers viewed that as less of a need than fans did back in May. Thus far, that has graded out in favor of the team's staff.
3)The Packers' offense is moving the ball at will, with their top two receivers out. Why are we still discussing what receiver the could/should have taken at 30? They're fine thus far without whoever that would have been.
4)Regarding LB, I liked Queen a lot too. But I'm also willing to wait for Martin to play a down of football before I assume they didn't address the issue somewhat in the draft. By all accounts, he was turning heads in camp prior to the injury.
5)The Packers are undefeated, and by most accounts are ranked 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in most current NFL power-rankings. What impact would Queen or a WR have had on that thus far? Would they be EVEN MORE undefeated? To my point, thus far the Packers basically conducted a draft based on the seasons coming after 2020, and the 2020 team hasn't missed a beat. The Packers continue to play chess while other teams can't figure out how to play checkers right.
6)One more time for emphasis, 4-5 games is WAAAY too early to judge a draft class. Especially when the team is doing really, really well.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
Posted: October 13, 2020, 11:44 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3176
What I keep thinking about Love, and why I don't mind the pick at all, is that when the QB transition does eventually come in GB, we'll have a new guy who MLF was obviously high on talent-wise and who'll had years learning the system. Plus maybe some high picks if Rodgers is traded. That's sure a lot better than being a team like Jacksonville or Chicago who've been wasting a lot of seasons looking for that next QB. And while great players like Lamar Jackson can be found late, they're still the exception. I view the Love pick as possibly/hopefully saving us 4-7 years of mediocrity post-Rodgers.

Patrick Queen also allowed 12 catches on 16 targets one or two weeks ago, and he's also still overrunning plays. So I'm not quite ready to say we missed out on a Pro Bowl LB just yet. Plus isn't that what Kirksey was signed for, so that LB wasn't a must in the first round?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16  Next  [ 314 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: LouisEly, OldHeidelberg, yourout and 6 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test