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2020 Packers Draft Thread

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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#61

Posted: April 06, 2020, 10:10 PM Post
Posts: 1977
I did the draft simulator and came up with the following:

1. J. Jones- OT
2. C. Claypool- WR
3. T. Biadasz-OL
4. L. Bowden- WR
5. T. Muse- S/LB
6. L. Jackson- CB
7. J. Kelley- RB
8. R. Williams- DL
9. J. Runyan- OT
10. R. Windsor-DL

I went a little Big Ten heavy probably. I also think they will consolidate a pick or two to trade up.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#62

Posted: April 07, 2020, 3:29 AM Post
Posts: 4200
I like the Runyan pick. He can line up at either guard or tackle.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#63

Posted: April 07, 2020, 7:43 AM Post
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I did one simulation with the premise that someone would trade up for a QB at the end of the 1st round.... then I realized that there are no QBs really slated to be drafted there. Sure, someone else could move up, but QB is a big incentive given the 5th year contract.

The more I see the draft, the more I expect the Packers to pick an OT in the first round (or their first pick). That might change if Mims or Queen drop to them, but otherwise it seems like OT is the value pick there.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#64

Posted: April 07, 2020, 7:48 AM Post
Posts: 1977
CheezWizHed said:

The more I see the draft, the more I expect the Packers to pick an OT in the first round (or their first pick). That might change if Mims or Queen drop to them, but otherwise it seems like OT is the value pick there.


I am really high on Jones and would be thrilled if he made it that far.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#65

Posted: April 07, 2020, 1:37 PM Post
Posts: 2286
One really underrated aspect in gaging prospects for Packers. Gute is very high on players with high Relevant Athletic Scores (RAS). He has actually only drafted three players who had sub par scores (Jamaal Williams, Cole Madison, & Jace Sternberger). It scales 0-10.

Out of 28 picks
16 scored 9.0 or higher
5 scored 8.0 to 8.99
3 scored 7.2 to 7.99
3 scored 4.55- 5.24
1. Couldn’t find JK Scott

2017
King 9.95, J. Jones 9.29, M. Adams 7.89, Biegel 8.83, J. Williams 4.55, D Yancy 9.07, A Jones 9.22, K Amichia 9.8, D Mays 7.69, M Dupree 7.2

2018
Alexander 9.54, J. Jackson 9.27, O Burns 9.73, J Moore 8.84, C Madison 4.59, Scott NA, MVS 9.27, EQ St. Brown 9.84, J Looney 9.75, K. Donnerson 9.89

2019
R Gary 9.95, D Savage 8.35, E Jenkins 9.34, Sternberger 5.24, K. Keke 8.02, K Hollman 9.27, D. Williams 8.17, T Summers 9.71

I never knew or thought about it until I was debating about Higgins & my buddy informed me, he simply isn’t a Gute guy. He isn’t the kind of athlete he targets. Higgins is a 4.2 RAS I believe. So went back & researched a lot on it & it is clearly a strong trend for Gute. So now when I go through & do my rankings & projections I mostly only look at guys over 7.5 RAS. Helps narrow down the field of who I think they will be high on. With 90% of his picks being over 7.2 ( two lowest 7.0’s were 7th round picks, M Adams was a 7.9) Id expect that to continue.


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Online  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#66

Posted: April 07, 2020, 1:47 PM Post
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Wasn't 2017 the last Ted draft, not Gute?


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#67

Posted: April 07, 2020, 2:53 PM Post
Posts: 2286
When talking Tackles we are pretty safe to assume Thomas, Wirfs, Wills, and Becton will be off board by then. All are high RAS guys as well. People are all over the board after the top 4 tackles but it is a deep class. Ezra Cleveland is a guy I could see Packers loving. He has the 9.93 RAS which is incredible. Great size at 6’6 310. Great fit for outside zone. He’s been flying up boards lately which makes me think 30 is not a stretch. Or a trade back into early 2nd.

However, he does give off Spraggs vibes to me which cools my interest. Like Spraggs he is a fantastic athlete (Spraggs was 9.73 RAS) but like Spraggs a big knock is he struggles verse power. He really needs to improve in that area.

This OT class is very fun to study & follow with lot of options.
In Day 2 a lot of options.

Niang is a 1st round talent but injury & not testing hurt stock. Strong & athletic kid.

Prince Tega Wanogha another really good athletic tackle who injuries knee that cost him senior bowl & Combine. Then Covid cost him a pro day. All that could drop him down to Packers. Believe he would have tested very well. Basketball background & very smooth.

Saahdiq Charles Has had off field issue & did not fully participate in combine & no pro day. Missing 6 games due to suspension hurt but has high ceiling & is consider strong in mobility & working in space.

High RAS options
Austin Jackson (9.47), Matt Peart (9.03), Jack Driscoll (8.89), H. Adeniji (7.82), and I. Wilson (7.23)

I really like Austin Jackson and think in 2nd round that would be a solid pick. Wilson is a big boy at 350lbs but moves very well for size. Tough to see him fitting in an outside zone offense though.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#68

Posted: April 07, 2020, 3:03 PM Post
Posts: 2286
PeaveyFury said:
Wasn't 2017 the last Ted draft, not Gute?


You are correct. Got that mixed up. If you go back further To 2012 when Gute took over as director of College Scouting & then 2016 as Director of Player Personal. Packers have continued to put high value on RAS. He was one of TT’s top guys. I got some free time so I’ll get the trend down on paper & type it up. I’m fascinated by this revelation


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Online  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#69

Posted: April 07, 2020, 3:12 PM Post
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Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#70

Posted: April 07, 2020, 4:14 PM Post
Posts: 2286
Went back trend is more from 2015-2019 drafts.

2019: 7 of 8 were 7.0 or higher
4-9.0, 3-8.0, 1-5.0

2018: 8 of 9 were 7.0 or higher
7-9.0, 1-8.0, 1-4.0

2017: 9 of 10 were 7.0 or higher
5-9.0, 1-8.0, 3-7.0, 1-4.0

2016: 5 of 7 were 7.0 or higher
2-9.0, 1-8.0, 2-7.0, 1-6.0 1-NA

2015: 6 of 8 were 7.0 or higher
1-9.0, 3-8.0, 2-7.0, 1-6.0, 1-5.0

Before that much more all over the board. Just think it is an interesting scouting trend that can be used to assess fit with Packers and part of what they are looking for. Of course it doesn’t include what they do on field. We know Packers also care a lot about versatility especially on the line. They also value length on perimeter.

As for the trade down, depending on how the board falls. There are some guys I’d jump on if there at 30 but most may be off board by then. Mims & Jefferson at WR & Queen & Murray at MLB are 4 that could still be there. If any are, hard to pass on. Other than that Houston trade would be great to do!


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#71

Posted: April 07, 2020, 4:58 PM Post
Posts: 5249
PeaveyFury said:
Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?


Move back 10 spots, and get the 3rd pick #90 of the 3rd round. Nope, they should pay more for the 1st round control GB is giving up. I might have to ask for both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175. There just has to be more gotten in return to move out of the 1st round than just a low 3rd pick

Pairing 90 and 94 has a #65value. Otherwise you're staring at a "deep draft" with only 2 picks at 40&62 followed by 90/94. That's a lot of hope and a prayer to wait til 90 for that depth to fall on to your laps.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#72

Posted: April 08, 2020, 8:58 AM Post
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I don't care for moving down if we end up with fewer picks (i.e. both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175.). I did a draft simulation with the Houstanr #40/#90 for our #30 and there were a lot of nice players still at #90, while still having OTs Jones/Cleveland available at #40. That would be an ideal situation in my opinion.

Of course, that all depends on who is available at #30 at the time. If Mims, Queens or someone else drops down, I wouldn't trade down. If QB Love falls to us, we should demand a high cost trade down scenario from someone (like Indianapolis).

This year, having more lower picks is going to be important due to the lack of Pro Days for most players. I think we will see a lot of sleepers come late in the draft.


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Online  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#73

Posted: April 08, 2020, 9:49 AM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?


Move back 10 spots, and get the 3rd pick #90 of the 3rd round. Nope, they should pay more for the 1st round control GB is giving up. I might have to ask for both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175. There just has to be more gotten in return to move out of the 1st round than just a low 3rd pick

Pairing 90 and 94 has a #65value. Otherwise you're staring at a "deep draft" with only 2 picks at 40&62 followed by 90/94. That's a lot of hope and a prayer to wait til 90 for that depth to fall on to your laps.


What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#74

Posted: April 08, 2020, 9:52 AM Post
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I'm all about extra assets.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#75

Posted: April 08, 2020, 10:50 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.

First round picks have a fifth year option, second round picks don't - they are only controlled for four years. Moving down into the second round means losing the value of that fifth year option.

I think many of these draft value charts were established before this was in the collective bargaining agreement, and thus underestimate the difference in value between a late 1st round pick and an early 2nd round pick.


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Online  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#76

Posted: April 08, 2020, 10:52 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
PeaveyFury said:
What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.

First round picks have a fifth year option, second round picks don't - they are only controlled for four years. Moving down into the second round means losing the value of that fifth year option.

I think many of these draft value charts were established before this was in the collective bargaining agreement, and thus underestimate the difference in value between a late 1st round pick and an early 2nd round pick.


I don't think that is as prevalent as you might think. If you're using one from a source that currently covers the draft, it should be factored in.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#77

Posted: April 08, 2020, 12:31 PM Post
Posts: 9
paul253 said:
Haven’t been following this thread so I apologize if this is already been posted but if you’re looking to kill some time you can have some fun with the draft simulator.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/mock-draft-machine


I ran about 10 simulations. I was able to select Murray or Queen in 9 of 10 mocks. None of the WR fell to #30.

However, in one mock, Herbert fell to the Packers 2nd round pick. I took him, but felt it wasn't a good overall draft since I missed on most of the WR talent.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#78

Posted: April 08, 2020, 6:21 PM Post
Posts: 5249
PeaveyFury said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?


Move back 10 spots, and get the 3rd pick #90 of the 3rd round. Nope, they should pay more for the 1st round control GB is giving up. I might have to ask for both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175. There just has to be more gotten in return to move out of the 1st round than just a low 3rd pick

Pairing 90 and 94 has a #65value. Otherwise you're staring at a "deep draft" with only 2 picks at 40&62 followed by 90/94. That's a lot of hope and a prayer to wait til 90 for that depth to fall on to your laps.


What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.


About the first one I'd seen when googled.
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculat ... -value.php

The value obviously comes out in GB's favor. I just don't believe all trades are of equal value. Houston doesn't have a 1st round pick. They'd lose their 2 twos to have 2 threes and 2 5s. It's something reasonable to maybe believe they'd do. Essentially they moved up while gaining 1 draft pick.

Personally I think if GB moves back from the first round we're looking at maybe for a QB that's fallen and wanted(Jordan Love) or say RB with WI Jonathon Taylor.
Looking at early 2nd round choices the Colts have the 2nd pick in 2nd round to move up to select a QB. Wouldn't be much dropped back but you'd have an overnight to get a feel for what's going to be selected ahead of your choice, what is left over atop your board and maybe how far back you could move based on what you think the next 3-10 picks are shaping up as being.
The Chargers make sense on a move up from their 2nd rd pick to draft a QB(ideally they've moved back and not selected Tua) Pair up that 2nd rd pick with one of the picks they maybe got from the 1st round trade down(a late 3rd choice ideally or GB would have to send something back SD's way.

As LouisEly mentioned, I think trade value sites are ignoring the 1st round control. Maybe somewhere there could be an agreement on what that value is worth. The fact #32 is valued at 590 and #33(1st) in 2nd is valued at 580 shows just that. Maybe values where the draft pick trade down involves moving out of first and trading up from below 1st round should be like 50pts addition needed. Looking back from 2017 the Browns trade for 29 for 33 a trade value site would give GB a +20 only on the move down. So based on that I'm off but it is something to maybe question Football GMs on the subject.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#79

Posted: April 09, 2020, 12:59 AM Post
Posts: 5249
Going over the Packers selections and it would really seem to me that they will trade down out of the 1st round. This draft seems to be deep at WR but also OT I'm reading.(WalterFB has 18WR top 4Rd grade vs 14 and 13OT top 4 grade vs 10last season) I think GB would want 4 shots at this depth in the 1st 3 rounds vs just 3. All of their draft picks except the 1st 6th round pick are extremely late in the rounds. That basically means low trade capitol or blowing a draft pick in the following round to move up less than 12 spots. My guess would be moving down in to 2nd. Taking their 5th and early 6th to move in to bottom of 4th or early 5th round. Just draft the late 6th and 7th round choices. You hope to get a WR/ILB/OT with 3 of the first 4 picks you now have in top 3 rounds. Nab 2 guys late in 4th round that is left high on your draft board that fell. 6/7 rounds just much the same either your draft board BPA or you fill out some ST.

6picks during rds 2,3,and 4.
Trying to target what the draft order is currently and draft capitol there's not much in way of matching up or ideal sense. I'd have to assume where the trade comes from will be from the multiple teams who trade down ahead of GB's pick that use the capitol to trade up to GB's selection in the 1st rd. Jacksonville is who I'm going to target in this. Have #9, 20, and 42. Have a Lot of needs, QB included in them. Move down from 9 however they like. Use 42nd pick plus a pick from that trade(mid 3rd) or late 3rd plus #116. Jordan Love or Jacob Eason seem like the extra year control QBs who will be around at 30 with bordeline 1st rd pick grades. Jaguars will have added 3 1st rd choices for the future and WR/QB pairing could be 2 of them.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Packers Draft Thread
#80

Posted: April 09, 2020, 2:34 PM Post
Posts: 1042
I don't think that 5th year is as big a deal as I thought it would be when they added it. For guys at the end of the 1st round it is hit or miss whether it will be picked up, it is a pretty expensive year, and for a QB if he pans out as a blue chipper you will be looking at a big time extension by then anyway. I think it sometimes puts GM's in a bad position of choosing between giving a mediocre player(Trubisky!) a huge one year deal or conceding that he blew the pick. It helps that you can delay extending guys like Clark and HaHa for a year but that's about the best you get out of it, like I say the really good players are going to get bigger extensions anyway or would be franchised without the 5th year anyway.


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