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2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:04 AM Post
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From twitter:

The decisions with Rodgers are rather simply laid out in 2022:

1 - Keep Rodgers with a cap hit of $40M, with cheap Jordan Love on the bench.

2 - Trade Rodgers, free up $22.65M of cap space, while taking $17.2M dead cap.

3 - Trade Jordan Love and start the QB search over.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:15 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Rodgers sat the entirety of the first 3 years of his 5 year rookie contract. He most certainly would have sat a fourth year had Favre not been a retirement drama queen. What would have the Packers done before year 5? Who knows, but sitting 3 or even 4 years is not a shocking possibility. Patriots willingly let Jimmy G sit until they had to trade him.

I also don't think the Packers can release Rodgers until the final year. The third year out of the four still has a huge cap hit, the fourth is pretty minor. I would say the odds Rodgers isn't here the next three years are less than 10%.


I was wondering about that but hadn't looked it up yet, trading is like releasing and the Packer have to clear cap room to do it. But it's the bonus money that accelerates onto the cap, the rest of the hit goes to the other team with him. My guess would be they could trade him after year 2 of the 4 year deal, they may have to redo some other contracts but they could make it work. If the prorated bonus hit started 2 years ago it could be sooner.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft 7pm Thurs April 23rd Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:20 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Hope for the immediate future?
Immediate and long term future would have been Queen. Probably 7-10year Starter today(over Burks)
Immediate future would have been any top WR on your board at 30.
Immediate future would have been the top OT you have on your board.

Heres what the immediate future is. Is GB a playoff team? Detroit has a lockdown CB for Adams for as long as Rodgers and he is on the team
.
Minnesota did so too with Gladney and picked up a top WR target who immediate plays. They now have 6more picks to add to immediate to GBs 2 before GB picks in the 5th round.(7th pick immediately after)
That makes winning the division questionable for the immediate future.

SF who embarrassed GB twice in different ways last season improved with a top talent WR and a top talent DE to pair with Bosa. Bahktiari cant block both.
Now, they only have 3more late picks in this draft, but were -2 on immediate help and have 2 most likely chances remaining for immediate help.

Kirksey replaces Martinez and Wagner replaces Bulaga but both are lower graded players last season than what Blake and Bryan gave.

I think your idea on immediate is different than mine. My feelings on immediate future 9win teams for the next 4seasons. Playoff hopeful.


Hope for the present and future because we have a GM in place who isn't going to play into fan lip service. Did it occur to you that perhaps the Packers didn't have the same type of grade on Queen that you seem to?

Detroit is going to eventually back their way into good players because they are consistently terrible and drafting at the top of the 1st round. The Vikings drafted a solid receiver ... one I like a lot. But Gladney profiles as a nickel corner, and their CB room is a dumpster fire right now. Do you honestly think the Vikings will be able to slow down the Packers' offense with Gladney and Mike Hughes/Holton Hill manning the boundaries?

Yeah, I have hope for the immediate and long-term future, because the Packers seemingly have smart, gutsy personnel people in place. Could it blow up on them? Sure. But it stands just as good of a chance of working out.


Well good to know the Vikings won't draft a single help there with the 12 picks they have remaining, 7more through the 5th round. 58, 89, 105 today. With 9 picks below. More than enough ammo to move up and grab. I dunno 2 CB/S who had 1st/2nd round grades.
Nfl.com has 7 of those types available still in the top 50draft class ranks.


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Online  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:24 AM Post
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Just to be clear, a large number of draft choices just means an opportunity to draft players that will fill holes, not a guarantee.

Also, the Vikings would have had 7 more picks through the fifth round regardless of what the Packers did yesterday, just for the record.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:30 AM Post
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OldHeidelberg said:
MrTPlush said:
Rodgers sat the entirety of the first 3 years of his 5 year rookie contract. He most certainly would have sat a fourth year had Favre not been a retirement drama queen. What would have the Packers done before year 5? Who knows, but sitting 3 or even 4 years is not a shocking possibility. Patriots willingly let Jimmy G sit until they had to trade him.

I also don't think the Packers can release Rodgers until the final year. The third year out of the four still has a huge cap hit, the fourth is pretty minor. I would say the odds Rodgers isn't here the next three years are less than 10%.


I was wondering about that but hadn't looked it up yet, trading is like releasing and the Packer have to clear cap room to do it. But it's the bonus money that accelerates onto the cap, the rest of the hit goes to the other team with him. My guess would be they could trade him after year 2 of the 4 year deal, they may have to redo some other contracts but they could make it work. If the prorated bonus hit started 2 years ago it could be sooner.


I guess I don't see how Love is going to push Rodgers out in the next three years...especially when we would take some kind of financial hit to rid ourselves of Rodgers. I am no financial contract expert for the NFL though.

Seems pretty simple we are rolling with Rodgers for the next three years with (in theory) a great backup QB option. They could then move on from Rodgers in the 4th year where I think the financial hit is pretty irrelevant (I think)...or just keep rolling with him.

Only way I think Rodgers is gone before that 4th year is if he is injured a huge amount of time where Love looks like the greatest show on turf. Going to doubt that happens though. If healthy either Rodgers is so good there is literally no reason to move on from him or he is simply "good" and trading him would be pretty hard to do given his contract/status with the team. I doubt they would take a big financial hit and get a bag of balls in return just to see what Love is earlier than that.


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Online  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:33 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Just to be clear, a large number of draft choices just means an opportunity to draft players that will fill holes, not a guarantee.

Also, the Vikings would have had 7 more picks through the fifth round regardless of what the Packers did yesterday, just for the record.


Exactly! You can never, ever speak in absolutes when it comes to the NFL draft. The whole reason the Vikings CB is the dumpster fire it is is because they declined to a gaggle of recent high picks at that spot, including Rhodes, Waynes and Alexander. Using the assumption that the Vikings will make good personnel decisions to add credence to an argument is kind of a losing battle.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:37 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Just to be clear, a large number of draft choices just means an opportunity to draft players that will fill holes, not a guarantee.

Also, the Vikings would have had 7 more picks through the fifth round regardless of what the Packers did yesterday, just for the record.


My theory is that the draft is such an inexact science that more bites at the apple gives you a better chance of getting lucky.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:44 AM Post
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homer said:
PeaveyFury said:
Just to be clear, a large number of draft choices just means an opportunity to draft players that will fill holes, not a guarantee.

Also, the Vikings would have had 7 more picks through the fifth round regardless of what the Packers did yesterday, just for the record.


My theory is that the draft is such an inexact science that more bites at the apple gives you a better chance of getting lucky.


I think this is a very fair theory. But I do think some teams are undeniably better at it than others.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:51 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I didn't like the pick and I didn't like trading a fourth round pick as part of the pick.

Lots of comparisons between the Rodgers pick and the Love pick but there is one huge difference. Rodgers was a consensus top 5 pick that slid all the way into the 20's. On Arif Hasan's last consensus board, Love was #35. Love is a very risky pick because there is huge upside with him and huge downside. Patrick Queen probably was the safest pick, I don't think he has nearly as much upside as Kenneth Murray but I think the bust factor on Queen is less than players like Love and Denzel Mims. To me Love and Mims seem to be pretty similar in that each sure look like boom-or-bust candidates. I'm 100% behind picking for value when the value is there, it seems like there is enough of a bust-factor associated with Love where I don't like the idea of using picks #30 and #136 on him when he doesn't address an immediate need.

The guy I ended up liking the most that was still available at #30 is Ezra Cleveland. It will be interesting to see where he gets picked. McGinn has him as a 1/2, ESPN have him as the #3 player who hasn't been picked yet, but was only #54 on Hasan's consensus board. I would have looked to have traded down from #30, hope that Cleveland or Xavier McKinney (who would be very hard to pass up as a value pick once past...say...pick #35) make it down to the new spot...and still have the fallback option knowing that there will still likely be 2-3 receivers from that "second tier still available even down at #40 (Higgins, Mims, Shenualt, Pittman, Hamler all still available).

One thing that I am pleased about is that Jordyn Brooks is off the board. Read McGinn's write-up on him and he sure sound like one of those big and fast guys that has zero instincts and isn't exactly the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree either. I had been thinking he'd be the prime target for Gutekunst to trade about 3 picks to move up in round two and take. Thankfully he is off the board.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 10:41 AM Post
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When we drafted Rodgers, Favre was entering his age 36 season with zero missed career starts.

Now, Rodgers is entering his age 37 season with 18 career missed starts plus a number where he was limited by injury.

Timing seems fine to me, especially if they believe Love was their best chance of getting a future QB over the next couple two tree years.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 11:20 AM Post
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If the club thinks that Rodgers doesn't have that many years left, then kudos to them for being bold with their planning. Love can spend a couple of years learning the system and understanding what he needs to do - and then we can move on from Aaron.

Of course, Rodgers says he wants to finish out his contract (four more years) and maybe longer. I guess we will see what happens.

To me, one of the big questions is just how much Rodgers has slipped as a player. His numbers have been down, and he doesn't look as good as in the past. However, how much of that is a lack of support in the receiving game. I'm guessing it's a combination of both lesser players and diminishing skills.

But hey, we won 13 games last year. Yes, we had some luck, but that's not easy to do in the NFL.

I honestly don't think there's a 'right' answer to all of this. Adding Love is a bold and long term decision AND adding Love means we don't add another player who could help us immediately (or players since we sent our 4th away in the trade). Those things are both legitimate scenarios.

I think it's okay to be frustrated by the move - and/or heartened by it. There's nothing wrong with that.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 11:31 AM Post
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Jordan Love will wear #10 for the Packers.

Darrius Shepherd must have been reassigned #9.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 11:41 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I don't have a problem with the timing. It's pretty clear that Rodgers skills have started to dip (especially in terms of consistency with his accuracy). Every year he becomes more and more of an injury risk. I just question if Love has the same value that the Packers put on him. They obviously think very highly of him. Reports are that he has great physical skills but has all sorts of question marks as well. If he was a consensus top 15 pick, then I would love that that Packers took him. I just don't think his grade makes him stand out from many other players that would have had the added benefit of filling a position of need.

As reilly just said, there is no right answer because nobody has that magical crystal ball. If Love turns out to be the next Mahomes, then Gutekunst is the smartest guy in the room. If Love busts and some of these other guys turn inot really good players, then Gutekunst is the dumbest guy in the room. Time will tell.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 11:52 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
homer said:
PeaveyFury said:
Just to be clear, a large number of draft choices just means an opportunity to draft players that will fill holes, not a guarantee.

Also, the Vikings would have had 7 more picks through the fifth round regardless of what the Packers did yesterday, just for the record.


My theory is that the draft is such an inexact science that more bites at the apple gives you a better chance of getting lucky.


I think this is a very fair theory. But I do think some teams are undeniably better at it than others.


The data that I'm too lazy to look up though, is very clear and compelling, that when it comes to QB, your hit rate is MUCH higher in the first round than others.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 11:58 AM Post
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I’ve warmed up to the pick today, but am still skeptical. By many accounts, he was the best player available on the board and it was conviction pick by the GM. I can live with it. Plus, if we’re being honest with ourselves, what’s the hit rate on Packers’ first round picks since XLV? 30%?


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Online  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 12:00 PM Post
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Great to see folks arguing about sports.

Thought number 2- Gary Anderson owes the state of Wisconsin so this better work.


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Online  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 12:17 PM Post
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Thought this was interesting. Bakhtiari would know Rodgers better than any of the draftniks or commentators. If he says this is going to light a fire under him, I'm inclined to believe him.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/draft-a-thon/ ... be-on-fire

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 1:08 PM Post
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igor67 said:
Great to see folks arguing about sports.

Thought number 2- Gary Anderson owes the state of Wisconsin so this better work.


It really is amazing how many articles I've seen mention that Love was hindered by a head coach change as well as losing 9 offensive starters between his junior & senior year...

...without naming the head coach as the guy who quit on the Badgers to go to Oregon State.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 1:17 PM Post
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All things considered I thought the broadcast was pretty decent last night. I would have preferred the fans behind Goodell to be live but I can see why they didn't do that. Better to just not have them at all, IMO.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: 2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion
Posted: April 24, 2020, 1:27 PM Post
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homer said:
All things considered I thought the broadcast was pretty decent last night. I would have preferred the fans behind Goodell to be live but I can see why they didn't do that. Better to just not have them at all, IMO.

As reinforced by the children of the team's general managers last night, people jump at the opportunity to be on television in any way. To give the impression that they could be on TV if they engage with the platforms increases engagement with the platforms.


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