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2020 Miscellaneous NFL News

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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 8:14 AM Post
Posts: 2262
I learned elsewhere online that Ryan Tannehill is already 32. I would have guessed 28 or 29, but he was drafted in 2012. And then when I went down the Wikipedia rabbit hole, I was reminded that Mike Sherman coached Tannehill at Texas A&M and played him at WR until his senior year. There’s another guy who probably would probably have benefited from sitting his rookie year.


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Online  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 9:13 AM Post
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Jets released Le'Veon Bell. What a dumpster fire of an organization that is.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 9:24 AM Post
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Adam Gase was a horrible hire and should be right behind Bell.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 9:42 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
I'd generally be curious on the math on some of those formulas too. Top of my head guess here we go. First, their odds to win were already so high that it was tough to improve them. The chance for the TD happening also goes up by kicking the FG because Seattle gets 30ish yds more of field position and the chance to run the kick back. Combine that with the slim chance of missing the FG, blocked FG, etc and I see how it could balance out.

ETA: what they showed was they were already at 94 going into the play. Making FG keeps them at 94. missing drops to like 80. Getting the 1st goes to 99.9.

Also, if you didn't notice the hole to the right was a wide open TD but the RB missed it.

I don't think it's a formula. I think that the three outcomes aren't compared to each other, but to historical outcomes. They posted three outcomes that showed:
1. Historically, a team that has the ball, up by 5, with a 4th and 1 with two minutes left, wins the game 94% of the time.
2. Then, they are saying, historically, a team up by 8, playing defense, with two minutes left, wins the game 94% of the time as well.
3. Third, a team up by 5, playing defense, with two minutes left, wins the game 79% of the time.

Not sure if field position plays into it.

It's a statement about each situation against historical averages. I think it's a little dishonest of them to say that the percentage drops by 15% if they do one action over the other. It took the "Stopped" outcome, and assumed that Seattle had the ball with two minutes left and a 5pt deficit, then says, in that situation, the Vikings had a 79% chance of winning the game. Using historical outcomes to predict future. If I flip a coin 8 times, and it comes up heads every time, the chance of the next flip is still 50/50, even if I think tails are "due." The first 8 flips have nothing to do with the ninth.

Let's face it, probability aside, the Vikings chances of winning dropped from 79% to 0.0% when they missed on the 4th and 1. Probability doesn't take into account that it's still the Vikings.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 9:53 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
Jets released Le'Veon Bell. What a dumpster fire of an organization that is.


I really think this is yet another example of why large second-contract deals to RBs don't work out well in today's league, and why I don't think the Packers will resign Jones. Bell is obviously a weird case based on his history, but there's a reason why guys like Gordon and Gurley weren't resigned by the teams that drafted them high in the draft.


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Online  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 10:05 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
jerichoholicninja said:
Jets released Le'Veon Bell. What a dumpster fire of an organization that is.


I really think this is yet another example of why large second-contract deals to RBs don't work out well in today's league, and why I don't think the Packers will resign Jones. Bell is obviously a weird case based on his history, but there's a reason why guys like Gordon and Gurley weren't resigned by the teams that drafted them high in the draft.


I think the majority of people who aren't NFL running backs or media talking heads understand this.


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Online  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 11:00 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Actually Gurley is another example too. He got resigned by the Rams to a 4/60 deal. And subsequent running backs like Gordon used that as an example as how they should be paid too. When the reality was that contract almost immediately turned out bad for the Rams and proved as an example as to why those RBs shouldn't get those contracts.

To the Vikings to 0. Well they did have to convert at least two 4th downs on that drive, one I think 4th and 10 and the other that was the TD and a very difficult play. But yea, I know which way I'd bet vs Wilson. Which is why I think go for it was right, it's over then. Other option is he gets the ball on the 30, making the TD almost the exact same likelihood in people like us who have that vibe that Wilson is always coming through (technically higher since he's 25 yds closer). So then it comes to the 2pt or not. I'd rather just end it right there. 4th and 1s are converted like 2/3 times and they were running just fine.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on October 14, 2020, 11:06 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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Online  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 11:02 AM Post
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My brain understands we shouldn't but my heart says otherwise... [sad]


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Online  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 11:15 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
maybe there's a middle ground with him too. It doesn't have to be rookie level money vs 15/mil per year. And as all teams know this I can't believe anyone is going to give a ridiculous 4/60 type deal. So if others aren't going above 8-10/yr and packers at least get close to it maybe he just says in GB. Logic being he's in a winning team and he's in a situation to keep doing well as opposed to going to some team, doing poorly and getting released (thus not getting the full contract). Heck, he might come out better in GB because barring injury he'll probably do better and play out the contract. But I also get this is his one payday and he has to get all he can, can't blame the guy.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 1:02 PM Post
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Pretty sure if the NFL didn't announce this no one would have even noticed they didn't play the 2021 Pro Bowl.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl- ... 2022-game/


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 1:33 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
Adam Gase was a horrible hire and should be right behind Bell.

Gase should've been ahead of him.

$35 million guaranteed for 17 games. Such a Jets thing to do.


Last edited by PinaMadness on October 14, 2020, 2:21 PM, edited 1 time in total.

"You're not going to have him when you want him and you're going to run out of games. He can't pitch 90 games. It's just not going to work. If anyone thinks it's going to work, show me how."- Craig Counsell on Josh Hader.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 1:33 PM Post
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Melvin Gordon charged with DUI and speeding.

"You're not going to have him when you want him and you're going to run out of games. He can't pitch 90 games. It's just not going to work. If anyone thinks it's going to work, show me how."- Craig Counsell on Josh Hader.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 2:37 PM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
My brain understands we shouldn't but my heart says otherwise... [sad]


How does your heart feel about just tagging him for 10 million next year?

Tag him, let Jamal walk and you've got thunder and lightening?

I don't really understand how they can even be thinking about signing both Jones AND Bahk to deals anywhere near what both of them have "earned."

Then you're almost certainly letting King and Linsley walk...right?


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Online  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 14, 2020, 8:39 PM Post
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Yeah, Bahk has to be the priority. Playing as well as Jones at a far more critical position that is harder to find replacements.

I've already given up on King and Linsley based on priorities. A tag on Jones might work. But I wouldn't feel too bad about a small deal for Williams and breaking in Dillon.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 15, 2020, 4:33 AM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
Yeah, Bahk has to be the priority. Playing as well as Jones at a far more critical position that is harder to find replacements.

I've already given up on King and Linsley based on priorities. A tag on Jones might work. But I wouldn't feel too bad about a small deal for Williams and breaking in Dillon.



Yeah, Bahk's a no-brainer.

I guess it's more about Jones vs Linsley AND King.

How good do we think King is? I still really don't know. He's physical and a willing tackler..but he also gets banged up. He's good at playing the ball, but he also gets beat when he's too aggressive.

For a team that's likely going to be paying one CB upward of 20 million per year in the not too distant future(assuming the current trajectory)...maybe if he takes 4/36 and 12-ish guaranteed?
And Corey Linsley...I think he's definitely gone, but man, he's been SOOO good and so incredibly steady. He's probably the most underrated player on the Packers. But with Patrick and Jenkins both capable of playing Center...
I think if anything, Hanson, Stepaniak and of course Runyan, the writing is on the wall there.


I hope the Packers show a Saints like commitment to finish up the Rodges era with the most talent they can possibly put together and keep everyone they need. Nobody wants to see that season when you're force to nuke your team to get out of cap hell...but I also dont' want to see 35 years of HOF QB play and just one Ring for each.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 15, 2020, 6:30 AM Post
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I think Bahk is both the priority and the player more likely to sign a team-friendly deal for 2021 at least. They'll need some cap maneuverability, and it seems plausible that he'll accept a deal that may be more roster bonus heavy than base heavy. Jones is more likely to want to get paid, as he should considering the current lifespan of a NFL RB.

Very much agreed on Linsley- not sure how they'd be able to keep him, but I'd love it if they do. He's been rock solid in the middle for them.

King, meh. I love his potential, and the idea of having two pretty solid corners (with Jaire obviously MORE than solid), but you have to stay on the field to do so. If they can bring him back cheap, sure. But they can't commit large dollars in a cap crunch year to a guy that just doesn't contribute every week since he's on the sideline so much.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 15, 2020, 7:18 AM Post
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I wonder if there's a bigger desire to re-sign Bakh just on the idea of having a likely HOFer play his whole career in GB.


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Online  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 15, 2020, 7:21 AM Post
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Atlanta had to shutdown due to 4 positive Covid tests. They are definitely going to use that 18th week.

Edit: Now it's just one person. They could still play this week. Adam Schefter lied to me.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 15, 2020, 7:30 AM Post
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GAME05 said:
I wonder if there's a bigger desire to re-sign Bakh just on the idea of having a likely HOFer play his whole career in GB.

I think that’s a tiny intangible that probably doesn’t factor a whole lot into the actual decision. I’m pretty confident they’ll extend Bakhtiari, but I’m prepared to move on from Jones, Linsley, and King. Realistically, I think they can only sign one of those ‘Big 4’ free agents. They’ll likely need to cut and re-structure just to keep one.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Miscellaneous NFL News
Posted: October 15, 2020, 7:48 AM Post
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I can't imagine we would put extra care in resigning someone because they are a likely future HOF lineman...I mean...could people possibly care less about a position? If they were in the business of having a guy have an entire HOF career in the organization it would be Aaron Rodgers. Seeing as we selected Jordan Love I don't think the Packers give any care to lifelong GB careers.

I love Jones, but I don't see how we should ever consider giving him a huge extension. We can't be spending that kind of money when we are already cash strapped. To me drafting Dillon was a pretty clear sign we weren't going to chase after resigning Jones for big money. If we were why would we waste a high pick on a backup RB...especially after using our first pick on a guy who was going to sit around on the bench for years?


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