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Packers 2020 team discussion

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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 23, 2020, 7:23 AM Post
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PSmith won't be tradeable this offseason. If the Packers aren't finding him useful, I really doubt anyone else will. He also has a $4M bonus due the 3rd league day of the NFL season. So they wouldn't have much time to trade him.

But Smith's struggles aren't just this year either. The last 6 games of the season last year, he only tallied 2 sacks (granted, he had 2 sacks against the Seahawks). but he really dropped off after his torrid start. Looking more like the first 10 games of last year were the career aberration.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 24, 2020, 11:26 AM Post
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James Bettcher could be an interesting candidate also if the team wants to keep the 3-4. Three strong years in AZ before two rough ones in NY. Taking a Spagnuolo type of "gap year" this year. Historically plays quite a bit of cover-1 press coverage with heavy blitzing.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 24, 2020, 3:38 PM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
PSmith won't be tradeable this offseason. If the Packers aren't finding him useful, I really doubt anyone else will. He also has a $4M bonus due the 3rd league day of the NFL season. So they wouldn't have much time to trade him.

But Smith's struggles aren't just this year either. The last 6 games of the season last year, he only tallied 2 sacks (granted, he had 2 sacks against the Seahawks). but he really dropped off after his torrid start. Looking more like the first 10 games of last year were the career aberration.



Ok, how many pressures did he have over those 6 games? What was his win rate? Saying he had 2 sacks over the last 6 games(And then 2 more in the playoffs) tells me almost nothing about him as a pass rusher.


And of course, I disagree with the statement that he won't be tradeable. We're 5 games into the season, he's 27 years old and had12 sacks and 55 pressures a year ago and he'd cost ~2/22 for any team acquiring him. I think the idea he went from an extremely reliable edge rusher to one of the better ones in the leagues to untradeable in a year is a little....over the top.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 24, 2020, 3:46 PM Post
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balsamlaker said:
James Bettcher could be an interesting candidate also if the team wants to keep the 3-4. Three strong years in AZ before two rough ones in NY. Taking a Spagnuolo type of "gap year" this year. Historically plays quite a bit of cover-1 press coverage with heavy blitzing.



What about Greg Williams? He's almost certainly not coming back to NY after this year as I'm guessing the entire staff is replaced.

He's an aggressive, firey coach and he's creative, especially with his blitzes.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 25, 2020, 2:11 PM Post
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HiAndTight said:
Ok, how many pressures did he have over those 6 games? What was his win rate? Saying he had 2 sacks over the last 6 games(And then 2 more in the playoffs) tells me almost nothing about him as a pass rusher.


And of course, I disagree with the statement that he won't be tradeable. We're 5 games into the season, he's 27 years old and had12 sacks and 55 pressures a year ago and he'd cost ~2/22 for any team acquiring him. I think the idea he went from an extremely reliable edge rusher to one of the better ones in the leagues to untradeable in a year is a little....over the top.


No idea. Feel free to look them up and refute what I'm saying. But by sacks and by watching the game, he really tailed off the end of last year. He is owed a $4.5M roster bonus next year and they can save $8M on the cap by cutting him next year. He played better today, but if he doesn't crank it back up, it wouldn't surprise me if they cut him next year.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 26, 2020, 1:52 AM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
HiAndTight said:
Ok, how many pressures did he have over those 6 games? What was his win rate? Saying he had 2 sacks over the last 6 games(And then 2 more in the playoffs) tells me almost nothing about him as a pass rusher.


And of course, I disagree with the statement that he won't be tradeable. We're 5 games into the season, he's 27 years old and had12 sacks and 55 pressures a year ago and he'd cost ~2/22 for any team acquiring him. I think the idea he went from an extremely reliable edge rusher to one of the better ones in the leagues to untradeable in a year is a little....over the top.


No idea. Feel free to look them up and refute what I'm saying. But by sacks and by watching the game, he really tailed off the end of last year. He is owed a $4.5M roster bonus next year and they can save $8M on the cap by cutting him next year. He played better today, but if he doesn't crank it back up, it wouldn't surprise me if they cut him next year.


The point...which you obviously know, is that using sacks over 6 games is an extremely flawed way of evaluating how well someone played.

For instance, you said he played well today(and I agree, he did). And he had zero sacks. You're making the assertion that he "really tailed off." I'm saying I don't think the stat you're using is very effective in determining that.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 26, 2020, 7:48 AM Post
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HiAndTight said:
CheezWizHed said:
HiAndTight said:
Ok, how many pressures did he have over those 6 games? What was his win rate? Saying he had 2 sacks over the last 6 games(And then 2 more in the playoffs) tells me almost nothing about him as a pass rusher.


And of course, I disagree with the statement that he won't be tradeable. We're 5 games into the season, he's 27 years old and had12 sacks and 55 pressures a year ago and he'd cost ~2/22 for any team acquiring him. I think the idea he went from an extremely reliable edge rusher to one of the better ones in the leagues to untradeable in a year is a little....over the top.


No idea. Feel free to look them up and refute what I'm saying. But by sacks and by watching the game, he really tailed off the end of last year. He is owed a $4.5M roster bonus next year and they can save $8M on the cap by cutting him next year. He played better today, but if he doesn't crank it back up, it wouldn't surprise me if they cut him next year.


The point...which you obviously know, is that using sacks over 6 games is an extremely flawed way of evaluating how well someone played.

For instance, you said he played well today(and I agree, he did). And he had zero sacks. You're making the assertion that he "really tailed off." I'm saying I don't think the stat you're using is very effective in determining that.



Two points:
1) I said he played better today - i.e. he made a big stop on 4th down and seemed to hold his edge. He did little else. I wouldn't say he played well.
2) I agree that sacks aren't a great indicator, but it is available. And I paired it with my observation of watching his game.

The original point was that he wasn't playing well this year... I was merely adding on that he hasn't played well the second half of last year either.

Again, feel free to refute my observations with his pressure numbers if you want. I'm not your secretary.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 26, 2020, 8:08 AM Post
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To make a long discussion short, in looking at Smith's contract a couple of weeks ago, it was clear it was designed to be a two-year deal. There's almost zero chance the Packers pay him $16 mil next year or $16.5 in 2022, and there was an out built in after this year. I'd say it's far more likely that he's off the roster next year than on.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 26, 2020, 8:15 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
To make a long discussion short, in looking at Smith's contract a couple of weeks ago, it was clear it was designed to be a two-year deal. There's almost zero chance the Packers pay him $16 mil next year or $16.5 in 2022, and there was an out built in after this year. I'd say it's far more likely that he's off the roster next year than on.


That fits the narrative of the way they are using Gary as well. Gary played in spots last year, but this year he's been a much more focal part of the defense. It would make sense to continue seeing him ascend into a near full-time role next year as the bookend OLB opposite Z.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 3:37 AM Post
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I’m glad the Bears lost, but let’s keep in mind they had to play an NFC West team on the road. The Packers will have to do the same in 2 weeks (on short rest) and will likely get their second loss, as well.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 6:53 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
To make a long discussion short, in looking at Smith's contract a couple of weeks ago, it was clear it was designed to be a two-year deal. There's almost zero chance the Packers pay him $16 mil next year or $16.5 in 2022, and there was an out built in after this year. I'd say it's far more likely that he's off the roster next year than on.


They did the same thing with Za'Darius Smith, Amos and Turner.

If you cut him after this year, you're taking an 8 million dollar cap hit to get rid of him. So you save 8 million dollars. If not for the change to the Cap, I don't think there'd be any doubt they'd keep him for another year, especially given how much edge players are getting. Maybe with Gary stepping up they go with Za'Darius and Gary. Though even in that scenario, I think you could pretty easily trade him.

Robert Quinn signed for 5/70 and was 4 years older than Preston Smith when he signed that deal and for about twice the guaranteed money.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 6:56 AM Post
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nodakfan17 said:
I’m glad the Bears lost, but let’s keep in mind they had to play an NFC West team on the road. The Packers will have to do the same in 2 weeks (on short rest) and will likely get their second loss, as well.


I don't know about that. The 49ers are going to be pushing a skeleton crew out there. Let's not play into the narrative that every team in the NFC West is infallible.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 7:00 AM Post
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The Bears have a negative point differential

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 7:54 AM Post
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CheezWizHed said:


Two points:
1) I said he played better today - i.e. he made a big stop on 4th down and seemed to hold his edge. He did little else. I wouldn't say he played well.
2) I agree that sacks aren't a great indicator, but it is available. And I paired it with my observation of watching his game.

The original point was that he wasn't playing well this year... I was merely adding on that he hasn't played well the second half of last year either.

Again, feel free to refute my observations with his pressure numbers if you want. I'm not your secretary.



I'd say he played pretty damn well. He was excellent vs the run and he set up both sacks as he was the one pressuring Watson forcing him to step up...as he did on Za'Darius Smith's sack.

Thank you for letting me know you're not my secretary. You seem to be getting pretty offended because I challenged the assertion that saying that he didn't play well using the last six games when he only got 2 sacks was a poor way to evaluate. If you extend that out a game each way, then in 8 games he has 6 sacks. You can play with those numbers to fit just about any narrative.

You made an assertion based on a stat that you yourself concede is not a good way to gauge how effective an edge player has been.


I would argue that the problem is far more Pettine than it is Smith. Oren Burks is now rushing the passer as an OLB'er while Preston Smith is dropping into coverage 3 or 4 times more often than he did in Washington and he did the same thing last year though to a slightly lesser degree.

He's graded out VERY well vs the run throughout his career including last year(I believe he was ahead of Za'Darius Smith in that regard).

His game vs the Texans was the exact type of game that shows you how big of an impact an edge player can have without filling up the stat sheet.


We need more from him...I'm not suggesting we don't, but it may also help if he's put in a position to succeed a little bit more. He lined up over Tunsil, their best OL nearly the entire game, and still got a couple of pressures and made some big plays in the run game.

This is a nice article about Smith. Touches on his struggles early in the year and I think makes a pretty strong case he played very well.

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/preston-s ... ouston-112


Now, this wasn't a day where Smith filled the stat sheet by any means, finishing with three tackles, but he was still disruptive. In the run game, one of his tackles was for a loss, and he did a fine job of setting the edge throughout the game as well. And although he didn't come away with a sack, on two occasions, his presence in the backfield led to a pair of sacks, and he also made an excellent read and finish on this crucial fourth down play, taking down the elusive Deshaun Watson.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 8:01 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
nodakfan17 said:
I’m glad the Bears lost, but let’s keep in mind they had to play an NFC West team on the road. The Packers will have to do the same in 2 weeks (on short rest) and will likely get their second loss, as well.


I don't know about that. The 49ers are going to be pushing a skeleton crew out there. Let's not play into the narrative that every team in the NFC West is infallible.



They're obviously not infallible, but that's still going to be a tough game. Two days after the trade deadline.

It's actually amazing how they just spanked the Pats. They've got arguably a more talented defense on IR than the Packers have shown this year and they're still playing well.
Ford, Bosa, Thomas, Sherman, Ansah, Blair...


They've still got some edge rushers though despite losing two elite ones in Ford and Bosa.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 8:06 AM Post
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HiAndTight said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
nodakfan17 said:
I’m glad the Bears lost, but let’s keep in mind they had to play an NFC West team on the road. The Packers will have to do the same in 2 weeks (on short rest) and will likely get their second loss, as well.


I don't know about that. The 49ers are going to be pushing a skeleton crew out there. Let's not play into the narrative that every team in the NFC West is infallible.



They're obviously not infallible, but that's still going to be a tough game. Two days after the trade deadline.

It's actually amazing how they just spanked the Pats. They've got arguably a more talented defense on IR than the Packers have shown this year and they're still playing well.
Ford, Bosa, Thomas, Sherman, Ansah, Blair...


They've still got some edge rushers though despite losing two elite ones in Ford and Bosa.


No doubt. I have no illusions that the 49er game isn't going to be a tough one for the Packers. Shanahan is going to game plan the hell out of that game, and put his skeleton crew in the best position to succeed. I hope Lafleur is up to the challenge. I simply believe that referring to the game as a "likely" loss for the Packers is a very hyperbolic statement to make.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 8:44 AM Post
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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020 ... breakdown/

Not sure this is a comprehensive list(or a complete one).

A few interesting options;
WR'er
Seth Roberts is on here.
Marvin Jones is a really interesting name. Another upcoming FA. He could be a legit #2 WR'er.
Golden Tate
Kenny Stills
Josh Reynolds-Can't really see why the Rams would be trading a talented WR'er when they're in the race unless they like their depth...he's a big athletic target and they've got Woods and Kupp ahead of him, plus two very good TE's.
John Ross

Julio Jones and AJ Green seem totally unrealistic.

MLB'er
Zach Cunningham is listed. Really the only difference-maker on the list at LB'er. Though he's expensive, the Packers could simply trade him after this season since Houston will have eaten the guaranteed money or release him.
Avery Williamson will probably be traded and I'd assume it'll be to the Steelers after losing Bush. He's a pretty solid 3 down LB'er.

DL
Sheldon Rankins-I don't know why the Saints would be looking to trade a good young DL who's one of the few guys without an enormous cap hit next year.
Geno Atkins-Meh, bit cap hit, 32 years old. Not playing much for the Bengals. Not a good fit.
Watt-Really can't see the Texans trading Watt, but I'd love to see him playing for the Packers. And they could actually extend him to lower his cap hit next year....

Malik Jackson-The Eagles would eat nearly 17 million in dead cap space by cutting him.

Dalvin Tomlinson is a FA and would be a really nice fit in GB. I'd think the Giants would want to build around him, but if he's available, he's a nice target to help fix our Run D that IS still a problem.

CB-Gilmore is on the list. The Pats just gave him more money(not extended, just gave it to him) so I kinda doubt he's traded. And not worth the resources it'd take to acquire him.

Safety-
Anthony Harris is a stud and there is zero chance the Vikings trade him to us and if they did, it'd likely cost us a 1st.
Harrison Smith is also very good and I doubt Minnesota will trade him to us of all teams.
Marcus Maye...again, a really good player and a URFA. Unless you plan on bringing Greg Williams with him, I'm not sure Pettine would use him all that effectively though.



So a lot of head-scratchers on that list. It looks like they just took guys who have already demanded trades, good players on bad teams and then sprinkled in a few other guys.

And then anyone who plays on the Jets because they're trading everyone not named Becton.
Man...the Jets just have nothing going for them. They've got one of the worst head coaches I can recall from recent memory. He's Matt Millen bad in another job.

But there are players in there who would be cheap and could fill the holes we do have. A physical WR'er, a big space eating DL and maybe a MLB'er, though I think that spot is starting to clean itself up with the return of Martin. And Kirksey is supposed to be back yet.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 8:49 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:

No doubt. I have no illusions that the 49er game isn't going to be a tough one for the Packers. Shanahan is going to game plan the hell out of that game, and put his skeleton crew in the best position to succeed. I hope Lafleur is up to the challenge. I simply believe that referring to the game as a "likely" loss for the Packers is a very hyperbolic statement to make.


It's definitely hyperbolic. It feels like it's relying too heavily on our trips out West last year and the beat down at the hands of the 49'ers. A bit part of that was the pressure they were able to put on us. Lets at least wait and see if Bahk and Jones and others will be back before waiving the white flag.

It'll be a test though. All I can remember from that game was McGlinchey almost serving as a lead blocker and getting to the 2nd level EVER DAMN PLAY.


I'd reiterate how frustrating it can be watching our DL take themselves out of plays with poor gap integrity and trying to get upfield which plays right into their hands, but I don't think Pettine is going to fix it and it's getting old. Just give this team Dom Capers and I think our Defense looks so much better. I cannot understand what Pettine's thought process is.

Either way, it'll be a good matchup...even if they come into the game down ~10-12 starters.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 27, 2020, 2:16 PM Post
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HiAndTight said:
Thank you for letting me know you're not my secretary. You seem to be getting pretty offended because I challenged the assertion that saying that he didn't play well using the last six games when he only got 2 sacks was a poor way to evaluate. If you extend that out a game each way, then in 8 games he has 6 sacks. You can play with those numbers to fit just about any narrative.

You made an assertion based on a stat that you yourself concede is not a good way to gauge how effective an edge player has been.

I was annoyed because you were refuting my own statement by telling me to go look up more stats. If you want to use those stats, please provide them. I'm not disagreeing they are valuable, I just don't have access to them.

I'm confident in my own evaluation of watching him play last year that he was very hot for the first half of the season and dropped off massively the second half. Sacks aren't everything in the evaluation, but they aren't nothing either. His sack drop-off aligned with what I saw on the field and I'd bet his pressures did exactly the same.

HiAndTight said:
I would argue that the problem is far more Pettine than it is Smith. Oren Burks is now rushing the passer as an OLB'er while Preston Smith is dropping into coverage 3 or 4 times more often than he did in Washington and he did the same thing last year though to a slightly lesser degree.

I thought he might be dropping into coverage more than last year, but this article says that he dropped into coverage exactly the same as the first 5 games of last year:

Playing time and role aren’t to blame. Smith has been on the field for 87 percent of the defense’s snaps in 2020, up three percent from last season. And he’s dropped into coverage 51 times, the exact number he dropped through five games last season.


HiAndTight said:
He's graded out VERY well vs the run throughout his career including last year(I believe he was ahead of Za'Darius Smith in that regard).

What grading system? Our run defense has been so attrocious, I've not thought about Smith in this regard. But he has been increasingly reminding me of Nick Perry (minus the injury issues), who was strong against the run and had one good year in pass rush.

HiAndTight said:
His game vs the Texans was the exact type of game that shows you how big of an impact an edge player can have without filling up the stat sheet.

Yes, as I looked back, he was better than I gave him credit for. He had more pressure plays where he didn't get the sack, but someone did.

But even if he plays that way the whole season, I doubt he will be worth the $16M cap number. Between the 4 FAs they signed last year, I'd be surprised if at least one of them isn't cut this year for finance reasons. Smith has Gary behind him (granted both are getting high amount of snaps now) and has been the least valuable so far this year.


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Offline  Re: Packers 2020 team discussion
Posted: October 28, 2020, 3:23 PM Post
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https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2020 ... -wednesday

Lazard and Kirksey resumed practicing today.


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