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40-man roster discussion (part 2)

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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 27, 2019, 3:47 PM Post
Posts: 764
I'm a little surprised that Guerra will be non-tendered. He was reasonably successful out of the bullpen last year.

I know some people on Twitter think this means they're more likely to non-tender other borderline guys, but I actually think it means they're more likely to tender a guy like Nelson. For roughly the same projected arb salary Nelson feels like the higher upside play. (Yes I know they could keep both players if they wanted).


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 27, 2019, 3:49 PM Post
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long ball said:
I'm a little surprised that Guerra will be non-tendered. He was reasonably successful out of the bullpen last year.

I know some people on Twitter think this means they're more likely to non-tender other borderline guys, but I actually think it means they're more likely to tender a guy like Nelson. For roughly the same projected arb salary Nelson feels like the higher upside play. (Yes I know they could keep both players if they wanted).


If they don't keep Nelson, it's because they think he's done. I personally don't think they'll go that way, but I've already been surprised by multiple moves this offseason, so who knows?


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 27, 2019, 4:03 PM Post
Posts: 233
Guerra to me, always seemed worse than his numbers indicated. Really never felt comfortable with him in the game, didn't seem to miss many bats.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 27, 2019, 8:43 PM Post
Posts: 12190
RWeeksFan23 said:
Guerra to me, always seemed worse than his numbers indicated. Really never felt comfortable with him in the game, didn't seem to miss many bats.


77 K's in 83 2/3 innings doesn't say can't miss bats to me. That's a ton of innings (mostly quality) to replace. He had rough outings, usually after being used a lot but he's been pretty darn reliable and a big contributor to two playoff teams. I can't say I'm shocked but I am surprised. They seem to be pinching every possible penny. I'm hoping that's for a reason namely to sign one big bat and one top starter. I'll be very disappointed if it's just to churn their roster with similar type quality.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 27, 2019, 10:39 PM Post
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There's a bit of a bullpen crunch with guys who have no options left, including J Guerra, so I'm not entirely surprised they are non-tendering him to save some money and gives other guys a spot. Would you rather have Taylor Williams, for example? (I would.)

Plus, Stearns needs to save all this payroll space for his Stephen Strasburg signing.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 27, 2019, 11:03 PM Post
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You got a feeling that DS has another trade under his belt and think he has one big FA signing coming up


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 27, 2019, 11:47 PM Post
Posts: 587
Location: Milwaukee
SRB said:
There's a bit of a bullpen crunch with guys who have no options left, including J Guerra, so I'm not entirely surprised they are non-tendering him to save some money and gives other guys a spot. Would you rather have Taylor Williams, for example? (I would.)

I was looking at this today as well. You have T.Williams, Faria, R. Black, and the other Guerra that are out of options and will be battling for a bullpen spot. I don't expect all of these guys to make it, but they will be given every chance to make the roster.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 28, 2019, 8:21 PM Post
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DHonks said:
he battled his splitter all year

I thought that was due to the new ball and hesitancy to use the splitter, and that once he started using the splitter again he had better results in July and August. But he did seem to run out of gas in September; could have been because his 83 IP out of the pen, IIRC, was top five in all of baseball.

He pitched in 12 of their 25 games in July and 14 of their 26 games in August, or roughly every other game in July and August. No wonder he ran out of gas in September.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 28, 2019, 8:47 PM Post
Posts: 8100
LouisEly said:
DHonks said:
he battled his splitter all year

I thought that was due to the new ball and hesitancy to use the splitter, and that once he started using the splitter again he had better results in July and August. But he did seem to run out of gas in September; could have been because his 83 IP out of the pen, IIRC, was top five in all of baseball.

He pitched in 12 of their 25 games in July and 14 of their 26 games in August, or roughly every other game in July and August. No wonder he ran out of gas in September.


That’s my understanding as well. But who knows how the ball will be next year. Also, we could always re-sign him cheaper than arby


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: November 29, 2019, 3:27 AM Post
Posts: 1047
JohnBriggs12 said:
RWeeksFan23 said:
Guerra to me, always seemed worse than his numbers indicated. Really never felt comfortable with him in the game, didn't seem to miss many bats.

77 K's in 83 2/3 innings doesn't say can't miss bats to me.


With how the strikeout rate keeps increasing, that is actually below the league average (7% below actually. K% is only 3% below). Walk rate is above the league average (117 BB/9+, 122 BB%+). In other words, that K:BB ratio is not very good at all. Junior did do a good job of limiting hard contact this year, but even that doesn't really fully explain his extremely low BABIP of .218 (Career best by far) which is what he relied on to keep runs off the board. 2018 Jhoulys Chacin was similar in a way, the relatively poor K/BB numbers and a career low BABIP and lower than usual HR/FB rate. These are both stats with a lot of fluctuation, fluctuations that are much bigger than what a genuine change by the player can achieve.

When a single-season ERA improvement is the result of swings in numbers like that, with K/BB numbers actually getting worse, one should absolutely be wary of them. What the Brewers will have to decide is whether the improved batted-ball profile for Junior was a result of the changes he made (ditching the slider for the curve, increased velocity from the bullpen), or if it was fluky.

I'd probably still tender him, as there is so much upheaval on the pitching staff already, and arbitration salaries aren't fully guaranteed anyway. But it'd be borderline, the $3.5m projected salary is a lot for, at best, a middle reliever. So it's not surprising at all if he's non-tendered.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: December 03, 2019, 8:36 AM Post

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Posts: 2859
discussed amply here, the brewers decided not to tender contracts to five arbitration-eligible players, making alex claudio, junior guerra, jimmy nelson, tyler saladino and travis shaw free agents.

the roster is at 31 players.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: December 03, 2019, 9:43 AM Post
Posts: 2056
DHonks said:
LouisEly said:
DHonks said:
he battled his splitter all year

I thought that was due to the new ball and hesitancy to use the splitter, and that once he started using the splitter again he had better results in July and August. But he did seem to run out of gas in September; could have been because his 83 IP out of the pen, IIRC, was top five in all of baseball.

He pitched in 12 of their 25 games in July and 14 of their 26 games in August, or roughly every other game in July and August. No wonder he ran out of gas in September.


That’s my understanding as well. But who knows how the ball will be next year. Also, we could always re-sign him cheaper than arby


That is my hope. Sign him for $2M with staggered appearance bonus.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: December 03, 2019, 11:18 AM Post

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Posts: 2859
the post above prompted me to dig up this thread. please take a look at it and quote/post accordingly.


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Offline  Re: 40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Posted: December 05, 2019, 11:24 AM Post

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Posts: 2859
omar narváez acquired from seattle in exchange a minor leaguer and a 2020 competitive balance round b selection.

narváez has all three minor league options intact and is under club control (arbitration-eligible) for the next three seasons.

the roster is at 32 players.


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