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2017 Starting Pitching Rotation

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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 18, 2017, 8:17 AM Post
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I fail to see what Milone has done to deserve to keep his spot, especially since he shouldn't have had it in the first place!


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 18, 2017, 8:48 AM Post
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MillerParkSouth said:
I fail to see what Milone has done to deserve to keep his spot, especially since he shouldn't have had it in the first place!


I don't want to see Milone get another start. Seeing his picture in the "upcoming pitchers" slot virtually eliminates any potential we have of sweeping the Cubs. But, we need a warm body for one more day. Having two starting pitchers on the DL from day 1 sucks. Hopefully Guerra is back soon and we'll stay relatively healthy from here on out.

That said, barring him throwing a no-hitter tomorrow, I doubt there's any way he keeps his spot. They need one more outing before Garza will be ready, since he just pitched on Monday. Then Milone will be out of the rotation. I don't have a lot of faith in Garza either, but he will get at least a couple starts until Guerra's ready.

As to Milone's future, my guess is that he will remain in the pen since the Brewers don't have any other LHP in the pen. Marinez has not been pitching well, so he seems to me to be the odd man out. Milone is far from secure, but let's see if he can come in and get LH hitters out in a reliever role. That could really help the team, but if he stinks at that he's gone.

The silver lining is that we have some good prospects who are not too far off. We're still seeing what we have in some of the MLB guys, but soon we will be dumping some of the guys who don't have it, and replacing them with younger guys with more talent. The way Anderson, Peralta and Nelson are pitching is why it is important to use this year to see what we have in some people. This offseason, we were discussing sending Nelson to AAA, putting Peralta in the 'pen, and dumping Anderson. By giving them a chance, some will sink, some will swim and hopefully in the near future we'll be better off for giving these guys a chance and letting the prospects get some more "seasoning" in the minors. So far, Anderson, Peralta and Nelson have risen, while Milone and Suter have sunk. Given the way he's pitched lately, Garza will probably not do well, but he'll get a chance to see what he can do.

Then, the days of "seeing what aging vets have left" will hopefully be over. The MLB rotation will constantly be pitching for their jobs as young, talented guys are doing everything they can to force their way into the MLB rotation. That's a day I've been waiting for for a long time, and it looks like it's nearly here.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 18, 2017, 8:53 AM Post
Posts: 414
MillerParkSouth said:
I fail to see what Milone has done to deserve to keep his spot, especially since he shouldn't have had it in the first place!

There is something weird about Garza going out for multiple rehab starts a week removed from a full spring training.
Milone’s SEIRA is 4.14. His xFIP is 3.93. His PECOTA and ZIPs projections are over ½ run better than Garza. I know he sucks but I see zero evidence that Garza will be better. There is a possibility Garza outpitches him going forward, but I don’t think it is likely. Im just arguing the Brewers should play probability and that means Milone between the 2. We will have more data tomorrow night that may change my opinion.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 18, 2017, 9:18 AM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
Basing a decision based on projections makes zero sense. Projections are fun, but they mean nothing. Silly really.

I think Milone is meant to be a veteran garbage can and the fact no better lefty exists that can also start. Too early to bring up young guys so this is what we get to see. Shows the lack of depth when it comes to lefties to a degree.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 18, 2017, 9:50 AM Post
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If Milone wasn't a lefty, he would've been out of out of the league awhile ago. The guy sucks. Garza will be back in that role after his next start more than likely and he should be. We are paying him a lot of money and if we are going to have one sucky starter, it might as well be a guy we are paying $10mil+


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Online  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 18, 2017, 10:15 AM Post
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monty57 said:
I'd guess Milone starts tomorrow and then becomes our LHP out of the 'pen. Garza will take his spot in the rotation and Marinez will get sent to AAA.

Garza hasn't done anything to impress anyone so far this spring, including giving up 4 ER in 5.2 IP against Class A Iowa on Monday. He'll get a couple of starts before Guerra comes back to see if he has anything left in the tank. If everyone else is healthy when Guerra returns, that could be the end for Garza as a Brewer. By that time, if another SP goes to the DL we'll just call up a prospect rather than messing around with a washed-up vet.


This is exactly how I see it. Garza takes Millone's spot, Millone to BP, Marinez to AAA. Garza gets a couple starts, and then when Guerra comes back Garza is DFA. Of course, there could always be another injury before then. If Garza is decent, then I don't know what they do.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 18, 2017, 10:18 AM Post
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Marinez can elect free agency if he's DFA'd and unclaimed on waivers. Dunno how much value they place on him internally, but if they take him off of the roster, he's probably not going to remain a member of the organization for long.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 18, 2017, 11:06 AM Post
Posts: 1191
And That said:
Marinez can elect free agency if he's DFA'd and unclaimed on waivers. Dunno how much value they place on him internally, but if they take him off of the roster, he's probably not going to remain a member of the organization for long.


You think someone would put them on their 25 man roster? Probably someone else churning their bottom of the bullpen.

If not, then I assume the Brewers could tell him we are going to pay you more than the going rate to stay in the system. You know at some point during the year the Brewers will go with a 13 man bullpen. Adding in injuries and performance issues, you would think he would have every chance to get back to the majors with the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 19, 2017, 1:06 PM Post
Posts: 266
Is this a playoff rotation?

Guerra
Davies
Peralta
Nelson
Hader


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 19, 2017, 1:14 PM Post
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BestInTheWorld said:
Is this a playoff rotation?

Guerra
Davies
Peralta
Nelson
Hader


Not one that is probably going to win a series. Playoff rotations generally have only 3-4 starters, so one or two of those would probably head to the pen.

Guerra and Hader I would guess would be our best bets in the playoffs. Maybe Woodruff if he emerged as hoped. Then just take your pick from whoever has emerged from the rest.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 19, 2017, 1:15 PM Post
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BestInTheWorld said:
Is this a playoff rotation?

Guerra
Davies
Peralta
Nelson
Hader


If Hader is the ace some people feel he can be.
If Guerra can come back and pitch like he did a season ago.
If Peralta truly is the pitcher we've seen this season already.
If Nelson is the first two starts Nelson and not the last start Nelson.
If Davies is as good as he was a year ago.

Sure, then its a playoff rotation.


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Online  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 19, 2017, 3:16 PM Post
Posts: 5649
Brew4U said:
BestInTheWorld said:
Is this a playoff rotation?

Guerra
Davies
Peralta
Nelson
Hader


If Hader is the ace some people feel he can be.
If Guerra can come back and pitch like he did a season ago.
If Peralta truly is the pitcher we've seen this season already.
If Nelson is the first two starts Nelson and not the last start Nelson.
If Davies is as good as he was a year ago.

Sure, then its a playoff rotation.


To answer the question, I'll be even more blunt. No.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 19, 2017, 3:22 PM Post
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Royals rotation was pretty terrible the year they won the World Series. Last years indians rotation was nothing special since their ace was hurt. There is no such thing as looking like a playoff rotation. You can win in the playoffs a myriad of ways.

Assume the Brewers rotation pitches to its career bests they would have a solid 1-2. You assume Hader is some sort of good number 3 and that one of the other guys actually steps up and you have a completely plausible playoff rotation. I doubt it happens but it is plausible. I don't know why we are talking playoffs this year anyway and if we are going for it next year we probably sign someone unless a couple guys break out.

Guerra - 2.81
Peralta - 3.53
Hader - 3.50


Last edited by Ennder on April 20, 2017, 5:54 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 19, 2017, 3:45 PM Post
Posts: 1184
BestInTheWorld said:
Is this a playoff rotation?

Guerra
Davies
Peralta
Nelson
Hader


For all the (rightful) discussion of Milone Jimmy Nelson sure delivered an A+ himself last night. And Counsell gets an A+ himself for how he handled it. The answer is definitively a no until proven otherwise.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 19, 2017, 7:14 PM Post
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As one who has dismissed Milone, I must say after seeing him in person today handle the Cubs with relative ease, he is winning me over. He broke Bryant' s bat not once but twice. There was really no reason to pull him after 5 innings. Milone is a soft tosser but his 87-88 was beating Hendricks' 84-85.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 20, 2017, 6:15 AM Post
Posts: 414
MrTPlush said:
Basing a decision based on projections makes zero sense. Projections are fun, but they mean nothing. Silly really.

Making decisions exclusively based off of projections is silly. Ignoring projections in decision making is incompetence. Now they may have better inputs than publicly available systems, but I guarantee you every team has some projection system they utilize in decision making. Now projection systems are just a forecast and can be wrong (hi Ramon Flores…). Despite notorious inaccuracy, Im guessing you still utilize weather forecast to plan because it is the best data we have. I agree that you still need to look up at the clouds as the day goes on.
Since most of the other factors in this case are a wash between Garza and Milone (longterm upside, performance in previous season, etc.) its make logical sense to utilize projections that can take a large data set of historical equivalents.
That being said, I also cited advanced stats of xFIP and SIERA showing that Milone hasn’t pitched terribly just unlucky by random events so far. I still don’t like Milone and haven’t since Maas reported the Brewers were dining him, but Milone now has a 12:1 K:BB ratio with 2 starts being against the best team in the world. Anyway you look at it that is encouraging
JohnBriggs12 said:
As one who has dismissed Milone, I must say after seeing him in person today handle the Cubs with relative ease, he is winning me over. He broke Bryant' s bat not once but twice. There was really no reason to pull him after 5 innings. Milone is a soft tosser but his 87-88 was beating Hendricks' 84-85.

The best argument I’ve heard for Garza over Milone is Milone makes people uncomfortable. I don’t know what about Garza being 2 years removed from competing with Lohse for the league ERA title and another year further on the downside of his career with troubling drops in secondary metrics instills comfort.
We shall see what the Stearn & co decide to do, but they’ve made decisions in past showing they have some affinity toward Milone. I haven’t seen that for Garza.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 20, 2017, 7:30 AM Post
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BestInTheWorld said:
Is this a playoff rotation?

Guerra
Davies
Peralta
Nelson
Hader

It all depends on the hitters.

If guys who are hitting keep hitting (Thames, Braun, Pina, Bandy, Aguilar, Shaw, Santana), and guys that should be hitting better improve - or we replace them (Villar, Perez, Broxton, Arcia, Kirk N.) - then who knows. We have the 2nd highest OPS in the NL right now. And while Thames will regress, there's a lot of room for improvement.

With luck, the pitching could be average. But the hitting could be above average. Get into the playoffs, get some guys hot -- who knows. Also, in the playoffs, a 5th starter might not be needed - eliminating a potential weakness.

Note: I don't necessarily believe my scenario I just painted is super feasible. But I'm not discounting it.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 20, 2017, 8:49 AM Post
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Ennder said:
Royals rotation was pretty terrible the year they won the World Series. Last years indians rotation was nothing special since their ace was hurt. There is no such thing as looking like a playoff rotation. You can win in the playoffs a myriad of ways.

Assume the Brewers rotation pitches to its career bests they would have a solid 1-2. You assume Hader is some sort of good number 3 and that one of the other guys actually steps up and you have a completely plausible playoff rotation. I doubt it happens but it is plausible. I don't know why we are talking playoffs this year anyway and if we are going for it next year we probably sign someone unless a couple guys break out.

Guerra - 2.81
Peralta - 3.53
Hader - 3.50


Yeah, it's nice to have this decent start to the season, but the playoffs are still a long, long shot this year. However, if we see some good signs, like shoring up 1B & 3B with above average players and seeing some of our SP break out, then it is possible we will look at 2018 as a potential playoff year.

If that's the case (not saying it is, but if) then the Brewers will try to use some of their free cash flow to land themselves a good starting pitcher, either in free agency or by taking on a lot of salary in trade. I'd love to bring in a good SP if we're using mostly cash instead of top prospects to land him.

To this year's rotation, it was nice to see Milone pitch well yesterday. I said above that Milone would basically need a no hitter to save his spot. He didn't do that, but he pitched well against a very good offense. , Both he and Garza are placeholders until Guerra's back and one of them will get some starts until then. I wonder if his outing yesterday is enough for the Brewers to dump Garza, who hasn't shown anything. I guess it's really whether the Brewers like holding onto Garza more then Marinez at this point, as Milone will probably at least be in the pen.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 20, 2017, 9:14 AM Post
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I wonder if they'll kick the can down the road a bit and have Garza make another rehab start, since he wasn't sharp in his last one. Give Milone one more start.

And I'd rather not sign a FA SP, given our history. You've got to overpay or go a year or two longer than you should, being stuck with a crappy pitcher making a lot of money at the end of the contract. That's the nice part about actually having SP prospects in the minors.


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Online  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: April 20, 2017, 10:30 AM Post
Posts: 5649
Nothing wrong at all with acquiring a pitcher via FA or trade. Doesn't have to be signing a Suppan type for 7 years at $50MM a year. Like everything else, you can find the right guy at the right time. There is risk, but you're not going to win the WS without some risk. Since Stearns seems to be right far more often than wrong, I would trust him to sign a pitcher that will help them and not break the bank.


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