LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14  Next  [ 265 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

2017 Starting Pitching Rotation

Author Message
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 7:37 AM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
FVBrewerFan said:
KeithStone53151 said:

Starting in September, we should have enough arms up that Garza should never be allowed to get into a position to allow more than 5 or 6 runs in a game...possibly not even that many. Hader/Suter/Guerra possibly Jungmann...all can go 3+ innings if needed.


I basically agree with that, I guess I was talking more about Garza's next start. If he's bad in that start, no reason for him to pitch again this season. As you said, they'll have lots of options in September.

But when I say short leash for his next start, I wouldn't even let it get to 5 or 6 runs.


I wasn't really disagreeing with you, more than anything agreeing while adding that little tidbit. And when I say in a position to allow 5-6 runs, I meant moreso if he gets to the 2nd inning and has 2 on with 3 runs in...yeah that's enough. At most he could allow 4 runs in that case. No way should he be allowed to stay in there to allow the big fly to let it actually get to 5 runs. Even now, we have 8 in the bullpen and they haven't been worked all that hard recently with the off days(and we have 2 more coming up in the next week). If on a Garza start day, we have to use Hader/Torres/Jeffress for 4-6 innings...so be it. We shouldn't be giving away any games at this point, every game should be managed like a playoff game would be.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 7:42 AM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
Baldkin said:
It is a huge amount of luck.

The biggest correlation to giving up runs is letting guys on base and right now Hader is doing that a lot. He's stranded 93% of runners he's given up this year, that should be expected to be about 75% going forward.

He's given up a .211 BABIP against RHB's and .236 overall that is unsustainable, it will regress towards .300 going forward (everyone besides huge GB pitchers do)

He's also faced way more LHB's than he would as a starter thus far (40% vs LHB's).

His xFIP is 5.03.

I'm rooting for the guy, and want him to be a great starter, but thus far, every single peripheral he has shows he's been put in the best possible position to succeed (good on CC for that) and he's been lucky.


Pitchers with electric stuff tend to strand more runners and have lower BABIP as they generate weaker contact. Just like guys with the highest exit velocities tend to have the highest BABIP numbers. You can't simply say "league average is X, so he should regress toward that". He's surely been lucky(nobody has a BABIP in the 220/230s or 93% strand rate), he isn't a 1.3 ERA pitcher. But he also isn't a 5 ERA pitcher in his current role, and probably not even a 4 ERA pitcher.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 8:54 AM Post
Posts: 128
Any chance at all Corbin Burnes gets brought up to start when rosters expand?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 9:01 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 688
Location: La Crosse
shanedog19 said:
Any chance at all Corbin Burnes gets brought up to start when rosters expand?

He has to be close to his innings limit. The earliest we will see Burnes imo will be next June.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 9:09 AM Post
Posts: 1704
Location: Madison, WI
I'd think we can all be fairly comfortable that Woodruff will be the #4 starter come September. Also, I would think he'd be back before that in order to have him post season eligible, the way I understand the rules anyway. So who knows, maybe even if Garza gets beat up by SF they'll bring Woodruff up for Garza's next start and then sort it out after Sept comes around.

So the real question is on who they'll use as the 5 when needed. Would come down to Garza, Suter, Jungmann at this point I would think. This really rides on how Garza does the next two starts, if he recovers he carries on. If not I'd think they'd give Suter a couple runs at it when he's back.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on August 22, 2017, 9:20 AM, edited 1 time in total.

 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 9:11 AM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
shanedog19 said:
Any chance at all Corbin Burnes gets brought up to start when rosters expand?


I personally don't think so, but hard to say. Last year, Hader was not brought up during his breakout year. Woodruff followed a fairly similar pattern to Burnes last year and also was not called up. The year prior, Jorge Lopez WAS brought up during his breakout year in AA. Burnes has also thrown 137 innings this season and has 1-2 starts left prior to september and potentially could have AA playoffs. That's plenty of work to prepare him for potentially 180-190 innings in 2018 if the opportunity arises.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 9:35 AM Post
Posts: 5876
KeithStone53151 said:
shanedog19 said:
Any chance at all Corbin Burnes gets brought up to start when rosters expand?


I personally don't think so, but hard to say. Last year, Hader was not brought up during his breakout year. Woodruff followed a fairly similar pattern to Burnes last year and also was not called up. The year prior, Jorge Lopez WAS brought up during his breakout year in AA. Burnes has also thrown 137 innings this season and has 1-2 starts left prior to september and potentially could have AA playoffs. That's plenty of work to prepare him for potentially 180-190 innings in 2018 if the opportunity arises.


Yea, I think the difference this year is they're in a pennant chase at the moment. If they wanted to be bold, they could have Burnes skip his next start and be available to start for the Brewers in September. Actually, he could even be in the post-season rotation if he has a couple great starts in September.

I will trust the Brewers to do what is best for Burnes and the team, as they have far more info on his medical history, how labored his delivery is, how many innings can they stretch him this year, etc. Maybe they keep that option open while they see what happens the rest of this road trip?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 9:54 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 433
Seems like with all the options we have for September, it doesn't make much sense to bring up Burnes. I'd rather that they at least wait until next year and see what the rotation needs are come Spring Training (maybe bring him up either a few weeks into the season or in June after super 2 has passed).

Guerra and Jungmann seem like near-certainties to get September call ups as soon as the minor league season is over (maybe even before), and Jungmann would be a nice long-relief option in order to limit starts if they start to get out of hand (basically have a shorter leash on Garza is his struggles continue, or any other pitcher). Not sure how Guerra fits in, but they definitely will call him up if only to see what they have for next year. Seems possible that he gets a start or two to see if he can re-establish himself, and have Jungmann or Hader available to go multiple innings if he isn't getting it done.

Does anyone know what Guerra's velocity has been like since being sent down?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 10:21 AM Post
Posts: 1704
Location: Madison, WI
Can't speak to his velocity but the results have been bad. High erea, poor whip, poor K to 9, still too many walks. If we're in contention I feel like he'll be low on the list to start.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 10:53 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 433
tmwiese55 said:
Can't speak to his velocity but the results have been bad. High erea, poor whip, poor K to 9, still too many walks. If we're in contention I feel like he'll be low on the list to start.


Guerra's results at AAA:

2.45 ERA
25.2 IP
16 K
10 BB
0 HR
1.36 WHIP

So not stellar or anything, but the ERA and WHIP aren't "high" or "poor", especially not for CS.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 10:53 AM Post
Posts: 5876
Greenleaf1 said:
Seems like with all the options we have for September, it doesn't make much sense to bring up Burnes.


It makes sense if you want to go all-out to make the playoffs. Burnes is better than Wilkerson, Guerra, Jungmann, or anyone else. Not even saying they SHOULD do this, but that would be the reason. They would obviously know what that means, starting his clock early. There's also no guarantee he could come up and be really good immediately. All these things need to be weighed.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 22, 2017, 1:41 PM Post
Posts: 1704
Location: Madison, WI
Greenleaf1 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Can't speak to his velocity but the results have been bad. High erea, poor whip, poor K to 9, still too many walks. If we're in contention I feel like he'll be low on the list to start.


Guerra's results at AAA:

2.45 ERA
25.2 IP
16 K
10 BB
0 HR
1.36 WHIP

So not stellar or anything, but the ERA and WHIP aren't "high" or "poor", especially not for CS.


I must have misread somehow. What i found on baseball reference was a 5.0 ERA but don't recall exacts on the other. Maybe I had some dyslexia going on with the categories or something, my bad if so.

ETA: figured it out. I put the .500 win % in the ERA category. 5.6 K to 9 though isn't ideal but yea for CS the rest is OK. Control was the issue up here more than anything and the BB rate isn't terrible, but also isn't good either in order to think it's still not an issue. But yea I'd think a key datapoint missing is the velocity.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 23, 2017, 9:02 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5318
Guerra was so far off that he obviously had something going on in his head. Hopefully the lower stress atmosphere of the minors allows him to correct that and he can come back strong. Unfortunately, no one will know until he's back in the majors if he's completely over it.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 30, 2017, 8:21 AM Post
Posts: 1806
So, Garza. Five decent innings against the second-worst team in baseball last week; otherwise he's a train wreck. Is there any earthly reason to keep him in the rotation when rosters expand? Could Guerra or Jungmann possibly be a worse bet as the fifth starter (I'm assuming Woodruff will be back as essentially #4)?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 30, 2017, 2:32 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5431
One thing the club could do is put Garza on irrevocable waivers. Just let him go. The team that claims him, gets him. Why do this?

Save roughly $2M - that's what Garza is owed for the rest of 2017.

Would anyone want Garza? Perhaps. They'd be on the hook for the $2M this year - and then have the option of keeping him for $5M in 2018. Someone looking for a back of the rotation guy might want him. Stress might. I mean, if we don't want him, would anyone else? He might just go unclaimed as someone would rather spend the money on someone else. But even guys like Garza seem to get paid decently in FA.

Obviously, waiving Garza would mean turning over his spot the last month to Jungmann or Guerra or Suter (assuming Woodruff gets a spot). But to be honest, that might be better. If Suter is back, I'd trust him over Garza. And Jungmann has been decent at AAA. Maybe give him a chance to step up.

Also, waiving Garza opens up a roster spot.

Just an idea.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 30, 2017, 4:04 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
reillymcshane said:
One thing the club could do is put Garza on irrevocable waivers. Just let him go. The team that claims him, gets him. Why do this?

Save roughly $2M - that's what Garza is owed for the rest of 2017.

Would anyone want Garza? Perhaps. They'd be on the hook for the $2M this year - and then have the option of keeping him for $5M in 2018. Someone looking for a back of the rotation guy might want him. Stress might. I mean, if we don't want him, would anyone else? He might just go unclaimed as someone would rather spend the money on someone else. But even guys like Garza seem to get paid decently in FA.

Obviously, waiving Garza would mean turning over his spot the last month to Jungmann or Guerra or Suter (assuming Woodruff gets a spot). But to be honest, that might be better. If Suter is back, I'd trust him over Garza. And Jungmann has been decent at AAA. Maybe give him a chance to step up.

Also, waiving Garza opens up a roster spot.

Just an idea.


I absolutely agree it should be considered. If he isn't claimed then what happens?

I could see the 5th rotation spot kinda being a bullpen game. Maybe Suter starts and when his spot in the order comes up they go to Guerra or Jungmann. We would be maximizing our offense, utilizing our strength of quantity of starting pitching, and you could also have a super quick hook on any guy if he doesn't have it a given day. You could also opt to leave a starter in if he's on fire on a given day. Regardless, the main idea of using pinch hitters early in games and utilizing our quantity of AAA SP that can serve as long relief to get through that 5th rotation spot when needed would be an interesting strategy and could very well work.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 30, 2017, 4:16 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5431
KeithStone53151 said:
reillymcshane said:
One thing the club could do is put Garza on irrevocable waivers. Just let him go. The team that claims him, gets him. Why do this?

Save roughly $2M - that's what Garza is owed for the rest of 2017.

Would anyone want Garza? Perhaps. They'd be on the hook for the $2M this year - and then have the option of keeping him for $5M in 2018. Someone looking for a back of the rotation guy might want him. Stress might. I mean, if we don't want him, would anyone else? He might just go unclaimed as someone would rather spend the money on someone else. But even guys like Garza seem to get paid decently in FA.

Obviously, waiving Garza would mean turning over his spot the last month to Jungmann or Guerra or Suter (assuming Woodruff gets a spot). But to be honest, that might be better. If Suter is back, I'd trust him over Garza. And Jungmann has been decent at AAA. Maybe give him a chance to step up.

Also, waiving Garza opens up a roster spot.

Just an idea.


I absolutely agree it should be considered. If he isn't claimed then what happens?

He is a free agent. We are responsible for the rest of his salary (although if someone signs him, they are responsible for the pro-rated league minimum - so probably around a 100k.

If no one claims him, it shows you he had minimal value. If they can't get him free now, no one is going to trade for him in the off season.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 30, 2017, 9:14 PM Post
Posts: 10777
Guerra pulled after just 58 pitches tonight. Could he be making the start Sunday instead of Garza?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 30, 2017, 9:48 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
Guerra pulled after just 58 pitches tonight. Could he be making the start Sunday instead of Garza?


I think suter probably has dibs on starting before Guerra at this point. I do suspect they saved his arm a bit for potential long relief in September. I'm curious how they'll balance aaa playoff run with mlb stretch run.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: 2017 Starting Pitching Rotation
Posted: August 30, 2017, 9:52 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 6043
Guerra over Suter for me.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14  Next  [ 265 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
cron
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test