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2017 bullpen

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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 19, 2017, 10:43 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Didn't Stearn more do that move with Davies in order to help whoever the minor leaguer was get a few more days of service time to get him to a certain milestone to help out the career minor leaguer? If anything it shows he's aware of these things and tries to do right by guys.

I'm pretty sure the Brewers kept Andy Wilkins longer than they would have, had he not been so close to getting 52 (?) days of service time, the minimum needed for a partial MLB pension.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 19, 2017, 10:44 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Didn't Stearn more do that move with Davies in order to help whoever the minor leaguer was get a few more days of service time to get him to a certain milestone to help out the career minor leaguer? If anything it shows he's aware of these things and tries to do right by guys.


From what was said at the time they just wanted an extra bench bat. It cost Davies money and service time. It did help Andy Wilkins, who did make the 43 days up total to get a minimum pension.

Wilkins still needed about a month's worth of service at the time he was called up to get it. I really don't think the plan was ever to keep Wilkins on the 25 man for a month to get him his pension -- there are loads of AAAA players I'm sure they would like to help out every year if they really care about that, and it would be much easier to do in September. If you want to option or outright a guy and you realize he is at 41 or 42 games, I can see them waiting a game or two as a courtesy, but I doubt it goes much beyond that.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 19, 2017, 10:50 AM Post
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And That said:
tmwiese55 said:
Didn't Stearn more do that move with Davies in order to help whoever the minor leaguer was get a few more days of service time to get him to a certain milestone to help out the career minor leaguer? If anything it shows he's aware of these things and tries to do right by guys.

I'm pretty sure the Brewers kept Andy Wilkins longer than they would have, had he not been so close to getting 52 (?) days of service time, the minimum needed for a partial MLB pension.


I'm not saying you're wrong but I don't understand why if that's actually the case that they wouldn't have just optioned him down when they wanted to and then called him back up in September to hit his mark, when it didn't affect the 25 man. He was pretty bad and they never did call him back up when rosters expanded.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 19, 2017, 10:51 AM Post
Posts: 679
Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
[laughing] This coming from the guy who is constantly telling me he was just joking and to lighten up, oh the irony.



[devil] The irony was you falling off your high horse.


Garza will get $180,000 annual pension.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 19, 2017, 10:55 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
[laughing] This coming from the guy who is constantly telling me he was just joking and to lighten up, oh the irony.



[devil] The irony was you falling off your high horse.


Ok! [smile]


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 19, 2017, 10:56 AM Post
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dacbrewers said:

Garza will get $180,000 annual pension.



Jeez, must be nice. I guess I chose the wrong career choice.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 19, 2017, 10:57 AM Post
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dacbrewers said:
Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
[laughing] This coming from the guy who is constantly telling me he was just joking and to lighten up, oh the irony.



[devil] The irony was you falling off your high horse.


Garza will get $180,000 annual pension.


Sad thing is a lot of these guys will be in desperate need of this by the time they collect on it.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 19, 2017, 12:05 PM Post
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That's probably true. He could always sell off a couple of his exotic cars.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 20, 2017, 2:31 AM Post
Posts: 10176
Back on topic, I don't really have a ton of confidence in the pen long -term, because it's mainly made up of roster churn guys. Barnes and Knebel look like keepers, and Feliz should be fine, but other than that you've got Milone now probably, and then Hughes, Marinez, and Drake, all of whom were DFA by their respective teams in the last year. Marinez was decent for us last year, and every so often you can get lucky with some of these guys, but to put things bluntly half of our pen is made up of guys that no one really wanted.

So certainly there's room for improvement. Frankly, guys like Hader, Woodruff and Lopez could probably come in and help the pen now, but there are service time concerns and you want to give them every chance to stick in the rotation first. Wang has pitched well so far for the Sky Sox, and ultimately I'd still like to take a shot on his upside over Milone and Suter, neither of which I'm particularly confident in.

Internally, if Garza pitches well, we could keep him in the rotation when Guerra returns and move Peralta to the pen where his stuff might play very well in short stints. That's of course if Peralta isn't continuing to pitch very well out of the rotation.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: April 20, 2017, 8:29 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Back on topic, I don't really have a ton of confidence in the pen long -term, because it's mainly made up of roster churn guys. Barnes and Knebel look like keepers, and Feliz should be fine, but other than that you've got Milone now probably, and then Hughes, Marinez, and Drake, all of whom were DFA by their respective teams in the last year. Marinez was decent for us last year, and every so often you can get lucky with some of these guys, but to put things bluntly half of our pen is made up of guys that no one really wanted.

So certainly there's room for improvement. Frankly, guys like Hader, Woodruff and Lopez could probably come in and help the pen now, but there are service time concerns and you want to give them every chance to stick in the rotation first. Wang has pitched well so far for the Sky Sox, and ultimately I'd still like to take a shot on his upside over Milone and Suter, neither of which I'm particularly confident in.

Internally, if Garza pitches well, we could keep him in the rotation when Guerra returns and move Peralta to the pen where his stuff might play very well in short stints. That's of course if Peralta isn't continuing to pitch very well out of the rotation.


Yeah, there are a lot of question marks in the pen. At this point, one of the goals of the pen is to gain value for trade, as closers are at a premium right now.

Feliz is an obvious flip candidate, and when he goes someone like Knebel will step into the closer role. If he can pitch well there, then he will have trade value like Thornberg did this past offseason if they choose to trade him at that time.

The bullpen is the last thing we need to address once the other pieces are in place, so once management feels we're ready to compete long-term, then they will look to stabilize the pen. Most of this will probably come from the load of talented pitchers on the farm. Some will make it as starters, but many of them will likely be our future bullpen. Until then, bring in undervalued guys and hope they have a good year and raise their value. Most relievers' numbers are so erratic this is actually a place you can do this, and naming someone "closer" is the easiest way to instantly build value in baseball.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 01, 2017, 10:19 AM Post

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same deal as before with tommy milone out and rob scahill in . . . the brewers still have only two relievers with minor league options in knebel and barnes . . . and both have been the club's most effective relievers a month into the season.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 01, 2017, 11:20 AM Post
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I know most of us have moved past beyond judging pitchers based on wins & losses, but one time I do think it can be helpful is when looking at relief losses on a team level.

After the month of April the Brewers have an MLB worst 8 relief losses with Tampa Bay & Kansas City close behind with 7 each.

Another stat I like for relievers is ShutDowns & MeltDowns, which they track at Fangraphs. A similar idea as saves & blown saves, but applicable to all relief outings, not just the 9th inning with a lead of 3 runs or less. Currently the best bullpen has been the Rockies with 31 ShutDowns against only 7 MeltDowns. The Brewers conversely have an MLB worst 21 MeltDowns with Toronto 2 behind (ahead of?) us at 19.

Anyway you paint it what has been a relatively encouraging month of April otherwise has been somewhat dampened by the bullpen's results. I agree with those that think the bullpen should & likely will be the last thing addressed throughout the rebuild but at this point the only guys in the pen I think have a real shot at being plus arms as part of a contending bullpen are maybe Barnes & Knebel.

Will be interesting to see how Stearns & company address this moving forward and what steps they will take to try and acquire some premium relief arms.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 02, 2017, 5:22 AM Post
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same deal as before with tommy milone out and rob scahill in . . . the brewers still have only two relievers with minor league options in knebel and barnes . . . and both have been the club's most effective relievers a month into the season.


Stearns is using this last one or two spots in the bullpen differently than we have seen in years past. He is claiming older AAAA relievers without options remaining and using them interchangeably. Goforth gets called up to fill a need for a week and then he gets waived. If someone picks him up or he leaves, oh well. He can find another guy like that. He keeps trying different guys to see what sticks. He did this a lot last year and a few have stuck, like Torres, Marinez. Drake may be one this year (nice K rate but WHIP is terrible).

However, if they don't produce, they will be gone. I think Marinez is likely the next one on the chopping block.

He'll continue to do this once the prospects, who will have options, start coming up.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 02, 2017, 7:12 AM Post
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Counsell may want to consider moving Barnes out of late inning role temporarily. He runs hot and cold so it should be a fluid situation all year. We could see Blazek back at some point too


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 02, 2017, 7:46 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Counsell may want to consider moving Barnes out of late inning role temporarily. He runs hot and cold so it should be a fluid situation all year. We could see Blazek back at some point too

Image

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 15, 2017, 3:47 PM Post

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here's the bullpen now, with number of minor league options remaining.

jacob barnes (2)
oliver drake (0)
neftali feliz (2, but with service time, able to refuse optional assignment)
jared hughes (0)
corey knebel (1)
rob scahill (0)
brent suter (2, already burned his 2017 option)
carlos torres (0)

already optioned, but can be recalled at any point during the season (requires a 10-day minimum stay in the minors unless replacing an injured player):

tyler cravy
taylor jungmann (is now being stretched out as a starter)

all other optioned pitchers on the 40-man are either starters or recovering from an injury.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 15, 2017, 4:44 PM Post
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I don't hate the state of the pen right now. Knebel looks great. Barnes has legit stuff. Drake has been getting people out for a while. Scahill seemed to get some analytics love when he came over last year. Torres has a decent track record. Suter has pitched well enough at AAA that he deserves a chance to make his case. I could see any of those guys being a keeper.

I like the Pirates guys least. I can't see a good pitcher in Feliz right now, and I never understood the Hughes pickup. But Feliz is probably worth trying to rehabilitate for flipping, and Cravy vs. Hughes is not exactly a battle of titans or a cause of sleepless nights.

The churn is encouraging. They're trying guys out and dumping them if they provide strong evidence that they can't hack it (Milone, Marinez).


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 16, 2017, 1:41 PM Post
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Coming up on a quarter of the way through the season and we still are "leading" MLB bullpens with 12 losses & 28 meltdowns. While the overall bullpen ERA of 3.88 (10th in MLB!) is somewhat encouraging the underlying 4.16 FIP/4.32 xFIP (both 16th in MLB) make it appear as if our bullpen has somehow slightly overachieved so far this season, as scary of a thought as that is.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 16, 2017, 1:43 PM Post
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The way he's pitching, pretty much any time Carlos Torres doesn't give up a run, I assume luck was involved.


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Offline  Re: 2017 bullpen
Posted: May 16, 2017, 1:59 PM Post
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gregmag said:
I don't hate the state of the pen right now..... Drake has been getting people out for a while.


So it is your fault then.

Hate the Drake [tongue]


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