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Time to Start Worrying About Villar?

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Offline  Time to Start Worrying About Villar?
#1

Posted: April 22, 2017, 1:40 PM Post
Posts: 3
Location: Milwaukee, WI
The Brewers top of the lineup (Villar, Thames and Braun) could be deadly if Villar can return to his 2016 form. Read into what some of the reasons are for Villar's slump below.

Read Full Story Here ------>
http://www.armchairallamericans.com/time-start-worrying-jonathan-villar/


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#2

Posted: April 22, 2017, 4:16 PM Post
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Posts: 61
It sure seems that Villar isn't seeing the ball well, but I'd suggest that some of it simply has to do with getting behind in the count. Fangraphs has him receiving a first pitch strike 73% of the time this season (it seems that ~ 60% is average). Maybe getting a few more favorable counts will help?


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#3

Posted: April 22, 2017, 5:23 PM Post
Posts: 3
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I've been noticing that too. I wish that he would be a little more disciplined, and get more favorable counts. His free swinging tendencies are concerning as well. It looks like he's getting back on track in the past two games though, which is good.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#4

Posted: April 22, 2017, 8:38 PM Post
Posts: 12301
Schmi755@uwm.edu said:
The Brewers top of the lineup (Villar, Thames and Braun) could be deadly if Villar can return to his 2016 form. Read into what some of the reasons are for Villar's slump below.

Read Full Story Here ------>
http://www.armchairallamericans.com/time-start-worrying-jonathan-villar/

Nope. No clicks for you.

Fan is short for fanatic.
I blame Wang.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#5

Posted: April 22, 2017, 9:22 PM Post
Posts: 9986
logan82 said:
Schmi755@uwm.edu said:
The Brewers top of the lineup (Villar, Thames and Braun) could be deadly if Villar can return to his 2016 form. Read into what some of the reasons are for Villar's slump below.

Read Full Story Here ------>
http://www.armchairallamericans.com/time-start-worrying-jonathan-villar/

Nope. No clicks for you.


Why? I read the article along with the Buy or Sell one and thought both were pretty well written and insightful, it's relevant to this board and he contributed to the conversation when replied to here as well, so it's not like he just plugged and baied.

Obviously no one likes spam and there's a fine line between advertising and spamming that you need to avoid crossing, especially here. But I don't see how this does. Just a young guy who loves Wisconsin sports trying to get his work out there a little bit.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#6

Posted: April 22, 2017, 10:14 PM Post
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Posts: 10019
You don't worry about baseball players in April. Mid May is the earliest.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#7

Posted: April 22, 2017, 10:22 PM Post
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Posts: 4649
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Schmi755@uwm.edu said:
I've been noticing that too. I wish that he would be a little more disciplined, and get more favorable counts. His free swinging tendencies are concerning as well. It looks like he's getting back on track in the past two games though, which is good.


Except he has been disciplined at the plate he has an OOZ% below league average. His problem is the same as Broxton's he is letting to many first pitch strikes go by. I wish batting coaches would stop telling leadoff hitters to take the first pitch.

Weeks had this problem and now Villar and Broxton have this problem. If you are consistently letting the pitcher get ahead by throwing over a strike you are playing from behind as a hitters. Average, OBP and Slugging all go down after the pitcher gets ahead of a batter. Once at two strikes it is in the pitchers favor and a hitter normally will be an out at about 80% of the time.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#8

Posted: April 22, 2017, 11:09 PM Post
Posts: 1226
R-E-L-A-X.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#9

Posted: April 23, 2017, 6:44 AM Post
Posts: 10647
The guy he displaced currently has a .937 OPS and 10 RBI. Just sayin.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#10

Posted: April 23, 2017, 6:56 AM Post
Posts: 10647
Ennder said:
You don't worry about baseball players in April. Mid May is the earliest.


He's leading the league in two categories: AB and strikeouts and after drawing 79 walks last year, he has one more (5) than Hernan Perez (4) right now. 78 AB's is enough to be concerned even in April. But I'll go another 40 AB's and see if his recent slightly better stretch here continues. By the way, he still hasn't gotten a hit as a RH batter (0 for 20). Most damning is that of the 18 games he's started, he's fanned multiple times in 12 of them. I don't think even Chris Carter fanned 2 times or more in 2/3 of his games last year.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#11

Posted: April 23, 2017, 7:17 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Ennder said:
You don't worry about baseball players in April. Mid May is the earliest.


He's leading the league in two categories: AB and strikeouts and after drawing 79 walks last year, he has one more (5) than Hernan Perez (4) right now. 78 AB's is enough to be concerned even in April. But I'll go another 40 AB's and see if his recent slightly better stretch here continues. By the way, he still hasn't gotten a hit as a RH batter (0 for 20). Most damning is that of the 18 games he's started, he's fanned multiple times in 12 of them. I don't think even Chris Carter fanned 2 times or more in 2/3 of his games last year.


It doesn't matter. Don't worry about April. Go look at last years april leaders in futility and all of the established guys turned it around. This is just what April is, guys struggle. Don't make more of it than it is.

Last year in April Russel Martin hit .150 with 31 K in 67 PA. The next 4 months the Ks went back to normal and he hit .230, .262, .292 and .286 before slumping again in September. April is just a weird month for stats.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#12

Posted: April 23, 2017, 7:33 AM Post
Posts: 10255
83 PAs is enough to worry about a 37.3% K rate. His OOZ rate is up and his contact rate is down. He is taking more 1st pitch strikes. He should at least be moved down in the order so maybe the "having to take a pitch as the leadoff hitter" thing stops.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#13

Posted: April 23, 2017, 7:53 AM Post
Posts: 10647
Ennder said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Ennder said:
You don't worry about baseball players in April. Mid May is the earliest.


He's leading the league in two categories: AB and strikeouts and after drawing 79 walks last year, he has one more (5) than Hernan Perez (4) right now. 78 AB's is enough to be concerned even in April. But I'll go another 40 AB's and see if his recent slightly better stretch here continues. By the way, he still hasn't gotten a hit as a RH batter (0 for 20). Most damning is that of the 18 games he's started, he's fanned multiple times in 12 of them. I don't think even Chris Carter fanned 2 times or more in 2/3 of his games last year.


It doesn't matter. Don't worry about April. Go look at last years april leaders in futility and all of the established guys turned it around. This is just what April is, guys struggle. Don't make more of it than it is.

Last year in April Russel Martin hit .150 with 31 K in 67 PA. The next 4 months the Ks went back to normal and he hit .230, .262, .292 and .286 before slumping again in September. April is just a weird month for stats.


Villar doesn't fall into the category of "established" off one full season as a regular. Comparing him to Russell Martin who's been essentially a number 1 catcher since 2006 with a proven track record over time is a mistake. For that very reason, we should be concerned about Broxton and Santana, neither of whom is established either but who are getting regular AB's in the middle of the order and not hitting a lick while striking out at alarming rates.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#14

Posted: April 23, 2017, 8:00 AM Post
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Posts: 5660
Being concerned is one thing. Overreacting is another. There's just no reason to mess with Villar at this point. If we are mid May, headed into June and he still stinks, maybe start reacting.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#15

Posted: April 23, 2017, 8:26 AM Post
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Villar has 1420 PA as a major league player, he is established. His career OBP is .329 so that is probably the floor of what to expect given it was better each of the last 2 years. He is starting the year in a slump, this is normal April stuff happening all over the league.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#16

Posted: April 23, 2017, 8:53 AM Post
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The only thing to really worry about it that in a year plus, he's still a stupid baserunner. But I guess if Carlos Gomez taught us anything, it's that you can't teach an old dog new tricks.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#17

Posted: April 23, 2017, 10:18 AM Post
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Posts: 4649
Location: Phoenix, AZ
endaround said:
83 PAs is enough to worry about a 37.3% K rate. His OOZ rate is up and his contact rate is down. He is taking more 1st pitch strikes. He should at least be moved down in the order so maybe the "having to take a pitch as the leadoff hitter" thing stops.


Agree but his OOZ rate isn't that far off from his career rate. What is concerning is his z-contact% which is below league average and below his career rates. Maybe moving down in the order and not taking the first pitch helps him get started.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#18

Posted: April 23, 2017, 11:47 AM Post
Posts: 9986
JohnBriggs12 said:
The guy he displaced currently has a .937 OPS and 10 RBI. Just sayin.


That same guy had a .948 OPS last year after as many plate appearances as he's had this year and still managed to finish the year as a AAA replacement level player. Just sayin.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar? ----->
#19

Posted: April 23, 2017, 12:38 PM Post
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Posts: 3874
nate82 said:
Schmi755@uwm.edu said:
I've been noticing that too. I wish that he would be a little more disciplined, and get more favorable counts. His free swinging tendencies are concerning as well. It looks like he's getting back on track in the past two games though, which is good.


Except he has been disciplined at the plate he has an OOZ% below league average. His problem is the same as Broxton's he is letting to many first pitch strikes go by. I wish batting coaches would stop telling leadoff hitters to take the first pitch.

Weeks had this problem and now Villar and Broxton have this problem. If you are consistently letting the pitcher get ahead by throwing over a strike you are playing from behind as a hitters. Average, OBP and Slugging all go down after the pitcher gets ahead of a batter. Once at two strikes it is in the pitchers favor and a hitter normally will be an out at about 80% of the time.

Yea Broxton drives me nuts with how many times he looks at pitches right down the middle and then ends up in two strike counts.


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Offline  Re: Time to Start Worrying About Villar?
#20

Posted: April 23, 2017, 1:18 PM Post
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He seems to be seeing the ball a bit better this series. Two walks so far today is a good sign.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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