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Pitching staff adjustments?

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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#81

Posted: May 10, 2017, 8:16 AM Post
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Greenleaf1 said:
Peralta is seeming more and more like just a non tender candidate at the end of the year if he even makes it that long on the team. There's no way he makes it to the end of the year in the rotation given how he's been pitching lately.

He was back to his old ways tonight. Overthrowing everything and falling way off the mound with every pitch.


I think he'll be in the rotation for a while to see if he can build any trade value. If he can put together a couple of months of good baseball (the way he did at the end of last season), someone in need of a fifth starter for a playoff run might give us something for him. If he pitches poorly, then he will be demoted to the pen to open up a spot for one of the prospects. Unless he becomes absolutely lights out in the pen, I can't imagine we'd pay him $6M+ next year to be a reliever.

So, I'm hopeful that he can "find it" for the next couple of months and we're able to get something for him in trade. Otherwise, he'll probably be signing a low value free agent contract with someone else this offseason. Typing that last sentence makes it easy to see why hoping for a trade might be a pipe dream.


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#82

Posted: May 10, 2017, 2:18 PM Post
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What we are seeing is the real Wily Peralta. Just sort of reinforces what a lot of people are saying.

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/5/10/1 ... ly-peralta


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#83

Posted: May 10, 2017, 2:57 PM Post
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The toughest thing for Milwaukee will be getting through the season. Woodruff's start will require him to move to the bullpen at some point. Hader obviously too. Lopez must be option 1 right now if replacing Milwaukee's rotation beyond spot starts. Id like to see him called up with Nelson or Peralta sent down for Bullpen. Maybe you can find Woodruff in the bullpen to begin shortening his innings for 10 to 20games then replace him with Nelson or Peralta whomever you sent down. Let him work on starting again for mid to late July.


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#84

Posted: May 10, 2017, 4:04 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
The toughest thing for Milwaukee will be getting through the season. Woodruff's start will require him to move to the bullpen at some point. Hader obviously too. Lopez must be option 1 right now if replacing Milwaukee's rotation beyond spot starts. Id like to see him called up with Nelson or Peralta sent down for Bullpen. Maybe you can find Woodruff in the bullpen to begin shortening his innings for 10 to 20games then replace him with Nelson or Peralta whomever you sent down. Let him work on starting again for mid to late July.

Woodruff threw 158 innings last year. The rule of thumb is increase workload no more than 20%. That would be about 31.6 more innings - which brings you up to about 190.

So I don't know if it is necessary to limit Woodruff's innings this year. He averages a little less than 6 innings a start. Keep him to about 30 starts and you are probably okay.

Of course, the team might not want him throwing that much. In which case the bullpen might be an option. But I'd rather just put him in the rotation and let him get as much experience this year as possible (assuming he's called up at some point).


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#85

Posted: May 10, 2017, 4:08 PM Post
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I have been against moving Peralta to the bullpen ever since the topic was brought up. However at this point I think he should be moved and perhaps he can become an effective bullpen piece. I agree paying Peralta $6 million or so to be a reliever is a bit much but the payroll will be low again next year and maybe some other team will see value with Peralta as a reliever and the Brewers can get something in return.


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#86

Posted: May 10, 2017, 9:39 PM Post
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I dont see Peralta gaining value with a bullpen stint. Say he does under 3ERA while in it. The price he's paid makes him a non-tender next season. So Peralta is a rental. His days are numbered as a SP at the ML level.
Thats really why Nelson needs to be the moved to bullpen. His value with upcoming Arb lowers, but his trade valuewith the same kind of performance would bring back more.

To point the innings restriction on Woodruff. If he comes out dealing to begin his career the chances for a Brewers post season increase a lot. Just as the post season would begin hehe'd be done on the limit limely a week or 2 earlier. I just feel you need to lower his IP by 25IP in the bullpen vs starting to be ready in that scenario to keep him Starting in the post season. If it doesnt work out he's not reaching his limitations with 2weeks to go and can finish in the 180s which is enough to make the Starter full season next year. Id think 1month send him down to stretch out and call up again right after AS game would do it.


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#87

Posted: May 10, 2017, 9:53 PM Post
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Both Peralta and Nelson should be pen guys. I don't care about young value for Peralta. He is what he is at this point.

Guerra and Woodruff should take the rotation spots.


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#88

Posted: May 11, 2017, 7:41 AM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
I dont see Peralta gaining value with a bullpen stint. Say he does under 3ERA while in it. The price he's paid makes him a non-tender next season. So Peralta is a rental. His days are numbered as a SP at the ML level.
Thats really why Nelson needs to be the moved to bullpen. His value with upcoming Arb lowers, but his trade valuewith the same kind of performance would bring back more.

To point the innings restriction on Woodruff. If he comes out dealing to begin his career the chances for a Brewers post season increase a lot. Just as the post season would begin hehe'd be done on the limit limely a week or 2 earlier. I just feel you need to lower his IP by 25IP in the bullpen vs starting to be ready in that scenario to keep him Starting in the post season. If it doesnt work out he's not reaching his limitations with 2weeks to go and can finish in the 180s which is enough to make the Starter full season next year. Id think 1month send him down to stretch out and call up again right after AS game would do it.


To the bolded part regarding Peralta. He won't necessarily get the arby increase if the Brewers let him go and someone signs him as a free agent in the offseason. I could see someone giving him a shot at a rotation if they sign him for a million or so, just not for what he'll likely get in arby. I agree that the likely scenario seems to be that he will just be let go by the Brewers at the end of the season. Whether he finishes the year in the rotation or the pen will probably be determined by his performance, the performance of others, and whether or not we have any injuries.

Regarding Nelson, when Guerra's back, they should just send him to the minors to see if he can get straightened out as a starter. If he can't, then we can move him to the pen in the minors and let him get used to the adjustment there before calling him back up. Pitching from the pen is different than pitching as a starter. Some pitchers adjust quicker than other, so I'd like to see Nelson figure this out in the minors rather than the majors.

Regarding Woodruff's innings. If the playoffs are the consideration, then I'm sure they could make him the "fifth starter" and find a start or two to skip to limit his innings. I know there are cases where SP started their MLB career in the pen, but there are a lot more cases where that didn't happen. I prefer keeping good starting pitchers in the rotation and don't really like the thought of moving them to the pen unless they prove they're not effective starters. If all we can get out of Woodruff this year is half a season in the bullpen, then don't waste the service time.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#89

Posted: May 12, 2017, 12:23 PM Post
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ultimately, as with all speculative roster moves, the players will decide, as others have said. however, what fun is that? I tried to do a roster decision flow chart based off of realistic contingencies, but it was too cumbersome to describe without visuals so here are some extended thoughts on what to do with our current rotation.

Preface:
* this does not account for any possible injuries that unfortunately, may happen.
* contract info from sportrac
* all moves should be seen through the eyes of forming a contending window beginning next year and maintaining that window as long as we can.
* obviously if you get an overwhelming offer for anyone- you pull the trigger. also obviously the market is dictated by what you can actually get. this is factoring in likely trade-values for each player in each contingency.

ROTATION VARIABLES:

A) Matt Garza
If Garza is continuing to deal (not likely) than keep him in the rotation. Garza's main value to the Brewers at this point is what he could potentially bring back in a trade mid-summer. That only happens as a viable starter, if he can't do that and is moved to the bullpen, he would not have the track record of success to really net anybody of note even if he does okay there. as it were, I doubt he would bring much back regardless. More importantly, however, he is keeping the Brewers from finding out what we have in some of the younger guys this season. If by July he has reverted back to Garza of old and is not able to build off his last two outings by stringing together 4-5 more quality starts, it is unlikely that he could build enough trade value even if he turns it on after the all-star break and is time to cut the cord. simply put, come the All-Star break there is no place for Struggling Garza on this team, regardless of standings- it would be a sunk cost and he should be released.

B) Jimmy Nelson & Wily Peralta
Nelson is signed through 2020 & Peralta through 2019
As mentioned many times on these forums, both pitchers have been theorized by multiple sports analysts to be prime suitors for the bullpen. Much like Thornburg & Smith, who found moderate success as starters, when moved to the pen were lights out and actually increased their perceived trade value. both Nelson & Peralta have been given longer opportunities to succeed as starters than the aforementioned brewer alumni and still have not lived in to their potential. but time is running out as the prospects at AAA are pushing on the door and would expect some callups in the latter half of the year. unless they start stringing together some outstanding outings it makes a lot of sense to try both of them in relief and give someone else a shot in the rotation. Because Peralta's contract time is nearer, I would give him the first trial if both are floundering.

C) Guerra
Guerra needs to be given every opportunity to succeed as a starter. Although signed on a rookie scale through 2021, at 32, he is on the wrong side of 30. even if he continues excelling where he left off last year, it is more likely than not, that he would not be able to maintain that success and health through age 36 when the contract runs out. I think he is a ‘trade high,’ rather than a fixture for the rebuild. If he does well and is able to establish himself the rest of this year as a quality starter, his value greatly increases and you pull the trigger and trade him in the offseason for high end prospects. though with little track record and a recent injury, it is doubtful you'd get much for him now. there is little risk in letting him play out as a starter. if he does not do well upon his return. there is always a move to the bullpen later in the season. And like Nelson & Peralta, there is a strong case (perhaps even stronger), as many speculated before his Thames'esq emergence last year, that his stuff would translate extraordinarily well out of the bullpen and could be a dominant reliever.

D) Anderson & Davies
Both pitchers have not been projected by most analysts to have high ceilings. both are cost-controlled, mid/back end starters; Anderson signed through 2020 & Davies signed through 2021, respectively. I think davies might be an interesting 'change of pace' bullpen guy (IMHO also Suter’s niche potential), but realistically both of their values are most tied to finding sustained success as starters. there is value for sure as back of the rotation inning eaters, but unless something has changed where the Brewers see either of them as potential top of the rotation potential (w/ any recent developments that we're not privy to), both should be looked at as future trade pieces. We have plenty of guys in the upper minors who more than likely can provide what they do who need a chance to see if they could do anything more. However, at this point, the trade value for Anderson or Davies is not very high. Since it seems they've already established a solid back of the rotation as their floor, there is little risk in letting them ride out as starters the rest of the year and provide average innings for our young, but competitive team. however, if either of them show success this year through the trade deadline, they should be traded while they're hot for all we can get.

E) Wilkerson/Espino/Burgos
These three guys are no longer prospects in the sense that they’re developmental peak has more than likely already been reached. With that said, we don't really know what that peak is at the MLB level. All three have found varied success in the upper minors, and need to be given a shot to see what they can do in the big show. Most likely all are AAAA guys, like Cravy, who could be serviceable back-end bullpen arms or spot starters, but it is possible, especially with Espino that they are currently in their prime and could be long-term pieces or build some value this season to be dealt after the season or next year’s trade deadline. A fair comparison might be Michael Fiers, who was entering in his prime, killing the minors and was given a shot, made the most of it, and the Brewers sold high and were able to unload for prospects. As it is, these three currently offer little in trade value, but could potentially net some value with meaningful success at the next level.

F) Hader/Woodruff/Lopez
At some point, if these higher end prospects continue to progress, they will be given a shot. And due to their higher ceilings will be given a much longer shot than the aforementioned trio, but we need to see what we have first in the older guys. Because, assumingly once Hader/Woodruff/Lopez come up, there won’t be many opportunities for those other guys to see what they can do. As tempting it is for the fanbase to see our top prospects come up early a la Arcia last year, I think it is more sensical to use this flex year to more closely evaluate and potentially expand one’s assets, especially since all three have options and there is little rush.

G) Bullpen
There is plentiful MLB bullpen fodder depth. So it is important to give ample time to sort through who is fodder and who is cream, to mix metaphors. Seemingly so far, only Knebel and Barnes have demonstrated that they are long-term pieces as both are signed through 2021/2022, respectively. So let’s see what we’ve got. Drake seems for real, his elite K rates in the minors have translated to the majors and has been doing well, hopefully he can continue as he’s signed through 2022 and could form the back end of a great 1,2,3. Feliz, a free agent after the year, will be given a long shot at re-discovering his game in order to be dealt at the trade deadline. Regardless, we have too many bullpen guys to evaluate, so at the trade deadline we need to deal him for whatever we can get or release him. Torres and Hughes are only signed through 2018 making them probable trade candidates and should definitely be dealt at any point before the trade deadline next year. Neither mark to be top-end guys, but if they play well this season, could provide some bolstering to another bullpen at the deadline or after the season. But since we would likely get little for them anyway, see last year’s Blaine Boyer, if either of them aren’t performing well by July I would DFA them and give a shot to their fellow, but longer team controlled, ‘back-end bullpen fodder but may be more’ bucket. This includes Scahill, Marinez, Cravy, Blazek, Wang, Suter, Ramsey and Nolin & Barrios if they ever get healthy. These guys all probably have similar ceilings and floors and would be fairly interchangeable as back-end bullpen arms to pull from during our contending years. If they haven’t already, each should be given shots as spots allow, but could also be nice guys to package in larger deals, much like Wagner was last year.


Some Minor Moves FWIW:
* Not sure if Wilkerson & Ramsey are down in AA the same reason that Lopez & Jungmann are, but what else do either of them have left to prove down there? Ramsey has been lights out and has a 1.58 ERA in 85 innings of relief at AA over the past three years! I would swap both of those guys up for Oliver & Kohlscheen.

* I would only use Suter only in the pen, as that is where he is best utilized and where his future is and let Wilkerson have his starts.

* I would drop Colton Cross down to A ball and bring up Parker Berberet, who like Ramirez has shown a deft feel for pitching so far.

* I think you could remove Jungmann & Houser from the 40 man without either being claimed, so if there was an opportunity to pick anyone else up off waivers in the near future, I say grab em and take the risk.


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#90

Posted: May 15, 2017, 2:42 PM Post
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Would like to see Peralta and Nelson moved to the pen. They have had the opportunity to make adjustments to be a viable starter and they just aren't. It's time to see if their stuff can play up in the pen.

Bring up Woodruff and Wilkerson to fill their spots in the rotation Send two of Marinez, Scahill and Drake back down.


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#91

Posted: May 16, 2017, 8:05 AM Post
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Money doesn't really matter outside of trade value, none of these guys really have any trade value so I don't think that matters.

We know the defense is bad and it isn't the friendliest park so lets try to neutralize some of these small samples since ERA doesn't tell a true story until you have over a full season of results.

Davies - 4.82 xFIP, career ERA-xFIP 0.15. Most likely Davies has pitched like a 5 ERA guy on the year. He has actually pitched worse in May than in April even though the ERA doesn't show it. He was so good for stretches of last year and is so young that I think we still give him a full season. He is the only guy we have now that I expect might be part of the next playoff Brewers team.

Peralta - 4.74 xFIP career ERA-xFIP 0.20. Peralta has also pitched like a 5 ERA guy. He hasn't really shown any promise since 2014 and lefties simply kill him. He should be a middle reliever and I hope they move him to the pen soon or just cut bait if they don't want to do that. He is not a major league quality starter.

Anderson - 4.41 xFIP career ERA-xFIP -0.08. Anderson looks like a mid 4 ERA guy. He is pitching like a back of the rotation type starter. Nothing great but better than the other options above him. I think he sticks in the rotation.

Nelson - 4.22 xFIP career ERA-xFIP -0.02. Nelson is the best of this bunch this year. He also profiles like a back of the rotation type starter.

Garza - 3.61 xFIP career ERA-xFIP -0.05. Garza looks for real so far. The sample is too small obviously but if he can keep this up he will actually bring something back in a trade mid season.

This mostly matches up with what I expected. When Guerra comes back I would send Peralta down and move him to the bullpen. I think Davies is the youngest and has the most upside so you don't do anything to him. Trade Garza mid season to make room for a young arm to start learning the major leagues.

Garza is pitching like a #3 starter. Anderson and Nelson like a 4 or 5. Peralta and Davies have been below replacement level. A pretty brutal rotation of guys just good enough to not want to just get rid of.


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#92

Posted: May 16, 2017, 8:51 AM Post
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I think Wily Peralta could be a fantastic closer or at least late inning relieft pitcher and I have said so for years. He has better stuff than Knebel/Thornburg as just an example and if he knows he only has to go one inning I could see him being very effective throwing 98/99 mph coming out of the pen. To a lesser degree the same is true of Nelson. Those guys just need to be used correctly.

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#93

Posted: May 22, 2017, 5:39 AM Post
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Time for Woodruff to take Anderson's spot?


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#94

Posted: May 22, 2017, 6:12 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Time for Woodruff to take Anderson's spot?


Why? I'm not sure Woodruff outpitches Anderson who's been average. He's got a .322 BABIP against which his .20 above his career. Everything else is about normal for him. Eventually those grounders will turn into outs. They are just finding holes (yesterday notwithstanding). If he was horrible then maybe you make a move.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#95

Posted: May 22, 2017, 7:07 AM Post
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homer said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Time for Woodruff to take Anderson's spot?


Why? I'm not sure Woodruff outpitches Anderson who's been average. He's got a .322 BABIP against which his .20 above his career. Everything else is about normal for him. Eventually those grounders will turn into outs. They are just finding holes (yesterday notwithstanding). If he was horrible then maybe you make a move.


The Padres even hit Anderson. Right now he is the one on the hotseat. But he still gets at least two more starts, imo. What is safe threshold for Super 2?


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#96

Posted: May 22, 2017, 7:39 AM Post
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Roderick said:
homer said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Time for Woodruff to take Anderson's spot?


Why? I'm not sure Woodruff outpitches Anderson who's been average. He's got a .322 BABIP against which his .20 above his career. Everything else is about normal for him. Eventually those grounders will turn into outs. They are just finding holes (yesterday notwithstanding). If he was horrible then maybe you make a move.


The Padres even hit Anderson. Right now he is the one on the hotseat. But he still gets at least two more starts, imo. What is safe threshold for Super 2?


It's based on being among the top 22% in service time among those with between 2 and 3 years of service time, so there's no firm safe threshold. Between 2009 and 2014, the threshold was between 2.146 and 2.122 years of service time. It could obviously go even higher or lower, depending on the rate of callups, how well they stick in the majors etc. So at least 50 days into the season, probably make it 60+ to be safe(ish).


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#97

Posted: May 22, 2017, 7:51 AM Post
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I cant see the brewers making any more rotation changes for a while unless its injury related


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#98

Posted: May 22, 2017, 8:19 AM Post
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Roderick said:
homer said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Time for Woodruff to take Anderson's spot?


Why? I'm not sure Woodruff outpitches Anderson who's been average. He's got a .322 BABIP against which his .20 above his career. Everything else is about normal for him. Eventually those grounders will turn into outs. They are just finding holes (yesterday notwithstanding). If he was horrible then maybe you make a move.


The Padres even hit Anderson. Right now he is the one on the hotseat. But he still gets at least two more starts, imo. What is safe threshold for Super 2?


In 2007, Braun was held back to avoid Super 2 status, and he came up on the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend. I'd say Anderson is on a very short leash.


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Offline  Re: Pitching staff adjustments?
#99

Posted: May 22, 2017, 8:30 AM Post
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brewmann04 said:
I cant see the brewers making any more rotation changes for a while unless its injury related


Why not? Anderson can't get through 5 innings. He's lost the feel of his secondary pitches to the tune of an 1.148 OPS against in his last four starts. Doesn't he still have an option too? I can understand being patient with him if they didn't have a guy at AAA who's showed command. It's not like Woodruff is 21 or 22. He's 24.


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Posted: May 22, 2017, 8:35 AM Post
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Not sure how serious the Brewers will be with buying at the deadline if competing, but I am betting a Lopez or Woodruff will find themselves in the rotation pretty fast if a pitcher is struggling in the rotation. While you can disagree with buying there isn't an excuse to be throwing garbage out there every five days when our record is shiny. Davies/Anderson need to pitch better or get them out of there. They struggle to get through 5 innings.


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