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I Can't Believe the Standings

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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#41

Posted: May 10, 2017, 10:15 PM Post
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As I write this, we are 18-16, .5 games back of Cincy (18-15), and 1.5 games behind St. Louis (19-14).

Expected W/L, though, says we should in first place by .5 games!


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#42

Posted: May 18, 2017, 2:03 PM Post
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I STILL can't believe this division. I'm old enough to know that repeating as WS champs is rare. I believe in the NL the last to do it was the Big Red Machine. In spite of that I was still convinced the Cubs would do it.

Now I'm starting to doubt it. All those young guys batting sub-Mendoza in mid May! Arietta and Hendricks looking human. Maddon sticking with Schwarber at lead off because of cybermetrics!

Is it reasonable to scratch the Bucs off for the year? (Polonco went down to injury yesterday)

I get the Reds' games and I'm convinced they're legit. But for the long haul?

I haven't seen many Brewer games so far but I would be lying if I said I wasn't shocked that you are ahead of the Cubs, and I'm so down on the Cardinal FO and manager that it clouds my natural fan optimism.

What's your take at this juncture ?


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#43

Posted: May 18, 2017, 2:07 PM Post
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At what point of the season do we start thinking, "Hey now... something is happening?"

I'm thinking Memorial Day for, "ok, its getting VERY interesting..."
Father's day for, "Ok, now its real"
and 4th of July for, "WS or bust!!!" [wink]


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#44

Posted: May 18, 2017, 2:08 PM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
Last year was the golden year for them Cubs in this competitive stretch in my opinion. They will turn it around to some degree and I fully expect them to make the playoffs, but they aren't all that special so far.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#45

Posted: May 18, 2017, 3:22 PM Post
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Since this is not the "optimistic" thread, I am free to say this. July 4th is WAY too early to declare WS or bust. That's only (more or less) the halfway point of the season. I've seen teams collapse in the last couple weeks, let alone the last three months.

I wouldn't write off the Cubs by any means. 3/4 of the season left, just way too early to make any conclusions.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#46

Posted: May 18, 2017, 3:28 PM Post
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Projecting at a 1/3 chance at the playoffs with a somewhat favorable schedule over the next month. Tons of depth and potential players at AAA that could supplement the MLB roster down the stretch.

But the pitching is not likely to get any better without help. It will be interesting to see if they consider trading some of the offensive depth for pitching depth.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#47

Posted: May 18, 2017, 3:41 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Last year was the golden year for them Cubs in this competitive stretch in my opinion. They will turn it around to some degree and I fully expect them to make the playoffs, but they aren't all that special so far.
I can't agree with that. The WC's could both come from the West. There just ain't enough whipping boys in the Central. Four teams close in talent beating on each other all year! Even the Pirates are liable to play .500 ball.

The same scenario is playing out in the AL Central where at 5 games back the Royals are that division's Pirates.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#48

Posted: May 18, 2017, 5:03 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
Since this is not the "optimistic" thread, I am free to say this. July 4th is WAY too early to declare WS or bust. That's only (more or less) the halfway point of the season. I've seen teams collapse in the last couple weeks, let alone the last three months.

I wouldn't write off the Cubs by any means. 3/4 of the season left, just way too early to make any conclusions.


I read somewhere that the Cubs had a stretch of 20 - 25 last year. No way they should be written off.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#49

Posted: May 18, 2017, 5:04 PM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
I guess I don't really see the negativity towards the pitching. If this offense is going to excel then we don't need that great of pitching. The pitching has been fine. Will it continue or get better to offset some potential offensive regression? I could see it.

This team has played like a better version of the 2010 team that won 77 games. This team has a notably better pitching staff(and for now a more productive offense). Not sure about defense, but I'd guess this one has a better defense just looking at it face value.

Right now it has played like and looks like a legitimate contender. I agree better pitcher would make that a much easier thing to imagine, but I don't think it has been as terrible as people are making it out to be.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#50

Posted: June 02, 2017, 1:57 PM Post
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Myday2001 said:
At what point of the season do we start thinking, "Hey now... something is happening?"

I'm thinking Memorial Day for, "ok, its getting VERY interesting..."
Father's day for, "Ok, now its real"
and 4th of July for, "WS or bust!!!" [wink]


In this month 4 of the 5 teams have taken their turn in 1st. and there's no sign of anybody running away with the division so I concur that "It's getting VERY interesting" [wink]

I will say this: That Cub team we saw last year is gone, never to be seen again. Arietta and Hendricks ain't having another career year along with the many phenoms hitting .300 with power. The defense is sporadic as well. Biggest change is having bad route, noodle arm Jon Jay in CF. I don't think Schwarber will end up sub-mendosa, but he has proved to be human.

(of course, they could still win the division)


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#51

Posted: June 15, 2017, 1:12 AM Post
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After the finale with the Cardinals, the Brewers have a 7 game homestand against the Padres and Pirates, then on the road against the Braves and Reds, and back home against the Marlins. The only series between now and July 24th that looks especially daunting on paper is a 3 game series at Yankee Stadium right before the break.

The Cubs don't have much tougher opponents, but they do have a 4 game set in Washington and play only 3 home games between now and July 4th.

If we're going to prove we really are in this race, we need to make hay now.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#52

Posted: June 15, 2017, 7:34 AM Post
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After the all star break the first set of games is pretty soft too. August is pretty awful though so I hope we don't become big time buyers.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#53

Posted: June 15, 2017, 8:50 AM Post
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Not to be a reality check on the optimism, but I think in order to make the playoffs this year, the Brewers are going to have to win the NL Central. They are currently 6 games back of the 2nd wild card spot.

I don't doubt that the Brewers look like at least the 2nd best team in the NL Central this season which is exciting, but do Brewer fans really believe that they will be able to hold of the defending WS Champ Chicago Cubs for the next 3 and 1/2 months to win the division?


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#54

Posted: June 15, 2017, 8:59 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Not to be a reality check on the optimism, but I think in order to make the playoffs this year, the Brewers are going to have to win the NL Central. They are currently 6 games back of the 2nd wild card spot.

I don't doubt that the Brewers look like at least the 2nd best team in the NL Central this season which is exciting, but do Brewer fans really believe that they will be able to hold of the defending WS Champ Chicago Cubs for the next 3 and 1/2 months to win the division?


Brewers and Cubs seem pretty similar this year: decent offense and suspect pitching. I don't care if they're the defending whatever of anything, 2016 has come and gone. If Stearns can find a reliever or two that doesn't blow chunks, this is somehow Milwaukee's division to lose. Which they probably will and to the Cardinals.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#55

Posted: June 15, 2017, 9:01 AM Post
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I still think a lot of us expect at some point for the light to magically flick on for the Cubs and they'll start running away with this thing. If we were playing in any other division, we'd be 5+ games back like the Wild Card. I figured this team had the potential to play .500 baseball and they've been generally sticking to that which still puts us ahead of the rebuilding curve by at least a full season.

I guess the biggest fear would be Stearns being a heavy buyer at the deadline when it's just prudent to stay the course and continue to let the young guys develop. Thankfully nothing I've really seen from him in his roster moves would make me think he'd do that.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#56

Posted: June 15, 2017, 9:08 AM Post
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Brewers fans fearful of winning. Imagine that. I guess it's to be expected with such a dreadful franchise history. This division can be won. I don't care about other divisions. I don't care about the Cubs last seasons World Series. The Brewers shouldn't either.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#57

Posted: June 15, 2017, 9:15 AM Post
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I'm more surprised at the Cubs record than I am the Brewer's record. While I didn't quite expect the Brewers to be 3 games above .500 on June 15th, I would have expected them to have to be at least 10 games above .500 at this point in order to have a 2 game lead. If their bullpen was stronger and could have held on to some of those leads that were blown, they could have been 4 or 5 games in 1st.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#58

Posted: June 15, 2017, 9:26 AM Post
Posts: 41
What are the biggest changes from last year to this year?
1B: Carter (lots of HRs, not much else) to Thames/Aguilar - big improvement.
2B: Gennett platoon to Villar - looked shaky early this season, but Villar is improving nicely. I'd call this a draw.
3B: Perez - Shaw - big improvement
RF: Having Santana play regularly has been a big improvement.
C: Maldonado is serviceable - Pina/Bandy - huge improvement.
Over all the offense is nicely improved and the defense is also better.
The starting pitching has been more consistent.
The bullpen is the area that has suffered the most, and it is the area most easily addressed. This can be addressed fairly easily before the playoffs, and this team has already played well against the best teams in MLB. It would be nice to have a lock-down ace starting pitcher, but in a best-of-7 series I like the chances our starting rotation gives us. Knebel has been lights out. Bridging the gap between starter and closer is the area that needs attention and this team could win a lot more games. The offense will score against any pitcher. This is a fun team to watch.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#59

Posted: June 15, 2017, 9:29 AM Post
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Not fearful of winning, but I do personally think it's probably still the Cubs' division to lose. I just see too much talent on that side to not put together at least 85-90 wins over 162 games. The only way I can see a .500ish season is if their rotation really doesn't improve, which I think is unlikely. Even if they don't, they have the prospects to go out and fix that at the deadline.

I agree with Patrick that the Cubs being under . 500 at this point is a lot more surprising than us being 3 games over, and frankly I think our 1st place status has a lot more to do with that right now than us just suddenly being a team to beat.

With that said, they've defied my expectations to this point and I hope they continue to do so.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#60

Posted: June 15, 2017, 9:52 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
Brewers fans fearful of winning. Imagine that.


No one is fearful of winning, that's ridiculous. It's about planning and investing wisely. Many believe it better to plan and invest in the team 2-3 years down the line rather than sell some of the future to invest in this current team.

It's all about which team you think is more likely to win. Nothing is for certain, this year or in the future. But most would say the odds of fielding a true contender are higher in a couple years than it is right now.

I am not Shea Vucinich


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