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I Can't Believe the Standings

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Offline  I Can't Believe the Standings
#1

Posted: May 02, 2017, 2:20 PM Post
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All 5 teams within 2 games of each other? I really expected the Cubs would run away with it again. I expected the Reds minus Bruce and Dat Dude to rule the cellar all year.

Good chance that the evident parity of the Central will put the Kybosh on any WC spots. (good news for LA and SF)

Another shocker: The Mets are toast.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#2

Posted: May 02, 2017, 2:30 PM Post
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I think the Giants are going to be in big trouble too. That roster got old fast.

The Reds pitching will collapse. I think this Cubs team is weaker than last years but it will still find separation sometime this summer and comfortably take 1st.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#3

Posted: May 02, 2017, 2:32 PM Post
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Dead Simmons said:
I really expected the Cubs would run away with it again.

I still expect them to run away with it. Their hitters and pitchers are underperforming. We are less than 1/6 of the way through the season. They will be better.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#4

Posted: May 02, 2017, 2:40 PM Post
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Keep in mind their pitching and/or fielding overperformed last year too so some of this is just regression. Not all of it but some of it. That was not the best defensive team in history and the data suggested they were.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#5

Posted: May 02, 2017, 2:43 PM Post
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Ennder said:
I think the Giants are going to be in big trouble too. That roster got old fast.

The Reds pitching will collapse. I think this Cubs team is weaker than last years but it will still find separation sometime this summer and comfortably take 1st.
I feel that way too (but hope against it) As to the Giants, who I don't much follow: What happened to them? I do know about Bumgarner's motorcycle folly, but little else.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#6

Posted: May 02, 2017, 2:48 PM Post
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The Cubs are still very good but they had a lot of luck with their pitching the last couple years. Lackey is old and is about done. Arietta has fallen back to earth. Lester has a lot of mileage too. Hitters are catching up to Hendricks. There is no reason the Brewers can't be in the WC picture though. They made the most impactful acquisitions of anybody and other guys are just emerging.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#7

Posted: May 02, 2017, 2:51 PM Post
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Ennder said:
Keep in mind their pitching and/or fielding overperformed last year too so some of this is just regression. Not all of it but some of it. That was not the best defensive team in history and the data suggested they were.
Interesting. I think another valid issue is the way teams "buck up" to face the champs. Even millionaires don't like to be embarrassed!


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#8

Posted: May 02, 2017, 3:35 PM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
The Cubs are still very good but they had a lot of luck with their pitching the last couple years. Lackey is old and is about done. Arietta has fallen back to earth. Lester has a lot of mileage too. Hitters are catching up to Hendricks. There is no reason the Brewers can't be in the WC picture though. They made the most impactful acquisitions of anybody and other guys are just emerging.

It's funny how trading away their best reliever for a bench guy to plug a gaping roster hole and desperately grabbing a guy from Korea to replace the defending HR champ turns into the most impactful acquisitions, but that's baseball. This has the makings of a fun team. If the staff stabilizes the Brewers could hang in there. If not, They'll be getting lots of big offers for a number of players.

The standings are great for NL central fans. Nobody out and nobody running away with it. The longer things stay close, the better the casual fan interest.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#9

Posted: May 02, 2017, 3:43 PM Post
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The Cubs haven't been impressive this year and they are a very interesting team to figure out. That offense is really prone to duds, but the pitchers will allow them to easily win the Central. I don't think they are the power house some like to think they are though.

As far as the Brewers place in the standings come back at the end of May. If they are still right there then maybe I will listen to the "every year is special" speech from Briggs(that isn't an insult either just for the record). If this offense is for real and a few pitchers can stabilize us you never know the impact a Lopez/Woodruff/Hader could do down the stretch. Not to mention Guerra hasn't hardly played. Never underestimate the power of rookie pitchers before the league figures them out.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#10

Posted: May 02, 2017, 3:57 PM Post
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Schwarber missed nearly all of last year. He was very good in a the World Series but that was a mere 20 plate appearances. He still has fewer than 400 major league plate appearances. Eventually he'll get it going but it might take a bit longer. Contreras is still basically a rookie and the league has caught up with him somewhat. Zobrist is still dangerous but he's on the down side. Baez made strides but lacks plate discipline. Russell's good but he's been over-hyped too. Don't get me wrong, it's still a formidable lineup, but they were made to seem invincible by the year they had in 2016.

The Wild Card is wide, wide open. The 2nd place finisher in the East between Washington and Mets figured to be a lock but the Mets have fallen on hard times. Nats could be this year's Cubs which might eliminate the rest of that division.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#11

Posted: May 02, 2017, 4:02 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
That's kinda been my thought too, the ever-optimistic view for this team entering the season was that the offense would do enough during the regular season to keep us hanging around 500 and we could replace the 1-3 worst starters with Hader/Woodruff/Lopez AND those guys would hit the ground at a full on sprint. That was the only way we could be in the wildcard picture in September, and so far all things are going about as well as could be reasonably expected.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#12

Posted: May 02, 2017, 4:09 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
The Cubs haven't been impressive this year and they are a very interesting team to figure out. That offense is really prone to duds, but the pitchers will allow them to easily win the Central. I don't think they are the power house some like to think they are though.

As far as the Brewers place in the standings come back at the end of May. If they are still right there then maybe I will listen to the "every year is special" speech from Briggs(that isn't an insult either just for the record). If this offense is for real and a few pitchers can stabilize us you never know the impact a Lopez/Woodruff/Hader could do down the stretch. Not to mention Guerra hasn't hardly played. Never underestimate the power of rookie pitchers before the league figures them out.


Cal Eldred made his first start of 1992 on July 19, and the Brewers went on to win in 12 of his 14 starts en route to 92 wins. If one of the rookie starters comes up and has close to that kind of impact, all bets are off.

BTW, every season is special. A complete rebuild guarantees nothing in 3, 5 or any number of years you choose down the road. Winning is hard to do especially for a small market team. When things break your way, you can't just assume better chances will be just around the corner.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#13

Posted: May 02, 2017, 4:30 PM Post
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Dead Simmons said:
Ennder said:
I think the Giants are going to be in big trouble too. That roster got old fast.

The Reds pitching will collapse. I think this Cubs team is weaker than last years but it will still find separation sometime this summer and comfortably take 1st.
I feel that way too (but hope against it) As to the Giants, who I don't much follow: What happened to them? I do know about Bumgarner's motorcycle folly, but little else.


Pence is 34 now, Posey is 30, Belt is 29 and never turned into the guy they thought he would, Crawford is 30, Span is old. Joe Panik is the only young impact player to come up since that second World Series win in 2012. So 4 years of no impact youth is finally catching up to them.

Here is the age of their positional roster

C - 30,33
1B - 29
2B - 26
SS - 30
3B - 22 (Arroyo just came up)
OF - 30,33,34

Then the bench has old guys like Aaron Hill(35) and Mike Morse(35) and Drew Stubbs(32)


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#14

Posted: May 02, 2017, 4:36 PM Post
Posts: 1806
We haven't been talking about the Cardinals. They're a deep, well-designed team with no glaring weaknesses. Their hitters make hard contact. Their pitchers throw strikes. They have good young talent, and their declining stars, Wainwright and Neck Tatts, still have value.

We play basically a quarter of our games against the Cards and Cubs. That's going to make the WC very tough, because I'm pretty sure both of those teams are clearly better than we are. I'm in the camp that says this start is mainly getting me more pumped for next year. We need to figure out our rotation, and that's going to require some trial and error this year.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#15

Posted: May 02, 2017, 6:04 PM Post
Posts: 831
Ennder said:
Dead Simmons said:
Ennder said:
I think the Giants are going to be in big trouble too. That roster got old fast.

The Reds pitching will collapse. I think this Cubs team is weaker than last years but it will still find separation sometime this summer and comfortably take 1st.
I feel that way too (but hope against it) As to the Giants, who I don't much follow: What happened to them? I do know about Bumgarner's motorcycle folly, but little else.


Pence is 34 now, Posey is 30, Belt is 29 and never turned into the guy they thought he would, Crawford is 30, Span is old. Joe Panik is the only young impact player to come up since that second World Series win in 2012. So 4 years of no impact youth is finally catching up to them.

Here is the age of their positional roster

C - 30,33
1B - 29
2B - 26
SS - 30
3B - 22 (Arroyo just came up)
OF - 30,33,34

Then the bench has old guys like Aaron Hill(35) and Mike Morse(35) and Drew Stubbs(32)


That's what happened at the end of the bonds era Giants team too, except even worse. It was just a bunch of really old guys and bonds.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#16

Posted: May 02, 2017, 7:51 PM Post
Posts: 5880
Well, there's 5 months to go, so standings mean very little at this point.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#17

Posted: May 02, 2017, 8:29 PM Post
Posts: 6413
Location: Kenosha, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
MrTPlush said:
The Cubs haven't been impressive this year and they are a very interesting team to figure out. That offense is really prone to duds, but the pitchers will allow them to easily win the Central. I don't think they are the power house some like to think they are though.

As far as the Brewers place in the standings come back at the end of May. If they are still right there then maybe I will listen to the "every year is special" speech from Briggs(that isn't an insult either just for the record). If this offense is for real and a few pitchers can stabilize us you never know the impact a Lopez/Woodruff/Hader could do down the stretch. Not to mention Guerra hasn't hardly played. Never underestimate the power of rookie pitchers before the league figures them out.


Cal Eldred made his first start of 1992 on July 19, and the Brewers went on to win in 12 of his 14 starts en route to 92 wins. If one of the rookie starters comes up and has close to that kind of impact, all bets are off.


It isn't like it is unheard of either. Guerra pitched over his head(no offense to him) and Jungmann did it for most of his rookie season. Rookies can put up fake numbers for months before teams figure them out. I don't expect it to happen and surely don't expect us to be all that close to a playoff spot, but you never know.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#18

Posted: May 02, 2017, 8:30 PM Post
Posts: 831
Discussing today with some Brewer fans whether the Crew should call heads or tails to determine if we play here or in LA for the pre-wild card game with the Dodgers. Also trying to figure out who goes against Kershaw.


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Online  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#19

Posted: May 03, 2017, 8:01 AM Post
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Games have been played, players have played, the standings are not fake, neither are the numbers the players are putting up. It's what has happened.


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Online  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
#20

Posted: May 03, 2017, 8:45 AM Post
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turborickey said:
Games have been played, players have played, the standings are not fake, neither are the numbers the players are putting up. It's what has happened.


Whoa

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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