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I Can't Believe the Standings

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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 12:14 AM Post
Posts: 748
I keep believing this team is not really a contender, but they keep proving me wrong deeper and deeper into the season. I do however still believe they are playing for the Central at best. We just would have to add too many pieces to challenge a team like the Dodgers in a playoff series baring pitching injuries to the top of their rotation. I am truly enjoying this team, and this season, but still don't feel like we should be buyers. I'm in the camp of ride it out, or maybe bring up some internal pieces. I just don't want any future success jeopardized.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 6:03 AM Post
Posts: 9490
wildcat83 said:
I keep believing this team is not really a contender, but they keep proving me wrong deeper and deeper into the season. I do however still believe they are playing for the Central at best. We just would have to add too many pieces to challenge a team like the Dodgers in a playoff series baring pitching injuries to the top of their rotation. I am truly enjoying this team, and this season, but still don't feel like we should be buyers. I'm in the camp of ride it out, or maybe bring up some internal pieces. I just don't want any future success jeopardized.


Every time the Cubs keep pulling within a game or half a game or whatever I think, "Ok finally reality again, but it was fun while it lasted."

Then things keep going back the other way again. I guess I'm not waiting so much for us to collapse as I am for the Cubs to wake up and go on a tear. I don't know enough about them to know why they've been so mediocre for 90 games, whether it's just terrible luck or something more. I just can't bring myself to believe they are suddenly a .500 quality team after being a 100 win quality team a year ago . And it's not like they were just an aging team due for a collapse. They still have young talent.

I am good with whatever happens. I just don't want to see them sacrifice a foundation for a 1-2 year window.

Truth be told it will probably take about the lead we have right now (3.5G) on September 1st for me to think, 'Wow, this could actually be happening ' But that's what makes this season so fun. No expectations. Just an 'enjoy the moment' environment for 162 games.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 7:26 AM Post
Posts: 2246
Then things keep going back the other way again. I guess I'm not waiting so much for us to collapse as I am for the Cubs to wake up and go on a tear. I don't know enough about them to know why they've been so mediocre for 90 games, whether it's just terrible luck or something more. I just can't bring myself to believe they are suddenly a .500 quality team after being a 100 win quality team a year ago . And it's not like they were just an aging team due for a collapse. They still have young talent.

The Cubs' starting rotation is pitching nowhere near as well as they were last season. Many of their veteran position players (Heyward, Zobrist) have been fighting nagging injuries. Montero proved to be a clubhouse cancer that didn't feel he got enough credit for last year's success considering he was basically replaced by Contreras down the stretch and in the playoffs. And while the Cubs do have young talent, much of it has struggled at times this season as young talent often does. Probably doesn't help that Russel is dealing with a very public and confusing divorce process with his wife.

Also, they really miss Fowler at the top of their lineup and playing CF every day - Almora and others are fine there defensively, but those young guys can't set the table in front of Bryant and Rizzo yet. That loss would be much less pronounced had Scwharber been the offensive player everyone thought he was - his struggles this season have really hurt them. I still think he's a very talented hitter, but aside from 1B he shouldn't be playing in the field. I wonder if they missed a golden opportunity this offseason to trade him to the AL for another starting pitcher or boatload of prospects when his value couldn't have been higher. People forget that he really hasn't had to face much MLB pitching that had a set gameplan with how to pitch him (couple months in late 2015 and essentially postseason due to his knee injury).


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 7:37 AM Post
Posts: 9490
Fear The Chorizo said:
Then things keep going back the other way again. I guess I'm not waiting so much for us to collapse as I am for the Cubs to wake up and go on a tear. I don't know enough about them to know why they've been so mediocre for 90 games, whether it's just terrible luck or something more. I just can't bring myself to believe they are suddenly a .500 quality team after being a 100 win quality team a year ago . And it's not like they were just an aging team due for a collapse. They still have young talent.

The Cubs' starting rotation is pitching nowhere near as well as they were last season. Many of their veteran position players (Heyward, Zobrist) have been fighting nagging injuries. Montero proved to be a clubhouse cancer that didn't feel he got enough credit for last year's success considering he was basically replaced by Contreras down the stretch and in the playoffs. And while the Cubs do have young talent, much of it has struggled at times this season as young talent often does. Probably doesn't help that Russel is dealing with a very public and confusing divorce process with his wife.

Also, they really miss Fowler at the top of their lineup and playing CF every day - Almora and others are fine there defensively, but those young guys can't set the table in front of Bryant and Rizzo yet. That loss would be much less pronounced had Scwharber been the offensive player everyone thought he was - his struggles this season have really hurt them. I still think he's a very talented hitter, but aside from 1B he shouldn't be playing in the field. I wonder if they missed a golden opportunity this offseason to trade him to the AL for another starting pitcher or boatload of prospects when his value couldn't have been higher. People forget that he really hasn't had to face much MLB pitching that had a set gameplan with how to pitch him (couple months in late 2015 and essentially postseason due to his knee injury).


Isn't Schwarber the guy that the Yankees really wanted for Chapman, rather than Torres?


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 12:25 PM Post
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Posts: 795
Location: Missouri
wildcat83 said:
Dead Simmons said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Still no belief in the Brewers in the Chicago media. It's all about the Cubs failures not an exciting young team just 90 miles away. Let them be blissfully ignorant.

Chicago is the farthest NE I've ever been. I had no idea that it was only 90 miles from Milwaukee. But to your point: Even the talking sports heads speak of the lack of coverage on Mil......and then a week later they will bring it up again, and a week later.............


Going to make it up to Miller Park someday?
I would love to see it some day, along with Wrigley and Fenway. [wink]


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 2:51 PM Post
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Cubs turn a 3-0 hole into a 5-3 lead late against Tampa. Pretty bad managing by the Rays in both the 6th and 7th innings. And an awful 1-2 pitch to Jay for a 3 run homer. Still a couple innings left but the Cubs are on the way to winning today. Hopefully we can keep pace tonight!


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 2:58 PM Post
Posts: 709
wildcat83 said:
I keep believing this team is not really a contender, but they keep proving me wrong deeper and deeper into the season. I do however still believe they are playing for the Central at best. We just would have to add too many pieces to challenge a team like the Dodgers in a playoff series baring pitching injuries to the top of their rotation. I am truly enjoying this team, and this season, but still don't feel like we should be buyers. I'm in the camp of ride it out, or maybe bring up some internal pieces. I just don't want any future success jeopardized.

Most of us still are acting like the groundskeepers from Major League. It's like someone asked 'Who wants to lead the NL centeral?' and the other teams took a step back.

There's nothing that jumps out about the Brewers as being a big outlier as to what a player could reasonably contribute. The team hasn't had long winning or losing streaks, and they are right on their Pythagorean record, so no undue luck. It's not unreasonable to think this could be an 84 to 88 win team. It's up to the Cubs and Cards to try to beat that.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 3:06 PM Post
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuWQfMGjZF4


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 3:24 PM Post
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Even if the cubs take off, we are 3 games out of the wild card and the Rockies are not a very good team. There are two paths to a playoff.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 6:26 PM Post
Posts: 2428
Baseball prospectus playoff odds which accounts for the fact that the Cubs are expected to be a better team has our playoff odds up to 38% as of today and the Cubs at 57%. Their simulation of the rest of the season expects the Cubs on average to finish with 2 more wins for the season. All signs point to fun baseball still in September!


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 05, 2017, 6:47 PM Post
Posts: 818
I think fangraphs has us around 20%


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Online  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 5:49 AM Post
Posts: 10553
It's a mistake to assume that because this team is ahead of schedule that they shouldn't​ do what they can to win this year. Nothing is guaranteed 2, 3, or 4 years down the road. By then the look of the division will be completely different.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 8:33 AM Post
Posts: 5648
JohnBriggs12 said:
It's a mistake to assume that because this team is ahead of schedule that they shouldn't​ do what they can to win this year. Nothing is guaranteed 2, 3, or 4 years down the road. By then the look of the division will be completely different.


Just as nothing is guaranteed they'll win the WS this year if they trade a boat-load of top prospects for Quintana or anyone else.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 8:34 AM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
It's a mistake to assume that because this team is ahead of schedule that they shouldn't​ do what they can to win this year. Nothing is guaranteed 2, 3, or 4 years down the road. By then the look of the division will be completely different.


Just as nothing is guaranteed they'll win the WS this year if they trade a boat-load of top prospects for Quintana or anyone else.


But every year is special.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 10:47 AM Post
Posts: 7190
I like that we have played 3 more games than most of the division. If means teams not only have to play well to catch us, but have to do it over a longer stretch of time


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 10:57 AM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
DHonks said:
I like that we have played 3 more games than most of the division. If means teams not only have to play well to catch us, but have to do it over a longer stretch of time

I was also thinking about this last night. An additional small advantage of having played more games than the other teams is that teams like the Cubs have three additional games they have to either play during a doubleheader or on what would otherwise be a day off. So the Brewers have a little extra rest here and there than their competition to get through the end of the long summer. Certainly doesn't hurt.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 11:21 AM Post
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brwrsfan said:
Cubs turn a 3-0 hole into a 5-3 lead late against Tampa. Pretty bad managing by the Rays in both the 6th and 7th innings. And an awful 1-2 pitch to Jay for a 3 run homer. Still a couple innings left but the Cubs are on the way to winning today. Hopefully we can keep pace tonight!
Any team can bust out a good win and then drop 3 straight. I hate to tell you this brwr, but the Brewers are the team to beat in this division, not the Cubbies. Even the talking heads are starting to admit it...and they HATE IT! [wink]


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 3:38 PM Post
Posts: 748
If the playoffs started today, if you're in the National League and have a winning record you're in the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 3:43 PM Post
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The Brewers are now guaranteed the division lead at the break
The Brewers are closer to the Nationals then the Cubs are to the Brewers
The Brewers are just two back of Colorado who is the last wild card team
The Brewers run differential is better than the Cubs, Cards, and Rockies combined.


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Offline  Re: I Can't Believe the Standings
Posted: July 06, 2017, 4:24 PM Post
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stalton said:
If the playoffs started today, if you're in the National League and have a winning record you're in the playoffs.

I had to check on this one, and you're right. Wow, just wow.


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