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Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"

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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#21

Posted: May 23, 2017, 7:47 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
I predict your predicted offense to be quite below average.


I agree with this. It's not realistic to believe every top prospect in their system will pan out and be contributing starters in 3 years. I disagree with setting 2020 as the target and not deviating from that. What if somehow they remain hot for the next month and a half and are still at the top of the standings? I know this is also a bit unrealistic, but who knows...what if that happens? I know I'm in the minority on this message board when it comes to this train of thought, but I say you sacrifice some of those prospects, bolster the starting rotation and make a run. I would rather do that than hope that these unknown commodities in the farm system can put us in the same position 3 years from now.

If they start to falter this year (which is likely), but come back next year and in our contending position in July 2018, then go for it then. My belief is that basically any time you are in playoff position in July, regardless of what your expectations were at the start of the season or where you are in the "rebuilding" phase, you should be looking to make trades to win now. Again, I know that's not a popular thought on this board and many will argue that you can't build a consistent contender that way. I understand that argument, but I also think there is way too much confidence put in some of the prospects when the reality is that you are lucky if 50% of those prospects hit and that there is no guarantee that you will be a consistent contender by waiting on the farm system to mature. I don't have a problem with a 3-5 year rebuilding plan if during the "rebuilding" years the team never contends, but if the team has some unexpected success in one of the rebuilding years, don't blow that opportunity.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#22

Posted: May 23, 2017, 11:34 AM Post
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I don't think the Brewers are going to pass up any opportunities to contend, including if they can continue playing great ball this summer.

However, I don't think there is anybody that thinks our rebuilding efforts are complete and it's time to trade in all our chips and go for it this year either.

If we have patience and wait for the rebuild to come to full fruition, the fruit it could bear would be the Brewers first ever World Series Championship.

If we jump the gun too much, we could risk peaking as simply contenders for the 2nd wild card for a couple of seasons before our window starts to close.

There are obviously many variable to all this, but it still is dangerous to start to put the cart before the horse.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#23

Posted: May 23, 2017, 11:48 AM Post
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To further prove that Starting Pitchers are in the midst of their prime closer to 30 years out I went back 10 years to 2006.

Top 13 starting pitchers of 2006
1. Johan Santana, 27
2. Roy Halladay, 29
3. Ben Sheets, 27
4. Randy Johnson, 42
5. Pedro Martinez, 34
6. Jake Peavy, 24
7. Andy Pettite, 33
8. Rich Harden, 23
9. Jason Schmidt, 33
10. King Felix, 20
11. Brandon Webb, 27
12. Mark Prior, 23
13. John Smoltz, 38

The average age came out to 29.2, almost identical to the Top 13 pitchers of 2016.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#24

Posted: May 23, 2017, 11:59 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
To further prove that Starting Pitchers are in the midst of their prime closer to 30 years out I went back 10 years to 2006.

Top 13 starting pitchers of 2006
1. Johan Santana, 27
2. Roy Halladay, 29
3. Ben Sheets, 27
4. Randy Johnson, 42
5. Pedro Martinez, 34
6. Jake Peavy, 24
7. Andy Pettite, 33
8. Rich Harden, 23
9. Jason Schmidt, 33
10. King Felix, 20
11. Brandon Webb, 27
12. Mark Prior, 23
13. John Smoltz, 38

The average age came out to 29.2, almost identical to the Top 13 pitchers of 2016.


What are you using to define the 'top' starting pitchers? Randy Johnson had an ERA of 5.00 in 2006. Take him out and your number drops from 29.2 to 28.1.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#25

Posted: May 23, 2017, 12:08 PM Post
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We're in a different era now. Baseball is trending younger, including top flight pitching. 2006 might as well be 1976, it was a completely different era.

Top 15 Pitchers now: Fulmer is 24, Strasburg is 28, Archer is 28, Duffy is 28, deGrom is 28, Keuchel is 29, Stroman is 26, Jose Fernandez would be 25. Half of them under 30, trending younger

Top 16-30 Pitchers now: McCullers is 23, Leake is 29, Taijuan Walker is 24, Jesse Hahn is 27, Bundy is 24, Quintana is 28, Triggs is 28, Carlos Martinez is 25, Eduardo Rodriguez is 24, Severino is 23, Jerad Eickoff is 26. 11 of 15 players from Top 16-30 are under 30

10 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 26 or younger
17 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 28 or younger

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... position=P

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#26

Posted: May 23, 2017, 12:35 PM Post
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Zack Greinke is still better than all of those guys.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#27

Posted: May 23, 2017, 12:40 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
We're in a different era now. Baseball is trending younger, including top flight pitching. 2006 might as well be 1976, it was a completely different era.

Top 15 Pitchers now: Fulmer is 24, Strasburg is 28, Archer is 28, Duffy is 28, deGrom is 28, Keuchel is 29, Stroman is 26, Jose Fernandez would be 25. Half of them under 30, trending younger

Top 16-30 Pitchers now: McCullers is 23, Leake is 29, Taijuan Walker is 24, Jesse Hahn is 27, Bundy is 24, Quintana is 28, Triggs is 28, Carlos Martinez is 25, Eduardo Rodriguez is 24, Severino is 23, Jerad Eickoff is 26. 11 of 15 players from Top 16-30 are under 30

10 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 26 or younger
17 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 28 or younger

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... position=P


Almost every one of the pitchers you listed as Top 16-30 are VERY inconsistent. Quintana is the only one I'd consider to have anywhere near a playoff caliber ACE type track record and he's 28. You pretty much illistrated my point.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#28

Posted: May 23, 2017, 12:47 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
To further prove that Starting Pitchers are in the midst of their prime closer to 30 years out I went back 10 years to 2006.

Top 13 starting pitchers of 2006
1. Johan Santana, 27
2. Roy Halladay, 29
3. Ben Sheets, 27
4. Randy Johnson, 42
5. Pedro Martinez, 34
6. Jake Peavy, 24
7. Andy Pettite, 33
8. Rich Harden, 23
9. Jason Schmidt, 33
10. King Felix, 20
11. Brandon Webb, 27
12. Mark Prior, 23
13. John Smoltz, 38

The average age came out to 29.2, almost identical to the Top 13 pitchers of 2016.


What are you using to define the 'top' starting pitchers? Randy Johnson had an ERA of 5.00 in 2006. Take him out and your number drops from 29.2 to 28.1.



[laughing] Maybe I shouldn't of laughed, but I did. I think he's just finding the oldest, dustiest players he can with name recognition and hoping people buy it. Pitchers primes are not 30.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#29

Posted: May 23, 2017, 12:59 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Almost every one of the pitchers you listed as Top 16-30 are VERY inconsistent. Quintana is the only one I'd consider to have anywhere near a playoff caliber ACE type track record and he's 28. You pretty much illistrated my point.


Going based on Fangraphs rankings for Pitchers WAR right now. What formula are you using? 2015 All-Star rosters? Sincerely asking. Doesn't matter what formula you plug in, FIP, ERA+, BABIP, the top pitchers are trending younger

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 2017&ind=0

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#30

Posted: May 23, 2017, 1:03 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
3and2Fastball said:
We're in a different era now. Baseball is trending younger, including top flight pitching. 2006 might as well be 1976, it was a completely different era.

Top 15 Pitchers now: Fulmer is 24, Strasburg is 28, Archer is 28, Duffy is 28, deGrom is 28, Keuchel is 29, Stroman is 26, Jose Fernandez would be 25. Half of them under 30, trending younger

Top 16-30 Pitchers now: McCullers is 23, Leake is 29, Taijuan Walker is 24, Jesse Hahn is 27, Bundy is 24, Quintana is 28, Triggs is 28, Carlos Martinez is 25, Eduardo Rodriguez is 24, Severino is 23, Jerad Eickoff is 26. 11 of 15 players from Top 16-30 are under 30

10 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 26 or younger
17 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 28 or younger

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... position=P


Almost every one of the pitchers you listed as Top 16-30 are VERY inconsistent. Quintana is the only one I'd consider to have anywhere near a playoff caliber ACE type track record and he's 28. You pretty much illistrated my point.


I think both sides have a point here. If you take all pitchers 26 years old and under, there might be one guy who is considered an ace. Further, it is difficult to predict which pitchers of the dozens of guys 26 and younger will be an ace when they are 29. However, if you look at all the 28/29 year olds in the league, it is much easier to predict their next 2 or 3 years of production. Perhaps they fall off slightly from their 28 year old peak, but they are usually still aces at 31/32.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#31

Posted: May 23, 2017, 1:25 PM Post
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Oxy said:

I think both sides have a point here. If you take all pitchers 26 years old and under, there might be one guy who is considered an ace. Further, it is difficult to predict which pitchers of the dozens of guys 26 and younger will be an ace when they are 29. However, if you look at all the 28/29 year olds in the league, it is much easier to predict their next 2 or 3 years of production. Perhaps they fall off slightly from their 28 year old peak, but they are usually still aces at 31/32.


This is a fair assessment. Some pitchers have their peak seasons between 23-27 years old, but it's the true 200+ IP Top-of-the-Rotation starters who can sustain their prime from 28-33 years old.

Brewer fans may remember thinking that Yovani Gallardo was a shiny new "ACE" for our contending team in 2008, ripe from the minor leagues with one MLB season of 110 Ip under his belt. Yo was only 22 in 2008. He simply didn't have the MLB experience or consistency yet to head a playoff caliber rotation. Without CC (who was 28 that summer BTW), Brewers have little chance at the playoffs that year, even if Yovani was healthy the whole season.

Yovani had his peak career seasons at 25 and 26 years old. Those are the only 2 years of his career where he had over 200 IP. He's now still only 31 years old and his career is likely barely hanging on. I would say that Yovani never really reached his ceiling of a true ACE, mostly due to the fact that he could not sustain his consistency.

And those are the type of pitchers that are the greatest commodity in baseball. The trade market for these types of pitchers prove it every July.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#32

Posted: May 23, 2017, 4:15 PM Post
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Most pitchers peak somewhere between 26 and 28 and the peak lasts some random number of years. It is very rare for a pitchers peak year to be age 30 or 31 though. They might stay good through that age range, but it isn't their peak. Signing pitchers over 30 to any type of long contract is very risky. It paid off for the Cubs last season but just as often it doesn't work.

But again their is no one way to win a World Series. Some teams like the Royals do it with bad starting pitching but a good bullpen. Some like the most recent Giants team just leans heavily on one super ace. There isn't a script to this though having a decent bullpen seems to be a pretty important piece of the pie.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#33

Posted: May 23, 2017, 4:36 PM Post
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Like others have said, pitchers age even earlier than hitters. If you think of a prototypical front-line starter as someone who throws hard and strikes a lot of guys out, those skills peak in the mid to early 20s. Guys like Woodruff and Hader are probably at their peak velocity levels right now and when they hit the majors that will only trend downwards. Of course other skills like secondary pitches and control peak a bit later, but still well before a guy hits 30. It's only a very special few pitchers who remain above average starters into their mid 30's and that's why we remember them so highly.

advocates for the devil


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#34

Posted: May 23, 2017, 4:57 PM Post
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DHonks said:
In 2011, when the Cards knocked us out of the playoffs, they won while pulling their starter quite often before the 5th inning. A rotation needs to be good enough to make the playoffs, but then a pen can take over

And the Royals made it to the World Series in back to back years with a mediocre rotation, but a great bullpen.

Boston won their last title on the back of a great offense, Lester, and a good bullpen.

Cleveland last year was one game from a title with pretty much just Kluber and a very good pen in the playoffs.

It's a different game today when it comes to the playoffs. Gotta have enough starting pitching to simply make the playoffs, but once there, a bullpen is as important or more to keep advancing. It does help though to have at least one really good starter to go with an upper tier pen.

I think this is why so many teams are trying to load up on the bullpen. Given how hard it is to develop, sign, and/or trade for really good starters, many teams view trying to build a great bullpen as a different option. Try getting 3-4 hard throwing guys who can come out of the pen with a quality ERA/WHIP/K-BB ratio and let them take over after the 5th or 6th inning in the playoffs vs trying to have multiple starters go 7 innings or longer.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#35

Posted: May 23, 2017, 7:13 PM Post
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Ennder said:
Your opening premise is wrong. Most pitchers peak before 30. You also don't need to elite starters to win a World Series. There is no one right path.

Agree with the second point, disagree that pitchers peak before 30. Look back at the World Series winning teams over the last two decades. The average age of the pitching staff of those teams is ~30.

There are a few exceptions, most notably the 2003 Marlins, whose pitching staff had an average age of 26. But it likely cost/shortened the careers of Willis and Beckett.

Next is the 2010 Giants at 27.5; but that season may have shortened the careers of Cain and Lincecum.

Not a good idea to have pitchers under the age of 27 throwing the number of innings that are required to get through October. How many of the pitcher burnouts in their early 30's were caused by throwing too many innings in a season early in their careers?


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#36

Posted: May 23, 2017, 7:16 PM Post
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And getting back to the title of the thread, my answer would be stop spending 1st round picks on athletic toolsy outfielders with a questionable hit tool over pitchers.

(*ducks and runs for cover*)


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#37

Posted: May 23, 2017, 7:36 PM Post
Posts: 3645
If you took the median of 2006 the age is 27. I cant believe Kershaw is 29 during last year?
Edit
Hed have been 28 for all of 16. So are there other ages wrong? Birthdays that happened September to now?


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#38

Posted: August 02, 2017, 12:16 PM Post
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In regards to the rebuild, does anyone see DS signing a monster deal?

Dallas Kuechel will be a FA in 1.5 years and will be 31
Same with Harper, but he'll be 21 by then. (How do I make that blue?)

My pipe dream is for DS to make a Scherzer type signing, where the dude continues his peak and gets even better. I understand it's an anomaly, but that's got to be one the best Big FA signings in recent history. He's been the best pitcher in baseball for a bit now.

Looking at history, most huge signs would weigh us down for the last half of the contract.

What's the next big step? A huge FA signing? Does DS trade a
Plenty of top kids for an ace with a few years left? Does he let things play out and pull a DM and sign a 4th SP when we're contending?

What do you see DS doing, as we are now in the next step of the rebuild?


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#39

Posted: August 02, 2017, 12:38 PM Post
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MKEguy said:
In regards to the rebuild, does anyone see DS signing a monster deal?


No.

We may have a lot of financially flexibility but blowing it all on one player would just be stupid. Especially when you consider the length of the contract a player getting that much is going to command.


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Offline  Re: Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
#40

Posted: August 02, 2017, 12:40 PM Post
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We are still in the first step of the rebuild imo. Until we start graduating a lot of young players from our minor league team to the major league team we are still in step 1. What this team is this year is just the placeholder guys mostly. A couple of them will get signed long term but most of this team is not part of the future.


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