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Time to talk extension with Arcia?

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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#21

Posted: July 02, 2017, 2:12 PM Post
Posts: 1046
I think it's a good idea but I'd wait a year at the least, possibly two. But sometime in the near future, I think we should try to get this done.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#22

Posted: July 02, 2017, 2:21 PM Post
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$1M
$1M
$3M
$5M
$6M
$10M
$12M
$15M club option ($3M buyout)

That's $41M guaranteed. 8 years, $53M total if the club option is exercised.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#23

Posted: July 02, 2017, 4:47 PM Post
Posts: 150
Lucroy is up for sale now. Would you trade him for the current and AAA or AA Brewer catchers? Acria is improving month to month, and is young. No need to extend, but if he continues to improve, give him an extension.


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Online  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#24

Posted: July 02, 2017, 7:43 PM Post
Posts: 4503
trwi7 said:
$1M
$1M
$3M
$5M
$6M
$10M
$12M
$15M club option ($3M buyout)

That's $41M guaranteed. 8 years, $53M total if the club option is exercised.


The problem with the 1m, 1m just doesn't excite to sign an extension, He'd be getting maybe 400k and 300k more those two years than likely standard pay. On the Brewers' perspective his salary increases affects the payroll down the road. You take a Starlin Castro approach where he immediately got 5mil and his payroll hit never exceeds 12mil in what was an 8/60.5mil contract. Maybe in that estimate you would have like 8 and 9.5mil before the 15mil option year saving a little hit towards the end of the contract.

BuckyBrewer61 said:
This season, Arcia's BAbip over this recent hot stretch (past 40 games) is .416, prior to that it was .236. His true ability with the bat at this point of his career is certainly somewhere in between.

I love the guy and think he is the real deal, but his production with the bat for the past month+ is a bit of an aberration.


Yeah .416 is unsustainable, but with his learning curve, .236 isn't something he should revert to. Maybe he settles in around .330 or say near the ML average. So below .660 OPS isn't really in his future. I think where we're getting to is understanding he should be above .700 OPS through a full season. Ithink he was at 1.1WAR prior to yesterday's game pushing him to 1.4WAR today and now his game today, I'll be interested in seeing how much he gains tomorrow on BRef. You're looking at a modest 3WAR easily out of him with elite defense. He pushes his stats up a little like this stretch, you gotta put6-7 in play but around 5WAR. His K pct is lower so maintaining a better than .270 BA is well within reason and with BABIP he's likely going to put together some .300+seasons. Maybe sorta like Jean Segura who's season was worth 5.6WAR last year at .319 with 20HRs something that may not be out of the realm for Arcia now that he's reached 8 at mid-season. Only thing is Arcia is a better defender so yeah saying 7WAR is in play is not jumping the gun.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#25

Posted: July 02, 2017, 11:19 PM Post
Posts: 2059
adambr2 said:
rickh150 said:
No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.


Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .


Villar and Arcia not comparable? Both players one year into majors(2016 Villar), both SS really with hopefully a plus bat, both have upside in other areas (Villar SB, Arcia Def), both Brewers, both probable similar extension contracts thru arbitration, four or five years(Villar contract specifics weren't made known except for $20 mil, not years or player/team options), both questionable bats with a small window of success (thus far).

Wisely dismiss the idea unless the deal would be ultra team friendly.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#26

Posted: July 03, 2017, 6:07 AM Post
Posts: 19419
rickh150 said:
adambr2 said:
rickh150 said:
No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.


Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .


Villar and Arcia not comparable? Both players one year into majors(2016 Villar), both SS really with hopefully a plus bat, both have upside in other areas (Villar SB, Arcia Def), both Brewers, both probable similar extension contracts thru arbitration, four or five years(Villar contract specifics weren't made known except for $20 mil, not years or player/team options), both questionable bats with a small window of success (thus far).

Wisely dismiss the idea unless the deal would be ultra team friendly.


Yes, not comparable at all. "Both questionable bats?" What? I guess that's easy to say about Villar after he's struggled for half a season now, but his bat was the only reason we offered him an extension to begin with.

Very different types of prospects coming up, different ages and career stage. Most importantly, they could not be more different types of players. Villar's struggles this year have nothing to do with Arcia and do not represent a red flag for Arcia.

They are both middle infielders. That's about as deep as the similarities lie .


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#27

Posted: July 03, 2017, 6:23 AM Post
Posts: 12190
Forget the numbers completely. Watch them play. Arcia is elite. Villar is not. That's not a knock on Villar. Elite players come along oh once a decade or so. Arcia's "hot streak" has lasted a month and a half. Sure over a season, he'll have periods where his production tails off some. That's the nature of the game. But he's showing that not only is his defense spectacular, albeit with a hiccup now and then, but he's also becoming an offensive force. His overall numbers are now very, very good. He should have received All Star consideration. Mark 2017 down. It's likely the last year for a while that Arcia won't be an All Star. That he's still batting 8th is mind boggling to me. What is Counsell watching anyway?


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#28

Posted: July 03, 2017, 6:55 AM Post
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Location: Green Bay, WI
Sixto said:
Forgive my stupidity on baseball finances, but could you frontload a deal similar to what the Packers do on occasion ??
If so, now would be the time to do so on Arcia while we have the lowest payroll in baseball. M.A. doesn't have the deepest pockets so absorb a good portion of that contract before you may want to make some expensive moves a few years down the road. Also, is it true that baseball players don't make as much of a fuss about re-doing their deals every 2 years like NFL players often do ? That may be another reason to lock him in. All in all - he isn't going to get any cheaper by waiting. He is going to carry that "potential" tag for quite a while regardless


I don't recall any situation where a pre-arby (or any pre-free agency) player was given a frontloaded contract. I think the contract structure for these players mirror pretty closely what the players would get if they go year-to-year through the arby process with the hope that the player will accept a below-market outcome on the free agency years bought out in exchange for the financial security (if things go south without the contract, the player could just be non-tendered).

However, in order to entice a pre-arby player to sign, you could always use a modest signing bonus ($5M or so) that the player would receive right away. They get $5M in their pocket immediately, which they otherwise would have to have waited until their 1st arby season to equal that in career earnings. The signing bonus is what enticed Braun to sign, because he had off-field business interests he wanted to finance (clothing line, restaurants, etc).


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#29

Posted: July 03, 2017, 10:03 AM Post
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Yes, we should look to extend Arcia now. He currently has relatively high personal financial risk, so we should be able to get a substantial discount to what he could receive by going year-to-year.

Teams should treat extensions like insurance. They are transferring the risk from the player to the team, so when the risk being transferred is highest, the team will get the best discount. Essentially, the player is paying for the insurance/risk transfer by accepting a discount to what he could get if he went year-to-year.

Waiting a few years in order to see how the player does means that the team will pay a lot more for any free agent years bought out. If you wait too long, you're basically paying market (free agent) value, and the Brewers should generally stay away from that.

Assuming the GM knows what he's doing, and offers a fair deal based on the amount of risk transferred, I'm generally for extending most young, talented players as it's a great way of garnering value without undue risk.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#30

Posted: July 03, 2017, 10:14 AM Post
Posts: 8100
Sixto said:
Forgive my stupidity on baseball finances, but could you frontload a deal similar to what the Packers do on occasion ??
If so, now would be the time to do so on Arcia while we have the lowest payroll in baseball. M.A. doesn't have the deepest pockets so absorb a good portion of that contract before you may want to make some expensive moves a few years down the road. Also, is it true that baseball players don't make as much of a fuss about re-doing their deals every 2 years like NFL players often do ? That may be another reason to lock him in. All in all - he isn't going to get any cheaper by waiting. He is going to carry that "potential" tag for quite a while regardless


The Brewers are in such good financial shape that they should consider this. Giving him more money upfront and less down the road. That would make him more likely to accept a long-term deal.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#31

Posted: July 03, 2017, 10:34 PM Post
Posts: 8650
monty57 said:
Yes, we should look to extend Arcia now. He currently has relatively high personal financial risk, so we should be able to get a substantial discount to what he could receive by going year-to-year.

Teams should treat extensions like insurance. They are transferring the risk from the player to the team, so when the risk being transferred is highest, the team will get the best discount. Essentially, the player is paying for the insurance/risk transfer by accepting a discount to what he could get if he went year-to-year.

Waiting a few years in order to see how the player does means that the team will pay a lot more for any free agent years bought out. If you wait too long, you're basically paying market (free agent) value, and the Brewers should generally stay away from that.

Assuming the GM knows what he's doing, and offers a fair deal based on the amount of risk transferred, I'm generally for extending most young, talented players as it's a great way of garnering value without undue risk.


Well said. Question is what is the down side of waiting a year? If Arcia is willing to sign longer term deal with 5 1/2 years of team control why not 4 1/2?

Maybe the price tag goes up a little, but it gives the Brewers time to see if he can keep this up. Arcia started slowly when he came up last year, slow to start this year. Now he's clicking, but will teams adjust approach to pitching him? Of course. Will Arcia then adjust as well?? That's always the question with players at this stage in their career.

I would give it a year to see if he looks more like a .700 or .800 hitter. By the way, a bit off topic, but it's also telling he is already a leader on this team in many ways. Could be THE leader shortly.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#32

Posted: July 03, 2017, 11:02 PM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
adambr2 said:
rickh150 said:
No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap for the next two and a half years (at least) before even considering it. He probably won't hit that well that his salary would jump to too expensive levels in arbitration.

Now if he wanted a Lucroy type of extension where the club made out like a bandit, I'd jump at that for many of our young guys.


Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .


Villar was never a highly rated prospect. He was a guy the Astros brought to the majors at a time they were tanking big time until their actual prospects were ready. Brewers caught lightening in a bottle when he had his career year his first season here. He was brought in to be filler just as he was in Houston. Arcia was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and a core player in the Brewers long term plans.

Other than Arcia, the other long term candidate is Shaw, if only for some cost certainty through his arby years that could become very, very expensive. Shaw at 5 years, $45 million might make a lot of sense.

This is not true. He was on the top 100 for BA and was in the midseason pipeline for 2011. Villar was one of Houstons top guys before they went full tank. He was one of the key pieces that sent Roy Oswalt from HOU to Philly.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/pr ... 11328.html


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#33

Posted: July 03, 2017, 11:26 PM Post
Posts: 2059
JohnBriggs12 said:
Forget the numbers completely. Watch them play. Arcia is elite. Villar is not. That's not a knock on Villar. Elite players come along oh once a decade or so. Arcia's "hot streak" has lasted a month and a half. Sure over a season, he'll have periods where his production tails off some. That's the nature of the game. But he's showing that not only is his defense spectacular, albeit with a hiccup now and then, but he's also becoming an offensive force. His overall numbers are now very, very good. He should have received All Star consideration. Mark 2017 down. It's likely the last year for a while that Arcia won't be an All Star. That he's still batting 8th is mind boggling to me. What is Counsell watching anyway?


You were this high on him at the end of April? My guess is no. The talk was more about if he could ever be an average hitting SS. The talk was Villar is the budding star. If you were writing this post in April and were pining for his extension because he obviously was going to be really good based on just "watching them play, not looking at numbers", I'd be thoroughly impressed. Instead, it's Jonny come lately. Arcia good, Villar bad.
Pump the brakes and let's just see what he can do for a while. He isn't anywhere close to Braun 2007. No need to over reach here and try to save a few bucks in 2022 and 2023. Risk/reward still sides with too risky without as much upside in my mind.
Also, I don't know of many positive team experiences with 7 or 8 year contracts.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#34

Posted: July 03, 2017, 11:50 PM Post
Posts: 2059
[quote="adambr2"][quote="rickh150"][quote="adambr2"][quote="rickh150"]No need to sign him NOW to an extension.... are u kidding me? Didn't we learn anything from the Villar situation? Many wanted to extend him too. Let's just keep him on the cheap

Villar is not comparable at all. Totally different contract proposal, Villar we were just basically buying out arbitration years. Also Arcia has an incredible glove, much more of a sure bet to have positive value going forward than Villar .

Also kind of hard to 'learn' anything from the Villar situation half a year in -- it's still no certainty that the $20M offer would look like a bad deal for us in 4 years . Remmeber when people were relieved that Jean Segura didn't sign his extension offer?

Either way, it's kind of silly to dismiss an extension for Arcia on the grounds that Villar hasn't been good this year. If there's any ideal long-term extension candidate on this team to build around, it's Arcia. He could be locked up for 8 years and still only be 30 by the time his contract ends .

Yes, not comparable at all. "Both questionable bats?" What? I guess that's easy to say about Villar after he's struggled for half a season now, but his bat was the only reason we offered him an extension to begin with




Yes, both questionable bats then and still. No consistency in either (yet).
Villar 26, Arcia 22.... really not that huge of gap, but I'll give you that one.
Of course Villar struggling doesn't morph into Arcia struggling. In the field, at the plate, no. However, the downturn made by Villar this season at the plate was very unforeseen, and it should remind us of buyer beware in a league with guaranteed contracts and a team with limited finances.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#35

Posted: July 04, 2017, 12:35 AM Post
Posts: 2059
JohnBriggs12 said:
clancyphile said:
Arcia's defense is good, but paying up to $20 million a season for a good-field, iffy-hit shortstop doesn't make sense. Right now, aside from the last six weeks, that's what he is. He's on a hot streak. It's exciting. But his career OPS is .699. His 2016 OPS at Colorado Springs was .723.

If he can show he can deliver an .800-ish OPS through 2018-2019, go for it. But I need more than just one month.


"Iffy-hit" ?? He's got all the tools to be an offensive force, uses all the field, doesn't strike out a ton, has power to all fields, this without his body totally filled out. He's an emerging star. Right now. No way his arby years will be $4 million, $6 million, $8 million. More like double that. If they could get him for 7 years $72 million it would be a bargain.



Here are the next 6 years, 2017-2022, and what the team would pay him if he performs like you say he will with the arby numbers YOU are giving....

2017-2019 2 million total (rounded up)
2020 8mill
2021 12mil
2020 16 mil

So if he does great, about 6 years for 38 mil. Just playing it out year to year. You call for an extension of 7 years for $72 million, and this would be a bargain? And this is the same guy you would have sent to AAA in May? Respectfully disagree with any sort of big money extension. Go Arcia! Be an all star and MVP and all that, but come on.... 72 mil?


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#36

Posted: July 04, 2017, 6:13 AM Post
Posts: 3011
It would really be more like 5/38 since 2017 would not be part of the extension but I agree 72 million would be too high at this point. Around the 60 million mark would be reasonable to me though. Unlike Villar, you will get solid defense even if he doesn't sustain the hitting so the floor is higher, maybe an Alcides Escobar type player at the worst. Perhaps make the 7th year a club option with buyout to reduce the guaranteed money a bit.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#37

Posted: July 04, 2017, 10:27 AM Post
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A comparable would be Tim Anderson from the White Sox who signed an extension in March.

2017 850K
2018 1.00M
2019 1.40M
2020 4.00M
2021 7.25M
2022 9.50M
2023 12.50M Team Option 1.0M Buyout
2024 14.00M Team Option 1.0M Buyout

So a total of 26M guaranteed with the possibility of 50.50M. I would have to think something similar to that unless somebody can convince me Arcia's glove is worth millions of dollars more than Anderson (serious question)? Also may have to pay a little more since the clock is already ticking where as the Sox had about two more "free" months to work with coming into this season without losing a year of service time.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#38

Posted: July 04, 2017, 10:44 AM Post
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Last 42 games:
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He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#39

Posted: July 04, 2017, 12:49 PM Post
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homer said:
Last 42 games:
367/396/513

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.


True but he also beats out a lot of grounder in the infield so he conceivablicould sustain a higher babip. Lately his hits have been hard hit balls. And while he might be lucky now he will also improve as a hitter and get stronger so there is plenty of reason to believe he could see his babip drop and still have an ops near 800


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#40

Posted: July 04, 2017, 12:51 PM Post
Posts: 12429
Orlando Arcia having an OPS near .800 seems like quite the wishful thinking. If that is why you are antsy to extend him you better wait.


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