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Time to talk extension with Arcia?

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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#41

Posted: July 04, 2017, 1:08 PM Post
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homer said:
Last 42 games:
367/396/513

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.


True but he also beats out a lot of grounder in the infield so he conceivablicould sustain a higher babip. Lately his hits have been hard hit balls. And while he might be lucky now he will also improve as a hitter and get stronger so there is plenty of reason to believe he could see his babip drop and still have an ops near 800


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#42

Posted: July 04, 2017, 1:43 PM Post
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jjfanec said:
homer said:
Last 42 games:
367/396/513

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.


True but he also beats out a lot of grounder in the infield so he conceivablicould sustain a higher babip. Lately his hits have been hard hit balls. And while he might be lucky now he will also improve as a hitter and get stronger so there is plenty of reason to believe he could see his babip drop and still have an ops near 800



His GB rate and Hard Hit rate are about the same over the last 42 games as they are for the whole season. He might be able to have a higher BABiP but not 400+

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#43

Posted: July 04, 2017, 6:59 PM Post
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I could see Stearns exploring it after the season. Everything about Arcia screams "special player." This isn't just a guy having a hot first half, from the looks of how he's playing.

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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#44

Posted: July 04, 2017, 10:07 PM Post
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Invader3K said:
I could see Stearns exploring it after the season. Everything about Arcia screams "special player." This isn't just a guy having a hot first half, from the looks of how he's playing.

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Everything screams good glove, questions bat. The glove is a given, not the bat.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#45

Posted: July 04, 2017, 10:14 PM Post
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BallFour said:
A comparable would be Tim Anderson from the White Sox who signed an extension in March.

2017 850K
2018 1.00M
2019 1.40M
2020 4.00M
2021 7.25M
2022 9.50M
2023 12.50M Team Option 1.0M Buyout
2024 14.00M Team Option 1.0M Buyout

So a total of 26M guaranteed with the possibility of 50.50M. I would have to think something similar to that unless somebody can convince me Arcia's glove is worth millions of dollars more than Anderson (serious question)? Also may have to pay a little more since the clock is already ticking where as the Sox had about two more "free" months to work with coming into this season without losing a year of service time.


And Arcia is beating Anderson's numbers. 8HRs already, lower K rate, and better BB rate and still younger with this fact.

I again suggest that an early extension is giving up years of a possible extension. Some above say 7years. Great he's 29/30. I'd rather have him til he's 32-34 if the numbers add up in another year. He'll still be receiving money early in his career.

I really don't get the sign an extension through the team controlled years and then have options 1 or 2 years beyond. You're not gaining much if he's a young player worth extending. If he's bad you're buying him out past normal team control. If he's good, the likelihood of him signing another extension vs testing FA is a lot less now that he's paid. Then you get the decision to trade him that year after team control or hang on to and go to FA after. I just feel an Extension should be 3years or longer past original team control.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#46

Posted: July 05, 2017, 8:00 AM Post
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homer said:
jjfanec said:
homer said:
Last 42 games:
367/396/513

He does sport a .425 BABIP over that same time period and about 50% of his balls in play are grounders and he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard on average so he's getting lucky. I would wait until his luck recedes to see what you really have there before extending him. Note, I am not saying that the Brewers should not extend him, only that what he's doing right now is not indicative of who he is as a player.


True but he also beats out a lot of grounder in the infield so he conceivablicould sustain a higher babip. Lately his hits have been hard hit balls. And while he might be lucky now he will also improve as a hitter and get stronger so there is plenty of reason to believe he could see his babip drop and still have an ops near 800



His GB rate and Hard Hit rate are about the same over the last 42 games as they are for the whole season. He might be able to have a higher BABiP but not 400+


Of course. But his high babip is what gets him a 900 OPS. the question is could he sustain an 800 OPS down the road and I think he definitely could. As he matures a little more power will come. He is growing as a hitter going opposite field more (at least that is what announcers tell me). Arcia doesn't need to sustain the last month to be a star. With his glove and OPS near 800 would be more than enough.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#47

Posted: July 05, 2017, 3:32 PM Post
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He isn't keeping an .800 OPS unless he starts walking a lot more. Right now he profiles as a below average hitter. He is young so there is time for that to change but nothing suggests hitting will be an asset with him yet.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#48

Posted: July 05, 2017, 4:16 PM Post
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Ennder said:
He isn't keeping an .800 OPS unless he starts walking a lot more. Right now he profiles as a below average hitter. He is young so there is time for that to change but nothing suggests hitting will be an asset with him yet.


His Ops is .773 with a babip of .339. His babip may be a little high but with his speed it could easily stay high. Not to mention he is only 22 so there is a very good chance he improves his walk rate a little. His walk rate jumped significantly from march/April to the past two months.

I have no idea if Arcia can become an .800 OPS guy but the way people are acting like it isn't going to happen does seem to factor in a few things. One being age. Another being his improvement as he has gotten comfortable. His power has been better than many thought it would be.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#49

Posted: July 06, 2017, 9:51 AM Post
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It's hard to use his MiLB stats to project what he'll become, because Arcia has always been young for his level. He has held his own, scouts have loved him, and the Brewers continued to rush him through the minors and he adjusted. I like that they did this, and hope they continue to push prospects who are playing well. My only complaint is that I wish they would have waited until he was crushing AAA pitching before bringing him up, as we could've saved a year when he is in his prime instead of spending that year of service time watching him flounder as he wasn't quite MLB ready when they brought him up.

That's in the past now, and since he's had that year of experience and has caught up to MLB pitching I expect him to be a very good player. I would have very little concern with signing him to a long-term deal, as long as it gives us the significant discount I discussed in my earlier post. If he signs now, we're likely to get him for well under his market value for a long time. In the event he crashes and burns, the contract shouldn't be large enough to seriously hurt the franchise.

Making this a normal part of your business process should allow the odds to work in your favor so the good extensions far outweigh the bad ones. Again, think of the insurance industry who price things according to the risk involved. To make it work effectively, you just need to have enough talent in the system to have players who are worth extending, and Melvin and Stearns have done a good job of stocking us up over the recent past. Plus, if you have guys who are signed under value and are nearing the end of their control, they're easy to trade for a lot of young talent, as we saw in the Gomez and Lucroy trades.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#50

Posted: July 06, 2017, 11:09 AM Post
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I think we have to also take into consideration what we have coming up at that position. Why pay a lot for a relatively small upgrade in production in one area and not have the money to get a larger upgrade somewhere else? Arcia circa 2020 might be better than someone like Dubon but is he worth more than Dubon plus the extra money we can spend to upgrade a true weakness?

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#51

Posted: July 06, 2017, 12:09 PM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
I think we have to also take into consideration what we have coming up at that position. Why pay a lot for a relatively small upgrade in production in one area and not have the money to get a larger upgrade somewhere else? Arcia circa 2020 might be better than someone like Dubon but is he worth more than Dubon plus the extra money we can spend to upgrade a true weakness?


That's a really good point and probably depends on how Brewers feel about both players. In any event, having Dubon means you don't have to rush an extension with Arcia. Obviously his price could go up but that's why they pay the GM's the big bucks.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#52

Posted: July 06, 2017, 12:17 PM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
I think we have to also take into consideration what we have coming up at that position. Why pay a lot for a relatively small upgrade in production in one area and not have the money to get a larger upgrade somewhere else? Arcia circa 2020 might be better than someone like Dubon but is he worth more than Dubon plus the extra money we can spend to upgrade a true weakness?


If you extend Arcia (or anyone else) during the pre-arby years, you expect to get a substantial discount to market value. That makes the player very valuable on the trade market if a solid replacement is ready in the minors. Look at the Lucroy and Gomez deals to see what teams are willing to pay for a good player signed to a "team friendly" contract.

I hope that we are able to keep good players coming up through the system, allowing us to trade guys who are more expensive with less team control. That's the only real way I can imagine that a smaller-revenue team like the Brewers can hope to sustain success for longer than a "window." If done correctly, you can actually get better when the vet is traded, as we would have a strong replacement and could use the trade to add talent in an area of greater need.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#53

Posted: July 06, 2017, 3:20 PM Post
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monty57 said:
Thurston Fluff said:
I think we have to also take into consideration what we have coming up at that position. Why pay a lot for a relatively small upgrade in production in one area and not have the money to get a larger upgrade somewhere else? Arcia circa 2020 might be better than someone like Dubon but is he worth more than Dubon plus the extra money we can spend to upgrade a true weakness?


If you extend Arcia (or anyone else) during the pre-arby years, you expect to get a substantial discount to market value. That makes the player very valuable on the trade market if a solid replacement is ready in the minors. Look at the Lucroy and Gomez deals to see what teams are willing to pay for a good player signed to a "team friendly" contract.

I hope that we are able to keep good players coming up through the system, allowing us to trade guys who are more expensive with less team control. That's the only real way I can imagine that a smaller-revenue team like the Brewers can hope to sustain success for longer than a "window." If done correctly, you can actually get better when the vet is traded, as we would have a strong replacement and could use the trade to add talent in an area of greater need.


That is fine if we get a Lucroy style deal but lets be real about how often that happens with top prospects. If Arcia wants to sign a well below market value contract now fine. I don't really see that happening. He knows he is a top prospect already playing well at a young age. Lucroy didn't. Even then it isn't like Arcia wouldn't have any value with one less season of control. So then we have to measure how much an extra season of control will return to us vs the risk of giving out a decent sized contract.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#54

Posted: November 28, 2019, 9:54 AM Post
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Odds are what....50/50 that he is nontendered?


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#55

Posted: November 28, 2019, 9:59 AM Post
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rickh150 said:
Odds are what....50/50 that he is nontendered?


I'd put it closer to 20/80, with the 20 as non-tendered personally.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#56

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:01 AM Post
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Real strange to find a 2.5 year old thread to ask a question like this.

I’d put it at more like 75% chance he is either kept or traded. I can’t imagine a team won’t take a shot on him or get him for a utility role.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#57

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:04 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Real strange to find a 2.5 year old thread to ask a question like this.

I’d put it at more like 75% chance he is either kept or traded. I can’t imagine a team won’t take a shot on him or get him for a utility role.


Exactly. There is still value and prospect pedigree there. There will be teams out there who will think they can fix his offense. You tender him, and if you believe that Urias is your SS, you look to deal Orlando. Perhaps for another “change of scenery” guy. I suggested Dylan Bundy in the rumors forum.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#58

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:05 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Real strange to find a 2.5 year old thread to ask a question like this.

I’d put it at more like 75% chance he is either kept or traded. I can’t imagine a team won’t take a shot on him or get him for a utility role.


Agreed. As I said in another thread, he's ideal as the typical middle-IF bench guy that we always carry, especially with Hiura and his crappy defense on the roster to sub out late in games. I'd rather have him at $1-2 million over the $2 million we paid Saladino/Spangenberg to be that guy last year....


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#59

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:19 AM Post
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Odds are much higher that he is traded for a minimal return than he is non-tendered. He still isn't going to cost very much via arbitration.

I'd say 60% stay on the team as bench bat and splits time with Urias; 30% traded for a flier prospect; 10% non-tendered.


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Offline  Re: Time to talk extension with Arcia?
#60

Posted: November 28, 2019, 6:49 PM Post
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Id think we need insurance with Hiura’s elbow, no clear 3b, and an unproven SS. Even if he isn’t an everyday starter, Arcia could get 300-400 plate appearances. In the past he’s done well when challenged for his job


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