It's hard to use his MiLB stats to project what he'll become, because Arcia has always been young for his level. He has held his own, scouts have loved him, and the Brewers continued to rush him through the minors and he adjusted. I like that they did this, and hope they continue to push prospects who are playing well. My only complaint is that I wish they would have waited until he was crushing AAA pitching before bringing him up, as we could've saved a year when he is in his prime instead of spending that year of service time watching him flounder as he wasn't quite MLB ready when they brought him up.

That's in the past now, and since he's had that year of experience and has caught up to MLB pitching I expect him to be a very good player. I would have very little concern with signing him to a long-term deal, as long as it gives us the significant discount I discussed in my earlier post. If he signs now, we're likely to get him for well under his market value for a long time. In the event he crashes and burns, the contract shouldn't be large enough to seriously hurt the franchise.

Making this a normal part of your business process should allow the odds to work in your favor so the good extensions far outweigh the bad ones. Again, think of the insurance industry who price things according to the risk involved. To make it work effectively, you just need to have enough talent in the system to have players who are worth extending, and Melvin and Stearns have done a good job of stocking us up over the recent past. Plus, if you have guys who are signed under value and are nearing the end of their control, they're easy to trade for a lot of young talent, as we saw in the Gomez and Lucroy trades.