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Quintana to The Cubs for a lot

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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 6:07 AM Post
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It seems like ever since Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer took over the Cubs' operations (beginning in the off-season of 2011) they have focused on stockpiling their system with position players. For years the prevailing thought was that they were going to acquire and develop as many hitters as possible through the system and then just either make FA signings or trades for pitching when the time came. That theory has certainly seemed to play out as for the second year the Cubs have used their surplus of hitting prospects to add a significant pitching piece, and this time one that they can control through 2020. I am not certain if it was quite as calculated as it has seemed (and yes I realize Dylan Cease was also a key prospect in this deal), but it has felt predictable for quite some time that inevitably the Cubs would use the surplus of hitters to add a significant rotation piece and now that has happened.

I do think this was a good move for the Cubs to bolster their rotation over the next 3-4 years, and overall it seems about right to me in terms of acquisition cost considering Jimenez and Cease are still a couple of years from the majors.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 7:12 AM Post
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danzig6767 said:
I wouldn't be so certain in saying the Cubs have crippled themselves four years from now.

That is a long time and Theo is an upper tier GM. A wide variety of things can happen over those four years in how they draft, international signings, trades, free agency, etc. No question these trades will make it harder for Theo to have the Cubs still be really good 3-4-5 years from now, but he's not like some dumb GM's of past big market teams who signed a bunch of bad free agent contracts and left the organization in shambles. I'm not saying that he's infallible, but he is a bright guy so i wouldn't just go assuming that disaster is coming for the Cubs in the time frame you listed.


Yes and no on Theo. The International signing period has changed so no more exploiting that. Then you have through the draft. Well if your producing WS teams youre looking at 26th and worse. Then if you're in need of buying your teams problems, well if those players were QO they are giving up that 1st or 2nd round pick. That leaves the only other option to improve the minors is through trades of your top players. While Ender may believe they have til 2021, I think 2019 will be their swan song and they fall off to when 2021 happens they are rebuilding.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 7:19 AM Post
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Eye Black at Night said:
It seems like ever since Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer took over the Cubs' operations (beginning in the off-season of 2011) they have focused on stockpiling their system with position players. For years the prevailing thought was that they were going to acquire and develop as many hitters as possible through the system and then just either make FA signings or trades for pitching when the time came. That theory has certainly seemed to play out as for the second year the Cubs have used their surplus of hitting prospects to add a significant pitching piece, and this time one that they can control through 2020. I am not certain if it was quite as calculated as it has seemed (and yes I realize Dylan Cease was also a key prospect in this deal), but it has felt predictable for quite some time that inevitably the Cubs would use the surplus of hitters to add a significant rotation piece and now that has happened.

I do think this was a good move for the Cubs to bolster their rotation over the next 3-4 years, and overall it seems about right to me in terms of acquisition cost considering Jimenez and Cease are still a couple of years from the majors.



I would say that is just the smart way to do things. Pitching is too volatile so you avoid drafting it early. You hope a couple later round guys hit and then you trade for other teams guys.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 7:22 AM Post
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danzig6767 said:
I wouldn't be so certain in saying the Cubs have crippled themselves four years from now.

That is a long time and Theo is an upper tier GM. A wide variety of things can happen over those four years in how they draft, international signings, trades, free agency, etc. No question these trades will make it harder for Theo to have the Cubs still be really good 3-4-5 years from now, but he's not like some dumb GM's of past big market teams who signed a bunch of bad free agent contracts and left the organization in shambles. I'm not saying that he's infallible, but he is a bright guy so i wouldn't just go assuming that disaster is coming for the Cubs in the time frame you listed.


He could have done all that and still had a bunch of young players filtering into the team at the same time though. I looked at this Cubs team as one that was going to be a dominant team for the next 10 years or so mid season last year. Now I see it as one that is just going to have the typical 5 year window and a GM hoping he can stretch it with good moves. The franchise outlook has changed dramatically in the past calendar year. It won a World Series and I fully expect them to be in the hunt for at least one more over the next 4 years so it was a good move. But this certainly has helped the Brewers future as well. I don't really see how that is debatable given everything they have traded away with a focus on this 5 year window of Rizzo/Bryant.

I guarantee you that if their rotation had held up this year and they were in first place that this trade would not have happened. This is Theo trying to bandaid something that went wrong way before he expected it to. It doesn't mean it is a bad move but it is something good for the Brewers long term.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 7:34 AM Post
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Ennder said:
danzig6767 said:
I wouldn't be so certain in saying the Cubs have crippled themselves four years from now.

That is a long time and Theo is an upper tier GM. A wide variety of things can happen over those four years in how they draft, international signings, trades, free agency, etc. No question these trades will make it harder for Theo to have the Cubs still be really good 3-4-5 years from now, but he's not like some dumb GM's of past big market teams who signed a bunch of bad free agent contracts and left the organization in shambles. I'm not saying that he's infallible, but he is a bright guy so i wouldn't just go assuming that disaster is coming for the Cubs in the time frame you listed.


He could have done all that and still had a bunch of young players filtering into the team at the same time though. I looked at this Cubs team as one that was going to be a dominant team for the next 10 years or so mid season last year. Now I see it as one that is just going to have the typical 5 year window and a GM hoping he can stretch it with good moves. The franchise outlook has changed dramatically in the past calendar year. It won a World Series and I fully expect them to be in the hunt for at least one more over the next 4 years so it was a good move. But this certainly has helped the Brewers future as well. I don't really see how that is debatable given everything they have traded away with a focus on this 5 year window of Rizzo/Bryant.


I agree with Danzig. The Cubs control their core players through 2021 and it's still a very young group. They have plenty of money to spend on FA. There will be 4 more drafts between then and now, and opportunities galore to add prospects. In short, they had no need for help from prospects and the guys they traded were all 2 years or more away from helping anyway. They like some of their low level arms. If they develop, they'll be all right. There's no guaranty the Brewers core will be good enough to take advantage of a Cub slippage 4-5 years from now anyway. The falloff this year was part hangover, but mainly the failure of the starting rotation and the off years from Schwarber, Russell and Zobrist. They just addressed the rotation. Is that enough? We need to hope their offense doesn't suddenly get rolling.

Theo's made mistakes. The money spent on Heyward was a huge one. But big market teams can afford mistakes. I like this deal for them more so than the Torres for Chapman deal last year. Chapman was overkill and short term. They were probably good enough without him. Quintana fills a need for this year and beyond for a cost that didn't diminish the big league roster for at least 3 years.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 7:50 AM Post
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The thing is the Cubs roster slippage has already begun. The pitching went downhill real fast and they don't have a cheap way to fix it now(no prospects to trade or use). Sure you can spend money, but that is easier said than done. The Cubs still have a lot of young hitting talent, but pitching is really expensive. They are only one disaster ace FA signing(like a Jordan Zimmerman disaster) from having real issues. If FA doesn't end well we will look back on them wondering what the heck happened to such a great team. It certainly seems the dynasty dream for them is fading into the sunset. Now it looks more like a team that will have down years and not post a bunch of 95+ win seasons almost yearly.

What they do this offseason will be interesting because Arrieta will be on his way out and he hasn't been good anyway. How will they replace him?


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 7:52 AM Post
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I always go back and forth on Epstein. He definitely deserves some credit ending the droughts of the Cubs and Red Sox. And he has made some good moves. But with any big market team - being a GM is typically so much easier. They can easily fill holes through free agency (see Lester), when they do make mistakes (see Heyward) it doesn't bury them. They essentially have unlimited cash for the most part. They can sign whoever they want in FA, they typically will never lose a marquee FA if they really want to keep them. It's just so much easier.

Has he made some good trades and draft picks? Certainly. But having money just makes it so much easier to rebuild, fit in new pieces, etc., and he's had that luxury his entire career as a GM.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 8:24 AM Post
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The Cubs have a massive amount of money coming off the books after 2017 -- their payroll commitments go from $170M to $94M. They can probably afford to add $100M of payroll starting next season. They can, and I'm sure will spend money. I'm guessing they will push for and land one of the top FA SP's in the next few years to pair with Quintana at the top. Hendricks probably won't ever be as good as his 2016 season, but I doubt they are too worried about him.

For sure they are going to have less of a margin for error the next few years without any solid reinforcements coming through the system, but I doubt they are going to have to worry about a gut and rebuild anytime soon.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 9:03 AM Post
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I know the common notion is their offensive players are set for years and they're loaded. But let's dig a bit deeper. They have Bryant/Rizzo two MVPish level guys, yes that's huge and I know a huge advantage to have. But what do they really have offensively after that? RF can't hit, CF is Jon Jay right now, LF completely flopped this year (and is brutal on D). SS basically can't hit. Baez is nothing special as a hitter. Zobrist is ancient now. Contreras is a solid hitting catcher. So, they only have a plus hitter at two positions as of now but I could see an argument for Contreras, so lets call it 3.

Of course there could be a leap coming from SS, Baez, and wherever Happ plays. But as of now, nothing is for sure anywhere else. I would strongly argue the Brewers core back in the day was better Braun/Fielder IMO beat Bryzzo. Then we had plus hitters at 2B, SS (Hardy days), RF and even C with Lucroy.

Long story short, they're not quite the juggernaut we all thought since so far only Bryant has really popped offensively for all their position player great prospects. Their rotation just got a big boost yesterday but will have to go through an overhaul this offseason.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 9:11 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
I know the common notion is their offensive players are set for years and they're loaded. But let's dig a bit deeper. They have Bryant/Rizzo two MVPish level guys, yes that's huge and I know a huge advantage to have. But what do they really have offensively after that?


I have a feeling they're looking forward to the inevitable Bryce Harper free agency after next season.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 9:23 AM Post
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I suppose but again that's nothing they can bank on right now. Yankees will be all over him and Machado as well. If I'm Harper I probably go to NYY for the most money and launch 55 ding dongs a year in that RF launching pad. I know they have their advantages, I'm just saying that so far all their mega prospects have pretty much flopped offensively besides Bryant and now their farm is garbage. A lot more beatable than we all thought a year or two back when all those prospects still had their shine.

And I know they're rich. But they'll have to give mega deals to both Bryant, Ryzzo. And they have no pitching prospects so they'll have to pay up there too. So you'll have 4 big deals there, plus Lesters crap deal as he ages(assuming he regresses), Haywards crap deal. Now they have to find 40 mil for Harper too. That's even stretching them pretty thin. You'd be looking at 150 mil just on Bryant Rizzo, Hayward, Lester, Harper. Then you have to pay two more top FA pitchers and 18 other guys. It's going to be an interesting path to navigate.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 9:38 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
I suppose but again that's nothing they can bank on right now. Yankees will be all over him and Machado as well. If I'm Harper I probably go to NYY for the most money and launch 55 ding dongs a year in that RF launching pad. I know they have their advantages, I'm just saying that so far all their mega prospects have pretty much flopped offensively besides Bryant and now their farm is garbage. A lot more beatable than we all thought a year or two back when all those prospects still had their shine.

And I know they're rich. But they'll have to give mega deals to both Bryant, Ryzzo. And they have no pitching prospects so they'll have to pay up there too. So you'll have 4 big deals there, plus Lesters crap deal as he ages(assuming he regresses), Haywards crap deal. Now they have to find 40 mil for Harper too. That's even stretching them pretty thin. You'd be looking at 150 mil just on Bryant Rizzo, Hayward, Lester, Harper. Then you have to pay two more top FA pitchers and 18 other guys. It's going to be an interesting path to navigate.


Rizzo is under control for reasonably cheap through 2021, so there's no immediate concern there. Bryant has 4 years of arbitration remaining after this year. He won't be cheap in arbitration -- he'll probably average $15-$20M a year in it by the time the process is complete, but that's a far cry from the $30-$35M a year he could probably get as a FA.

Don't know what Bryant and Rizzo will be looking like after 2021, but they're pretty well set to spend what they want through the 2021 season.

As far as their pitching prospects, I wouldn't say they have none. Their top 10 prospects is mostly starting pitching -- albeit in the lower levels, and not guys on the Top 100 radar yet, but they've got some promise. Some will obviously flame out but it would be surprising not to see 1 or 2 break in by the early 2020's.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 9:40 AM Post
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Regardless of what happens this season, the Cubs are still a better bet than the Brewers for the foreseeable future. They now have 5 of the top 50 assets in baseball. At a certain point in time however, the value produced by Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease has the potential to exceed the value of Jose Quintana’s team control to the Cubs. At that point in time, the Brewers should be trending toward more major league talent than they will have in 2018. So in that regard this trade isn’t a bad thing for the Brewers. The Brewers are highly unlikely to match that 5 player core at any point in the immediate future, but they can be better over the next 20 players on the roster. The way to achieve that is to acquire as much talent as possible so you increase the odds that more of them play to the high end of their potential.
As for the immediate, Pina, Shaw, Arcia and Thames have match Contreras, Bryant, Russell, and Rizzo nearly step for step. Can they do that over 71 more games is still the question that has the most potential to decide this race. That answer has gotten a lot less definitive over the last 3.5 months.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 9:43 AM Post
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I'm not saying they're going to suck. Just that it's not nearly as imposing as it looked a year or two ago. They have a lot of stuff to figure out in spite of their financial advantages and Bryzzo. A year ago we all would've been willing to write off having any chance to beat them for 3-4 years and they'd be clear NL powerhouse for those years, that's far from the case right now.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 10:10 AM Post
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The Cubs signing of international free agent OF Eloy Jimenez for $2.8M in 2013 essentially landed them 3 1/2 years of a young #2 starter.

The Brewers signed international free agent 3B Gilbert Lara a year later for $3.1M.

Good idea by the Brewers to start to spending on international free agents.

However, Lara's still only 19 but he's hitting just .191 this season at single A for the Timber Rattlers.

Bummer.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 10:15 AM Post
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A year ago, they had the high hopes of Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, ian Happ, and that OF I cant think of creating a juggernaut of an offense. They hit on Bryant, but the concerns for Bryant with Ks, that happened to Baez. Traded away Torres, Jimenez, and that OF. Schwarber's terrible season....Cubs went from like 3-6WAR position players to Zobrist and Hayward mistake signings, no future super produces beyond Bryzzo. The pitching was always concerned for.

The way I seen the Cubs pitching last season is equivalent to the pitching we're getting from Nelson and Anderson. Hendriks/Lackey weren't supposed to be that good in 16. Arrieta partially. They won a WS on that backs off Chapman acquiring. And those pitchers. Their rebuild went too fast because of Arrieta and Hendriks. Theo has made abrupt moves for the immediate and its going to end the Cubs rebuilt "dynasty" far sooner than it should.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs
Posted: July 14, 2017, 10:27 AM Post
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jjgott said:
Maybe those "rival execs" weren't that off when they said the price for Quintana would be Brinson, Hader, Phillips. Yikes if this is now the price for a front-line starter.


.... for a controllable front-line starter.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 10:31 AM Post
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Cubs are reportedly still showing interest in a Sonny Gray deal. They must really be afraid of the Brewers!


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 10:33 AM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
A year ago, they had the high hopes of Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, ian Happ, and that OF I cant think of creating a juggernaut of an offense. They hit on Bryant, but the concerns for Bryant with Ks, that happened to Baez. Traded away Torres, Jimenez, and that OF. Schwarber's terrible season....Cubs went from like 3-6WAR position players to Zobrist and Hayward mistake signings, no future super produces beyond Bryzzo. The pitching was always concerned for.

The way I seen the Cubs pitching last season is equivalent to the pitching we're getting from Nelson and Anderson. Hendriks/Lackey weren't supposed to be that good in 16. Arrieta partially. They won a WS on that backs off Chapman acquiring. And those pitchers. Their rebuild went too fast because of Arrieta and Hendriks. Theo has made abrupt moves for the immediate and its going to end the Cubs rebuilt "dynasty" far sooner than it should.


That's what i'm getting at.

I of course agree they're still set up better than MKE, no doubt. Just not near the unbeatable juggernaut we feared 1-2 years ago.


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Offline  Re: Quintana to The Cubs for a lot
Posted: July 14, 2017, 10:33 AM Post
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The inclusion of Brett Phillips isn't going to hold up any potential trade IMO.


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