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Brewers Core?

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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#21

Posted: July 17, 2017, 9:44 AM Post
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gregmag said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
You may be the first person to ever call Jimmy Nelson a "low end ace".


Fangraphs did:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brew ... ctual-ace/


I stand corrected.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#22

Posted: July 17, 2017, 10:46 AM Post
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I set the bar high because especially with our payroll limitations (not that we are close at the moment) it gets very easy to use up those salary dollars on a couple of guys who are 2-5 year peak players, but get stuck paying for years 6-8. I'm not unwilling to spend on guys between 27-32 who are above average, but it is tricky to spend on the right ones. Particularly since we do have a deep farm system and to keep things going many of those veteran players are the ones that you should make sure to trade a year to soon instead of a year too late. When it comes down to it I do believe Nelson's break out is legitimate, but he's a pitcher so if we can get a Gallardo like run out of him for 3-4 years that's great. Shaw might be a guy I take a slightly longer chance on, but 3rd basemen tend to age very poorly as a group. Santana I can also see keeping for awhile, but I'd move him in a heartbeat if I got comparable talent at thinner positions.


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Online  Re: Brewers Core?
#23

Posted: July 17, 2017, 10:55 AM Post
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Nelson, Shaw, and Santana are the core IMO. I would also add Arcia and Pina.

I also add Knebel to the list.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#24

Posted: July 17, 2017, 11:21 AM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
igor67 said:
In my mind "Core" guys are those you are thinking could likely retire with the team.


That's a tough bar to use these days, pretty rare for anyone to stay with the same team their entire career. I think you can be a core part of the next successful run without having to retire as a Brewer.

Nelson, Shaw, Santana are no different than any other player on the roster. If you can get good value in a trade, you do it. If not, they will all be relatively cheap for a while so not a lot to lose by hanging on to them.


I would put my money on Braun being the only current Brewer to play the rest of his career here. And that's just because no one wants his contract and injuries.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#25

Posted: July 17, 2017, 11:45 AM Post
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I would define core as guys you'd sign to an extension. Looks like the Brewers saw Villar as part of that potential core during the offseason (which I wouldn't have), but I do think this is a good definition because it shows a team's commitment to a player beyond the default control they already have.

This offseason is going to be an interesting one for Stearns, because I think he's going to start having to make those decisions about a year earlier than he thought he might. There are now a lot of players who look like types you're going to want to sign cheaper extensions now, rather than wait another year and risk them deciding to just wait for free agency (or want a much pricier extension).

Assuming players end this year with some matter of consistency from the performance they've had up to this point, I'd be potentially looking for extensions for (in order of most wanted to least):
- Chase Anderson
- Domingo Santana
- Jimmy Nelson
- Orlando Arcia
- Travis Shaw

I'd possibly add Corey Knebel to this list, but I'd have to look into whether these types of extensions are common for closers (or any relievers), and the success rate they've had in the past. Given the level of risk there, I'll leave him off the list for now.

The reason I chose these 5 players is not just for their own performance, but for our ability to replace them with minor league talent in the future. SS/3B is not necessarily a position of strength in the minors, and Shaw/Arcia have both shown talent that looks legitimate this year (Arcia more on defense than his recent BABIP influenced run at the plate). Pitching is always a position of need, and I'd say the biggest and happiest surprise of this season has been the steps forward for Nelson/Anderson, and there's plenty of reasoning from both to expect these improvements are sustainable (Anderson especially, which is why I rated him higher). Santana I've just always been high on, his minor league numbers were killer, he has great plate discipline and tons of power, and he just seemed like the guy that when given an extended chance would really develop into a special hitter, and he's showing that this year at a still pretty young age. If anything, I don't see this as his ceiling, and see many 30+ homer seasons coming for him. I'd rather lock that up now than wait.

I read an article recently that focused on Hahn's ability with the White Sox to lock up his young talent (2-ish years of experience) to contract extensions, and how that has been much more important than his negotiating skills at facilitating their current rebuild. Contract extensions for Sale/Quintana/Eaton took the potential returns for those players from high to astronomical. The hope was obviously that they'd play out those cheap extensions on winning White Sox teams, but it's a nice backup to have cost-controlled players available to trade on a struggling team, especially now that teams aren't wanting to give up top prospects for rentals nearly as much.

So anyways that post got a little long but I feel like core = players you'd sign to an extension is a good definition, and should be an interesting offseason for Stearns to say the least.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#26

Posted: July 17, 2017, 11:53 AM Post
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I view Shaw as part of the core but don't see an extension for him coming anytime soon, he will be 31 at the end of his time here just playing it year to year.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#27

Posted: July 17, 2017, 12:05 PM Post
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To me core players don't need to be stars but solid guys who you can build around & that will be here probably until Arby's is up at least.

Shaw could be a more productive McGehee
Domingo Santana is Corey Hart
Jimmy Nelson I'd put as a lower Yovani

Think Pina is a guy who could hang around & at least split time or be key bench bat if someone like Nottingham comes up.... productive, great team guy, brings ton of energy to clubhouse.

Arica is of course part of the core moving forward.

Thames at least until contract is up, no one coming before that in system to push him.

Knebel & hopefully Barnes can be.

We have a lot of guys with a lot of control, hard to say how it all shakes out. Nelson is only SP right now I care about keeping around. Would say Anderson is core, the rest can go away (Davies, Guerra, Garza)


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#28

Posted: July 17, 2017, 12:31 PM Post
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I think it is safe to say our core players are not defined compared to the rest of the contending teams. This is the main reason why I think it's too early to make a big splash before the deadline. Too many unknowns at this point.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#29

Posted: July 17, 2017, 12:55 PM Post
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In my mind "Core" guys are those you are thinking could likely retire with the team.

At this definition, I doubt any of these guys are core.

But for a longer term player:

Nelson - he has always been a bit of a tease to be dominant with control being his biggest bugaboo, but I think last year's loss of control was a fluke; a worst case outlier. This year is interesting to me because he has changed that way he pitched. For years he was forced to be a lowball pitcher. And now he moved up to a high-ball pitcher. As long as he controls his curveball, he will be effective (same with Anderson and Knebel there). Finally, as a pitcher, we need to take a chance that it is legit.

Shaw - The simple reason for him to be considered core is we don't have a replacement. Erceg might be, but is a few years away at this point. His MiLB numbers and scouting back up that he is a legit MLB bat. Maybe not a 900+ bat, but certainly a 750-850 type hitter. With no one to push him out, what other choice do we have? If Erceg starts knocking on the door, then you evaluate how long he stays or if he is trade bait.

Santana - I think he is probably the most "legit" of the three. Ironically, he is also the most replaceable with other prospects knocking at the door.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#30

Posted: July 17, 2017, 1:09 PM Post
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Outlander said:
I view Shaw as part of the core but don't see an extension for him coming anytime soon, he will be 31 at the end of his time here just playing it year to year.


Extensions for guys who haven't signed their first big contract yet typically only go a few years beyond free agency anyways. I'm fine locking up Shaw through age 33 or 34, plus those years would likely be club options anyways.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#31

Posted: July 17, 2017, 1:35 PM Post
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Arcia
Brinson
Santana

The others are good but no longer young.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#32

Posted: July 17, 2017, 1:41 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee
Edit: if we're talking guys who could be here a while (4yrs+) I'd say Santana, Shaw, Arcia, Knebel, Hader. I'd like to add Brinson, Phillips, Woodruff to that list by season's end.


Last edited by Humans Need Water on July 18, 2017, 1:27 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#33

Posted: July 17, 2017, 2:58 PM Post
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Part of my reasoning for that phrasing is that it provides some clarity, who is worth the risk of a 5+ year contract? Based on the other examples people are providing the other attempts to define a core are whose worth having around for awhile? That's not just subjective it's downright unhelpful for making decisions. We've got a ton of player who we very easily could feel very differently about their evaluations a year from now. A huge part of the roster management has been to rapidly cycle through a lot of guys looking for an opportunity one last time to prove themselves. Between being good at identifying candidates, being willing on that strategy to move on from guys, and a crazy amount of luck that that many nuggets paid off in the same season well, next year could be very different regardless of what any other team in the central does.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#34

Posted: July 17, 2017, 3:01 PM Post
Posts: 2832
Kiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, Arcia. That is the real Brewers core

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#35

Posted: July 17, 2017, 3:45 PM Post
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igor67 said:
Part of my reasoning for that phrasing is that it provides some clarity, who is worth the risk of a 5+ year contract? Based on the other examples people are providing the other attempts to define a core are whose worth having around for awhile? That's not just subjective it's downright unhelpful for making decisions.


That's fine, except your bar has moved from your original post "retire as a Brewer" to now (5 years+) That's a big difference.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#36

Posted: July 17, 2017, 3:47 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
Kiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, Arcia. That is the real Brewers core


2 average middle infielders and 3 back-end starters?

Oh boy.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#37

Posted: July 17, 2017, 4:04 PM Post
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My core of the team is Arcia and Santana. Some of the prospects obviously will join them but it is just too early to know which ones yet.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#38

Posted: July 17, 2017, 4:54 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
3and2Fastball said:
Kiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, Arcia. That is the real Brewers core


2 average middle infielders and 3 back-end starters?

Oh boy.


Average? Did you just call Arcia & Kiura average? Wow

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#39

Posted: July 17, 2017, 5:07 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
3and2Fastball said:
Kiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, Arcia. That is the real Brewers core


2 average middle infielders and 3 back-end starters?

Oh boy.
Dude you have some decent takes from time to time, but seriously cut your losses with this thread. I consider myself somewhat pessimistic about the Brewers this season in that I think they're gonna fade towards the end, but that doesn't mean I'm not enjoying the ride thus far. You're just playing devil's advocate at this point.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Core?
#40

Posted: July 17, 2017, 5:24 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
Kiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, Arcia. That is the real Brewers core

*Hiura


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