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Second Wild Card

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Offline  Second Wild Card
#1

Posted: July 31, 2017, 9:46 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
Even if the Cubs pull away with the Division, the Brewers still have a very good chance at the 2nd Wild Card.

The Rockies started off hot in April (16-10) despite being outscored that month. Since then they've cooled off somewhat.

They still have to play Cleveland (2), Kansas City (3), Milwaukee (3), with 7 games left against the Dodgers and 7 games left against Arizona.

They're first in the NL in runs scored and tenth in runs allowed. They have one starter with more than 90 IP and a FIP under 4.79. In other words, the Rockies may have peaked early and the shoddy pitching and difficult schedule will be their undoing down the stretch.

By contrast, outside of the three head to head games with Colorado, the Brewers only have 14 games remaining against teams currently with a winning record (7 against the Cubs, 4 against the Dodgers and 3 against Washington). The primary starting pitchers used by the Brewers all have FIPs below 4.42

The second wild card isn't ideal, but for a surprise team in a rebuild, I'll take it!


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#2

Posted: July 31, 2017, 9:52 AM Post
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We keep waiting for that shoe to drop with Colorado, and it's just not happening, and the days are starting to get short, and now we're 5 1/2 games behind them. That's by no means an insurmountable lead, but a lot of people keep saying the Rockies don't have the pitching to hang, they have a tough schedule, they don't hit away from Coors (all true!), but they keep winning enough to stay ahead of the Brewers by a fairly comfortable margin so far. We went 12 - 13 in July, the Rocks went 12 - 12. We'll see where it goes from here.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#3

Posted: July 31, 2017, 10:07 AM Post
Posts: 6397
Location: Kenosha, WI
Brewers dug themselves into a pretty big hole with the losing woes the last two weeks. They were actually tied with the Rockies at one point. Then they blew a tire...or four.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#4

Posted: July 31, 2017, 10:16 AM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
We keep waiting for that shoe to drop with Colorado, and it's just not happening, and the days are starting to get short, and now we're 5 1/2 games behind them. That's by no means an insurmountable lead, but a lot of people keep saying the Rockies don't have the pitching to hang, they have a tough schedule, they don't hit away from Coors (all true!), but they keep winning enough to stay ahead of the Brewers by a fairly comfortable margin so far. We went 12 - 13 in July, the Rocks went 12 - 12. We'll see where it goes from here.


The Rockies are 13-20 over their last 33 games. The shoe has dropped and continues to drop. We just haven't taken advantage of it as we went 17-17 over that same time frame.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#5

Posted: July 31, 2017, 10:37 AM Post
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Ennder said:
RoCoBrewfan said:
We keep waiting for that shoe to drop with Colorado, and it's just not happening, and the days are starting to get short, and now we're 5 1/2 games behind them. That's by no means an insurmountable lead, but a lot of people keep saying the Rockies don't have the pitching to hang, they have a tough schedule, they don't hit away from Coors (all true!), but they keep winning enough to stay ahead of the Brewers by a fairly comfortable margin so far. We went 12 - 13 in July, the Rocks went 12 - 12. We'll see where it goes from here.


The Rockies are 13-20 over their last 33 games. The shoe has dropped and continues to drop. We just haven't taken advantage of it as we went 17-17 over that same time frame.



Or..... they are 27 - 24 in june and July. You can split up samples however you want to get the result that favors a desired hypothesis. The Rockies had an 8 game losing streak. Since that streak ended, they're 12 - 11. Every team will go through losing streaks. Maybe the Rockies got theirs out of the way. The Brewers are still stuck in their cold snap.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#6

Posted: July 31, 2017, 10:42 AM Post
Posts: 331
Location: Arizona
5.5 games behind a team that has played well all season, is far from "a very good chance" at that spot. Assuming we do nothing today, I think that's the white flag of surrender for 2017.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#7

Posted: July 31, 2017, 10:51 AM Post
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Fangraphs gives us a 5.5% chance at securing the second wild card. If the Rockies falter, there will suddenly be a pack of near-.500 teams all fighting for that spot.

It's hard to digest knowing we just had a 5.5 game division lead, but the Brewers went from a likely playoff team to longshot in 2 weeks.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#8

Posted: July 31, 2017, 10:55 AM Post
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Lee16 said:
5.5 games behind a team that has played well all season, is far from "a very good chance" at that spot. Assuming we do nothing today, I think that's the white flag of surrender for 2017.


I mean, it could be. But getting Chase Anderson back is a pretty big acquisition. Chase being added back to the mix plus Guerra being replaced is a fairly decent upgrade to the rotation.

I actually think the biggest change from the first part of the season to this recent hiccup has been the offensive production at 2B. We all thought Sogard was going to come back to earth but I think the hope was Villar would wake up in time to transfer. The “first inning Brewers” we got accustomed to haven’t been there the 2nd half.

The biggest help to the Brewers the rest of the way via trade may very well be Ian Kinsler and not an arm.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#9

Posted: July 31, 2017, 10:58 AM Post
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liveforoctober said:
Lee16 said:
5.5 games behind a team that has played well all season, is far from "a very good chance" at that spot. Assuming we do nothing today, I think that's the white flag of surrender for 2017.


I mean, it could be. But getting Chase Anderson back is a pretty big acquisition. Chase being added back to the mix plus Guerra being replaced is a fairly decent upgrade to the rotation.

I actually think the biggest change from the first part of the season to this recent hiccup has been the offensive production at 2B. We all thought Sogard was going to come back to earth but I think the hope was Villar would wake up in time to transfer. The “first inning Brewers” we got accustomed to haven’t been there the 2nd half.

The biggest help to the Brewers the rest of the way via trade may very well be Ian Kinsler and not an arm.


They could be the "first inning Brewers" if Counsell would stop batting Villar leadoff. That's a leadoff out almost 75% of the time.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#10

Posted: July 31, 2017, 11:11 AM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
liveforoctober said:
Lee16 said:
5.5 games behind a team that has played well all season, is far from "a very good chance" at that spot. Assuming we do nothing today, I think that's the white flag of surrender for 2017.


I mean, it could be. But getting Chase Anderson back is a pretty big acquisition. Chase being added back to the mix plus Guerra being replaced is a fairly decent upgrade to the rotation.

I actually think the biggest change from the first part of the season to this recent hiccup has been the offensive production at 2B. We all thought Sogard was going to come back to earth but I think the hope was Villar would wake up in time to transfer. The “first inning Brewers” we got accustomed to haven’t been there the 2nd half.

The biggest help to the Brewers the rest of the way via trade may very well be Ian Kinsler and not an arm.


They could be the "first inning Brewers" if Counsell would stop batting Villar leadoff. That's a leadoff out almost 75% of the time.


I don't disagree with you.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#11

Posted: July 31, 2017, 11:47 AM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:


Or..... they are 27 - 24 in june and July. You can split up samples however you want to get the result that favors a desired hypothesis. The Rockies had an 8 game losing streak. Since that streak ended, they're 12 - 11. Every team will go through losing streaks. Maybe the Rockies got theirs out of the way. The Brewers are still stuck in their cold snap.


Regardless of the sample you pick it look like the hot start was not for real. The Rockies are probably a .500 team or slightly under .500 before trades they make. They certainly aren't the power house they were made out to be in May. People were saying the wild card race was over back in early June and that clearly isn't true.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#12

Posted: July 31, 2017, 12:26 PM Post
Posts: 331
Location: Arizona
I agree about Kinsler as well, if he can be gotten fairly cheaply, I think there is some definite upside there.

Even if Anderson comes back and is the same guy, by the time he is back, what will we really get out of him, six meaningful starts? That was why I would have been for a Gray or Staily deal. They help immediately this year, and if next year goes south on us, we could flip them to recoup some assets.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#13

Posted: August 19, 2017, 9:39 PM Post
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Getting closer and closer to that second wild card spot. Just 3.5 games behind AZ now.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#14

Posted: August 19, 2017, 9:54 PM Post
Posts: 7243
these next two weeks are huge. We've gone 1-1 in this brutal 15 game stretch. The division is a challenge with the Cubs talent and their 2nd half ranked as a much easier schedule. Need to take care of business in these 15 games, especially the Cubs games. If we can go 8-7, that's damn good


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#15

Posted: August 19, 2017, 10:46 PM Post
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stay close going into sept


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#16

Posted: August 20, 2017, 7:15 AM Post
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Two teams are within reach and no other team in between. Every game is big.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#17

Posted: August 31, 2017, 3:05 AM Post

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3.0 back for second wild card, and 3.5 back for the nl central lead.

i don't know much about the rockies' september reinforcements, but i'm sure excited about what the brewers have with their reserves.

tomorrow's roster expansion can't come soon enough.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#18

Posted: August 31, 2017, 3:24 AM Post
Posts: 301
djoctagone said:
3.0 back for second wild card, and 3.5 back for the nl central lead.

i don't know much about the rockies' september reinforcements, but i'm sure excited about what the brewers have with their reserves.

tomorrow's roster expansion can't come soon enough.



With 7 games left against the Cubs, it looks like the it may be division that offers the best shot at a post-season appearance for the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#19

Posted: August 31, 2017, 6:24 AM Post
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OnTheBlack said:
djoctagone said:
3.0 back for second wild card, and 3.5 back for the nl central lead.

i don't know much about the rockies' september reinforcements, but i'm sure excited about what the brewers have with their reserves.

tomorrow's roster expansion can't come soon enough.



With 7 games left against the Cubs, it looks like the it may be division that offers the best shot at a post-season appearance for the Brewers.


I really don't think so. It would take pretty much going 5-2 against them just to make things interesting, and even 5-2 would not be enough to give us the lead at this point, so we'd still need to make up ground against a considerably tougher schedule than the Cubs. I know we try to say schedule doesn't matter, but it obviously does. Since the Cubs left Arizona and began the soft part of their schedule, they've done exactly what one would expect -- gone 11-5. We have been playing pretty good baseball, and still haven't been able to make up ground, because the Cubs' schedule is just that soft, and it isn't getting much more difficult in September.

So if they don't crumble against a soft September schedule, it will take us going 6-1 or 7-0 against them, or going on an insanely good run like a Dodger July, to win the division. While both are theoretically possible, neither are very realistic.

Contrast that to the Rockies, whom we have a smaller margin with, and who have a killer schedule in September that includes two different series' with the Dodgers, two series' against Arizona, and the Marlins once.

At the end of the day, it really doesn't matter much which we're shooting for -- all we can control is our own games, and winning them. I would expect that if we go out strong with a 17-12 or so finish, that will be good enough to get in. But not good enough to win the division.


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Offline  Re: Second Wild Card
#20

Posted: August 31, 2017, 6:51 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
It would take pretty much going 5-2 against them just to make things interesting, and even 5-2 would not be enough to give us the lead at this point, so we'd still need to make up ground against a considerably tougher schedule than the Cubs.


After this weekend, our schedules are essentially the same. If we are still within 3 on Monday, the division is still within reach.

I am not Shea Vucinich


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