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Yankees get Sonny Gray

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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#41

Posted: July 31, 2017, 2:21 PM Post
Posts: 301
A Swing and A Drive said:
RoCoBrewfan said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
Both Fowler and Kaprielian are coming off major injuries and Mateo's prospect stock is way down.

Brewers could and should have beaten this package with relative ease.

Terrible.


Why? Starting pitching is absolutely the very least of the Brewers problems right now. Garza and Anderson are both nearly back, Suter has pitched very well, Nelson has been close to an ace, and Davies has been lights out for nearly two months. Giving up this kind of package for a position that there's absolutely no need makes zero sense whatsoever.


Zach Davies lights out???

There are no words...


3.75 since april 25
Sub 3 july?

Wouldnt call him lights out but deserves a rotation spot

Blue... that's gray


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#42

Posted: July 31, 2017, 2:44 PM Post
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82brewcrew82 said:
I'm thinking Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon would have gotten it done.


My God would that have been disastrous.

I hate the Cubs. I hope they die.


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Online  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#43

Posted: July 31, 2017, 3:44 PM Post
Posts: 223
Location: Milwaukee
Davies has a 3.7 ERA his last 18 starts and 16 of those netted a 2.96 ERA. 10 of those starts he gave up 2ER or fewer and 3 more starts he gave up 3ER. He's been productive.

As got a lot of talented dudes back. Beating that deal would have been a horrendous decision.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#44

Posted: July 31, 2017, 6:14 PM Post
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I get not wanting to overpay, and I get the value of prospects.

But barring a trade to the Dodgers or Angels, Braun will be here for at least three more years, Santana is controlled for four more years, then you have Brinson, Phillips, Broxton... where are those guys all going to play? Plus the next wave of Ray, Clark, Harrison, Stokes, etc.

And I really think that Ray is a depreciating asset, and will be worth less two years from now and was best moved now.

There is a risk to making acquisitions. There is also a risk to not making acquisitions. Not all prospects pan out, and if there isn't room on the major league club they have no value sitting on the bench.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#45

Posted: July 31, 2017, 6:20 PM Post
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Ray and Clark and Harrison are more than a way Off IMO.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#46

Posted: July 31, 2017, 6:36 PM Post
Posts: 426
Location: Madison, WI
reillymcshane and I had both done an analysis of Gray's estimated surplus value in the big Sonny Gray thread and both of us estimated his surplus value was in the neighborhood of 40 million dollars.

Prospect surplus value for the players headed to Oakland:
-Dustin Fowler = 22.042 million (easy estimate because he's in the 76-100 range on both the MLB.com list and on the Baseball America update)
-Jorge Mateo = 10.7 million (top 10 organizational prospect, another easy estimate as he isn't in the top 100 on either list but few would argue that he's not organizational top 10 quality)
-James Kaprielian = 10.7 million (top 10 organizational prospect, I would argue that he should be downgraded because of injury but I'd guess that the broad consensus opinion would still rate him as in this group)
Total prospect surplus value = 43.442 million

The money just slightly favors the A's, but then with international bonus money going back to New York then I would call this trade dead even from the numbers standpoint. In fact, I am surprised by how even this trade turned out to be.

BUT.....(there is always one of those) Personally, if I were an A's fan I would absolutely hate this trade. Mainly because I am not big on James Kaprielian. I don't care how much upside a player has, if a pitcher is drafted in 2015 and only has a total of 56 innings at the end of the 2017 season...that's a huge question mark for me. Not to mention the last I heard is that Kaprielian is unlikely to be ready at the beginning of next season (should be ready a month or two into the season). And considering the A's did not get a top 50 type headliner in this deal, that makes the third piece in this deal a very important piece. And if the rumors were accurate, the player the A's really desired was Florial and they couldn't even pull him out of the deal...really comes off like they were resigned to trade Gray and in the end they let the big market team push them around and having everything dictated to them. Very disappointing. IMO doing a "hold" on Gray would have been an absolute no-brainer choice if this was the best deal that was offered.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#47

Posted: July 31, 2017, 6:49 PM Post
Posts: 426
Location: Madison, WI
This is my latest estimate of the prospect surplus value for players in the Brewer's system. The list includes Hader and Suter since they are such recent graduates.

66.34 million - Lewis Brinson (hitter 11-25)
22.042 million - Corey Ray, Isan Diaz (hitter 76-100)
17.655 million - Josh Hader (pitcher 51-75)
17.441 million - Keston Hiura (back end of top 100 hitter/barely outside list)
17.1735 million - Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (between pitcher 51-75 and pitcher 76-100)
12.84 million - Corbin Burnes (back end of top 100 pitcher/barely outside list)
10.7 million - Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Mauricio Dubon, Lucas Erceg, Tristen Lutz, Monte Harrison ("top 10 organizational prospect")
7.49 million - Phil Bickford, Marcos Diplan, Freddy Peralta (between "top 10 organizational prospect" and "role player prospect")
5.35 million - Jacob Nottingham, Cody Ponce, Jake Gatewood, Brent Suter, KJ Harrison, Trey Supak ("role player prospect")
2.14 million - all other prospects ("fringe prospect")

Get pieces that add up to 40-43 million and you've basically equaled what the Yankees gave up. Just don't do anything foolish like picking one of the 7.49 million players, adding in all six of the 5.35 million players and then throwing in a 2.14 fringe prospects and saying you are up to 41+ million. An eight for one deal wasn't going to happen. I'd say the rules are that player #1 has to be a minimum of a 17.1735 million dollar player, player #2 has to be a minimum of a 10.7 million dollar player and no more than 4 players total can be included. Follow those three rules, mix and match and IMO any combination that adds up to at least 40 million would have been a far and competitive offer for Gray.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#48

Posted: July 31, 2017, 6:53 PM Post
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As I said in the trade rumors forum, Gray's trade value comes down today no matter what happens, because if they don't trade him they lose the trade value of one playoff run.

They asked for too much too early. Should have enticed a bidding war two weeks ago.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#49

Posted: July 31, 2017, 7:10 PM Post
Posts: 426
Location: Madison, WI
Agree with you LouisEly, seems like the A's really misplayed the market and perhaps screwed themselves in the end. And I also agree that his price should go down from here, but it is possible that if he pitches plus-plus for the next two months he will hold slightly less but still comparable value to what he has now. He is coming off a bad 2016 season and a really strong last two months would probably make trade partners feel a bit better about 2018 and 2019 than they feel now. On the other hand, if he got hurt in September it would be a complete disaster for the A's. I agree that the possible downside is much greater if the A's would have held onto him. That being said, I'd only move a player if I felt I got back proper value, and due to my concerns with Kapreilian I don't think the A's got proper value back.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#50

Posted: July 31, 2017, 9:03 PM Post
Posts: 10643
I see the equivalent of Dubon, Ponce, and Ray or Clark. I'd have done that in a heartbeat.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#51

Posted: July 31, 2017, 10:07 PM Post
Posts: 2817
JohnBriggs12 said:
I see the equivalent of Dubon, Ponce, and Ray or Clark. I'd have done that in a heartbeat.


Ray & Clark are having very unimpressive minor league seasons. Billy Beane hangs up on that proposal. The only question is whether you hear him laughing before you hear the dial tone.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#52

Posted: August 01, 2017, 5:31 AM Post
Posts: 1740
JohnBriggs12 said:
I see the equivalent of Dubon, Ponce, and Ray or Clark. I'd have done that in a heartbeat.


That group is not going to get a guy like Gray especially in heavy bidding.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#53

Posted: August 01, 2017, 5:46 AM Post
Posts: 2838
Boomer5 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
I see the equivalent of Dubon, Ponce, and Ray or Clark. I'd have done that in a heartbeat.


That group is not going to get a guy like Gray especially in heavy bidding.


The Brewers offered Ray in trades and teams weren't interested. He can't hit. Terrible draft selection. Clark is a much better prospect.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#54

Posted: August 01, 2017, 7:31 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
I get not wanting to overpay, and I get the value of prospects.

But barring a trade to the Dodgers or Angels, Braun will be here for at least three more years, Santana is controlled for four more years, then you have Brinson, Phillips, Broxton... where are those guys all going to play? Plus the next wave of Ray, Clark, Harrison, Stokes, etc.

And I really think that Ray is a depreciating asset, and will be worth less two years from now and was best moved now.

There is a risk to making acquisitions. There is also a risk to not making acquisitions. Not all prospects pan out, and if there isn't room on the major league club they have no value sitting on the bench.


I agree that we will need to do something with the OF logjam. They did move Cordell for Swarzak, which cleared up one MLB ready/40 man guy. I'd guess this offseason we will see one of Broxton/Phillips traded, and the other will be our 4th OF in 2018. I guess the best scenario would be that Broxton gets brought back up and gets on one of his hot streaks, where he "plays like Mays" and that entices someone to give up something of value in trade.

I think rival GMs probably share your feelings on Ray, which is why he wasn't seen as a headliner in trades, and why they all insisted on Brinson. Again, best case is that he starts playing well. If he doesn't, he just becomes another failed Brewer first rounder.

Stearns made some moves. Not headliner moves, but he picked up Vogt and traded for some relief help. He didn't want to trade Brinson or Hader, which is understandable, so he got outbid on the players who would have given our rotation an upgrade.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#55

Posted: August 01, 2017, 7:38 AM Post
Posts: 250
JohnBriggs12 said:
I see the equivalent of Dubon, Ponce, and Ray or Clark. I'd have done that in a heartbeat.



Not even close.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#56

Posted: August 01, 2017, 7:47 AM Post
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We were never going to get a fair deal for Sonny Gray because his name has more value than his arm does. He is an undersized 3.50 ERA type of pitcher with bad mechanics and a significant injury history that is seen as an ace because he had a couple of heavily park influenced elite looking seasons.

Dubon, Ponce and Clark is probably a fair offer for him but it was never going to actually get him. In Yankee stadium I'll take the over on a 3.50 ERA and the under on 2 seasons worth of innings.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#57

Posted: August 01, 2017, 7:59 AM Post
Posts: 781
We don't know what names the Brewers bandied about. I guess the A's got the 4/8/12 prospects of the Yankees. The org rankings for any given team can vary so that offers no real precision. I wonder if we offered something like Ray, Woodruff, and Clark. That's two low end top 100 guys and a former number fifteen overall pick, and FWIW the Brewers' 2/4/13 ranked guys. I would have done that, but it's hard to say if anything like that was viable for the A's.


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Online  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#58

Posted: August 01, 2017, 9:52 AM Post
Posts: 223
Location: Milwaukee
Never Outhustled said:
Boomer5 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
I see the equivalent of Dubon, Ponce, and Ray or Clark. I'd have done that in a heartbeat.


That group is not going to get a guy like Gray especially in heavy bidding.


The Brewers offered Ray in trades and teams weren't interested. He can't hit. Terrible draft selection. Clark is a much better prospect.

He's developing and working on certain aspects of his offensive game. That's the point of the minors. To develop and grow. Just because you're an advanced college bat and 1st rd pick doesn't mean you don't have things to work on. Come 12 months from now it'll make for interesting conversation looking back on people's comments regarding Ray (and Clark for that matter). Zack Collins is hitting 209 with a 763 OPS (only because he's much more of a power bat than Ray). Every player develops differently


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#59

Posted: August 01, 2017, 10:28 AM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
I said this in the other thread on Gray and I will repeat this again. The A's were not interested in our second tier prospects beyond Brinson. While Clark, Doubon and others may seem fair the A's didn't see those players as having as much value as what they received from the Yankees.

I believe Phillips, Ortiz, and one more was the offer Stearns gave the A's and they just didn't value Phillips and Ortiz more than what the Yankees gave up. The only way I could see the Brewers getting Gray would have been with losing Brinson and that would have been a historically bad trade for the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: Yankees get Sonny Gray
#60

Posted: August 01, 2017, 10:44 AM Post
Posts: 431
I'll add my two cents here.

As others have said, the A's likely wanted Brinson from the Brewers. It appears that they did not have interest in our second tier prospects.

As a result, the only way anything would have ever gotten done is if they had not traded Doolittle and Madson or were willing to trade Yonder Alonso.

I have a feeling Stearns would have traded Brinson + Dubon/Ortiz/Ray/ + lesser prospect for Gray/Doolitle/Madson or Brinson + Dubon/Ortiz/Ray/ + lesser prospect for Gray/Alonso.

The Brewers then could have turned around and traded Thames or Alonso.

In the end, likely just too many variables to overcome. It also didn't help that the Brewers took a nose dive after the break and I'm sure Stearns became much less enthusiastic.


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