LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next  [ 74 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?

Author Message
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#41

Posted: August 05, 2017, 12:24 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1318
Location: At the gettin' place
jjfanec said:
I just don't understand why people are so quick to right off Hader as a starter. I feel like you have to let a guy fail as a starter before moving him to the pen. Hader has not failed. And if he does become a reliever Counsel needs to commit to him as a multiple inning reliever until it is apparent he can't do that. His WHIP is almost done to 1. Over a strikeout per inning. Obviously the walks need to come down but guys struggle to get good contact against him.

I understand what you're saying, but at this point he really doesn't command any of his pitches. Take some velocity away by asking him to throw 100 pitches instead of 30 and I could see him getting hit hard.

He certainly can still do it, but improved command is a must.

I hate the Cubs. I hope they die.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#42

Posted: August 05, 2017, 12:31 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3653
cubsdie said:
jjfanec said:
I just don't understand why people are so quick to right off Hader as a starter. I feel like you have to let a guy fail as a starter before moving him to the pen. Hader has not failed. And if he does become a reliever Counsel needs to commit to him as a multiple inning reliever until it is apparent he can't do that. His WHIP is almost done to 1. Over a strikeout per inning. Obviously the walks need to come down but guys struggle to get good contact against him.

I understand what you're saying, but at this point he really doesn't command any of his pitches. Take some velocity away by asking him to throw 100 pitches instead of 30 and I could see him getting hit hard.

He certainly can still do it, but improved command is a must.


He may not be a starter but he needs to prove he can't is my main post. I mean we run Garza, Guerra, Suter, etc out there so we can probably afford to give Hader some run (next year not this)


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#43

Posted: August 05, 2017, 12:50 PM Post
Posts: 142
adambr2 said:
While it seems clear the Brewers are content with Hader in the bullpen for the rest of the season, where does he go from here in 2018?

Its going to be hard to give him a rotation spot at least to start 2018 at the MLB level, given the competition. You'd also like to not further weaken the weak point of this team when he's been very successful in his role. But you also don't want to get too far away from him starting if you think his future is a high end starter.

If you're going to groom him in the pen, you could be looking at a future closer, or perhaps a 'bullpen ace' situational type role. Where can he be the most successful and provide the best value to the team?



I could see the Brewers giving him even one more year as a reliever...albeit one who gets more run and who pitches more regularly and then becomes a starter. Maybe he even becomes a starter during the year next year similar to what the Twins did with Santana(yes, different situations, but the end result may be the same).

If I had to put money on the table and say where is he gonna help us out the most, I would probably say in an Andrew Miller type role(though as much as I like him, he's not Miller). But I would certainly like to see him given a shot to be a starting pitcher.

The Brewers are closer than they've been since Nick Neugabauer, Ben Sheets, Jeff D'Amico and JM Gold were all in their organization to having what could be a really solid home grown rotation. It's possible we could see a rotation of Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, Barnes, Ortiz and maybe a Peralta or any number of other options mixed in there as well.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#44

Posted: August 05, 2017, 12:57 PM Post
Posts: 6102
Location: Kenosha, WI
3and2Fastball said:
I don't know if Hader can throw 98 consistently as a starter. He's much more hittable cruising at 93-94, although his slider is filthy. I like him more coming out of the pen blazing 98


He doesn't consistently throw 98.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#45

Posted: August 05, 2017, 1:59 PM Post
Posts: 142
MrTPlush said:
3and2Fastball said:
I don't know if Hader can throw 98 consistently as a starter. He's much more hittable cruising at 93-94, although his slider is filthy. I like him more coming out of the pen blazing 98


He doesn't consistently throw 98.


Ok, change it to 97. He can consistently crank it up to 97 when he needs to.

But that's not really the point. The question is can he maintain his velocity through 100 pitches as a starter. But isn't that kinda the question with every young pitcher?

I do know that he can't possibly maintain his nearly 6BB/9 IP ratio as a starter, but hopefully he can clean that up. It does seem like his fastball gets on hitters a little quicker because of his delivery and he may still have a little bit of projection left in him.

I see Fangraphs has his changeup rated as a 50 right now with a potential future grade of 60 for what that's worth. I think his ability to hit that grade answers the question as to where his future lies. For reference sake his fastball is 60/60 and his slider is 55/60. So at least they view his changeup as being a more than viable 3rd pitch.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#46

Posted: August 05, 2017, 5:35 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1318
Location: At the gettin' place
jjfanec said:
cubsdie said:
jjfanec said:
I just don't understand why people are so quick to right off Hader as a starter. I feel like you have to let a guy fail as a starter before moving him to the pen. Hader has not failed. And if he does become a reliever Counsel needs to commit to him as a multiple inning reliever until it is apparent he can't do that. His WHIP is almost done to 1. Over a strikeout per inning. Obviously the walks need to come down but guys struggle to get good contact against him.

I understand what you're saying, but at this point he really doesn't command any of his pitches. Take some velocity away by asking him to throw 100 pitches instead of 30 and I could see him getting hit hard.

He certainly can still do it, but improved command is a must.


He may not be a starter but he needs to prove he can't is my main post. I mean we run Garza, Guerra, Suter, etc out there so we can probably afford to give Hader some run (next year not this)


Agree pretty much. Garza and Suter have been pretty good though.

I hate the Cubs. I hope they die.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#47

Posted: August 06, 2017, 9:43 AM Post
Posts: 296
Why does he have to prove he can't be a starter... when we know that RIGHT NOW he won't prove he can be a starter. His control will not allow him to get deep into games. His seconday offerings are rarely strikes.

He needs to sort that out. I've called for him to be in the pen for 2017 and now 2018. Yet, I'm no where near writing him off as a starter. He's not ready to be a starter yet. It's foolish to see if he can cut it there now because he likely won't in his current state and that would prove nothing in regards to his ability to start once he refines his control.

He's up now because he's so talented that he's already useful... he's not up because he's ready.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#48

Posted: August 06, 2017, 10:19 AM Post
Posts: 3005
TJseven7 said:
Why does he have to prove he can't be a starter... when we know that RIGHT NOW he won't prove he can be a starter. His control will not allow him to get deep into games. His seconday offerings are rarely strikes.

He needs to sort that out. I've called for him to be in the pen for 2017 and now 2018. Yet, I'm no where near writing him off as a starter. He's not ready to be a starter yet. It's foolish to see if he can cut it there now because he likely won't in his current state and that would prove nothing in regards to his ability to start once he refines his control.

He's up now because he's so talented that he's already useful... he's not up because he's ready.


Hader's floor is as a relief ace/closer. Yet the depth the Brewers have is probably going to keep him at his floor through 2018. He will need to be stretched out as a starter, though, because he has much more value there if he succeeds.

But in 2018, a combo of Jeffress/Hader/Knebel at the back end looks very good to me. Figure Wang and Guerra will also paly parts in the pen.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#49

Posted: August 07, 2017, 12:02 AM Post
Posts: 296
He's at his floor because his control is keeping him there. I dont believe his advancement as a pitcher is dependent on being in the rotation. His advancement in value does depend on it. His innings could be upped in the pen... not as easily but it can... his control can as well. Unless you believe he can only gain control by being a starter I don't see how you can argue that.

Right now he's at his floor in usage and competence. He can get closer to his ceiling in usage in the pen... and much closer to his ceiling in overall competence in the pen.

The key thing in what you say is if he succeeds. We'll see that train coming down the tracks in the pen... where he's currently valuable... just as easy as we would in the rotation... where hes likely last years valezquez at this point... whuch isn't very valuable.

So do you prefer value now... and if he develops a delay in stretching him to his pinnacle. Or making him rotation bound in the hopes he'll hit his pinnacle faster... despite the fact that his value to the team will likely dramatically drop as he finds his way?

I like option 1.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#50

Posted: August 07, 2017, 8:25 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5195
TJseven7, I don't disagree with you, and I think that's all fine as long as money doesn't matter, but it does. My concern is that we will "groom him" in the majors during his pre-arby years, and then get 1.5 - 2.5 years of him as a starter before we trade him away. The team that eventually signs him to a big-money deal when he's entering his prime will be very pleased that we used all of his service time "grooming him" and kept innings down so they're less worried about him getting injured.

The Brewers need to maximize the value of their players. I don't think bringing prospects up before they're ready is maximizing value. They did it with Arcia and they're doing it with Hader. Maybe they just don't want players spending time at Colorado Springs, but they're going to lose their top players sooner because they're bringing them up before they're ready.

Hader's been up nearly two months (June 9 call-up) and has 21.1 IP. For some reason, people are happy that Hader's first year of service time will net the Brewers around 40 IP, and will not give him enough innings to even have consideration for a rotation spot in 2018. If you're going to burn a year to try to help the team make the playoffs, at least use the guy every now & then.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#51

Posted: August 08, 2017, 12:57 PM Post
Posts: 3982
I'm fairly slow to criticize managers and GM's. I tend to try to understand why management does something instead of claiming how smart a move it is (or isn't.) For the life of me I cannot understand what benefit there is using Hader like they have been. Not only does it seem to make no sense for this season but I can't see the long term benefit. As Monty57 said we are losing a year of control for a few shaky innings here and there.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#52

Posted: August 08, 2017, 1:33 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3865
TJseven7 said:
Why does he have to prove he can't be a starter... when we know that RIGHT NOW he won't prove he can be a starter. His control will not allow him to get deep into games. His seconday offerings are rarely strikes.

It's not just that his secondary pitches are rarely strikes, it's also that he rarely even tries throwing anything except fastballs.

Yesterday Hader had two strikes on nearly every batter he faced, but rarely felt confident enough to trust that he could throw a quality enough slider to get a K. Of his 41 pitches, 37 were fastballs.

So Twins hitters kept fouling off two strike fastballs, eventually getting hits, walks, and/or jacking up his pitch count in that long 5th inning. Had he thrown a good slider to any of those guys in 2-2 or 3-2 counts, easy strikeout. He's flashed some really nice outings so far, but he's not even a two pitch pitcher at this point, more a 1 1/2 pitch pitcher. On the rare occasions he does throw a quality slider, batters usually look ugly flailing at it. His change up is non-existent.

It's pretty amazing that he's been as productive as he's been throwing almost entirely fastballs.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#53

Posted: August 08, 2017, 1:37 PM Post
Posts: 2758
I don't know how he can be expected to start with just 2 pitches. Maybe if he develops a changeup

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#54

Posted: August 08, 2017, 1:51 PM Post
Posts: 162
Location: New Berlin, WI
danzig6767 said:
TJseven7 said:
Why does he have to prove he can't be a starter... when we know that RIGHT NOW he won't prove he can be a starter. His control will not allow him to get deep into games. His seconday offerings are rarely strikes.

It's not just that his secondary pitches are rarely strikes, it's also that he rarely even tries throwing anything except fastballs.

Yesterday Hader had two strikes on nearly every batter he faced, but rarely felt confident enough to trust that he could throw a quality enough slider to get a K. Of his 41 pitches, 37 were fastballs.

So Twins hitters kept fouling off two strike fastballs, eventually getting hits, walks, and/or jacking up his pitch count in that long 5th inning. Had he thrown a good slider to any of those guys in 2-2 or 3-2 counts, easy strikeout. He's flashed some really nice outings so far, but he's not even a two pitch pitcher at this point, more a 1 1/2 pitch pitcher. On the rare occasions he does throw a quality slider, batters usually look ugly flailing at it. His change up is non-existent.

It's pretty amazing that he's been as productive as he's been throwing almost entirely fastballs.


Except it really isn't as surprising as you seem to suggest. His fastball is an easy plus offering, and plays up even more with a deceptive delivery and arm slot. It seems many of you want to seem him throw off speed stuff as if he's currently auditioning for a starter role. His job is to get outs right now. Up until this outing, most hitters he's faced have been completely overmatched by his fastball. Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters? It's fairly common for starting pitchers to not unveil their entire arsenal first time through the order. He probably should have mixed in more off speed stuff this outing, but it also is fairly common for guys to stick to the fastball on 2-2 and 3-2 counts to give a higher chance of throwing a strike. I'm sure he'll learn from it and adjust accordingly.

You should really watch some video or read scouting reports or do some form of research before making such an ill-informed comment that "he's a 1 1/2 pitch pitcher".


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#55

Posted: August 08, 2017, 2:17 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3865
KeithStone53151 said:

Except it really isn't as surprising as you seem to suggest. His fastball is an easy plus offering, and plays up even more with a deceptive delivery and arm slot. It seems many of you want to seem him throw off speed stuff as if he's currently auditioning for a starter role. His job is to get outs right now. Up until this outing, most hitters he's faced have been completely overmatched by his fastball. Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters? It's fairly common for starting pitchers to not unveil their entire arsenal first time through the order. He probably should have mixed in more off speed stuff this outing, but it also is fairly common for guys to stick to the fastball on 2-2 and 3-2 counts to give a higher chance of throwing a strike. I'm sure he'll learn from it and adjust accordingly.

Get out f here with that nonsense about appeasing bf.net posters. It has nothing to do with that. He was fortunate to get out of that jam, but it took him 40 pitches and loading the bases because he couldn't put hitters away with two strikes because he threw almost nothing but fastballs. If he had any confidence at all in his slider, he'd have thrown them more and struck out batters sitting entirely on his fastball.

Pitchers with confidence in secondary pitches often use them in 2-2 and 3-2 counts, but Hader doesn't or else he'd thrown his slider more. I have no idea at this point if eventually Hader can cut it as a starter or if he ends up with a career as a relief pitcher, both roles have value in today's baseball with an increased importance of relief pitching. At some point though he's not going to keep getting away with throwing entirely just fastballs, especially to righthanded hitters.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#56

Posted: August 08, 2017, 2:46 PM Post
Posts: 162
Location: New Berlin, WI
danzig6767 said:
KeithStone53151 said:

Except it really isn't as surprising as you seem to suggest. His fastball is an easy plus offering, and plays up even more with a deceptive delivery and arm slot. It seems many of you want to seem him throw off speed stuff as if he's currently auditioning for a starter role. His job is to get outs right now. Up until this outing, most hitters he's faced have been completely overmatched by his fastball. Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters? It's fairly common for starting pitchers to not unveil their entire arsenal first time through the order. He probably should have mixed in more off speed stuff this outing, but it also is fairly common for guys to stick to the fastball on 2-2 and 3-2 counts to give a higher chance of throwing a strike. I'm sure he'll learn from it and adjust accordingly.

Get out f here with that nonsense about appeasing bf.net posters. It has nothing to do with that. He was fortunate to get out of that jam, but it took him 40 pitches and loading the bases because he couldn't put hitters away with two strikes because he threw almost nothing but fastballs. If he had any confidence at all in his slider, he'd have thrown them more and struck out batters sitting entirely on his fastball.

Pitchers with confidence in secondary pitches often use them in 2-2 and 3-2 counts, but Hader doesn't or else he'd thrown his slider more. I have no idea at this point if eventually Hader can cut it as a starter or if he ends up with a career as a relief pitcher, both roles have value in today's baseball with an increased importance of relief pitching. At some point though he's not going to keep getting away with throwing entirely just fastballs, especially to righthanded hitters.


He probably wouldn't have achieved the success he has if all he has is the big fastball. Did you ever stop and wonder how he made it through the minor league system with the success he's had if he's a 1.5 pitch pitcher? Did you ever think that maybe he doesn't throw his changeup right now because hitters are consistently way behind his fastball and throwing a changeup is absolutely doing the hitter a favor? What is every scout and every prospect ranking system doing listing him as a top prospect with his non-existent changeup and 1.5 pitches...are they all a bunch of idiots that don't know what they are doing? Or maybe you shouldn't pass such massive judgement on one outing, or even the 20+ pro innings he's pitched thusfar(in a different role then he's used to). He's young, in theory he'll learn from his failure yesterday and be better for it.

And just on a side, everyone's favorite comp is Chris Sale. In his bullpen stint his first season, Sale threw his changeup around 7% of the time that season while Hader throws his 5%. Just because he isn't throwing it doesn't mean he doesn't have one. Especially considering most scouts rate it an average mlb offering.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#57

Posted: August 08, 2017, 3:11 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 16824
Fangraphs has Hader's change as a well below average pitch. Sale's was above average the second he got to the majors. MLB Pipeline had Hader's changeup at a 45, a below average offering.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#58

Posted: August 08, 2017, 3:26 PM Post
Posts: 6102
Location: Kenosha, WI
We can't afford to have a Josh Hader in the rotation any time soon. He doesn't get deep into games and with his control he is going to throw up complete duds way to often. We can't afford to have the Josh Hader who pitched yesterday. Multiple hits, 3 walks, a hit batter, and 40 pitches while only getting 3 outs? He would destroy our bullpen. Our bullpen cannot handle that.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#59

Posted: August 08, 2017, 3:30 PM Post
Posts: 3830
Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters


He should throw it to get hitters out. But he can't because he can't throw it well enough to do so so he throws the one pitch he can get hitters out with. I get the impression that you think anytime he wants to he can just throw a quality changeup up there but he never does because he doesn't have to. In reality he's not throwing his changeup because it's just not a good pitch.

Especially considering most scouts rate it an average mlb offering


Do they say it's an average mlb offering or do they say it CAN BE an average MLB offering? Pretty big difference between the two.

What is every scout and every prospect ranking system doing listing him as a top prospect with his non-existent changeup and 1.5 pitches...are they all a bunch of idiots that don't know what they are doing


From baseball America: He has the stuff to be a dominant left-on-left situational reliever right away, and many evaluators believe that's what his long-term role in the majors will eventually be.

It almost seems like you take it personally when people suggest Hader ends up in the bullpen. I haven't seen very many scouting reports that say he is for sure a starter. Most I've seen at the very least say there are questions as to where he ends up and many say that his best role may be the pen. Regardless of minor league success he just does not have the control or the third pitch that most successful major league pitchers have. Beside, he last thing the Brewers need is a starter who pitches 4 or 5 innings every other start. Could he fix these issues? Of course. But until he does it's too hard for me to consider him a starter. With the success he's had in the bullpen I'd be fine keeping him there anyway. We need a dominant back end of the bullpen to shorten games.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?
#60

Posted: August 08, 2017, 3:46 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5166
The only way those pitches will get better is by throwing them.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next  [ 74 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bensheeps, BillMilton, Daubs, NeedMoreFans, Pugger, tdeggie, WolfPack and 28 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test