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2018 Starting Rotation

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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 25, 2017, 11:14 PM Post
Posts: 733
Location: New Berlin, WI
Devinep said:
FVBrewerFan said:
You need to go into 2018 with the mindset Nelson will not pitch. If he can, gravy. I also don't know why Hader needs to go back the pen after half a year. 30 starts at 5 innings puts him at 150, that works.


There is a good possibility that Hader-unless he improves his secondary pitches- ends up in the pen for effectiveness reasons. But 5 innings a astray isn't good for the bullpen long term.


Anyone questioning Hader's secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it. He gets swings and misses with both pitches often, especially his slider. I'll be fairly upset if he doesn't end up in the rotation to start 2018 unless Stearns goes rogue and adds 2 high end SP in the off season.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 26, 2017, 5:28 AM Post
Posts: 186
KeithStone53151 said:
Devinep said:
FVBrewerFan said:
You need to go into 2018 with the mindset Nelson will not pitch. If he can, gravy. I also don't know why Hader needs to go back the pen after half a year. 30 starts at 5 innings puts him at 150, that works.


There is a good possibility that Hader-unless he improves his secondary pitches- ends up in the pen for effectiveness reasons. But 5 innings a astray isn't good for the bullpen long term.


Anyone questioning Hader's secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it. He gets swings and misses with both pitches often, especially his slider. I'll be fairly upset if he doesn't end up in the rotation to start 2018 unless Stearns goes rogue and adds 2 high end SP in the off season.


Anyone NOT questioning headers secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it- which is easy to miss since he threw his fastball over 80% of the time. His fangraphs pitch value:
-FB-9.9
-SL-3.3
-CH-(-1.4)

He was a 1 pitch pitcher this year. Not saying he can't start (since I had him starting in the rotation in 2018) but I would be surprise if he ends up in the bullpen


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 26, 2017, 7:59 AM Post
Posts: 733
Location: New Berlin, WI
Devinep said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Devinep said:
There is a good possibility that Hader-unless he improves his secondary pitches- ends up in the pen for effectiveness reasons. But 5 innings a astray isn't good for the bullpen long term.


Anyone questioning Hader's secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it. He gets swings and misses with both pitches often, especially his slider. I'll be fairly upset if he doesn't end up in the rotation to start 2018 unless Stearns goes rogue and adds 2 high end SP in the off season.


Anyone NOT questioning headers secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it- which is easy to miss since he threw his fastball over 80% of the time. His fangraphs pitch value:
-FB-9.9
-SL-3.3
-CH-(-1.4)

He was a 1 pitch pitcher this year. Not saying he can't start (since I had him starting in the rotation in 2018) but I would be surprise if he ends up in the bullpen


Have YOU actually watched the guy pitched and watched him throw secondary stuff, or are you doing a classic "grab one advanced metric from fangraphs which tells a small sliver of the story and ignore everything else"? I'm going to lead off with the fact that he's actually been throwing his offspeed more lately than when he initially came up. I checked his changeup rate back in mid-august and posted it in a different thread, he had thrown it to that point 5% of the time. Now fangraphs has that rate up to 6.4%, which suggests since then he's thrown it 7-8% of the time minimum...probably more. I unfortunately did not see if or how much his slider rate changed but currently it's at 11.5%. Hader throws his fastball most often, especially early on, because nobody can hit it. Why fix what isn't broken? The fastball is a double plus pitch because of the delivery and deception going along with the 95-97 mph heat.

He largely sticks with the fastball obviously(as many relievers do), but his secondary stuff is very good and both pitches get swings and misses. If you watch him pitch, you'll see how effective it is. The changeup I'm sure he wants to become more consistent, but it's good enough as is to be an effective starter when coupled with his other 2 pitches. If he doesn't make it as a starter, I think it would have more to do with stamina issues than anything. I watch him pitch and hit his spots, he doesn't seem like a guy that has issues with commanding his pitches...at least not lately.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 26, 2017, 7:14 PM Post
Posts: 186
yeah I've never seen him pitch. I'll give that guy with the long Gross hair (Hager or something?) a look next time


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 30, 2017, 12:29 PM Post
Posts: 2276
Kind of surprising but there is no club option for Matt Garza in 2018 according to Adam McCalvy so I guess we don't have to worry about it anymore.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 30, 2017, 12:34 PM Post
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Posts: 6375
Outlander said:
Kind of surprising but there is no club option for Matt Garza in 2018 according to Adam McCalvy so I guess we don't have to worry about it anymore.


YES!

[smile]


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 30, 2017, 12:36 PM Post
Posts: 2916
Outlander said:
Kind of surprising but there is no club option for Matt Garza in 2018 according to Adam McCalvy so I guess we don't have to worry about it anymore.


The Angels will sign him because.... well, that is just how the Angels roll.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 30, 2017, 2:50 PM Post
Posts: 547
link to the Garza story (for those interested)....
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/ ... agent.html


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 30, 2017, 3:10 PM Post
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Posts: 4638
Brew4U said:
3and2Fastball said:
I'd really like to see the Brewers pay big money for Alex Cobb.


Cobb is a nice pitcher but since missing a full season his strikeouts dropped from in the 8's per 9 to in the 6's per 9. We would be signing him at age 30 (he's never hit 200 innings in his career) and moving forward. That'd not terribly old but it is heading to the wrong end of it. I just would hate for us to go out at sign some 30+-year-old guy and we trek down the same path we have been on when trying to fill out our rotations. It really handcuffs a lot of the moves you can make. Not completely dismissing Cobb but just something to think about when we bring up guys like him.

Cobb is a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Numbers are eerily similar. Cobb's 2017 FIP vs. Garza's career FIP are almost exactly the same, both have the same career K/9, Cobb's 2017 HR/9 is slightly higher than Garza's career HR/9, and Cobb missed almost two years with injury.

His ERA is pretty, but the peripherals say he isn't as good as his ERA, and definitely has injury risk.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: September 30, 2017, 8:32 PM Post
Posts: 733
Location: New Berlin, WI
LouisEly said:
Brew4U said:
3and2Fastball said:
I'd really like to see the Brewers pay big money for Alex Cobb.


Cobb is a nice pitcher but since missing a full season his strikeouts dropped from in the 8's per 9 to in the 6's per 9. We would be signing him at age 30 (he's never hit 200 innings in his career) and moving forward. That'd not terribly old but it is heading to the wrong end of it. I just would hate for us to go out at sign some 30+-year-old guy and we trek down the same path we have been on when trying to fill out our rotations. It really handcuffs a lot of the moves you can make. Not completely dismissing Cobb but just something to think about when we bring up guys like him.

Cobb is a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Numbers are eerily similar. Cobb's 2017 FIP vs. Garza's career FIP are almost exactly the same, both have the same career K/9, Cobb's 2017 HR/9 is slightly higher than Garza's career HR/9, and Cobb missed almost two years with injury.

His ERA is pretty, but the peripherals say he isn't as good as his ERA, and definitely has injury risk.


It's actually worse than that if his k rate is similar to Matt Garza, who was in his prime 5+ years ago and k rates are spiking since then.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: October 01, 2017, 7:55 AM Post
Posts: 307
Ya, I'd pass on Cobb. I'm done with signing mediocre SP for long term deals (Suppan, Wolf, Garza). Unless we get a TOR starter in a trade or FA, I'd rather just go with the kids on the farm. Go with Wilkerson, A. Ventura, Jungmann to begin with and then Derby, F.Peralta, Burnes, Ponce, Ortiz if they fail. They have a lot of options.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: October 01, 2017, 10:42 AM Post
Posts: 3120
ClosetBrewerFan said:
Ya, I'd pass on Cobb. I'm done with signing mediocre SP for long term deals (Suppan, Wolf, Garza). Unless we get a TOR starter in a trade or FA, I'd rather just go with the kids on the farm. Go with Wilkerson, A. Ventura, Jungmann to begin with and then Derby, F.Peralta, Burnes, Ponce, Ortiz if they fail. They have a lot of options.


Don't forget Jon Perrin!

But, yeah... no need to blow $15 million a year on a 5.00 ERA starter.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: October 01, 2017, 5:45 PM Post
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Posts: 4638
Between tonight's game and the playoff 7-inning no-hitter, I'm not sure what Wilkerson needs to do to get a chance as the #5 next year. Barring any trades it looks like Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Wilkerson, and one of Hader/Suter with the other in the bullpen. Behind them they'll have Houser, Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, and Perrin for depth at the upper levels. Jungmann is another option, but the fact that they didn't bring him up at all speaks volumes; he's out of options, so I think he's gone.

I don't see any reason to go out and spend a ton of money in free agency on a pitcher. If they can trade for one and eat some salary (such as Samardzjia, etc.) so that they don't have to give up any top prospects that's a very viable option.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: October 01, 2017, 9:35 PM Post
Posts: 2850
LouisEly said:
Between tonight's game and the playoff 7-inning no-hitter, I'm not sure what Wilkerson needs to do to get a chance as the #5 next year. Barring any trades it looks like Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Wilkerson, and one of Hader/Suter with the other in the bullpen. Behind them they'll have Houser, Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, and Perrin for depth at the upper levels. Jungmann is another option, but the fact that they didn't bring him up at all speaks volumes; he's out of options, so I think he's gone.

I don't see any reason to go out and spend a ton of money in free agency on a pitcher. If they can trade for one and eat some salary (such as Samardzjia, etc.) so that they don't have to give up any top prospects that's a very viable option.



Don't forget the joke of a lineup the Cards fielded today. Wilkerson did great, but he was only good in AA this year, not great.

I do agree that signing a pitcher isn't priority #1. However, they probably have enough money to sign a hitter and a pitcher.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: October 02, 2017, 6:45 PM Post
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Posts: 4638
Never Outhustled said:
Wilkerson did great, but he was only good in AA this year, not great.

And that's why I said #5 starter.

(And he was 3rd in the Southern League in strikeouts, and had a higher K rate than Allard and Soroka.)


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: October 02, 2017, 7:10 PM Post
Posts: 4357
Nelson and Chase were both in the top 20 in hard hit rate allowed......Davies at 62....right he t to Greinke

https://twitter.com/msimonespn/status/9 ... 5531370496


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: November 03, 2017, 6:15 AM Post

Roster Guru
Posts: 2162
is it telling that taylor jungmann wasn't outrighted to the minor leagues when carlos torres and quintin berry were, and that the brewers are considering him as a possibility for the 2018 starting rotation?

by this time last year, the brewers (in offseason transactions) had already outrighted garin cecchini, jake elmore, sean nolin and andy wilkins. by 7 november last year, the brewers also outrighted yhonathan barrios, josmil pinto and ben rowen.

i'm not suggesting that the brewers exercise wily peralta-esque patience with jungmann, but given his minor league performance in 2017 (plus based on that he made the club out of spring training before being optioned), one has to think with jimmy nelson out, jungmann is back in the mix for the 2018 starting rotation.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: November 03, 2017, 7:41 AM Post
Posts: 2276
Jungmann is on the list of potential starters but a longshot, he is also a possibility in the bullpen. As they add minor leaguers to the 40 man and sign other free agents Jungmann may be one of the guys to go but no rush right now. Maybe even a minor trade piece.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: November 03, 2017, 3:44 PM Post
Posts: 307
Jungman is out of options next year so he will either be in the rotation/bullpen or on the waiver wire.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
Posted: November 03, 2017, 3:58 PM Post
Posts: 2351
Jungman should absolutely factor in next year's opening day pitching staff - IMO he'd be at worst a good fit as the middle relief/spot starting innings eater...if he has a good spring I'm sure he could be stretched out enough to serve as the #5 as needed.


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