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2018 Starting Rotation

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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#41

Posted: August 14, 2017, 5:56 PM Post
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He can get that work as a starting pitcher next season. Some great pitchers need time and he's one of them. If we continue have him relieve we will never find that out. Next year he has to have an opportunity. If you're not going to do that then trade him and get players(s) for him.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  ERe: 2018 Starting Rotation
#42

Posted: August 14, 2017, 7:17 PM Post
Posts: 3874
So if he's not in the rotation next year then trade him? Seems a bit extreme. Unless you mean he can start games in AAA to see how he does, in which case I agree, though he might be more valuable as a big league reliever than a minor league starter.


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Offline  Re: ERe: 2018 Starting Rotation
#43

Posted: August 14, 2017, 7:31 PM Post
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paul253 said:
So if he's not in the rotation next year then trade him? Seems a bit extreme. Unless you mean he can start games in AAA to see how he does, in which case I agree, though he might be more valuable as a big league reliever than a minor league starter.


No. Start him at a major league level. He has nothing else to prove that he can get the major league hitters out. Now let him prove it over 5-7 innings consistently. He's the best talent this organization has. Give him a opportunity to use that talent to the fullest. If he fails, then move him back to the pen or trade him. The walks is something we will just have to work around as he goes through growing pains. Either he'll learn and grow, or he won't. The clock has started on him now. He might he the #1 this organization has so badly needed. Ya just never know and I'm tired of people pretending to.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#44

Posted: August 14, 2017, 8:52 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
paul253 said:
And on a side, CF is the biggest strength in our system and we'll head into ST with Broxton, Brinson, and Phillips vying for the starting role. Your desire to address CF in the offseason(which implies via trade of FA) shows that you have literally zero willingness to give any prospect a chance at the MLB level. Looking at what Brinson and Phillips are doing at AAA, how in the world can you not even consider them for a starting gig at the MLB level next season


Come on man. I said address our current weaknesses this year. Brewers centerfielders are hitting a cool .216 with a .299 OBP, which are both far and away the worst numbers of our position groups. And that includes your prized propsects Brinson and Phillips having shots. I'd say that's pretty weak spot, wouldn't you? Now does that mean I wouldn't give Brinson or Phillips a shot? Of course not. There's a reason I considered Brinson untouchable at the trade deadline. But "addressing our current weaknesses" doesn't necessarily mean benching our top prospects like you believe. It couldn't simply mean signing an adequate veteran backup who can step in when Brinson or Phillips needs a day off or when/if they are in an extended slump. Forgive me for having little faith in Keon Broxton. Accepting the reality of the situation is hardly me having "literally zero willingness to give any prospects a chance at the MLB level"

You don't think throwing him back into Colorado Springs would be bad for his development
.

No I don't. If he's down there working in becoming a better pitcher then absolutely it can help his development. For instance, he can work on throwing his changeup more often, refining his command and pitching to contact the extend his innings. The last thing you want is someone trying to figure out how to throw a third pitch while he's in the starting rotation in Milwaukee. If he needs to do it in Biloxi then maybe that's the route to go.

2014 - 14.5 A+ (only has info on 4 starts but it would most likely be closer to 15 or so based on AB, IP over other games compared to these 4)
2015 - 15.9 AA (HOU), 15.8 AA (Brewers)
2016 - 16.9 AA, 18 AAA
2017 - 17.5 AAA (first 10 starts....16.6 through first 8 starts)
*and he's still developing


As I posted earlier his walks per 9 have been getting worse for three years now. People just assume his command will get better. Why? Because Sale and Randy Johnson's did? What about the hundreds of pitchers who didn't figure it out? Are those not valid comparisons?

Look, I agree. Hader absolutely should be given a chance to be a major league starter. But we're not at the point either depth wise or team success wise where he should be just given the chance. He needs to earn it. We have 5-6 guys currently ahead of him and while their ceiling may nkt be as high at least they've earned the shot.


A veteran backup is one thing and not unreasonable, though I think having 2 of those 3 guys on the 25 man is ideal. There are enough rest days and braun injuries to get all 4 guys plenty of at bats. The other beauty of our situation is all 3 guys will head home for the season knowing that any of the 3 of them could earn the starting job next year. If that doesn't motivate you to grind like crazy in the off season, I don't know what does.

There's a reason certain guys like Lopez and Wilkerson were sent to AA and not AAA. And a reason whoever ends up in Colorado Springs is a team that got "stuck" there. It's not good for development in general. Both hitters and pitchers can develop bad habits there. I'm also not opposed to sending Hader to the minors if he doesn't look sharp in spring. I simply think he should have the inside track on a job, and get it unless he's really bad AND a veteran on a minor league contract does awesome.

I'm not exactly sure how Hader hasn't earned this shot. He wrecked AA, he did as well as can be expected in AAA, he's currently wrecking MLB level in an unfamiliar bullpen role. If you want to sign a high level free agent and have him and Woodruff fight it out for the 5th spot in the rotation, that's one thing and not unreasonable(though in reality it would be Woodruff/Hader/Davies fighting for 2 spots in that case). Giving the 5th spot to Garza, Chatwood, any pitcher that doesn't profile as a 3 or better is foolish and I can't imagine that happening. The best part about your "there's 5-6 guys ahead of him" comment, is there's a very real chance that if given the chance to start in the MLB rotation in 2018...that there would be literally nobody ahead of him in 2019. And either way, by that point we'd have a better idea if he deserves a rotation spot. We will have given him a fair shot. With someone like Garza taking his spot, maybe he comes up and makes spot starts and has to adjust on the fly to throwing with a different baseball in not colorado springs and to mlb hitters. You might still not know what you have in Hader or if he can adjust.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#45

Posted: August 14, 2017, 8:58 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
djoctagone said:
bill hAll Star said:
I'm assuming that Guerra and Suter's final options will be maintained for 2018.

suter has only burned one of his three options in 2017.

guerra, as referenced earlier, could burn his final option in 2017 if he isn't recalled soon.


I assume keeping Guerra in AAA until September callups burns his final option? If so, I can't imagine us not bringing him up before then.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#46

Posted: August 14, 2017, 9:00 PM Post
Posts: 5876
Innings factor in. Absolutely no way can Hader be a SP from wire to wire next season. Thats why I feel Wilkerson gets the nod, and maybe by June or so Hader can be added to the rotation.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#47

Posted: August 14, 2017, 9:14 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
FVBrewerFan said:
Innings factor in. Absolutely no way can Hader be a SP from wire to wire next season. Thats why I feel Wilkerson gets the nod, and maybe by June or so Hader can be added to the rotation.


This is a fair point, he will be 24 next year so I don't think they'll overly baby his arm. Since he's thrown in the 120-130 inning range from 2014-2016, I could see them letting him go to 160 or so next season even if he doesn't match that this year. Obviously that's not a full season which would get him shut down at some point. If he opened with the team, we might be able to get into September before he reached that threshold. Otherwise you could start with someone else and have him go shorter stints in the minors and bring him up in June as noted.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#48

Posted: August 14, 2017, 10:45 PM Post
Posts: 3874
Now let him prove it over 5-7 innings consistently


But he hasn't proven he can get AAA hitters out over 5-7 innings. I guess that's my issue with just handing him a spot in the 2018 rotation. I realize it's Colorado Springs but I think people are just too fast to dismiss his horrible statistics as a starting pitcher in AAA because it's Colorado Springs. If they want to let him start games in Spring Training to see if he can earn a spot in the rotation then by all means. Believe it or not I am rooting for him. I'm just a little less optimistic at this point than most becuase of how bad his command is at this point and his lack of a third pitch. I wouldn't hand him a spot in the rotation and I wouldn't make off-season moves based on the assumption that he'll be in the rotation (I.e. I wouldn't trade Garza to free a spot for Hader) but I would give him a chance in Spring Training.

he did as well as can be expected in AAA,


In 26 AAA starts he's got a 5.28 ERA with a WHIP of 1.47 and a BB/9 of 5. I think one can certainly expect better from a top prospect.

The best part about your "there's 5-6 guys ahead of him" comment, is there's a very real chance that if given the chance to start in the MLB rotation in 2018...that there would be literally nobody ahead of him in 2019


There is. But I guess I'm not as optimistic as you that he'll go from a guy who has a 5.54 ERA in AAA to the best pitcher in the organization in less than two years. I appreciate how excited you are about his ceiling but I think your expectations are a little unreasonable. Jimmy Nelson put up darn good minor league statistics and even he hasn't been a dominant major league starting pitcher. Josh Hader still has pretty serious flaws in his game. I certainly hope he works them out but I don't think it's unreasonable to make him show something as a major league starter (in spring training or maybe even a few September starts if we're out of it) before handing him a rotation spot ahead of other guys who have outperformed him. I was all for giving Tyler Thornburg a spot in the rotation a few years ago because he had previously shown success as a starter in AAA and then also came up to Milwaukee and made several good starts. If Hader does both of those, or even one of those, then perhaps I'll sing a different tune. But until then I'm sticking to my argument that he needs to earn a spot.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#49

Posted: August 22, 2017, 9:09 AM Post
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Corbin Burnes:

If he's a fit for the starting rotation next season and the earliest to bring him up is June (super 2?), would it be beneficial for the Brewers to limit his innings to begin the year and start him up lets say May 1st? This could keep his innings down and allow him to be a big piece for the Brewers beginning even next season.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#50

Posted: August 22, 2017, 10:29 AM Post
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I'd go with:

Nelson
Anderson
Davies
Woodruff
Hader (make him #5 so he can be skipped now and then to keep his innings down)

Trade Garza this offseason to a team looking for a relatively inexpensive veteran #4/5 starter.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#51

Posted: August 22, 2017, 6:00 PM Post
Posts: 200
Jimmy Nelson
Chase Anderson
Alex Cobb (3 years, 36 million)
Zach Davies
Brandon Woodruff

Burnes and Ortiz start in AAA; Burnes is the first man up. Hader gets the 8th, depending on the situation, with Knebel closing.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#52

Posted: September 01, 2017, 11:04 AM Post
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outside of a game-changing TOR, i don't think there's any need this offseason to sign big free agents. i like our depth, both starters and pen-
let's see what our guys can do. first off- assuming not back: Garza, Swarzak,W.Peralta,Cravy,Blazek.

"guaranteed" starters
Nelson
Anderson
Davies

three guys compete for remaining two spots. whoever doesn't make it is sent to bullpen- and should be great out of the pen.
Woodruff
Guerra
Hader

"guaranteed" bullpen spots
Knebel
Barnes
Suter (swingman)
one of the guys listed above

depending on whether we carry 12 or 13 pitchers, there are 3-4 spots available. let's say we carry 13- the following guys would be competing for the final four spots. in order of who i think has the best chance:
Jeffress
T-Will
Jungmann
Wang
Hughes (i would look to trade this offseason)
Webb
Barrios
Nolin
Wilkerson
Lopez
Archer/Ventura/Derby
Burnes/F.Peralta/Ortiz (hope they start the year in the minors- no need to rush)
Drake (trade or release)
Torres (trade or release)
N.Ramirez


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#53

Posted: September 01, 2017, 9:40 PM Post
Posts: 3119
My first thought is that I don't want to see the Brewers sign a free agent, and I want to see Garz dealt (maybe as part of a package with Keon Broxton).

For the rotation, that gives the Brewers: Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Suter, Woodruff, Jungmann, Guerra, Hader, and Angel Ventura

I'm sure I'm missing a name or two. But there should be NO problem after the top three of Nelson-Anderson-Davies of coming up with a #4 and #5 starter, and Suter an Woodruff have flashed dominance this season.

If there is some spending on a free agent, it's to keep Walker here for 2-3 years until Keston Hiura is ready to come up, NOT for a Garza/Lohse/Wolf/Suppan type of pitcher.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#54

Posted: September 02, 2017, 6:36 AM Post
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What's so difficult about this? Barring injury, Nelson, Davies, Anderson and Woodruff are locks. The 5th spot will go to either Hader or Guerra. If the Brewers fall back and don't contend, then they'll put Nelson or Anderson on the market at the deadline. If they do contend, they'll use their pitching depth in the system to acquire difference making talent to bolster the lineup or add a pitcher.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#55

Posted: September 02, 2017, 6:49 AM Post
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Yeah, I mostly agree with Briggs. There's really only one spot up for grabs next year. Maybe they sign a FA, maybe they give Guerra another shot, maybe Hader gets tried out as a starter, but if so you'll have to watch his innings.

If we're going to talk about Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz as second half starter possibilities next year, shouldn't we also talk about Freddy Peralta?


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#56

Posted: September 02, 2017, 7:39 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Yeah, I mostly agree with Briggs. There's really only one spot up for grabs next year. Maybe they sign a FA, maybe they give Guerra another shot, maybe Hader gets tried out as a starter, but if so you'll have to watch his innings.

If we're going to talk about Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz as second half starter possibilities next year, shouldn't we also talk about Freddy Peralta?


Bubba Derby?

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#57

Posted: September 02, 2017, 7:56 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
Yeah, I mostly agree with Briggs. There's really only one spot up for grabs next year. Maybe they sign a FA, maybe they give Guerra another shot, maybe Hader gets tried out as a starter, but if so you'll have to watch his innings.

If we're going to talk about Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz as second half starter possibilities next year, shouldn't we also talk about Freddy Peralta?


Bubba Derby?


Maybe. I was thinking more of the high upside guys. Not really sure that Derby has the stuff to be more than a back end or swingman starter. Peralta's strikeout numbers for Biloxi are eye-popping.

It goes to show though how much our system has turned into a pitching-strong farm. Guys like Derby and Wilkerson, who have starter upside, and Taylor Williams who has Corey Knebel type upside, aren't even in our top 30.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#58

Posted: September 02, 2017, 8:14 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
Yeah, I mostly agree with Briggs. There's really only one spot up for grabs next year. Maybe they sign a FA, maybe they give Guerra another shot, maybe Hader gets tried out as a starter, but if so you'll have to watch his innings.

If we're going to talk about Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz as second half starter possibilities next year, shouldn't we also talk about Freddy Peralta?


Bubba Derby?


Maybe. I was thinking more of the high upside guys. Not really sure that Derby has the stuff to be more than a back end or swingman starter. Peralta's strikeout numbers for Biloxi are eye-popping.

It goes to show though how much our system has turned into a pitching-strong farm. Guys like Derby and Wilkerson, who have starter upside, and Taylor Williams who has Corey Knebel type upside, aren't even in our top 30.


Yeah I was trying to add to the possibilities. I think Derby is lower on the totem pole than those others listed but if he goes and pitches well again to start the year in AAA he has to be a part of the discussion.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#59

Posted: September 02, 2017, 9:47 AM Post
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Man we have a lot of pitching right now. It's great. Need to position prospects to start panning out.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#60

Posted: September 02, 2017, 3:49 PM Post
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There's going to be a lot of competition for the 5th spot - Hader, Guerra, Jungmann, Wilkerson, Hauser.

Then at AAA you could have Wilkerson, Hauser, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Derby, Perrin, Ventura (if he's back).

At AA you could have Peralta, Perrin, Ponce, Yamamoto, Medeiros, Diplan, Bickford

At A+ you could have Bickford, Diplan, Supak, Z. Brown, Webb, Jankins, Owenby.

One thing's for sure - the Brewers don't need to be dipping into the free agent starting pitching pool. Plenty of depth, especially at the upper levels.


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