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2018 Starting Rotation

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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#61

Posted: September 02, 2017, 5:25 PM Post
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If anything, weirdly we could see ourselves in a situation where we're trading minor league pitching depth for position players. Clearly not where we expected to be given the fact that almost every trade conversation we've had over the past year has been who we are going to trade for that TOR starter. At this point, a trade like that doesn't really seem necessary.

There will certainly be some competition in spring training next year for those 4th/5th spots in the rotation behind Nelson/Anderson/Davies. You've already got Woodruff/Hader/Garza/Guerra/Suter to choose from, plus a whole host of minor leaguers who are going to be ready to throw their hats in the ring.

My guess is that there will be some serious consideration in the offseason over converting some minor league starters to the bullpen. Guys like Bubba Derby, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, and Taylor Williams seem bound for the pen, but I don't really see this as a problem for any of them. Brewers have the potential to have the best top to bottom bullpen in baseball next year and probably will be paying their 7/8 man bullpen less total than some teams pay for their closer. All that pitching depth comes in handy when you remember that the team has 12 or 13 pitchers on it, not just 5.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#62

Posted: September 02, 2017, 5:31 PM Post
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All that said, if an opportunity opens up where the Brewers could make a trade for a TOR guy (I'm thinking Marcus Stroman or Chris Archer types), I think they'd have to consider it.

Hader has plenty of years of control left and has shown a real affinity for his fireman role, I'd have no problem with him starting 2018 in the bullpen, especially if we've got a real ace taking his spot.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#63

Posted: September 02, 2017, 10:50 PM Post
Posts: 3119
Greenleaf1 said:
All that said, if an opportunity opens up where the Brewers could make a trade for a TOR guy (I'm thinking Marcus Stroman or Chris Archer types), I think they'd have to consider it.

Hader has plenty of years of control left and has shown a real affinity for his fireman role, I'd have no problem with him starting 2018 in the bullpen, especially if we've got a real ace taking his spot.


You have to, but if Nelson and Anderson are for real, then you have as good a 1-2 punch as any team in the league. Davies is not bad, but not quite at their level.

Woodruff and Suter are probably the top contenders for the 4-5 spots if the 40-man stays as it is.

The depth does provide a lot of options, though...


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#64

Posted: September 03, 2017, 11:57 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
Corbin Burnes:

If he's a fit for the starting rotation next season and the earliest to bring him up is June (super 2?), would it be beneficial for the Brewers to limit his innings to begin the year and start him up lets say May 1st? This could keep his innings down and allow him to be a big piece for the Brewers beginning even next season.

I think you're right -- assuming he keeps pitching well, Burnes will be up in our rotation by mid-June (as you say, avoid Super 2).

I'm guessing the rotation is Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Woodruff and Suter to start the year. Suter is a wildcard. He'll need to do okay through September.

But someone will falter in the rotation. Might be an injury or just a serious regression - but someone usually has a tough season. So Burnes is the guy they call on. I think the team will like his workhorse, attack-oriented style.

If Suter isn't in the rotation to start the year (or if someone is injured), you might see someone like Wilkerson or Jungmann get the nod.

Guerra is a wildcard. Just don't know what to expect from him. I guess I am skeptical. If he can rebound, all the better - but as I said, I'm skeptical.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#65

Posted: September 03, 2017, 2:03 PM Post
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I wouldn't be surprised if people came to the Brewers with offers for Davies, Anderson, or Nelson.

All are young, and Davies is controllable for a while. The return could be substantial, especially if packaged with Keon Broxton.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#66

Posted: September 12, 2017, 1:47 PM Post
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BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
Jimmy Nelson
Chase Anderson
Alex Cobb (3 years, 36 million)
Zach Davies
Brandon Woodruff

Burnes and Ortiz start in AAA; Burnes is the first man up. Hader gets the 8th, depending on the situation, with Knebel closing.


Agreed above, but have to sign Swarzak (and hopefully Neshak). There isn't much for bullpen guys out there.

Being under 30, I assume Cobb will make more than that (I assume elbow injury behind him). I would target to get him or Lance Lynn (to hurt Cardinals) and if we lose out at least we made the winning team pay big.

I wonder if CC could be cheapish and a one year deal. Maybe he has the magic left for us, or he falls apart and you install Burnes/Suter. Maybe he would be great out of the pen.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#67

Posted: September 12, 2017, 2:20 PM Post
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If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#68

Posted: September 12, 2017, 2:49 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.


Agreed. With Nelson out it looks like this:

Anderson
Davies
Woodruff
Hader
Wilkerson/Jungmann

Wow, baseball is strange. Even here where we disagree on everything, I doubt a few months back anyone would have predicted Anderson on the top of this list. (Or even 2nd if you want to put Davies at the top.)

Still not convinced Hader is a starter, but let's find out. Then Wilkerson and Jungmann can battle it out for the 5th spot. Even Guerra, I'm fine with having him compete for the 5th spot in March.

Darkhorse is Burnes. Who knows, maybe they decide to have him in the rotation right out of ST. If not, if he's still pitching well, we will see him sooner rather than later in 2018. Peralta, Ortiz, and others just too many factors to know if/when they join the team next season.

Finally, I fully expect Stearns to have a cheap veteran flyer or two in camp and maybe trade lower level prospect(s) for one.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#69

Posted: September 13, 2017, 7:10 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.


If the starting rotation is so good and so healthy that even if Burnes and Wilkerson are killing it AAA, they don't get any play, i would take that scenario over being one good starter short of missing the playoffs. You can always trade Anderson/Nelson following the 2018 season. I could see acquiring a great bullpen instead of a starter, but that is even a bigger crapshoot year to year - so I would rather just keep Hader in the pen.

I would say put the money that would go to a starter into a position player, but where is there a position where we can really see a more than an incremental upgrade over what we have, considering both cost and performance? 2B? Walker heads the list basically. Trade? Possible, but I don't know if there are any better 2B that are available that way either.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#70

Posted: September 13, 2017, 8:14 AM Post
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Roderick said:
Brew4U said:
If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.


If the starting rotation is so good and so healthy that even if Burnes and Wilkerson are killing it AAA, they don't get any play, i would take that scenario over being one good starter short of missing the playoffs. You can always trade Anderson/Nelson following the 2018 season. I could see acquiring a great bullpen instead of a starter, but that is even a bigger crapshoot year to year - so I would rather just keep Hader in the pen.

I would say put the money that would go to a starter into a position player, but where is there a position where we can really see a more than an incremental upgrade over what we have, considering both cost and performance? 2B? Walker heads the list basically. Trade? Possible, but I don't know if there are any better 2B that are available that way either.


We've done the 30+ year old rotations before. It hasn't worked. I want to try these young arms and let a guy like Burnes come up and bulldoze his competition like he has all the way through. Jamming them up at AAA just doesn't do it for me. Let these guys pitch. It's what we have been waiting for, for so long with this organization.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#71

Posted: September 13, 2017, 10:05 AM Post
Posts: 1225
Brew4U said:
Roderick said:
Brew4U said:
If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.


If the starting rotation is so good and so healthy that even if Burnes and Wilkerson are killing it AAA, they don't get any play, i would take that scenario over being one good starter short of missing the playoffs. You can always trade Anderson/Nelson following the 2018 season. I could see acquiring a great bullpen instead of a starter, but that is even a bigger crapshoot year to year - so I would rather just keep Hader in the pen.

I would say put the money that would go to a starter into a position player, but where is there a position where we can really see a more than an incremental upgrade over what we have, considering both cost and performance? 2B? Walker heads the list basically. Trade? Possible, but I don't know if there are any better 2B that are available that way either.


We've done the 30+ year old rotations before. It hasn't worked. I want to try these young arms and let a guy like Burnes come up and bulldoze his competition like he has all the way through. Jamming them up at AAA just doesn't do it for me. Let these guys pitch. It's what we have been waiting for, for so long with this organization.


Burnes has pitched all of half a season at the AA level and has 145 total innings for this year. Assuming everyone comes out of spring training healthy you can maybe delay his start a bit and send him to AA (better weather) for a month and then send him to AAA and have him available when someone breaks down. That way he will have the innings available in his arm to finish the year in the majors without limiting him on innings. Also helps to delay his status for cost.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#72

Posted: September 13, 2017, 10:11 AM Post
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Roderick said:

Burnes has pitched all of half a season at the AA level and has 145 total innings for this year. Assuming everyone comes out of spring training healthy you can maybe delay his start a bit and send him to AA (better weather) for a month and then send him to AAA and have him available when someone breaks down. That way he will have the innings available in his arm to finish the year in the majors without limiting him on innings. Also helps to delay his status for cost.


I'm completely okay with starting him at AA/AAA to start and allowing the likes of Suter/Jungmann etc.. take the ball for the first month of the season. But if he's rolling like he has been after the Super 2 cutoff, giddy up. Bring the guy up and let's roll.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#73

Posted: September 13, 2017, 10:11 AM Post
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All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.

That's why it's between Jungmann, Wilkerson, Guerra, or Garza and the longer they go without calling the first two up and keep trotting Guerra out for one inning, the more it seems they will die with Garza.


Last edited by JohnBriggs12 on September 13, 2017, 10:13 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#74

Posted: September 13, 2017, 10:12 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.


Can we get a source that you have for this information? How do you know what those guys are doing?

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#75

Posted: September 13, 2017, 10:17 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.


Can we get a source that you have for this information? How do you know what those guys are doing?


Guys shut it down when their season ends and go home. I don't need a source for that. Unless they were told to be ready, that's what they're doing. Not sure why the Brewers would have prime prospects throwing at this point. If their intention all along were to bring them up (which I doubt), why not just do it?


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#76

Posted: September 13, 2017, 10:18 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Brew4U said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.


Can we get a source that you have for this information? How do you know what those guys are doing?


Guys shut it down when their season ends. Unless they were told to be ready, that's what they're doing. Not sure why the Brewers would have prime prospects throwing at this point. If their intention all along were to bring them up (which I doubt), why not just do it?


Couldn't it be possible that they told a group of guys to continue working with people in the Brewers organization in case the team needs them? Why would that be so hard to believe?

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#77

Posted: September 13, 2017, 10:30 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.


Can we get a source that you have for this information? How do you know what those guys are doing?


Good point, and besides the topic is 2018 rotation. There is already another thread devoted to the rotation for the remainder of this year.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#78

Posted: September 13, 2017, 3:51 PM Post
Posts: 238
Writeup on Frangraps about Zach Davies today:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/zach-dav ... e-outlier/


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#79

Posted: September 13, 2017, 10:42 PM Post
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I had initially thought that Suter would be a leading candidate for a starting role in 2018, but the Brewers use of Suter recently has me wondering why. So I simply pulled up the numbers (in this case OPS) based on pitch count:

Hitters OPS vs Suter in 2017:

Pitches 1-15 - .494 OPS
Pitches 16-30 - .624 OPS
Pitches 31-45 - .903 OPS
Pitches 46-60 - 1.231 OPS

I guess I've noticed that teams seem to get to Suter after the first time through, but I didn't realize how dramatic it had become. The guy had a great July, but since then, he's been pretty mediocre when asked to start and go long. I wonder if this is how the team views him - as a reliever. His ability to go 2-3 innings is the most the club wants him out there - and with all the relievers in the pen, we can employ this strategy during September.

Not really sure. Just speculating. Still not a big sample size - but the use by the Brewers makes me wonder if that's how they view the guy.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Starting Rotation
#80

Posted: September 14, 2017, 6:28 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.


I'm just going to throw it out there, and I'd guess it won't be a popular opinion...but I am not opposed to trading Chase Anderson this offseason. Especially (maybe only) if we somehow acquire good MLB starting pitching in return or in another trade.

Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and would be more than content having him in the rotation next year. But I'm just not sure I believe that he's as good as he's been this year. He gives up a lot of flyballs and his xFIP is the highest of his career this year, explained by the fact his HR/FB rate is by far the lowest in his 4 MLB seasons to date. Maybe he is missing bats better, but I'd expect there's some luck involved in that as well, especially when Miller Park is your home. For comparisons sake, Junior Guerra had a very similar ERA, FIP, and xFIP in 2016 as Chase has this year with an almost identical HR/FB rate.

If Stearns can work magic to somehow capitalize on Anderson's big year and sell high while still restocking the MLB rotation for next year, count me in.

I am not Shea Vucinich


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