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Brewers Trade for Neil Walker

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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 1:55 PM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
I don't think overpaying is ever a good idea. All it does is frustrate fans and make others on the team who actually earn their paycheck want more when their time comes. If we overpay for someone how can we expect anyone else to accept fair market value? Especially if it is signing one of our own to an extension. They would look at what some outsider got an be offended they aren't being offered the same.


Veterans by definition and rule are overpaid. Anyone that is a good MLB player past their arbitration days is close to or actually overpaid.

Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager make $500k. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford (out of baseball), Andre Ethier all make in the range of $20 million/year. How is that working out?

The Astros paid Carlos Beltran $16 million to fill in as DH this year. Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey all make 15-20 times more money than Kris Bryant annually.

Arcia, Santana, Nelson, etc. will all get their payday. That's how this works. We have room under Mark's yearly budget to fill some holes. Would you rather Neil Walker play 2B and Swarzak + 2 good pen arms come to the Brewers or would you rather stick with what we have and let the ownership group buy a few more yachts?

Now, if the Brewers sign several guys to big 5 or 6 year contracts we have issues because then it will affect our ability to bring Nelson, Anderson, Arcia, Santana, etc. back.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:09 PM Post
Posts: 4000
bill hAll Star said:
Thurston Fluff said:
I don't think overpaying is ever a good idea. All it does is frustrate fans and make others on the team who actually earn their paycheck want more when their time comes. If we overpay for someone how can we expect anyone else to accept fair market value? Especially if it is signing one of our own to an extension. They would look at what some outsider got an be offended they aren't being offered the same.


Veterans by definition and rule are overpaid. Anyone that is a good MLB player past their arbitration days is close to or actually overpaid.

Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager make $500k. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford (out of baseball), Andre Ethier all make in the range of $20 million/year. How is that working out?

The Astros paid Carlos Beltran $16 million to fill in as DH this year. Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey all make 15-20 times more money than Kris Bryant annually.

Arcia, Santana, Nelson, etc. will all get their payday. That's how this works. We have room under Mark's yearly budget to fill some holes. Would you rather Neil Walker play 2B and Swarzak + 2 good pen arms come to the Brewers or would you rather stick with what we have and let the ownership group buy a few more yachts?

Now, if the Brewers sign several guys to big 5 or 6 year contracts we have issues because then it will affect our ability to bring Nelson, Anderson, Arcia, Santana, etc. back.


Just because overpaying veterans is common doesn't make it the right thing to do.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:09 PM Post
Posts: 4000
bill hAll Star said:
Thurston Fluff said:
I don't think overpaying is ever a good idea. All it does is frustrate fans and make others on the team who actually earn their paycheck want more when their time comes. If we overpay for someone how can we expect anyone else to accept fair market value? Especially if it is signing one of our own to an extension. They would look at what some outsider got an be offended they aren't being offered the same.


Veterans by definition and rule are overpaid. Anyone that is a good MLB player past their arbitration days is close to or actually overpaid.

Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager make $500k. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford (out of baseball), Andre Ethier all make in the range of $20 million/year. How is that working out?

The Astros paid Carlos Beltran $16 million to fill in as DH this year. Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey all make 15-20 times more money than Kris Bryant annually.

Arcia, Santana, Nelson, etc. will all get their payday. That's how this works. We have room under Mark's yearly budget to fill some holes. Would you rather Neil Walker play 2B and Swarzak + 2 good pen arms come to the Brewers or would you rather stick with what we have and let the ownership group buy a few more yachts?

Now, if the Brewers sign several guys to big 5 or 6 year contracts we have issues because then it will affect our ability to bring Nelson, Anderson, Arcia, Santana, etc. back.


Just because overpaying veterans is common doesn't make it the right thing to do.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:22 PM Post
Posts: 1740
bill hAll Star said:
I'd be a fan of bringing Walker back for a 1-2 year contract. 3 max. There is plenty of room to spend the next few years.

I think the issue is, depending on what Neil wants, this is his last year to cash in on a 3-5 year contract.

I'd pay a higher dollar value to make it a 2-year contract.


The guy will have made $17.2M this year. Even at a discount he is way out of our price range.

Especially with Dubon and Hiura down on the farm.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:26 PM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
Just because overpaying veterans is common doesn't make it the right thing to do.


It actually is completely the right thing to do if:

A. Mark is willing to pay $100 million or so for contending years which he seems to want to do.

B. The contracts are not prohibitive of future years of being able to keep your young players.

The Brewers have a ton of money to spend (assuming A) for the next 2 offseasons and only 3 or 4 roster spots to fill with them. Get the best player money can buy if it's a short contract.

I think you'd agree that bullpen is one of the biggest issues right now. You mean to tell me that you'd rather roll with Blazek, let Swarzak walk, Barnes, Jeffress, and all of those other options next season instead of 2 guys that are much better pitchers that would only be 1-2 year contracts and Mark has earmarked the money for 2018 and 2019 payroll?


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:30 PM Post
Posts: 292
Location: New Berlin, WI
Big markets can get away with overpaying for vets. Our margin for error is much smaller. If the dodgers make a bad signing for 25 million/year for 5 years...who cares, they still have another 225 million they can use to fill out their roster. This isn't an issue for big markets until you become the 2010 cubs and have 5+ guys signed to bad contracts that are also stinking up your mlb roster. If we make a bad signing for even 10 million for a couple years, that's a massive burden.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:34 PM Post
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I don't think you guys are understanding this.

I'm strongly assuming that Mark Attanasio has earmarked about $90-100 million (or a little bit more) per season when the Brewers are competitive. That's how it has gone in the past. It's a year-to-year thing. If we have a $60 million payroll this year that doesn't mean he'll add $40 million a few years from now on top of his $110-120 million max if we really need it.

Knowing that, the Brewers have every offensive position but maybe 2B solved or it has a young player that clearly has the position locked for next year and probably 2019. The rotation could be improved but we have plenty of depth. RP is a weakness.

The Brewers have $50-60 million tied up in the majority of their roster for each 2018 and 2019. You're telling me that if Mark Attanasio has earmarked $100 million for those rosters. You're telling me that you'd decline short-term signings of earmarked money? There is no conceivable downside to this save for the veterans being worse than potential replacements.


Last edited by bill hAll Star on August 14, 2017, 2:37 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:36 PM Post
Posts: 292
Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
Thurston Fluff said:
Just because overpaying veterans is common doesn't make it the right thing to do.


It actually is completely the right thing to do if:

A. Mark is willing to pay $100 million or so for contending years which he seems to want to do.

B. The contracts are not prohibitive of future years of being able to keep your young players.

The Brewers have a ton of money to spend (assuming A) for the next 2 offseasons and only 3 or 4 roster spots to fill with them. Get the best player money can buy if it's a short contract.

I think you'd agree that bullpen is one of the biggest issues right now. You mean to tell me that you'd rather roll with Blazek, let Swarzak walk, Barnes, Jeffress, and all of those other options next season instead of 2 guys that are much better pitchers that would only be 1-2 year contracts and Mark has earmarked the money for 2018 and 2019 payroll?


Mark A has said that savings from these low payroll years will be rolled in to future years. I also think our TV deal and revenue sharing has improved to the point that the 100-110 million might be lower than it could be in competing years at this point, but that's a different topic. We shouldn't make deals that we think might be bad deals just because we have money to burn and it won't affect future years. I'm confident Stearns will sign quality players to fair value contracts this off season to help the club, almost all of which will likely be in the bullpen.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:37 PM Post
Posts: 292
Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
I don't think you guys are understanding this.

I'm strongly assuming that Mark Attanasio has earmarked about $90-100 million (or a little bit more) per season when the Brewers are competitive. That's how it has gone in the past. It's a year-to-year thing. If we have a $60 million payroll this year that doesn't mean he'll add $40 million a few years from now if we really need it.

Knowing that, the Brewers have every offensive position but maybe 2B solved or it has a young player that clearly has the position locked for next year and probably 2019. The rotation could be improved but we have plenty of depth. RP is a weakness.

The Brewers have $50-60 million tied up in the majority of their roster for each 2018 and 2019. You're telling me that if Mark Attanasio has earmarked $100 million for those rosters. You're telling me that you'd decline short-term signings of earmarked money? There is no conceivable downside to this save for the veterans being worse than potential replacements.


Most people are simply saying don't make a bad deal just to spend all the money earmarked for this year. I don't think anyone is opposed to addressing areas of need by signing quality players to fair value contracts.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:40 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Mark A has said that savings from these low payroll years will be rolled in to future years. I also think our TV deal and revenue sharing has improved to the point that the 100-110 million might be lower than it could be in competing years at this point, but that's a different topic. We shouldn't make deals that we think might be bad deals just because we have money to burn and it won't affect future years. I'm confident Stearns will sign quality players to fair value contracts this off season to help the club, almost all of which will likely be in the bullpen.


But by the logic of the poster you're agreeing with above, these players will be overpaid. The reliever market isn't great the next few years so we're likely going to have to settle for the Swarzaks and not not the Kimbrels of the world.

I think that keeping Swarzak would help as he's one of the top names on the market. I can guarantee that if you plug in his expected production to the contract he gets (if we can hopefully get a shortened deal) it will be an "overpaid" player.

Mike Cameron was overpaid for his production in 2008 and 2009 but nobody cares because his production was much, much better than the minimum salary or fringe-MLB veteran we'd have had to have filled in his position if we decided that overpaying Mike Cameron was not worth it.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:42 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
bill hAll Star said:
I don't think you guys are understanding this.

I'm strongly assuming that Mark Attanasio has earmarked about $90-100 million (or a little bit more) per season when the Brewers are competitive. That's how it has gone in the past. It's a year-to-year thing. If we have a $60 million payroll this year that doesn't mean he'll add $40 million a few years from now if we really need it.

Knowing that, the Brewers have every offensive position but maybe 2B solved or it has a young player that clearly has the position locked for next year and probably 2019. The rotation could be improved but we have plenty of depth. RP is a weakness.

The Brewers have $50-60 million tied up in the majority of their roster for each 2018 and 2019. You're telling me that if Mark Attanasio has earmarked $100 million for those rosters. You're telling me that you'd decline short-term signings of earmarked money? There is no conceivable downside to this save for the veterans being worse than potential replacements.


Most people are simply saying don't make a bad deal just to spend all the money earmarked for this year. I don't think anyone is opposed to addressing areas of need by signing quality players to fair value contracts.


You're really just arguing semantics. Fair value for a veteran is generally overpaying them when you compare it to the production we're getting from Arcia or Shaw as compared to their pay.

I'd love to sign all fair value contracts and I know that's what Stearns is going to do. That's still going to be on the order of $5, $10, up to $15 million/year for some guys to help short-term.

I'm saying use the excess space to fill positional needs. There are 29 other teams competing for the services of a bunch of non-elite relief pitchers in the next few offseasons. They'll be overpaid but productive and very necessary.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 223
Location: Milwaukee
If Villar is bouncing back and getting closer to what he's capable of then signing a vet at 2b in the offseason bumping him to the backup spot makes zero sense. Villar has 3yrs control, is very dynamic, has 20HR power with 50SB speed, switch hitter with SS range/arm at the 2b position. That's valuable and will bring a very good return once traded after 2018. Dubon can step in for 2019 or they can sign a vet for 1yr until Hiura or Diaz are ready. Signing someone like Walker to a 2-3yr deal putting Villar on the bench just kills his return value. The 2015/2016 Villar is better than those solid vets anyway.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 14, 2017, 2:52 PM Post
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Humans Need Water said:
If Villar is bouncing back and getting closer to what he's capable of then signing a vet at 2b in the offseason bumping him to the backup spot makes zero sense. Villar has 3yrs control, is very dynamic, has 20HR power with 50SB speed, switch hitter with SS range/arm at the 2b position. That's valuable and will bring a very good return once traded after 2018. Dubon can step in for 2019 or they can sign a vet for 1yr until Hiura or Diaz are ready. Signing someone like Walker to a 2-3yr deal putting Villar on the bench just kills his return value. The 2015/2016 Villar is better than those solid vets anyway.


If that's your opinion on Villar, that's fine, it is possible to stick with him and allocate the money elsewhere. I am saying that it's time to sign some vets to fill the few remaining holes on this team. It costs essentially zero prospects to do so.

I think people are confusing the smart, homegrown approach that is necessary and I 100% support and what that approach actually provides. If vets are willing to come for 2, maybe 3 years to the Brewers, this is what the homegrown approach provides for a few years. You have some money to spend to keep your own guys or get external vets. In our case, we don't have to worry about re-signing anyone of importance for at least 2 offseasons.


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Online  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 15, 2017, 4:02 AM Post
Posts: 9885
Walker is probably going to cost around a 3 year deal for $15M a year or so. To me there's better use of our resources especially with our 2B depth on the farm. I'd rather give Villar one more shot in 2018 and use the money elsewhere.

Swarzak at maybe 2/$10M or 2/$12M is something I would be interested in, but I really have no idea what his market will be.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 15, 2017, 7:58 AM Post
Posts: 2805
adambr2 said:
Walker is probably going to cost around a 3 year deal for $15M a year or so. To me there's better use of our resources especially with our 2B depth on the farm. I'd rather give Villar one more shot in 2018 and use the money elsewhere.

Swarzak at maybe 2/$10M or 2/$12M is something I would be interested in, but I really have no idea what his market will be.


Strongly agree. The free agent market as it is will nothing special, as the game trends younger & younger. However if I was going to spend money in free agency I would spend it on pitching

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:14 AM Post
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I like using free agency for things like role players and relief pitchers. It's when we try to fill important roles through free agency that we could really get burned. That said, I think that Walker will probably be too expensive for his marginal contribution to the team for us to consider signing him beyond this year.

Even if it's only for three years, signing him to something like $17M / year could hamper the franchise. He turns 31 next month, so he's on the downward side of his career. That could be an untradeable contract in a year or two, and if we have better options at that time, that would be a lot of money to simply "eat." Therefore, even if we have "excess money," I don't think this would be the best way to use it.

I'm glad we got him for this season, but I'd let him walk at seasons' end.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:17 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Walker is probably going to cost around a 3 year deal for $15M a year or so. To me there's better use of our resources especially with our 2B depth on the farm. I'd rather give Villar one more shot in 2018 and use the money elsewhere.

Swarzak at maybe 2/$10M or 2/$12M is something I would be interested in, but I really have no idea what his market will be.


I agree with a lot of this. I've been one of the people that was vocal asking for Villar to get all of 2017 to figure it out. I still think he can, but I've seen enough of his struggles where I'm not sure of it for 2018.

I don't think Walker is "worth" that, though I continue to ask where, other than bullpen, where only so much money can be spent, would one want to spend the money? The detail about 3 years is the possible sticking point in this.

I think they'll bring back Swarzak, buy another bullpen arm (maybe 2), and do something like sign Walker.

Villar and Perez can both be super-utility guys off the bench and when there is an inevitable injury, basically any of it will be covered.

Those praying for a $55 million payroll so that they have nobody besides Braun if he's hurt to be mad at for being overpaid will be...mad...at this offseason.

It doesn't have to be Walker but they're going to spend on 2 or 3 veterans on shorter contracts.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:20 AM Post
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monty57 said:
Even if it's only for three years, signing him to something like $17M / year could hamper the franchise.


The 3rd year could be an issue if somebody this offseason gets a big deal for 3 seasons.

But I guess my question beyond that is, how will it hamper the franchise?

There may be an unlikely situation where some ace is available at the deadline but we can't absorb a $25 million/year deal for 2 seasons but otherwise (again, strongly assuming Mark will spend his usual amount) I don't really know how it will hamper the franchise.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:45 AM Post
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Walker is not going to command anything close to $15 million a year. He'll ask for around 3 years $33 million range, but will have to settle for 2 years in the $17 million ($8.5 mil per year) range with an option. Brewers could be a match at that number. Hoping Villar rebounds is foolish. If you put all your eggs in his basket and he's hitting .220 on Mothers Day again next year, then what do you do? Villar isn't solid enough defensively to be a utility option either.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Trade for Neil Walker
Posted: August 15, 2017, 9:00 AM Post
Posts: 5716
JohnBriggs12 said:
Walker is not going to command anything close to $15 million a year. He'll ask for around 3 years $33 million range, but will have to settle for 2 years in the $17 million ($8.5 mil per year) range with an option. Brewers could be a match at that number. Hoping Villar rebounds is foolish. If you put all your eggs in his basket and he's hitting .220 on Mothers Day again next year, then what do you do? Villar isn't solid enough defensively to be a utility option either.


Villar played at an All-Star level for an entire season last year. That's not a hot streak for a month in 2014, that was for an entire season just last year. He's already shown signs recently of breaking out of his funk. Will he ever be close to the player he was in 2016? No, we don't know.

But all the eggs wouldn't be in that basket, Dubon is an option. Not to mention other options they can pursue in the off-season.


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