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Anderson vs. Nelson

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Offline  Anderson vs. Nelson
#1

Posted: August 20, 2017, 9:49 PM Post
Posts: 10184
Simple enough question, which one of these two do you see as our true '#1' and the guy you would want on the mound for us in a Wild Card game? Would you be interested in a long-term deal with either or both? Jimmy is 28, Chase is 29.

When both are fully healthy, I'd give the slight edge to Chase. I'm fine going year to year with both in arbitration, but I would have no problem with a longer deal that bought out arbitration years with a year or two FA years bought out, preferably as team options, on the end.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#2

Posted: August 20, 2017, 10:01 PM Post
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I'd take Nelson.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#3

Posted: August 20, 2017, 10:20 PM Post
Posts: 615
Location: New Berlin, WI
This season, I'd take chase but barely. Over the next 3 years, nelson without question. Both could be very good, but I think nelson has the better arm. Also nelsons work ethic is well documented and tough for anyone to match. Also, nelson is a year younger


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#4

Posted: August 21, 2017, 1:00 AM Post
Posts: 301
I think I'd probably take Anderson. I was completely off on him. I didn't think he was anything more than a 4th or 5th pitcher and likely a long man who made spot starts on a good team. Then I read a couple articles in which people were talking about him, one in which Fangraphs writes 10 bold predictions that I've quoted on here before that Anderson would "finally" pitch like a #2 pitcher(something similar to that).

Obviously neither is a true ace, but Anderson was more in line with one and has 4 pitches that he can throw with good command when he's right.

I definitely wouldn't sign either to deals at this point though unless they both take really team friendly deals.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#5

Posted: August 21, 2017, 4:51 AM Post
Posts: 439
Jimmy Nelson and it’s not particularly close. I believe far more that Nelson’s BABIP is an outlier due for regression than Anderson’s HR/FB rate is not an outlier due for regression. You can’t throw out the Cincinnati start, but if you don’t define a 2.73 FIP/2.72 xFIP/23.4% K-BB that Nelson has thrown since April as “ace” quality, Im not sure what is. That’s better than Kershaw’s or Schrezer’s season line. You still control 3 more seasons of Nelson, but if they can do something like 4 years 45 million with a couple of 15 million team options tacked on, the Brewers shouldn’t pass at this point.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#6

Posted: August 21, 2017, 5:22 AM Post
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Nelson and it isn't even close. This looks like a true breakout for Nelson fully supported by peripherals. Nelson has actually been unlucky so far this year mostly driven by the one disaster outing. Anderson has a whole lot of luck in his profile, especially the low number of HRs he has given up considering he has turned into an extreme flyball pitcher this year.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#7

Posted: August 21, 2017, 8:16 AM Post
Posts: 10739
I'd take Anderson simply because he's fresher. Nelson's shown some signs of wear and tear recently. Anderson's been every bit as good as Nelson this year.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#8

Posted: August 21, 2017, 8:32 AM Post
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I still am skeptical of Chase's velocity spike mid season. His whole career he's been 91-92 then mid season he jumped to 94-96. He's much more effective that way but I don't know if that velocity holds.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#9

Posted: August 21, 2017, 8:36 AM Post
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Nelson was pretty dominant in the upper minors, so I've been hoping he could "turn the corner" at the MLB level for a while. Hopefully he's finally done that, and we can expect more years like this. For a one-game play-in, I'd lean toward Nelson, but really would just go with who would be on the right rest (i.e. I wouldn't pitch Nelson on limited rest if Anderson was fresher).

As to extensions, either of these guys could fall back. Since we already have both of them through their prime years, I don't see a reason to extend them. We would be taking a big risk in order to get some of the decline years. Because they're both in arby next year (Anderson year 2 of 4, Nelson year 1 of 3) we probably wouldn't get a significant enough discount to justify the risk. Plus, we'd be paying them based on their breakout year, which may be the best year we see out of them.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#10

Posted: August 21, 2017, 8:38 AM Post
Posts: 615
Location: New Berlin, WI
MoreTrife said:
I still am skeptical of Chase's velocity spike mid season. His whole career he's been 91-92 then mid season he jumped to 94-96. He's much more effective that way but I don't know if that velocity holds.


There were times with the Dbacks that he was working close to mid 90s as well. He credits his off season training for some of the velocity spike...which could make sense. Velocities tend to be lower early in the season pitching in colder conditions...and tick up in warmer weather.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#11

Posted: August 21, 2017, 8:44 AM Post
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Nelson left a lot of balls over the middle of the plate in his last two starts. He's allowed 19 hits in his last 10 innings. That's a concern as he's well on his way to his career high in innings. It's about who gives you the best chance in early October. A fresher Anderson likely gives them the best chance.

Chances are the Brewers won't nail down a spot until the final days anyway, so the discussion is probably moot. It could end up being Davies if it's his turn in the rotation. Davies is a cool customer, and they could do a lot worse.


Last edited by JohnBriggs12 on August 21, 2017, 8:51 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#12

Posted: August 21, 2017, 8:49 AM Post
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I'd say Nelson is the default #1 but neither is an ace or #1 pitcher. I guess long term Nelson is probably the better pitcher but I'm not interested in signing either long term. They each have 3 years of control left after this year and unless they're willing to sign under market value it just doesn't seem like a good use of funds. Jimmy has made such great improvements in BB/9 and K/9 this year it's tough to say if this is his career year or the new norm. I'd bet it's somewhere in between.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#13

Posted: August 21, 2017, 9:36 AM Post
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Ennder said:
Nelson and it isn't even close. This looks like a true breakout for Nelson fully supported by peripherals. Nelson has actually been unlucky so far this year mostly driven by the one disaster outing. Anderson has a whole lot of luck in his profile, especially the low number of HRs he has given up considering he has turned into an extreme flyball pitcher this year.

Not even close? Anderson has been the Brewers best pitcher for a year. If Chase's mph uptick is stays with him, that makes his curve and change up much more effective. I would feel more comfortable giving Nelson an extension, but I would say it's pretty close.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#14

Posted: August 21, 2017, 11:09 AM Post
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OnaBadger58 said:
Not even close? Anderson has been the Brewers best pitcher for a year. If Chase's mph uptick is stays with him, that makes his curve and change up much more effective. I would feel more comfortable giving Nelson an extension, but I would say it's pretty close.


Just depends on how you want to define close. Using batted ball breakdowns Anderson's xERA is 3.72 compared to Nelson's 3.39. Nelson looks like a clear #2 while Anderson looks more like a solid #3 type starter. Nelson has easily been the best pitcher on this team all season. Anderson has just had the best results. ERA is simply an awful stat for in judging pitchers in season.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#15

Posted: August 21, 2017, 4:01 PM Post
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Ennder said:
OnaBadger58 said:
Not even close? Anderson has been the Brewers best pitcher for a year. If Chase's mph uptick is stays with him, that makes his curve and change up much more effective. I would feel more comfortable giving Nelson an extension, but I would say it's pretty close.


Just depends on how you want to define close. Using batted ball breakdowns Anderson's xERA is 3.72 compared to Nelson's 3.39. Nelson looks like a clear #2 while Anderson looks more like a solid #3 type starter. Nelson has easily been the best pitcher on this team all season. Anderson has just had the best results. ERA is simply an awful stat for in judging pitchers in season.


Guess it depends what you mean by that. I would say ERA is a pretty poor indicator of future results, but a very good indicator of what a pitcher HAS done.

For an extreme example, if Anderson had zero Ks this year and 300 BBs but a 2.00 ERA, I would say he's having a great year. huge warning flags for next year and beyond? Absolutely. For me, it's as simple as hitters are supposed to produce runs, pitchers job is to prevent runs. So if a SP can get the job done with a bit of luck, that's fine with me.

As for Anderson vs Nelson in one game WC playoff? Well, that probably works itself out over the next month. If I had to run with someone today, I should say Anderson based on recent starts. But I would roll with Nelson, still just have a little more comfort level with him I guess.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#16

Posted: August 21, 2017, 7:39 PM Post
Posts: 2916
Tough to say and that is why you gotta trust the Brewers coaching staff & front office who have way more data in terms of every aspect of comparing the two, including and especially health information, MRI's, spin rate data, recovery data in between outings, etc all kinds of things that we fans have no clue about

Past results do not insure future predictions. Nelson has not had much sustained success prior to this season, has he? But neither has Anderson, really. In 2015/2016 their production was relatively similar, but Nelson had a much higher WHIP in 2016. In 2017 Anderson has been better. I would want Anderson pitching in a 2017 Wild Card game for sure

I'm glad we have both in 2018, 2019 & 2020, and I'm very optimistic about Woodruff as well.... future is looking brighter

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#17

Posted: August 21, 2017, 9:53 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
Guess it depends what you mean by that. I would say ERA is a pretty poor indicator of future results, but a very good indicator of what a pitcher HAS done.

For an extreme example, if Anderson had zero Ks this year and 300 BBs but a 2.00 ERA, I would say he's having a great year. huge warning flags for next year and beyond? Absolutely. For me, it's as simple as hitters are supposed to produce runs, pitchers job is to prevent runs. So if a SP can get the job done with a bit of luck, that's fine with me.

As for Anderson vs Nelson in one game WC playoff? Well, that probably works itself out over the next month. If I had to run with someone today, I should say Anderson based on recent starts. But I would roll with Nelson, still just have a little more comfort level with him I guess.


ERA is probably the 15th best stat to use when trying to describe how well a pitcher has pitched, it is simply awful. It is a team stat with a ton of noise involved. If Anderson had 0 Ks and 300 BB with a 2 ERA he would be having a terrible season with amazing beyond belief results that make no sense. He would be the worst pitcher in MLB.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#18

Posted: August 21, 2017, 11:30 PM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Nelson left a lot of balls over the middle of the plate in his last two starts. He's allowed 19 hits in his last 10 innings. That's a concern as he's well on his way to his career high in innings. It's about who gives you the best chance in early October. A fresher Anderson likely gives them the best chance.

Did you watch those two starts?

Nelson got singled to death in both games vs him serving up a bunch of hard hit balls.

The start against the Reds had a six run inning where the Reds with two outs had two softly hit grounders which found holes entirely because of the shift and an infield hit, all of which drove in runs instead of ending the inning. Against the Pirates he only allowed three earned runs and every hit he allowed was a single. Against the Reds, 9 of the 11 hits were singles. So 17 of those 19 hits were singles.

That's not to say some singles aren't hit hard and off poor pitches, but a lot of those 17 singles were also seeing eye grounders and flares which just happened to end up where defenders weren't.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#19

Posted: August 22, 2017, 1:03 AM Post
Posts: 253
Location: Madison
Not really sure what the term 'true ace' means if Jimmy Nelson's performance this year doesn't fit the bill. If the only aces are Kershaw, Sale and Scherzer, then sure, but Nelson has performed up to the level of that next tier of guys. I'm optimistic about Anderson too if he can keep his fastball up in the mid 90s, but Nelson seems more likely to stay at a high level.

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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#20

Posted: August 22, 2017, 2:03 AM Post
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Nelson has clearly been the superior pitcher this year, and while the Brewers aren't keen on long term deals for pitchers, I think Nelson has more upside, and I'd be inclined to take him for one game.

There are a lot of metrics, but I love FIP. It measures only the things a pitcher can control. Here are three numbers to look at:

2017 FIP:

Clayton Kershaw 2.92
Jimmy Nelson 3.06
Chase Anderson 3.49

Anderson's FIP is not bad, but Nelson's clearly the better performer when the guys on the field with him are removed from the equation.

Nelson's K:BB ratio is much better.

Jimmy 4.45:1
Chase 2.97:1

Give me the big guy.

There are three things America will be known for 2000 years from now when they study this civilization: the Constitution, jazz music and baseball. They're the three most beautifully designed things this culture has ever produced. Gerald Early


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