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Anderson vs. Nelson

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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#21

Posted: August 22, 2017, 2:20 AM Post
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danzig6767 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Nelson left a lot of balls over the middle of the plate in his last two starts. He's allowed 19 hits in his last 10 innings. That's a concern as he's well on his way to his career high in innings. It's about who gives you the best chance in early October. A fresher Anderson likely gives them the best chance.

Did you watch those two starts?

Nelson got singled to death in both games vs him serving up a bunch of hard hit balls.

The start against the Reds had a six run inning where the Reds with two outs had two softly hit grounders which found holes entirely because of the shift and an infield hit, all of which drove in runs instead of ending the inning. Against the Pirates he only allowed three earned runs and every hit he allowed was a single. Against the Reds, 9 of the 11 hits were singles. So 17 of those 19 hits were singles.

That's not to say some singles aren't hit hard and off poor pitches, but a lot of those 17 singles were also seeing eye grounders and flares which just happened to end up where defenders weren't.



I definitely knew Nelson had been the victim of a lot of slap singles...I hadn't realized it'd had been THAT bad recently. It just seems like not only were there a lot of 2 out hits, there were a lot of 2 strike slap singles that hitters were just dumping the other way. Good on the hitters, but Nelson was still making his pitches.

I also think we over complicate matters sometimes. There isn't this giant gulf between the two pitchers. If Anderson's uptick in velocity is legit, then I think his 4 pitch mix gives us two guys who can pitch near the top of a rotation. Watching Nelson and how he's attacked and trusted his stuff this year though makes me even more...annoyed(not really the right word for it) with Peralta. His stuff is at least as good, but he thinks he's got to pitch like a soft tosser and nibble around the edges. No reason he shouldn't be in the title of this thread based on ability.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#22

Posted: August 22, 2017, 5:27 AM Post
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The 'stache said:
Nelson has clearly been the superior pitcher this year, and while the Brewers aren't keen on long term deals for pitchers, I think Nelson has more upside, and I'd be inclined to take him for one game.

There are a lot of metrics, but I love FIP. It measures only the things a pitcher can control. Here are three numbers to look at:

2017 FIP:

Clayton Kershaw 2.92
Jimmy Nelson 3.06
Chase Anderson 3.49

Anderson's FIP is not bad, but Nelson's clearly the better performer when the guys on the field with him are removed from the equation.

Nelson's K:BB ratio is much better.

Jimmy 4.45:1
Chase 2.97:1

Give me the big guy.



When you use xFIP which is pretty much better in every way than FIP it looks bleaker.

Kershaw 2.72
Nelson 3.12
Anderson 4.48

Anderson has combined an unsustainable low BABIP with a poor FB%, a likely unsustainable low HR/FB and an unsustainable high LOB%. If Anderson continues to pitch the way he has this year he is more of a 4 ERA guy than what he has shown with his results this year. There are pitchers like this every season and almost universally they fall flat the next year, I don't expect much out of Anderson next year.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#23

Posted: August 22, 2017, 9:29 AM Post
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Ennder said:
The 'stache said:
Nelson has clearly been the superior pitcher this year, and while the Brewers aren't keen on long term deals for pitchers, I think Nelson has more upside, and I'd be inclined to take him for one game.

There are a lot of metrics, but I love FIP. It measures only the things a pitcher can control. Here are three numbers to look at:

2017 FIP:

Clayton Kershaw 2.92
Jimmy Nelson 3.06
Chase Anderson 3.49

Anderson's FIP is not bad, but Nelson's clearly the better performer when the guys on the field with him are removed from the equation.

Nelson's K:BB ratio is much better.

Jimmy 4.45:1
Chase 2.97:1

Give me the big guy.



When you use xFIP which is pretty much better in every way than FIP it looks bleaker.

Kershaw 2.72
Nelson 3.12
Anderson 4.48

Anderson has combined an unsustainable low BABIP with a poor FB%, a likely unsustainable low HR/FB and an unsustainable high LOB%. If Anderson continues to pitch the way he has this year he is more of a 4 ERA guy than what he has shown with his results this year. There are pitchers like this every season and almost universally they fall flat the next year, I don't expect much out of Anderson next year.

My only issue is that it's not like Nelson has been this good before either. His FIP in 2016 was 5.12. Is Nelson's BB/9 this year sustainable along with his K/9? Yes, this is the pitcher everyone hoped he would be, maybe I'm being a little pessimistic, but I need to see it for at least a month in 2018 to fully believe this is the Jimmy Nelson we can expect every 5th day.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#24

Posted: August 22, 2017, 9:45 AM Post
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Nelson has been consistent all year at drawing soft contact. I think he's the real deal. Anderson is a good sell high candidate this off-season.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#25

Posted: August 22, 2017, 10:38 AM Post
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OnaBadger58 said:
My only issue is that it's not like Nelson has been this good before either. His FIP in 2016 was 5.12. Is Nelson's BB/9 this year sustainable along with his K/9? Yes, this is the pitcher everyone hoped he would be, maybe I'm being a little pessimistic, but I need to see it for at least a month in 2018 to fully believe this is the Jimmy Nelson we can expect every 5th day.


It could certainly be a one year skills blip, those do happen. I'm just looking at what they have actual done this season alone. This season alone Nelson has been way better than Anderson even though Anderson has a better ERA. I hope Nelson can repeat it.

I mean Anderson has shown growth as well, if he can get more ground balls to go with this new K rate he is on to something really good. I'm not sure why he is allowing so many flyballs this year.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#26

Posted: August 22, 2017, 11:41 AM Post
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homer said:
Nelson has been consistent all year at drawing soft contact. I think he's the real deal. Anderson is a good sell high candidate this off-season.


Why sell him? I don't think you can have too many good starting pitchers.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#27

Posted: August 22, 2017, 12:03 PM Post
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Pugger said:
homer said:
Nelson has been consistent all year at drawing soft contact. I think he's the real deal. Anderson is a good sell high candidate this off-season.


Why sell him? I don't think you can have too many good starting pitchers.


Because he will probably regress next year. Randy Wolf syndrome.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#28

Posted: August 22, 2017, 12:08 PM Post
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FYI - both are arby eligible next year and both are free agents in 2021. Nelson is 28 and Anderson is 29.

And I guess I'm not advocating trading either one but I could see the case for trading Anderson if the brass thinks he's going to go backwards next year. I realize this is counter to my earlier post but I won't edit it.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#29

Posted: August 22, 2017, 12:31 PM Post
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Thing is you control both through their prime ages since they started in the bigs at later ages. If they both finish this season well, thus giving everyone confidence they're legit, then they are kind of the dream for a small market team. You'd control them until their early 30s for cheap and can trade them later rather than re-sign when the time comes. Or since they know they'll hit FA late you can lock them in very cheap now (since they'd want to bank money and not risk tommy john) and buy out a year or two extra.

And the way this season has gone I think it's pretty tough for them to justify trading one this offseason and not trying to win next year. So if you think you have two #3ish, maybe close to #2 level of starters locked in for this cheap for 3-4 years it gives a small market a great starting place to build from. Basically not having that in 2008-2012 is what held that group back. Essentially I think we'd all expect to be .500 or above next year primarily on the backs of young cost controlled players. And the team would have tons of financial flexibility to fill remaining holes to move that expectation from 84ish wins up to 90. Regardless, you're going into next year fully expecting to compete for the playoffs. I wouldn't say it's a realistic to expect to make the playoffs, but it's realistic to expect to be in the conversation until late in the season.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#30

Posted: August 22, 2017, 1:06 PM Post
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I agree with tmwiese55. We have a lot of pitching talent on the farm, but not all of them are ready. The guys who are ready are replacing the holes we had in the rotation to start this year. We should hold onto our productive guys with team control until the replacements are ready for them, and we're not quite there yet.

This should help us remain playoff hopefuls at the MLB level, and when the prospects push their way into the MLB rotation, we should still be able to trade guys like Nelson, Anderson and Davies for a good haul. That way we can continue to stock the system while being competitive at the MLB level


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#31

Posted: August 22, 2017, 1:13 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Thing is you control both through their prime ages since they started in the bigs at later ages. If they both finish this season well, thus giving everyone confidence they're legit, then they are kind of the dream for a small market team. You'd control them until their early 30s for cheap and can trade them later rather than re-sign when the time comes.


Of course you can trade them later. That wasn't the point though. If you feel someone like Anderson is going to regress from what they're doing this year, why wouldn't you sell high on him and get back more now than have him for a couple of years pitching worse and then trade him for less than you could've gotten?

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#32

Posted: August 22, 2017, 1:35 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Thing is you control both through their prime ages since they started in the bigs at later ages. If they both finish this season well, thus giving everyone confidence they're legit, then they are kind of the dream for a small market team. You'd control them until their early 30s for cheap and can trade them later rather than re-sign when the time comes.


Of course you can trade them later. That wasn't the point though. If you feel someone like Anderson is going to regress from what they're doing this year, why wouldn't you sell high on him and get back more now than have him for a couple of years pitching worse and then trade him for less than you could've gotten?


Agree, if they're expert opinion is that Anderson is a fluke then they should try to rip someone off in a trade. Like they did with the relievers last year. But to the "why wouldn't you sell" question, well because you're trying to win games next season and make the playoffs and that's the goal of the team. Not to win prospect rankings by magazines in the offseason.

I prefaced by saying that if he finishes this season well, if he does that I just don't think people are going to think he's a fluke. They're not going to bank on a 2.89 ERA but I think they'll be confident they have a solid 3.5-3.8 type guy under control until he's like 32.

To the other post about not trading until the young replacements are ready. Well as of right now you'd only have 2 spots filled by Nelson/Anderson. I like Davies and overall he is solid, but still his wins this year on the backs of huge offensive support. I like going into the year with him, but he's no lock going forward either. Even if he is, you still have two spots left to fill and with our history of pitcher development I don't see how any of us have confidence in filling that going forward. Essentially I'd rather hold onto extra guys rather than worry about a number crunch right now, when we still have 2-3 spots to fill. There's no guarantee on any of the young guys. There's plenty of opportunity for those guys, no reason for them to feel like they're blocked. The team should treat it like a numbers game, the more you have the higher your chances are on getting the 4-5 you need at the same time.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#33

Posted: August 23, 2017, 12:11 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Thing is you control both through their prime ages since they started in the bigs at later ages. If they both finish this season well, thus giving everyone confidence they're legit, then they are kind of the dream for a small market team. You'd control them until their early 30s for cheap and can trade them later rather than re-sign when the time comes.


Of course you can trade them later. That wasn't the point though. If you feel someone like Anderson is going to regress from what they're doing this year, why wouldn't you sell high on him and get back more now than have him for a couple of years pitching worse and then trade him for less than you could've gotten?


If our guys are that good at predicting the future, then we should always be able to grab guys off the scrap heap who will perform like stars. However, it's really difficult to predict that sort of thing. Anderson probably isn't an ace, but everyone knows that, and we aren't going to be able to convince a MLB GM that he is, so the thought that he has immense value now that will go away after next season probably isn't realistic. If it is, and someone offers us an unbelievable deal, then go ahead and trade him. In the likely scenario that we wouldn't get that "king's ransom," then he is probably most valuable to us as a member of our rotation in 2018, looking to trade him when some of the next prospects are ready to step in.

tmwiese55 said:
To the other post about not trading until the young replacements are ready. Well as of right now you'd only have 2 spots filled by Nelson/Anderson.


I was looking at Nelson, Anderson and Davies as the three "vets," with Woodruff and Hader as the guys who are ready to step in next year to fill out the rotation. We then have a lot of prospects who could be ready in the coming years, and as they push there way onto the MLB roster, they can allow us to trade guys like Nelson, Anderson and Davies as their "team control" starts to run out.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#34

Posted: August 23, 2017, 12:23 PM Post
Posts: 1689
Location: Madison, WI
tmwiese55 said:
To the other post about not trading until the young replacements are ready. Well as of right now you'd only have 2 spots filled by Nelson/Anderson.


I was looking at Nelson, Anderson and Davies as the three "vets," with Woodruff and Hader as the guys who are ready to step in next year to fill out the rotation. We then have a lot of prospects who could be ready in the coming years, and as they push there way onto the MLB roster, they can allow us to trade guys like Nelson, Anderson and Davies as their "team control" starts to run out.[/quote]



Yup, that makes perfect sense. Davies is definitely locked in as of now and is finishing strong but still overall hasn't been great this year and relied on the offense to bail him out.

I guess I'm just saying I'll believe it when I see it that all these guys pan out, sure hope that's the case but our history makes me pessimistic. Very good problem to have if it happens, just saying it's too early to start planning as if we have too many SPs. Scenarios similar to this could easily happen: Hader can't hack it as starter and goes BP route, one or two of the other 4 guys has TJ or just regresses/flops and you only have 2-3 reliable guys. Then we're hoping like heck guys like Ortiz and Burnes pan out to replace those guys.

Throw in that with the 10 day DL teams are going to be needing a 6th pitcher a lot as they game that system to give some extra time off. That of course along with your normal injuries that make it rare to only need 5 guys and I want to hold as many as we can.


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Online  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#35

Posted: August 23, 2017, 9:50 PM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
I really have a hard time seeing Josh Hader get a spot in the rotation with what he has shown. The results have been good, but such an utter lack of control. I just don't know if he can really be good for six innings straight and a third time through the batting order. To get the best results out of Hader I think you would be forced to pull him early(kind of like what happens with Garza). That can have a nagative effect on a weak bullpen.

Id rather find a more reliable 5th starter and let Hader step in for someone else when they go down for a month so we can see him in the rotation before giving him a full time gig.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#36

Posted: August 23, 2017, 11:45 PM Post
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Not to veer this too far off of Nelson vs. Anderson, but along with what Plush states above, some of my Hader thoughts...

Yeah plus his 2017 innings are going to make a full time 2018 starter role pretty far fetched. With some fast rough mental math, I'd imagine it hard to expect much more than about 120 IP for Hader's 2018, based on his expected 2017 IP and the old rule of not increasing by more than 25 IP per season. With that said, I absolutely want to see him start some games. If Milwaukee falls out of it in in September, I'd be happy to see him get a start or two yet this year, for at least 3 reasons.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#37

Posted: August 24, 2017, 7:53 AM Post
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AKCheesehead said:
Not to veer this too far off of Nelson vs. Anderson, but along with what Plush states above, some of my Hader thoughts...

Yeah plus his 2017 innings are going to make a full time 2018 starter role pretty far fetched. With some fast rough mental math, I'd imagine it hard to expect much more than about 120 IP for Hader's 2018, based on his expected 2017 IP and the old rule of not increasing by more than 25 IP per season. With that said, I absolutely want to see him start some games. If Milwaukee falls out of it in in September, I'd be happy to see him get a start or two yet this year, for at least 3 reasons.


I'm no expert on this, but I believe that once you reach a plateau, that is your plateau even if you don't reach it the next year. He could have maxed around 150 IP this year, so I think he could max at around 150 IP next year.

Pitchers don't pitch deep into games as much as they used to, so many starters are hitting 150 IP around this part of the season (Nelson 156.2, Davies 149.2). If he were to start next year in the rotation and pitch normal innings, he would need to be shut down around this time next year. If they make him the #5 and skip him now and then, he could make it further into the season.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#38

Posted: August 24, 2017, 8:12 AM Post
Posts: 501
Location: New Berlin, WI
MrTPlush said:
I really have a hard time seeing Josh Hader get a spot in the rotation with what he has shown. The results have been good, but such an utter lack of control. I just don't know if he can really be good for six innings straight and a third time through the batting order. To get the best results out of Hader I think you would be forced to pull him early(kind of like what happens with Garza). That can have a nagative effect on a weak bullpen.

Id rather find a more reliable 5th starter and let Hader step in for someone else when they go down for a month so we can see him in the rotation before giving him a full time gig.


According to baseball reference, in 71 PA since the all star break, Hader has struck out 25 guys, walked 9, allowed 11 hits(5 2b 0 hr) and a slash line of 186/324/271 with a 324 BABIP. A 12.6% walk rate is still high, but it's a sign of progress for sure. For comparison, Knebel is at a 13.7% BB rate on the season, Barnes is at 10%, Andrew Miller at 8%. This damages the BABIP argument considerably as 324 is pretty high and he still managed a sub 600 OPS against and 1.59 ERA over the 2nd half(it was 0.73 1st half, he was lucky 1st half without question). Also yesterday everyone watched Hader wax the 3 guys he faced in 10 pitches.

I feel like I'm the resident Josh Hader defender on this board, I'm probably one of the highest on him and that makes me a touch biased for sure. Josh struggled those first handful of appearances but has shown improvement through the second half. The statistics make that pretty clear. The only way it would make sense to me to not put Hader in the rotation to start is if we make a big time free agent signing. I can't imagine Stearns signing a fringy #4/5 like Garza and that guy getting the job over Hader.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#39

Posted: August 24, 2017, 8:32 AM Post
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KeithStone, I am also a "Hader defender." I think it would be crazy not to give the guy a shot at the rotation. The nay-sayers may be right, and he may be forced back into the pen, but at least give him a shot. This is a guy who has made hitters like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto look foolish. Very few pitchers can do that. He could be special, so let's give him that shot.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#40

Posted: August 24, 2017, 8:45 AM Post
Posts: 501
Location: New Berlin, WI
monty57 said:
KeithStone, I am also a "Hader defender." I think it would be crazy not to give the guy a shot at the rotation. The nay-sayers may be right, and he may be forced back into the pen, but at least give him a shot. This is a guy who has made hitters like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto look foolish. Very few pitchers can do that. He could be special, so let's give him that shot.


Spot on. I've never seen Votto swing at a pitch as bad as the slider he swung at when facing him. He also had RH Posey looking very uncomfortable and got a fairly weak groundout from him. I feel like signing a Garza and starting him over Hader is the equivalent to playing the prevent defense in football, prevent you from winning. A garza type would be guaranteeing failure, where as Hader at least gives you a solid chance at an above average rotation arm with a reasonable chance at a star in the rotation. At the very least, he'll learn/develop/improve in his shot in the rotation.


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