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Anderson vs. Nelson

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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#41

Posted: August 24, 2017, 9:48 AM Post
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If it is indeed a 150 IP plateau for Hader, that is great news. I'd still prefer to limit him early next season. I remember thinking how foolish the Mets were to use up the Harvey innings early in the season (was it 2013? time flies) and had to shut him down later when they really needed him for the pennant push. Hader's special and I would want him available if the Brewers were to make the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#42

Posted: August 24, 2017, 9:55 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
AKCheesehead said:
If it is indeed a 150 IP plateau for Hader, that is great news. I'd still prefer to limit him early next season. I remember thinking how foolish the Mets were to use up the Harvey innings early in the season (was it 2013? time flies) and had to shut him down later when they really needed him for the pennant push. Hader's special and I would want him available if the Brewers were to make the playoffs.


I suspect they'd let him go more than that. Also I suspect they would be most apt to skip some of his starts with off days to limit his innings early on and keep him available in September(where they could also limit his innings if needed).


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#43

Posted: August 25, 2017, 3:02 PM Post
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On topic, you go with Nelson over Anderson. He's improved on his pitchingsince the minors. Clearly works on improving his craft,...which could bold well if you extend one of these two on a guy whos stuff leaves him and has to learn a new way of getting hitters out.

Which speaking of Hader and his bb rate. It's his first go at this at this level. Look at Nelsons stats for some seasoning improvements.
I would consider the extension to Nelson and keep year to year with Chase. You have an influx of SPs to pull from in the minors coming. Chase would hopefully keep a lot of value with a trade decision after youve agreed to his arb next-'19 offseason when hed approach the 8+mil value.
Hader can have some starts to begin 18 and go from there. Putting him back in the bullpen certainly if the wildness fear or 3rd times through the order are bad. What if you could get he and Suter in to a 2-3IP twice a week bullpen work?

Pitching staffs just dont gothrough a season healthy yearly...as this year's staff has dealt with. You can say Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, and Hader as your 5 for next year, but still need 2 to pull from realistically or take a huge dive when 1 gets hurt.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#44

Posted: August 27, 2017, 6:07 AM Post
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I'll take the Bat Boy. No pitcher in the game has baffled the Dodgers like Davies this year. Two full years now in the big leagues, 29-16 and still just 24. That's not luck.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#45

Posted: August 27, 2017, 7:42 AM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
I'll take the Bat Boy. No pitcher in the game has baffled the Dodgers like Davies this year. Two full years now in the big leagues, 29-16 and still just 24. That's not luck.


His record is luck. You could provide real statistics in your argument though.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#46

Posted: August 27, 2017, 8:12 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
I'll take the Bat Boy. No pitcher in the game has baffled the Dodgers like Davies this year. Two full years now in the big leagues, 29-16 and still just 24. That's not luck.


His record is luck. You could provide real statistics in your argument though.


Davies second half has been good. Since MLB changed the rules to basically kill him since he depended on the low strike (yes technically the rules did not change, but yeah..) his first half coudl just be him adjusting. If he can replicate his 2nd half going forward, he is strong #2 pitcher.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#47

Posted: August 27, 2017, 9:49 AM Post
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His xFIP in the 2nd half is 4.23. He's pitched much better but the ERA is deceiving. Luckily for him he has Arcia playing shortstop so even if he K's fewer guys as long as he keeps inducing weak grounders he should be OK.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#48

Posted: August 27, 2017, 11:04 AM Post
Posts: 6413
Location: Kenosha, WI
endaround said:
MrTPlush said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
I'll take the Bat Boy. No pitcher in the game has baffled the Dodgers like Davies this year. Two full years now in the big leagues, 29-16 and still just 24. That's not luck.


His record is luck. You could provide real statistics in your argument though.


Davies second half has been good. Since MLB changed the rules to basically kill him since he depended on the low strike (yes technically the rules did not change, but yeah..) his first half coudl just be him adjusting. If he can replicate his 2nd half going forward, he is strong #2 pitcher.


Where did you mention his record? That is what I was talking about. Briggs is rating Zach Davies solely on record. The same guy who had a .714 winning % for his terrible first half and now his winning % has gone down in the 2nd half despite results twice as better.

Briggs continues to rate players in ways that make no sense despite us giving him evidence .


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#49

Posted: August 27, 2017, 12:25 PM Post
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homer said:
His xFIP in the 2nd half is 4.23. He's pitched much better but the ERA is deceiving. Luckily for him he has Arcia playing shortstop so even if he K's fewer guys as long as he keeps inducing weak grounders he should be OK.


That will give a xFIP- of somewhere around 95. Basically Micheal Fulmer territory.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#50

Posted: August 27, 2017, 10:28 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
Davies struggled with fastball command in the first half, he also was working on that curve that he honed in the off season. Through the season he has nailed down those pitches and this stretch is the end result. His stuff is back end but he plays up to a solid number 3 due to plus command.

And you guys really need to get out of the habit of looking at one stat as your basis for performance. His xfip is this, therefore he's been lucky. It's one tool, and you are way better off actually watching the guy pitch to determine whether he's been lucky or not.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#51

Posted: August 28, 2017, 11:43 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Davies struggled with fastball command in the first half, he also was working on that curve that he honed in the off season. Through the season he has nailed down those pitches and this stretch is the end result. His stuff is back end but he plays up to a solid number 3 due to plus command.

And you guys really need to get out of the habit of looking at one stat as your basis for performance. His xfip is this, therefore he's been lucky. It's one tool, and you are way better off actually watching the guy pitch to determine whether he's been lucky or not.


I only quoted his xFIP specifically. I also looked at contact rates - specifically soft contact. I also looked at BABIP.

Just watching him pitch is the last thing you should do to determine luck. You can't remember where every ground ball goes and you can't remember every liner right at a guy. Also, the defense behind a guy matters. Is Villar playing or is Sogard? Is Shaw playing or is Perez? That makes a difference especially for a guy that pitches to contact like Davies.

If you can remember all of that then you are a savant and should move to Las Vegas and start counting cards.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#52

Posted: August 28, 2017, 12:08 PM Post
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I would be fine with Anderson, Nelson, or Davies starting a one-game playoff. Pretty good makings of a solid rotation next year. Sprinkle in Hader and Woodruff/Burnes and I think you really have something.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#53

Posted: August 28, 2017, 12:27 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
homer said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Davies struggled with fastball command in the first half, he also was working on that curve that he honed in the off season. Through the season he has nailed down those pitches and this stretch is the end result. His stuff is back end but he plays up to a solid number 3 due to plus command.

And you guys really need to get out of the habit of looking at one stat as your basis for performance. His xfip is this, therefore he's been lucky. It's one tool, and you are way better off actually watching the guy pitch to determine whether he's been lucky or not.


I only quoted his xFIP specifically. I also looked at contact rates - specifically soft contact. I also looked at BABIP.

Just watching him pitch is the last thing you should do to determine luck. You can't remember where every ground ball goes and you can't remember every liner right at a guy. Also, the defense behind a guy matters. Is Villar playing or is Sogard? Is Shaw playing or is Perez? That makes a difference especially for a guy that pitches to contact like Davies.

If you can remember all of that then you are a savant and should move to Las Vegas and start counting cards.


Fair enough. You certainly can't remember where every ball has been hit, you can get a much better feel for whether he's hitting his spots, how good his stuff looks, what kind of pitches guys are swinging and missing at, etc. The XFIP appears to be an outlier advanced metric in this case when looking at others. FIP is low 3s, BABIP is 276, WHIP is down, strand rate is about the same, K rate is up, BB rate is about the same. The BABIP is mildly lucky, but he's also generating much less hard contact than the 1st half...so it should make sense that his BABIP go down a bit. The FIP in this case probably makes the most sense to where is ERA truly belongs. Taking a handful of advanced metrics as a whole points to low 3s(which is worse than low 2s where his 2nd half ERA is) in my opinion.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#54

Posted: August 28, 2017, 3:13 PM Post
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shanedog19 said:
I would be fine with Anderson, Nelson, or Davies starting a one-game playoff. Pretty good makings of a solid rotation next year. Sprinkle in Hader and Woodruff/Burnes and I think you really have something.


Agree. It's nice that we can debate about which of our pitchers is the best of a group that is performing well. Better that we can debate this in the context of a realistic playoff possibility. Also better that we are in this situation early in a rebuild process and not only did we not "sell the farm" to get here, but we added to the farm while building this roster, leaving us with a possible playoff roster and one of the best farms in the league.

As to the playoffs, the best scenario for a Wild Card (in my opinion) would be that Nelson would get that game on normal rest, leaving Anderson and Davies to open the playoff when we win the Wild Card play-in. Worst case scenario would be that we would need Nelson and Anderson to pitch the final two games in the season and we would get Davies in the WC and probably Garza opening the playoff series.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#55

Posted: August 28, 2017, 4:32 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
homer said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Davies struggled with fastball command in the first half, he also was working on that curve that he honed in the off season. Through the season he has nailed down those pitches and this stretch is the end result. His stuff is back end but he plays up to a solid number 3 due to plus command.

And you guys really need to get out of the habit of looking at one stat as your basis for performance. His xfip is this, therefore he's been lucky. It's one tool, and you are way better off actually watching the guy pitch to determine whether he's been lucky or not.


I only quoted his xFIP specifically. I also looked at contact rates - specifically soft contact. I also looked at BABIP.

Just watching him pitch is the last thing you should do to determine luck. You can't remember where every ground ball goes and you can't remember every liner right at a guy. Also, the defense behind a guy matters. Is Villar playing or is Sogard? Is Shaw playing or is Perez? That makes a difference especially for a guy that pitches to contact like Davies.

If you can remember all of that then you are a savant and should move to Las Vegas and start counting cards.


Fair enough. You certainly can't remember where every ball has been hit, you can get a much better feel for whether he's hitting his spots, how good his stuff looks, what kind of pitches guys are swinging and missing at, etc. The XFIP appears to be an outlier advanced metric in this case when looking at others. FIP is low 3s, BABIP is 276, WHIP is down, strand rate is about the same, K rate is up, BB rate is about the same. The BABIP is mildly lucky, but he's also generating much less hard contact than the 1st half...so it should make sense that his BABIP go down a bit. The FIP in this case probably makes the most sense to where is ERA truly belongs. Taking a handful of advanced metrics as a whole points to low 3s(which is worse than low 2s where his 2nd half ERA is) in my opinion.


Agreed. It's not a good idea to look only at a stat or stats or just use the eye test. Need both (e.g. you can't tell arm slot from a stat).

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#56

Posted: August 28, 2017, 5:01 PM Post
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My gut tells me, for a one game playoff, Anderson is the least likely to blow up. I really don't trust any of them to go out there and win any game.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#57

Posted: August 28, 2017, 5:12 PM Post
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My gut tells me Nelson gives you the best chance......strikes out the most and isn't walking many guys now.

He has the best stuff


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#58

Posted: August 28, 2017, 6:14 PM Post
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Yeah I have the opposite gut feeling too. I think Anderson would just wilt in the big game but Nelson has the mentality for it. He's the guy I would want if we snuck into the wild card game.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#59

Posted: August 28, 2017, 6:32 PM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
A little irrelevent talking about wild card implications for a division winner, but Jimmy Nelson would no doubt be the man for it. It is a show up or go home game. Jimmy Nelson gives you the highest ceiling in any given game and that is what you go for even i he has more "choke" risk. Can't play it safe in a all o nothing game.


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Offline  Re: Anderson vs. Nelson
#60

Posted: August 28, 2017, 7:42 PM Post
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Bring back Dave Bush!

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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