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How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?

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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#21

Posted: September 07, 2017, 2:10 PM Post
Posts: 2351
Post ASB Brewer offensive stat MLB rankings:

Last in runs
Last in hits
Last in total bases
Last in RBI
2nd worst OBP
3rd worst OPS
Most Ks
6th fewest walks
2nd worst total extra base hits

some of these are counting stats so comparing them to teams with more/fewer games played is tricky - but in general that's horrific.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#22

Posted: September 07, 2017, 3:23 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
stoutdude04 said:
shanedog19 said:
Thames is having a statistically worse season than Carter last season. I would look to dump him in the offseason and look to upgrade at the position or maybe consider Aguilar there.


Is he though?


April is the only thing keeping Thames from being worse than Carter last year.

Carter - .222/.321/.499
Thames from May-now - .207/.316/.429


Just think how bad Carter's numbers would be if you took his best month away from him.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#23

Posted: September 07, 2017, 3:28 PM Post
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AKCheesehead said:
Just think how bad Carter's numbers would be if you took his best month away from him.


Still better than Thames.

.217/.318/.486

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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#24

Posted: September 07, 2017, 6:51 PM Post
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Looking towards 2018 best guesses for upgrades are 1b, 2b and CF.
CF more than likely Brinson/Phillips. I dont think Thames/Aguilar are good enough for 1b. Thats where a trade or Hosmer might work. I think you give Villar one more year.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#25

Posted: September 07, 2017, 7:36 PM Post
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trwi7 that is surprising, and telling. I guess I remembered Carter starting 2016 hotter than it actually was and figured it would hurt him more. I'd imagine the front office is going to be thinking long and hard about what to do with the situation.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#26

Posted: September 07, 2017, 8:22 PM Post
Posts: 2084
trwi7 said:
stoutdude04 said:
shanedog19 said:
Thames is having a statistically worse season than Carter last season. I would look to dump him in the offseason and look to upgrade at the position or maybe consider Aguilar there.


Is he though?


April is the only thing keeping Thames from being worse than Carter last year.

Carter - .222/.321/.499
Thames from May-now - .207/.316/.429


I figured that would be true, but you can't take away a month's worth of stats when comparing the two. Now, if you think that his true line is more in line with may til now...id agree with you, but I don't think his line this year is worse than Carter's last year...yet.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#27

Posted: September 07, 2017, 9:10 PM Post
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stoutdude04 said:
I figured that would be true, but you can't take away a month's worth of stats when comparing the two. Now, if you think that his true line is more in line with may til now...id agree with you, but I don't think his line this year is worse than Carter's last year...yet.


I took away Thames' best month and then took away Carter's best month (conveniently also in April) and Carter still out-produced him. I guess what I'm saying is, what's the real Thames? The 103 plate appearances in April where he's Babe Ruth or the 1,000 over the rest of his career where he's below replacement level? Since he's 31, I doubt he's getting better than what he is now, so he's probably the replacement level or below guy.

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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#28

Posted: September 07, 2017, 10:07 PM Post
Posts: 2197
Location: Milwaukee, WI
newrivervalley said:
I'd go Arcia, Phillips, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Pina, Thames, Villar

I'd go Arcia, Walker, Santana, Shaw, Braun, Phillips, Pina, Aguilar
Or
Phillips, Santana, Shaw, Walker, Braun, Arcia, Aguilar, Pina

I also agree with picking a lineup and running with it for a little bit. I feel Counsell tinkers with it daily.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#29

Posted: September 08, 2017, 12:51 AM Post
Posts: 3642
It's just been brutal to see after the way the O went til the ASB. Counsell hasnt put together regular lineups and Braun has killed consistency with his poor bat this half.
Walker, Braun, Santana, Shaw, Arcia, 1b, Pina, Broxton. Set it and forget it.

Having the L/R bats this season and implementing the every other order has meant constant change of lineups putting a guy 2slots or more ahead where they should bat


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#30

Posted: September 08, 2017, 1:12 AM Post
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One thing that has hampered the offense is a lack of a star player in the lineup. Back in the Prince/Braun days, when Braun was still Braun, those two were so good that they generally kept us out of any prolonged slumps like what we're seeing right now.

We just don't have that anymore, anywhere. Let's be honest about Braun -- he isn't the star he once was. Shaw was the closest to it this year, and he's still a very nice hitter, but predictably there's been somewhat of a regression in the second half.

We have no great hitters in our lineup, and 3 good ones -- Braun, Shaw, and Santana. Literally everyone else in our lineup is either a marginal platoon player, or a regular because of defensive skills, like Arcia.

They really need guys like Hiura and Lutz to hit as well as advertised and advance quickly. Our farm was supposed to be loaded with potentially great hitters, but results this year, in particular at High A Carolina were very disappointing as far as that goes.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#31

Posted: September 08, 2017, 10:51 AM Post
Posts: 665
The team has one bonafide superstar and that is Braun who isn't playing like one anymore. Stearns didn't go out and get a superstar slugger who would command $20/year. He signed Thames and traded for Shaw along with minor leaguers. Thames was a superstar for a couple of months. He signed Walker.

Shaw is an everyday third baseman hitting well but has slowed down since the AS Game and part of that is due to getting hit in the neck and fouling pitches off his foot twice. He is banged up and instead of complaining and going on the DL he took a day off and was right back out there. Aguilar has hit well. Pina has hit well. Everyone else has hit well at times.

Milwaukee is a small market team with good players and one star making the big bucks and one under achieving pitcher making the big bucks. The latter should be gone after this year. The other will probably retire a Brewer because no other team will pay him the big contract.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#32

Posted: September 08, 2017, 3:10 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
As much as I've harped in this thread and others about shuffling the lineup like crazy, this is one of few times I generally agree with Counsel's lineup. The only weird thing is Thames leading off, and it might be in an effort to get in Lackey's head early and get him off his game. Lackey's childishness from earlier this season in regards to Thames is well documented.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#33

Posted: September 08, 2017, 3:38 PM Post
Posts: 1756
My concern isn't the major league club, it's that our hitting in the minors has been much of the same. Other than Brinson's ranking and Hiura, I'm not seeing a single hitter that I'm seeing as an upgrade over our current group.

Much has been made of the prospects acquired but most are either not panning out and certainly we have no Braun/Fielder and I'm not thinking we have a Hart/Weeks either.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#34

Posted: September 08, 2017, 3:46 PM Post
Posts: 1756
adambr2 said:
One thing that has hampered the offense is a lack of a star player in the lineup. Back in the Prince/Braun days, when Braun was still Braun, those two were so good that they generally kept us out of any prolonged slumps like what we're seeing right now.

We just don't have that anymore, anywhere. Let's be honest about Braun -- he isn't the star he once was. Shaw was the closest to it this year, and he's still a very nice hitter, but predictably there's been somewhat of a regression in the second half.

We have no great hitters in our lineup, and 3 good ones -- Braun, Shaw, and Santana. Literally everyone else in our lineup is either a marginal platoon player, or a regular because of defensive skills, like Arcia.

They really need guys like Hiura and Lutz to hit as well as advertised and advance quickly. Our farm was supposed to be loaded with potentially great hitters, but results this year, in particular at High A Carolina were very disappointing as far as that goes.


Yup. This is the real problem; the hitting prospects we picked up in all those trades are duds so far.

The scary part isn't Thames cooling off, we all knew he wasn't very good to be being with. Shaw has exceeded all possible projections. He is a good player but he isn't Mike Schmitt like he was in the first half. He had a bad 2nd half last year. He looks like a bowling pin so I'm wondering maybe it's a conditioning issue?

As for the minors, Diaz and Ray were supposed to be megastars and that isn't happening.

Hiura looks good so far as has Lutz.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#35

Posted: September 08, 2017, 3:57 PM Post
Posts: 718
Location: New Berlin, WI
Boomer5 said:
My concern isn't the major league club, it's that our hitting in the minors has been much of the same. Other than Brinson's ranking and Hiura, I'm not seeing a single hitter that I'm seeing as an upgrade over our current group.

Much has been made of the prospects acquired but most are either not panning out and certainly we have no Braun/Fielder and I'm not thinking we have a Hart/Weeks either.


Many of our high end prospects are in their teens or very very early twenties. Patience.....


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#36

Posted: September 09, 2017, 5:19 AM Post
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Outfield should be Santana in left, Phillips in center, and Brinson in right. Santana is God awful, defensively, but his impact can be minimized, somewhat, in left. Put Braun at first base. He has to run less, no walls to run into, or nearly as many balls to dive for. As long as he can avoid collisions, or getting stepped on by base runners, it should help him stay healthier, which means his .300 bat is in the lineup more often. He needs to be third in the batting order every day.

Trade Perez and Thames, and pray we get something in return. There's a reason why Thames couldn't make it in the Majors the first time, and now that he's been back, pitchers have him figured out. He's driven in a whopping 54 runs in 489 PAs, and 28 of those came from his stepping on home plate after a home run. That means he's driven in 26 ducks on the pond otherwise. That's terrible. His defense is an abomination. Overall, he's a 0.8 WAR player, the same an oft injured Ryan Braun has put up (before last night) in 152 fewer PAs. Since May 1st, he's hit .207 with a .745 OBP. The OBP is only respectable because of the 48 walks he's drawn over that time (against 123 Ks). In the last month, though, he's fallen off a cliff. August 6th to September 6th, he's hitting .181 with a .263 OBP, and a .417 SLG.

There are three things America will be known for 2000 years from now when they study this civilization: the Constitution, jazz music and baseball. They're the three most beautifully designed things this culture has ever produced. Gerald Early


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#37

Posted: September 09, 2017, 6:32 AM Post
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I agree 1b needs an upgrade


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#38

Posted: September 09, 2017, 9:01 AM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
homer said:
Don't have time to look but I think they are seeing a lot of pitches. Just not getting a walk or a hit as an end result.


Also don't have time to look, but curious what their OBP is with 2 strikes. As you said, I think for the most part they seem to see enough pitches. But then chase once they have 2 strikes. More walks are a cure to so many problems.



8th in all of baseball in pitches per plate appearance:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leag ... ting.shtml

1st in the NL

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leag ... ting.shtml

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#39

Posted: September 11, 2017, 8:43 PM Post
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The 'stache said:
Outfield should be Santana in left, Phillips in center, and Brinson in right. Santana is God awful, defensively, but his impact can be minimized, somewhat, in left. Put Braun at first base. He has to run less, no walls to run into, or nearly as many balls to dive for. As long as he can avoid collisions, or getting stepped on by base runners, it should help him stay healthier, which means his .300 bat is in the lineup more often. He needs to be third in the batting order every day.

Trade Perez and Thames, and pray we get something in return. There's a reason why Thames couldn't make it in the Majors the first time, and now that he's been back, pitchers have him figured out. He's driven in a whopping 54 runs in 489 PAs, and 28 of those came from his stepping on home plate after a home run. That means he's driven in 26 ducks on the pond otherwise. That's terrible. His defense is an abomination. Overall, he's a 0.8 WAR player, the same an oft injured Ryan Braun has put up (before last night) in 152 fewer PAs. Since May 1st, he's hit .207 with a .745 OBP. The OBP is only respectable because of the 48 walks he's drawn over that time (against 123 Ks). In the last month, though, he's fallen off a cliff. August 6th to September 6th, he's hitting .181 with a .263 OBP, and a .417 SLG.


If the NL had the DH you could rotate Braun, Thames, and Aguilar at 1B and DH that would be ideal with the current roster and then just play the younger players in the OF.

Looking at FA this off season the cheapest options to potentially upgrade 1B would be Frazier and I am not sure that is really an upgrade. The best upgrade is probably just platooning Thames and Braun at 1B and seeing what you can get for Aguillar in the off season. Braun really does need to move to 1B if the NL is not going to have the DH next year. Braun is just not an OF anymore or at least not an everyday one.

Thames is a Stearns guy and I don't see him trading Thames this coming off season. Aguillar though could be moved but I am not sure what the Brewers could get for him in a trade probably not all that much maybe someone in the low minors but that is about it.

If the NL had the DH I would go after Moustakas and have him play 3B and move Shaw to 1B and have Braun and Thames platoon at DH. Which then you could move Santana to LF and have an OF of Brinson, Phillips, and Broxton. That is a rather fast OF other than Santana in LF defensively and this would be a rather big upgrade for the Brewers both in the OF and in the IF in terms of defense.

I think you could possibly get Moustakas at about $15-18m annually for 5-6 years which the last three years is more than likely dead money so you would have to be confident in the Brewers competing in the next 1-3 years as the final 2-3 years on that contract are probably going to be brutal.


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Offline  Re: How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
#40

Posted: September 12, 2017, 8:49 AM Post
Posts: 1806
The 'stache said:
Outfield should be Santana in left, Phillips in center, and Brinson in right. Santana is God awful, defensively, but his impact can be minimized, somewhat, in left. Put Braun at first base. He has to run less, no walls to run into, or nearly as many balls to dive for. As long as he can avoid collisions, or getting stepped on by base runners, it should help him stay healthier, which means his .300 bat is in the lineup more often. He needs to be third in the batting order every day.

Trade Perez and Thames, and pray we get something in return. There's a reason why Thames couldn't make it in the Majors the first time, and now that he's been back, pitchers have him figured out. He's driven in a whopping 54 runs in 489 PAs, and 28 of those came from his stepping on home plate after a home run. That means he's driven in 26 ducks on the pond otherwise. That's terrible. His defense is an abomination. Overall, he's a 0.8 WAR player, the same an oft injured Ryan Braun has put up (before last night) in 152 fewer PAs. Since May 1st, he's hit .207 with a .745 OBP. The OBP is only respectable because of the 48 walks he's drawn over that time (against 123 Ks). In the last month, though, he's fallen off a cliff. August 6th to September 6th, he's hitting .181 with a .263 OBP, and a .417 SLG.

I think this is really good reasoning, though I don't agree with all of the bottom lines. I've been pushing for Braun at 1b for years, mainly as you say because of the OF talent we have coming up. If we're stuck with Braun, make his defensive life as low-impact as possible. Perez has warts, but his diversity makes him very useful, so I don't see pushing to trade him.

However, I think there's a deeper question that we have to answer before we decide on a strategy. Who are these guys, really? We're talking about the second half as if the first half didn't happen. Everything happened. The thesis that pitchers figured out Thames after April is probably right, but I'm not sure it's right; I keep hearing about nagging injuries with him. Maybe in other cases some real, permanent change happened between the halves; maybe for example Braun is just toast.
Really, though, you have to look at the aggregate information. What guys did in the first half is relevant. What they've done earlier in their careers is relevant.

Based on all the information we have, I'm pretty comfortable rolling with players already on the roster. c Pina and pick a second guy from among what we have, 1b Braun or Aguilar, 2b ????, could be Villar and/or Walker and/or Dubon, but that's the shakiest position, 3b Shaw, ss Arcia, of rotation of Santana, Brinson, Phillips, Broxton in a reduced role, with Perez continuing as the super-utility guy. In the offseason I'd be looking for a Shaw-like undervalued everyday 2b (please don't mention the G word, I said "everyday") and an OF upgrade over Broxton.


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