LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next  [ 141 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Ryan Braun

Author Message
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 12:24 PM Post
Posts: 1689
Location: Madison, WI
You wouldn't be. He'd also be playing 1-2 games a week for Braun when healthy and 35 games when Braun is on the DL. Plus 15-20 games for Santana and an occasional just for the heck of it in center vs righties for Phillips. Mid game swaps with Phillips when a lefty reliever comes in. Defensive replacements for Braun/Santana. I'd be surprised if he doesn't' get over 400 ABs assuming he holds his own and stays healthy himself.

They could even start the year in more of a 50/50 platoon in CF. Of course Brinson gets all vs lefties but then enough games vs righties to sort of even out. Then it's the strong survive from there, who performs better.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 12:48 PM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
KeithStone53151 said:
I'd agree with the idea of keeping Braun at 120-130 starts per season and make sure he's fresh and not playing hurt. If he's dealing with a nagging issue, the 10 day DL should be used early.


Ryan Braun had 99 starts last season and he played a huge chunk of that injured. Your plan would have had him at like 60 games started.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 12:58 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5835
MrTPlush said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I'd agree with the idea of keeping Braun at 120-130 starts per season and make sure he's fresh and not playing hurt. If he's dealing with a nagging issue, the 10 day DL should be used early.


Ryan Braun had 99 starts last season and he played a huge chunk of that injured. Your plan would have had him at like 60 games started.


And the three seasons before that he played 135, 140, and 135 games. I think KeithStone's more on track than your rhetoric. Heck, even the fact that you won't give him his 104 games that he started because for some reason you won't count the DH makes me giggle. Because those games don't count... [laughing]

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 1:51 PM Post
Posts: 496
Location: New Berlin, WI
MrTPlush said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I'd agree with the idea of keeping Braun at 120-130 starts per season and make sure he's fresh and not playing hurt. If he's dealing with a nagging issue, the 10 day DL should be used early.


Ryan Braun had 99 starts last season and he played a huge chunk of that injured. Your plan would have had him at like 60 games started.


I disagree, he missed a large chunk of time recovering from a significant injury. If it's just minor stuff(one or two 10 day stints and maintenance days), 120-130 makes sense. That completely changes if he needs to miss most of 2 months like this year, I'll hope that doesn't happen but we'll be better prepared this season if it does.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:04 PM Post
Posts: 4012
At this point I view a health productive Braun as a luxury more than a necessity. It would be great if he is healthy and productive but we have enough outfield depth that another season like this one wouldn't derail the entire campaign.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:05 PM Post
Posts: 10109
Start Brinson vs. all lefties and an occasional start against a RHP when Braun is hurt? Seems like a waste of your top prospect to me. Especially when if he can't stay healthy or isn't productive in 2018 his value could drop dramatically.

It's an option. But if you can either do that or roll with Phillips in CF and Broxton as a filler and land a frontline starter for Brinson in a year where you definitely need one with Nelson out? Seems like a no-brainer to me.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:07 PM Post
Posts: 496
Location: New Berlin, WI
adambr2 said:
Start Brinson vs. all lefties and an occasional start against a RHP when Braun is hurt? Seems like a waste of your top prospect to me. Especially when if he can't stay healthy or isn't productive in 2018 his value could drop dramatically.

It's an option. But if you can either do that or roll with Phillips in CF and Broxton as a filler and land a frontline starter for Brinson in a year where you definitely need one with Nelson out? Seems like a no-brainer to me.


A frontline starter is one thing, Gray is another. If a true impact starter becomes available, I'm sure Brinson won't be considered off-limits.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:14 PM Post
Posts: 214
adambr2 said:
Start Brinson vs. all lefties and an occasional start against a RHP when Braun is hurt? Seems like a waste of your top prospect to me.
.


And that's why you make sure he gets to play more than that, you're the only one who has proposed that low a number of starts. Can easily get him 110-120 starts, maybe more. Doesn't seem like a waste to me.

I'd prefer to trade prospects further from the majors for pitching. If we're trading for someone who can help us now (As in 2018 and 2019), I'd rather not trade away someone who can also help us now.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:26 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 6320
In all honesty, Brinson is the guy I am dangling in a future trade.. He may never be more valuable, and hopefully other teams will ignore his injury history. He just seems like a guy who is never going to give us 140 games a season.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:27 PM Post
Posts: 10109
Lathund said:
adambr2 said:
Start Brinson vs. all lefties and an occasional start against a RHP when Braun is hurt? Seems like a waste of your top prospect to me.
.


And that's why you make sure he gets to play more than that, you're the only one who has proposed that low a number of starts. Can easily get him 110-120 starts, maybe more. Doesn't seem like a waste to me.

I'd prefer to trade prospects further from the majors for pitching. If we're trading for someone who can help us now (As in 2018 and 2019), I'd rather not trade away someone who can also help us now.


So you'd rather have 110-120 starts out of Brinson (many of which won't even be in CF), than a starter the caliber of Nelson or Gray when we already have Phillips?

I get it, 6 years of Brinson value is nothing to sneeze at as far as value if he becomes who we hope. But I would bet very heavily that my plan is far more likely to see us in the playoffs in 2018.

It's also risk management. Just because Brinson is close to the majors doesn't eliminate the possibility that he'll flame out especially with his injuries. Whereas Phillips has already been successful vs. MLB pitching, albeit in limited time.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:27 PM Post
Posts: 1689
Location: Madison, WI
KeithStone53151 said:
adambr2 said:
Start Brinson vs. all lefties and an occasional start against a RHP when Braun is hurt? Seems like a waste of your top prospect to me. Especially when if he can't stay healthy or isn't productive in 2018 his value could drop dramatically.

It's an option. But if you can either do that or roll with Phillips in CF and Broxton as a filler and land a frontline starter for Brinson in a year where you definitely need one with Nelson out? Seems like a no-brainer to me.


A frontline starter is one thing, Gray is another. If a true impact starter becomes available, I'm sure Brinson won't be considered off-limits.


Yea I'd agree with that take, if a trade is there for a legit topline pitcher and you need him to do it, so be it. Otherwise I just think you're downplaying how much he'd be playing. It wouldn't me occasional days for Braun, they have him on a pretty strict forced off days schedule even when he's healthy. If everyone managed to stay healthy he'd probably play roughly 4/7 of games, at least 50%. That's not insignificant PT and it's ignoring that it's inevitable people go on the DL. If we learned anything this year it's that depth is valuable, I wouldn't just dismiss it and then have to rely on Perez or worse out there for 50 games a year. And having both him and Phillips is kind of a numbers game protection, you basically have no idea if either is going to make it big time, but if you have both it sure increases your chances on at least one making it.

ETA: Also, that possible lower PT you're worried about would be for 1 year. They prove yourself next year and then we'd have this problem to fix the year after. For now, go in with 4 guys and they'll get plenty of PT. Figure it out the year after if needed, that would be a good problem to have.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:39 PM Post
Posts: 214
adambr2 said:
Lathund said:
adambr2 said:
Start Brinson vs. all lefties and an occasional start against a RHP when Braun is hurt? Seems like a waste of your top prospect to me.
.


And that's why you make sure he gets to play more than that, you're the only one who has proposed that low a number of starts. Can easily get him 110-120 starts, maybe more. Doesn't seem like a waste to me.

I'd prefer to trade prospects further from the majors for pitching. If we're trading for someone who can help us now (As in 2018 and 2019), I'd rather not trade away someone who can also help us now.


So you'd rather have 110-120 starts out of Brinson (many of which won't even be in CF), than a starter the caliber of Nelson or Gray when we already have Phillips?

I get it, 6 years of Brinson value is nothing to sneeze at as far as value if he becomes who we hope. But I would bet very heavily that my plan is far more likely to see us in the playoffs in 2018.

It's also risk management. Just because Brinson is close to the majors doesn't eliminate the possibility that he'll flame out especially with his injuries. Whereas Phillips has already been successful vs. MLB pitching, albeit in limited time.


But it's not a matter of Brinson or a starter. It's a matter of Brinson + Ortiz/Burnes and likely more for a starter. And Brinson isn't the only trade chip we have, so it could be both Brinson and a starter for all we know. For 2018 you're probably right. For 2019, 2020, 2021? That's a different story. If we're talking injuries, you also have to factor in that we won't have Braun, Phillips and Santana playing every game. Far from it; both Santana and Braun have a history of injuries. That means .299 OBP Keon Broxton getting signficant playing time. Hernan Perez and Eric Thames in the OF. Whoever the 2018 versions of Nick Franklin or Kirk Nieuwenhuis are.

I'm not sure we get much further here. It's clear we value Brinson very differently, and seemingly place different emphasis on depth. Time will tell how it pans out.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:42 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5835
Keon Broxton's career slash line vs LHP: .251/.364/.465/.829

I think we could live with that against lefties. If we moved Brinson we could add another OF as well that maybe fits getting on base a bit more or that gives you a good at-bat later in games. Not sure who else is out there but that could be a possibility.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 2:49 PM Post
Posts: 231
Location: Milwaukee
adambr2 said:
Well, I would say the opposite has happened.

I will be blunt in my opinion here, but I do have a right to this opinion: Braun is overrated. Really overrated.

He's wrapping up a season hitting under .270, mediocre power with 17 HR, and a 1.5 fWAR, half a win less than Manny Pina. Yet we act like he is still one of the best in the game. C'mon now.

He's ok. He has enough decent stretches where his contract shouldn't be a disaster. But you stack him up against the best hitters in the game, Altuve, Blackmon,
Trout, etc. etc, no, he can't hold their respective jocks. Not anymore.


Trout is 8yrs younger than Braun and Altuve is 6yrs. Nice comparison using guys entering their prime vs a 33yr old.

At least Blackmon is 30. But he slashed 276/337/784 on the road this year (look up what he hit at Coors - fun stuff). Blackmon's slashed 264/312/740 over his career away from Coors while slashing 346/406/972 at Coors. Enough said.

On August 17 this year, Braun was slashing 295/368/912 with 10% BB rate, 19% K rate, 134 wRC+ while having the highest hard contact rate of his career. That slash line is right in line with his career numbers, which are pretty evenly split between home/away too, unlike your boy Blackmon and his jock. Braun slumped the final 2wks of August hitting 6-42 with 2 doubles and 0HR. Remove that 2wk stretch from the season and he slashed 284/358/888. Yeah, these numbers SCREAM "really overrated". Then factor in his wrist injury on top of all this.

He's the best bat on the team and will be back to his 560 PAs next year performing where he did for 90% of this year. And mediocre 17HR this year? He did that in 338 AB (not including second half of Aug)...not 510 AB.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 3:20 PM Post
Posts: 231
Location: Milwaukee
Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips. Games played doesn't matter. What matters is how many times they walk to the plate. This can easily happen given there will be injuries, days off and matchups played by Counsell. Even if Santana gets his 610 PA again and Braun is back to his 560 like the past 3yrs then that leaves 465 each for Brinson/Phillips if equally split. If Braun only gets 500 PA then Brinson/Phillips each get 495. That's plenty of PT to keep them consistently playing and developing. You can do that for 2yrs.

Phillips emerges and now the "lets trade Brinson" ship is sailing? My goodness. As Lathund already pointed out - it's going to be Brinson + 1-2 other top prospects to land a great rotation arm. Big picture - Braun's contract ends in 3yrs. Santana's in 4yrs but his defense isn't anywhere near that of Brinson/Phillips so you trade him in 2yrs to add to the system. Now we're looking at Braun/Brinson/Phillips + 4th during Braun's final year while Brinson/Phillips still have 4yrs left. That gives you 2yrs to get Ray, Harrison, Clark MLB ready where one emerges as the 4th OF that year prepping to take over for Braun with potentially another in that group stepping in as the 4th then. If Ray, Harrison, Clark all develop nicely then 1-2 can turn into trade bait.

Trade Broxton this winter, like I said before this season and at the deadline as Brinson and Phillips can walk right in and take over (as we saw the final month). They're 4yrs younger too. There's no reason to leave 6yrs each of Brinson + 1-2 top prospects for 3yrs of a top tier rotation arm. You trade Nelson and Chase in the near future with guys like Burnes, Ortiz coming through. Brewers need to build a dominant pen not focus on one dominant rotation arm for 3yrs.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 3:26 PM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
Brew4U said:
MrTPlush said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I'd agree with the idea of keeping Braun at 120-130 starts per season and make sure he's fresh and not playing hurt. If he's dealing with a nagging issue, the 10 day DL should be used early.


Ryan Braun had 99 starts last season and he played a huge chunk of that injured. Your plan would have had him at like 60 games started.


And the three seasons before that he played 135, 140, and 135 games. I think KeithStone's more on track than your rhetoric. Heck, even the fact that you won't give him his 104 games that he started because for some reason you won't count the DH makes me giggle. Because those games don't count... [laughing]


95 games in LF
4 at DH
5 as PH


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 3:30 PM Post
Posts: 231
Location: Milwaukee
Brew4U said:
MrTPlush said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I'd agree with the idea of keeping Braun at 120-130 starts per season and make sure he's fresh and not playing hurt. If he's dealing with a nagging issue, the 10 day DL should be used early.


Ryan Braun had 99 starts last season and he played a huge chunk of that injured. Your plan would have had him at like 60 games started.


And the three seasons before that he played 135, 140, and 135 games. I think KeithStone's more on track than your rhetoric. Heck, even the fact that you won't give him his 104 games that he started because for some reason you won't count the DH makes me giggle. Because those games don't count... [laughing]

Braun's injuries this year won't carry over. They'll be resolved come spring. The suspension year doesn't count so outside of this year he's never had fewer than 564 PAs and he's always dealt with nagging injuries here and there. Plush, every single year you talk about how Braun misses way too much time yet there's no evidence of that outside of 2017. Based on his PAs the past 3yrs that means he would have played what amounts to 1.5 fewer games per month than Santana and Shaw this year. He'll be back to his usual PAs because that's what history and evidence shows.

Even if you target Braun at 500 healthy PAs the next 3yrs he'll kill it because that's what he does when he's healthy. And his 17-19M annual contract will still be plenty fine. History/evidence also prove that to be true.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 3:42 PM Post
Posts: 496
Location: New Berlin, WI
Humans Need Water said:
Brew4U said:
MrTPlush said:
Ryan Braun had 99 starts last season and he played a huge chunk of that injured. Your plan would have had him at like 60 games started.


And the three seasons before that he played 135, 140, and 135 games. I think KeithStone's more on track than your rhetoric. Heck, even the fact that you won't give him his 104 games that he started because for some reason you won't count the DH makes me giggle. Because those games don't count... [laughing]

Braun's injuries this year won't carry over. They'll be resolved come spring. The suspension year doesn't count so outside of this year he's never had fewer than 564 PAs and he's always dealt with nagging injuries here and there. Plush, every single year you talk about how Braun misses way too much time yet there's no evidence of that outside of 2017. Based on his PAs the past 3yrs that means he would have played what amounts to 1.5 fewer games per month than Santana and Shaw this year. He'll be back to his usual PAs because that's what history and evidence shows.

Even if you target Braun at 500 healthy PAs the next 3yrs he'll kill it because that's what he does when he's healthy. And his 17-19M annual contract will still be plenty fine. History/evidence also prove that to be true.


500 healthy PA would probably be around 120-130 games. Just saying. Even if you are cynical and say "well early in his career he was getting help from gummies"...the 3 years prior to this he's been under the stricter testing and has 135, 140, and 135 games played with upper 500s PA. It's more reasonable to expect something similar to that or slightly fewer games than that than to say he'll play 90 or even 60 games.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 3:47 PM Post
Posts: 1689
Location: Madison, WI
The decision to bring him off the DL early this year only to re-injure immediately and then be out significantly longer could have been the difference in getting a couple Ws they needed. Next year, with a strong 4th OF prospect you're looking to get PT to instead of a guy like Perez and you just don't have to rush him back. Take the extra 4 days, shoot up the thumb while you're at it, recharge and get going.

I just don't see what's to argue about here with Braun. You plan on 120-135 games, if you're unlucky you'll have what happened this year. If you get lucky maybe you'll get to 140 or 145 games, but very unlikely. When healthy he's a plus bat and you play him and try to ride him when he's hot. It's that simple. Then hope the DH comes in the last couple years of his deal.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 4:15 PM Post
Posts: 10109
Humans Need Water said:
adambr2 said:
Well, I would say the opposite has happened.

I will be blunt in my opinion here, but I do have a right to this opinion: Braun is overrated. Really overrated.

He's wrapping up a season hitting under .270, mediocre power with 17 HR, and a 1.5 fWAR, half a win less than Manny Pina. Yet we act like he is still one of the best in the game. C'mon now.

He's ok. He has enough decent stretches where his contract shouldn't be a disaster. But you stack him up against the best hitters in the game, Altuve, Blackmon,
Trout, etc. etc, no, he can't hold their respective jocks. Not anymore.


Trout is 8yrs younger than Braun and Altuve is 6yrs. Nice comparison using guys entering their prime vs a 33yr old.

At least Blackmon is 30. But he slashed 276/337/784 on the road this year (look up what he hit at Coors - fun stuff). Blackmon's slashed 264/312/740 over his career away from Coors while slashing 346/406/972 at Coors. Enough said.

On August 17 this year, Braun was slashing 295/368/912 with 10% BB rate, 19% K rate, 134 wRC+ while having the highest hard contact rate of his career. That slash line is right in line with his career numbers, which are pretty evenly split between home/away too, unlike your boy Blackmon and his jock. Braun slumped the final 2wks of August hitting 6-42 with 2 doubles and 0HR. Remove that 2wk stretch from the season and he slashed 284/358/888. Yeah, these numbers SCREAM "really overrated". Then factor in his wrist injury on top of all this.

He's the best bat on the team and will be back to his 560 PAs next year performing where he did for 90% of this year. And mediocre 17HR this year? He did that in 338 AB (not including second half of Aug)...not 510 AB.


If you had actually gone back and gone back and read the posts from the last few days you would have seen me already explain why I compared Braun to the best (to show he is no longer among the best), and in the same post you would have seen me mention comparably aged, far more productive players like Votto and Turner. But by all means, keep beating that dead horse.

Then you spent the rest of your post with horribly reasoned arguments that we've all seen many times before. I can't stomach another "just take out his worst few weeks!" or "think what he would have done if he wasn't hurt!" A Braun playing through injuries is what we're getting the rest of his career. Get used to it. You actually are taking out a stretch in which Braun didn't hit a HR to condense your data so his 17 HR looks more impressive, even though he was still playing and therefore hurting the team with his play. I mean, are you kidding me?

The lengths people will go to, to defend a player who has averaged 2 WAR for 5 seasons in a row now. You know who predicted this kind of season from Braun? Fangraphs. Actually, they overshot, they had him at 1.9 fWAR compared to his actual 1.5 this year. A flipping computer understood based on all available data that Braun is an average at best player now.

Yeah, I'll say it again. He's overrated. Let's bookmark this and revisit it in a year. I'm looking forward to it.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next  [ 141 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Brewer Fever and 3 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test