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Ryan Braun

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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#81

Posted: October 02, 2017, 6:54 PM Post
Posts: 10219
reillymcshane said:
Pugger said:
I think at this point in his career Braun belongs in the American League where he can DH. It wouldn't hurt to see if we can get something for him this offseason while he still has some value.

Problem is that he doesn't really have value.

He's owed the following:

2018:$19M ($4M deferred)
2019:$18M ($3M deferred)
2020:$16M ($3M deferred)
2021:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)

That's $57M - minimum, with $10M deferred.

Fangraphs and Baseball Reference had him valued at 1.5WAR and 1.2WAR in 2017, respectively. His production is down, he's injury prone, he's aging (34 next month) and he's a liability in the field. No one wants to pay $57M in the hope he can rebound.

At this point, we would be lucky to trade him for next to nothing.


Spot on. He has no value. He has negative value, really.

He isn't going anywhere now. Just no longer makes the sense that it made a year ago when we'd have to eat salary and get nothing back.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#82

Posted: October 02, 2017, 8:20 PM Post
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So Braun is going to be here and he's going to spend time on the DL. But what about the time he plays when he's hurt? It sounds like the wrist was a problem for the whole second half. Do you take a 785 OPS playing hurt, or do you push him to spend more time on the DL in hopes that he comes back healthier and and maybe gives you 850-875 over a shorter period?


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#83

Posted: October 02, 2017, 8:27 PM Post
Posts: 2916
bork said:
So Braun is going to be here and he's going to spend time on the DL. But what about the time he plays when he's hurt? It sounds like the wrist was a problem for the whole second half. Do you take a 785 OPS playing hurt, or do you push him to spend more time on the DL in hopes that he comes back healthier and and maybe gives you 850-875 over a shorter period?


I think now that the farm system depth is ready for MLB, you can. Afford to play Braun less when he's struggling with injuries

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#84

Posted: October 02, 2017, 8:58 PM Post
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bork said:
So Braun is going to be here and he's going to spend time on the DL. But what about the time he plays when he's hurt? It sounds like the wrist was a problem for the whole second half. Do you take a 785 OPS playing hurt, or do you push him to spend more time on the DL in hopes that he comes back healthier and and maybe gives you 850-875 over a shorter period?

I say you only play him when he's healthy. We've got Santana, Brinson, Phillips and Broxton. Those guys can cover the OF if Braun isn't healthy. I would rather have Braun hitting a .875 OPS in 90-100 games than a .785 OPS in 120-130 games. Plus, I want him healthy at playoff time.

I think we have the personnel to not have to push Braun - and as I said, I'd rather have his bat hitting big come playoff time than struggling due to a bunch of nicks and dings.

Santana: 140 starts
Brinson: 125
Phillips: 125
Braun: 96 starts
Plus there's DH opportunities, pinch hit opportunities, etc.

And the starts are just a demonstration of how things could work. Depending on how guys actually play, plus injuries, it would fluctuate. Plus there are other guys we haven't even mentioned - Broxton and Perez.

I think we'd be covered fine if Braun wasn't playing everyday.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#85

Posted: October 02, 2017, 9:41 PM Post
Posts: 5878
Braun has value. I know we discussed it for 80 or 90 pages in the transaction thread, but it all depends on how much of his contract the Brewers would need to eat. Plus, Braun has to approve the trade.

Problem is he will always be I hired. Always. He can play through it best he can, bit that's what's holding back a trade more than anything.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#86

Posted: October 02, 2017, 10:27 PM Post
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I think he plays closer to 140 games next season than the 95-100 some are trying to spin this as. I’d also say he’s closer to the .900 OPS range than the .800 range as well. Again it’s all opinion as no one knows. Some are trying to state their opinion as fact here. All I know is some people here better hope it’s closer to what I’m guessing because it will only help the Brewers wins games, he still might be able to be traded and Brinson has been more injury prone in his youth than Braun has ever been in his career. That’s downright scary.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#87

Posted: October 03, 2017, 6:40 AM Post
Posts: 10219
Brew4U said:
I think he plays closer to 140 games next season than the 95-100 some are trying to spin this as. I’d also say he’s closer to the .900 OPS range than the .800 range as well. Again it’s all opinion as no one knows. Some are trying to state their opinion as fact here. All I know is some people here better hope it’s closer to what I’m guessing because it will only help the Brewers wins games, he still might be able to be traded and Brinson has been more injury prone in his youth than Braun has ever been in his career. That’s downright scary.


Well I think it goes without saying that when people say something on here, unless they're citing facts, it's their opinion. I don't think there is a need to disclaim it every time with 'in my opinion', but that's just my opinion. [smile]

I don't know what gives you hope that Braun will hit .900 OPS and 140 games next year as he has only hit each of those marks once in the last 5 seasons, and not in the same season. Hope you're right but seems wildly optimistic to me that he'll suddenly do so again at 34 as the injuries continue to become more and more of a problem.

I do however agree with you on Brinson. The best way to proceed with him might be to deal him as a headliner in a blockbuster SP trade this off-season while he still has that top prospect luster on him. A full platoon of Phillips and Broxton could be pretty solid in CF.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#88

Posted: October 03, 2017, 7:13 AM Post
Posts: 1704
Location: Madison, WI
Well he said closer to .900, so he only said above .851. Which he's done every year besides the thumb injury and the current year due to the late season falloff. It's all health, if he plays 140ish healthy games you're getting about what you'd expected for his money. If he plays 100 or is constantly dinged up making him hit poorly then you're not. You just have to plan on him missing games so have a strong 4th OF who can play multiple times a week and the current setup allows for that to happen easily.

For comments like the Braun lovers need to realize he's not what he was and that he's not a great player anymore, I'd say the bashers should also realize that even though he's not what he was it does not make him some terrible Pablo Sandoval like bum out there. Of course he's not at the MVP level he was before all the injuries piled up, but when healthy he is still a very good hitter.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#89

Posted: October 03, 2017, 7:50 AM Post
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Last year is probably the best you can hope for. Relatively healthy, plays 135 games, 30 HR, .300 AVG, .900 OPS.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#90

Posted: October 03, 2017, 8:01 AM Post
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bork said:
Last year is probably the best you can hope for. Relatively healthy, plays 135 games, 30 HR, .300 AVG, .900 OPS.


-Which an OPS of .900 this season would have put him in the top 8 of that category for outfielders. I think we all would accept that from any of our players.
-Playing 135 games puts him around the top 30 this season as well for outfielders. Again, probably acceptable to each of our standards.

I just don't feel that these two stats are out of his reach quite yet. We want to cite his injuries and that he played 104 games this past season but we never want to include that it was 135, 140, 135 the three seasons before that. We also only want to use advanced stats when it fits our narrative. He was smoking the ball this season. Absolutely crushing it when he was healthy. A string of bad luck and the stat line plummeted. Could he have played better in stretches? Of course. But we definitely hold him a higher standard (and maybe we should) than we do of a lot of other ballplayers. And I've been on record saying that a lot of that stems from his past mistakes and how he handled himself and will stick by that for a lot of people that discuss Braun. He's an easy guy to dislike because of his actions five seasons ago. Either way, I just wouldn't write him off quite yet.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#91

Posted: October 03, 2017, 8:06 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
I do however agree with you on Brinson. The best way to proceed with him might be to deal him as a headliner in a blockbuster SP trade this off-season while he still has that top prospect luster on him. A full platoon of Phillips and Broxton could be pretty solid in CF.


Yes. I agree here. Move Brinson for prospects or possibly a pitcher and let Phillips be the main guy out in CF. Broxton can cover us as a 4th OF too. He's good enough to fill in for stretches if someone does get hurt. I doubt Perez is going anywhere so he is your defacto 4th/5th outfielder so to me, that covers us.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#92

Posted: October 03, 2017, 8:52 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
I do however agree with you on Brinson. The best way to proceed with him might be to deal him as a headliner in a blockbuster SP trade this off-season while he still has that top prospect luster on him. A full platoon of Phillips and Broxton could be pretty solid in CF.


Yes. I agree here. Move Brinson for prospects or possibly a pitcher and let Phillips be the main guy out in CF. Broxton can cover us as a 4th OF too. He's good enough to fill in for stretches if someone does get hurt. I doubt Perez is going anywhere so he is your defacto 4th/5th outfielder so to me, that covers us.


Yep. Hernan Perez started 34 in LF and 17 in RF this season, he of the .704 OPS and .289 OBP. If Counsell had one flaw this season, it was his love of Perez over better options.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#93

Posted: October 03, 2017, 9:05 AM Post
Posts: 238
When evaluating Braun and his production you can look either at the production itself (And as related to the rest of the league) or in relation to his salary. The latter will show that he underperformed his contract; i.e for the money we're paying Braun we could find a FA who will perform better. Or we could find a FA to produce what Braun did for less money. That may or may not change going forward, but it was the case this year. However one can ask how relevant is that? It would be very relevant if Braun had a team option for next year. It would be very relevant if the Brewers were considering signing him (if a FA) or extending him. It would be relevant if there was a realistic trade proposal in front of us. But Braun has full no-trade rights, with realistically only a couple of teams he'd accept trades to. One of those teams have had Cody Bellinger emerge since they last showed serious interest (that we know of). The chances of trading him are very, very slim.

And so, if we're stuck with him, and the options are to either play him, release him, or eat nearly all his salary in a trade, does the salary really matter? The expense will be there no matter what. 112 OPS+ is poor by Braun's standards, but it's certainly not a burden on the team. If the team as a whole averages anywhere near that you're in the playoffs. So perhaps the most relevant comparison is simply what we'd replace him with, and at this point we don't have three OFs who provide more value to the team. I agree with the school of thought that what makes the most sense is to keep Braun as fit as possible, even if it means less appearances. Maximize his skillset for when he's out there, and give development time to the younger guys when he's not 100%. Basically, barring an unlikely trade opportunity, Braun's contract is a sunk cost. We just have to make the most of it.

As for Brinson; I agree that the injury record at such a young age is a concern (Although I don't know the nature of the injuries, other than the most recent one. Some types of injuries would be more worrysome than others), and the (seeming) emergence of Phillips makes him somewhat more expendable. However I don't agree with the suggestion to trade him now. The ceiling is simply too high for me, and the trade value isn't high enough to compensate for that IMO. There is some risk for sure, but even if Brinson's ability to hit for average (The only of his tools that's there's any real doubt about) struggles to develop the way we hope I still believe he'll be a better player than Keon Broxton. And if it does develop, he's an all-star. Braun is going to miss some time, Santana stayed healthy in 2017, but has had injury problems in the past. Whoever will be on the roster beyond Braun, Santana and Phillips will play a lot. I'd much prefer to have that be Brinson than Broxton (Or Perez. Or Thames. Or the 2018 versions of Franklin or Nieuwenhuis). Brewers are at the point where you take the chance on the potential upside every time IMO.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#94

Posted: October 03, 2017, 10:06 AM Post
Posts: 1704
Location: Madison, WI
Very good assessment there on the current Braun situation LaThund. Good post.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#95

Posted: October 03, 2017, 11:35 AM Post
Posts: 10219
I'm just curious as to what people want to do with Phillips if we aren't open to trading Brinson. Phillips isn't going back to AAA. He's ready. I know people are generally happy with what he did but I think we even underestimate some how good he was. He was a 1 WAR player in under 100 PAs. Extrapolate that out to just 500 and his production would have been a 5 WAR player, and the .799 OPS he put up is sustainable. I'm not saying he'll be a 5 WAR player, but I see no reason he can't be a 3-4 WAR CF, especially when you consider he's still just 23 with room to improve.

Everyone is high on Brinson because of his prospect status but Phillips was a top prospect in his own right. Then he had one bad year in AA and unfairly fell off the prospect map. Since then he's been right back to doing what he was doing as a top prospect only doing it up here now.

I also don't agree that Brinson's trade value isn't enough to compensate for his ceiling. If you can use him as a centerpiece for a front line starter I'd say that's plenty of value.

I like Brinson. But if I had to bet on him or Phillips being the CF of the future right now, I'd go with Phillips.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#96

Posted: October 03, 2017, 11:47 AM Post
Posts: 733
Location: New Berlin, WI
I'd agree with the idea of keeping Braun at 120-130 starts per season and make sure he's fresh and not playing hurt. If he's dealing with a nagging issue, the 10 day DL should be used early and often on him even to get over little things. Perez/Sogard can act as 4th outfielder when Braun needs a short DL stint to make sure he stays fresh and healthy. All that should allow plenty of atbats for Phillips/Brinson if both open on the MLB roster. It would be nice if Braun could learn 1b and keep from having to run all over the place and make diving catches(all that helps keep him fresh). That way he'd also be a bit more versatile and could make Aguilar expendable(while allowing even more PT for Phillips/Brinson). There are a lot of options, and healthy Braun is the best hitter on the team. The dream will be to find a way to keep him that way all season.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#97

Posted: October 03, 2017, 11:53 AM Post
Posts: 238
adambr2 said:
I'm just curious as to what people want to do with Phillips if we aren't open to trading Brinson.


Play him?

Braun, Santana, Phillips, Brinson. If you spread time evenly that's 120 starts each. In addition to that there will inevitably be injuries during the season. Braun will need his off days. Pinch hitting. Defensive substituations. Double switches. 10 DH games. Plenty of playing time to go around.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#98

Posted: October 03, 2017, 12:09 PM Post
Posts: 1704
Location: Madison, WI
Yea I'd say it's a no brainer, Brinson plays vs lefties and Phillips sits vs lefties. So that's 1-2 starts per week. He also plays for Braun 1-2 times per week. Tack on a spot start for Santana and a few stretches of Braun or any other OF on the DL and he's going to get plenty of ABs. That's of course assuming Broxton is gone.

That said, the idea of Brinson being viewed as untradeable like he was often talked about at the deadline might be a bit overblown. It very well could be the best value you'd get from him is to bring back a top notch P. Was Gray/Quintana worth it, IDK, that's behind us. But say a Chris Archer comes on the block and Brinson has to be the headliner, I'm not hesitating.

I would also add that I support at least on of Braun/Santana putting in cursory time working at 1B in the offseason to increase flexibility of lineups. In a weird way I think Braun might be better injury-wise to stand around in the OF doing literally nothing for 70% of plays than to be so involved like he would be at 1B, fielding grounders, stretching, running around for cutoffs, etc so I'd be for Santana trying it out.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on October 03, 2017, 12:15 PM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
#99

Posted: October 03, 2017, 12:13 PM Post
Posts: 733
Location: New Berlin, WI
tmwiese55 said:
Yea I'd say it's a no brainer, Brinson plays vs lefties and Phillips sits vs lefties. So that's 1-2 starts per week. He also plays for Braun 1-2 times per week. Tack on a spot start for Santana and a few stretches of Braun or any other OF on the DL and he's going to get plenty of ABs. That's of course assuming Broxton is gone.

That said, the idea of Brinson being viewed as untradeable like he was often talked about at the deadline might be a bit overblown. It very well could be the best value you'd get from him is to bring back a top notch P. Was Gray/Quintana worth it, IDK, that's behind us. But say a Chris Archer comes on the block and Brinson has to be the headliner, I'm not hesitating.


Every player has a price. Literally every single one. If the Angels call and are looking to discretely take bids on Trout, are we gonna say "oh but Hader and Brinson are untouchable". WRONG! Obviously this is an extreme example, my point is any player can be traded at any time for the right price.


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Offline  Re: Ryan Braun
Posted: October 03, 2017, 12:17 PM Post
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I just don't know how we go into a season and say okay Brinson, you're only going to see lefties. How does that help him as a player? He'll never grow to the potential the pundits say he does. Either he has to play 120ish games, or we have to shop him around to a suiter. Because if the plan is only lefties, you'll destroy him as an overall player anyways with platooning him.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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