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2017 vs. 2018

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Offline  Re: 2017 vs. 2018
#41

Posted: October 05, 2017, 12:00 PM Post
Posts: 29
I expect a fair amount of regression from several players. However, there's always a few guys that surprise you as well, and they shouldn't have to go into the season with guys like Franklin and Kirk on the 25-man, nor should they have to rely on starters as bad as Guerra and Peralta and relievers as bad as Feliz, Torres, and Drake. All they need is serviceable players to get much better in those areas, making up for some of the regression from this year's best players. There's not a lot of candidates for an injury or age-based decline, and guys like Hader and Phillips will be on the roster all year so they'll probably get more WAR out of those roster spots even if they don't play as well.

ETA: Shouldn't have to rely on Bandy and Susac as much either, though I'm not sure how much better Vogt will be. Does he have a good year left in him?


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Offline  Re: 2017 vs. 2018
#42

Posted: October 10, 2017, 1:09 PM Post
Posts: 728
clancyphile said:
Shortstop: Arcia's got a great glove, but a .730 OPS doesn't fill me with confidence. That said, Villar showed in 2016 he could play short. I am hopeful he can improve some, but my real worry is he plateaus. I would hate to see the Brewers pay a good-field, no-hit shortstop millions of bucks a year ala Royce Clayton.


Since when is 730 OPS (90 OPS+) a 'no-hit' shortstop? Clayton (and many other Brewers over the last 25 years) was ~630 OPS (68 OPS+). That's a big difference. Arcia certainly has things to work on during the off season, but he's young enough to think that he has a real chance to improve. If he regresses like Segura, then it will be a problem, but even plateauing at the production he had this year makes him serviceable, particularly with his defense.


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Offline  Re: 2017 vs. 2018
#43

Posted: October 10, 2017, 1:16 PM Post
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Posts: 16977
MadScientist said:
clancyphile said:
Shortstop: Arcia's got a great glove, but a .730 OPS doesn't fill me with confidence. That said, Villar showed in 2016 he could play short. I am hopeful he can improve some, but my real worry is he plateaus. I would hate to see the Brewers pay a good-field, no-hit shortstop millions of bucks a year ala Royce Clayton.


Since when is 730 OPS (90 OPS+) a 'no-hit' shortstop? Clayton (and many other Brewers over the last 25 years) was ~630 OPS (68 OPS+). That's a big difference. Arcia certainly has things to work on during the off season, but he's young enough to think that he has a real chance to improve. If he regresses like Segura, then it will be a problem, but even plateauing at the production he had this year makes him serviceable, particularly with his defense.


He was 14th in wOBA out of 22 qualified shortstops and 16th in wRC+. He was also only 18th in fWAR and 15th in defense.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: 2017 vs. 2018
#44

Posted: October 10, 2017, 1:51 PM Post
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Arica is going to be 24 years old so still young enough to continue to improve. Elvis Andrus has been a .800+ OPS hitter the last two seasons after being under .700 the previous three seasons. Didi Gregorious is another example of it. Hopefully, Arcia gets at it faster than his age 28 & 29 season but he has the talent to do it.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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