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2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread

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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#21

Posted: October 07, 2017, 9:39 PM Post
Posts: 492
markedman5 said:
Thames and Aguilar as a platoon is fine.......


Its fine during a rebuild phase & when determining what are best outcomes in other areas of need (even optimistically there are still multiple areas of need w/ the Crew). However, if this club is looking to contend, it needs a better option at 1st or at least a better platoon partner for Thames.

Jesus is the definition of AAAA player. Some short spurts of success here & there but barely replacement level over the course of a season/ multiple seasons.


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#22

Posted: October 08, 2017, 7:58 AM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
markedman5 said:
Thames and Aguilar as a platoon is fine.......


Its fine during a rebuild phase & when determining what are best outcomes in other areas of need (even optimistically there are still multiple areas of need w/ the Crew). However, if this club is looking to contend, it needs a better option at 1st or at least a better platoon partner for Thames.

Jesus is the definition of AAAA player. Some short spurts of success here & there but barely replacement level over the course of a season/ multiple seasons.


You may or may not be right long term ... but this is just a weird thing to say right now. He just finished his first full season and was a 1.3 WAR which by definition means he was above replacement level and worthy of a bench role this year. I would also be looking for a stud in order to seriously contend - but don't say silly things just to make a point.


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#23

Posted: October 08, 2017, 9:36 AM Post
Posts: 492
liveforoctober said:
MadThinker88 said:

Jesus is the definition of AAAA player. Some short spurts of success here & there but barely replacement level over the course of a season/ multiple seasons.


You may or may not be right long term ... but this is just a weird thing to say right now. He just finished his first full season and was a 1.3 WAR which by definition means he was above replacement level and worthy of a bench role this year. I would also be looking for a stud in order to seriously contend - but don't say silly things just to make a point.


Its not a silly thing to say. Jesus has a career 0.3 WAR after posting 1.3 WAR last season.
I've been a supporter of Jesus for years, ever since he & I chatted for a few moments between innings as he got ready to bat during a Midwest League game in 2011 (BTW he went deep yard shot to left field in that at bat).
For a guy that could drive in runs by the boatload in the minors, every chance Jesus got in Cleveland was a struggle/ letdown.
Personally I am happy he performed well for the Crew last season. Maybe this is a case of changing scenery/ league that works out. Although a fan of his personally, I would not bet on that success being sustained.


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#24

Posted: October 08, 2017, 10:49 AM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
For a guy that could drive in runs by the boatload in the minors, every chance Jesus got in Cleveland was a struggle/ letdown.

All 64 plate appearances they gave him?

Kind of hard to make an impact (and accumulate WAR) when you're stuck behind Carlos Santana.


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#25

Posted: October 09, 2017, 8:05 AM Post
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It's possible to Thames/Aguilar was a fluke that will regress in the future, but if you're looking at how we will add wins to 2018, it will be difficult to find a way to improve on the numbers we got from 1B in 2017.

The holes in 2017 that we could hope to improve on are CF, which will likely be filled by a combination of Brinson/Phillips, 2B, the bullpen at the start of the season, and the last couple of rotation spots in the second half of the season. I expect we do something at 2B, move Hader to the rotation, add another starter, and add a couple of quality relievers.

As to the strikeout total, that's probably going to be a longer-term fix, but for now there are a couple of things that could help:

-having Brinson/Phillips as the CF/4th OF should improve on having Broxton/Perez as the CF/4th OF.
-we could find a 2B who is a contact-hitting / high OBP leadoff hitter
-re-sign Sogard as a utility guy, using Perez as part of a trade


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#26

Posted: October 09, 2017, 8:54 AM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
jerichoholicninja said:
markedman5 said:
I'm sure Stearns is aware of this but it seems this might be 1 reason why the offense sputtered

https://twitter.com/darenw/status/915684840263098368


I'm not sure exactly that stat proves. Seems just like a thing that has no correlation to anything else.

Not to mention, that graph shows us as being 7th in the NL in the stat, so it's not like they were terrible in that regard.


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#27

Posted: October 09, 2017, 10:18 AM Post
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Granted Thames had a few LF starts and these are pinch hit numbers included... but our first base production this year between the two was a .254 average with 47 HRs, 115 RBIs, with an OPs somewhere in the .860 range.

We could do a lot, lot worse.


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#28

Posted: October 09, 2017, 11:04 AM Post
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liveforoctober said:
Granted Thames had a few LF starts and these are pinch hit numbers included... but our first base production this year between the two was a .254 average with 47 HRs, 115 RBIs, with an OPs somewhere in the .860 range.

We could do a lot, lot worse.


Overall our 1B position was very average, 0.0 wins above AVERAGE. Defense hurts.

Also, our official line just for the 1B position is
41 HR, 96 RBI .269/.362/.547. the .909 OPS is good for 6th across MLB for total team 1B output


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#29

Posted: October 09, 2017, 12:21 PM Post
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I don't trust WAR, at all. If our first base puts up the numbers they did this past season, I'll be perfectly fine with it. Granted I hope it is more consistent rather than the ups and downs we had this season but my gosh, those guys played well this season.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: 2017-18 Offseason Optimism Thread
#30

Posted: October 10, 2017, 1:54 AM Post
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Should be clarified he's not claiming Thames and Aguilar were 0 WAR players, just that they were exactly league average in production. Thames and Aguilar combined for 3 WAR.

According to that our pen and rotation were both above average. We were below average in LF, CF, and 2B, average or better everywhere else.


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