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Brewers 2018 Payroll (updated 12/01/17)

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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#21

Posted: October 11, 2017, 7:02 AM Post
Posts: 813
Good stuff, Keith. Very well thought out. Thanks for the input.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#22

Posted: October 11, 2017, 7:47 AM Post
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https://reviewingthebrew.com/2017/10/02 ... n-preview/

Here's an article about this kind of thing on page 5. A lot of his comments though, like the one about Nelson only in line for a fraction of what he would have made if he hadn't gotten hurt, make me think he really doesn't understand the arbitration process.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#23

Posted: October 11, 2017, 8:09 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
adambr2 said:
I just find it kind of hilarious that the entire baseball world has advanced into the 21st century by now with the lone exception of arbitration panels who are still stuck in the 80s. It makes absolutely no logical sense and guys end up non-tendered at times because GMs these days are not stupid and they're not going to pay a player double his open market value just because an arbitration panel likes old school numbers.

That's exactly what happened with Chris Carter last year -- if the Brewers thought they could tender him at closer to his real market value at the time, 3M or so, good chance they would have. Unfortunately for Carter, David Stearns is not insane and thus isn't going to pay $8-$10M for a $3M asset just because he hit 41 HRs.

Potentially, the same thing could happen to Villar. I'm not saying he's worth significantly less than 3M, but if the Brewers believe that his 2016 steals count will overinflate his arbitration numbers too much for their liking, they might go a different direction.


There is zero chance that villar is non-tendered. It baffles me that the idea even found it's way to the table. I Don't think there's any circumstance in which we wouldn't tender him at this stage with the team control remaining, but especially given our payroll flexibility.


I doubt very much that Villar is non-tendered, but I wouldn't put the chances at 'zero". They may not want to go with him in 2018 as the 2B, and he's not a great fit as a utility player.

More likely, they'd look for a trade partner first, but I wouldn't expect much back.

I really don't think payroll flexibility has much to do with it either. Stearns is more concerned with value than price. It's not like we couldn't afford to pay Scooter Genett 2.5M back in March. (not to pull at that thread again). [smile]


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#24

Posted: October 11, 2017, 8:53 AM Post
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I'm sure the payroll will be expanded substantially, but I hope that Stearns will still be smart with money. Melvin's goal seemed to be to find a way to spend the money allotted in the budget whether it helped the team or not. I'd rather look at it as an available resource that can be tapped if it makes sense.

I agree that there will be some extensions, but they won't really effect the payroll immediately (most of the committed money will be in future years), so there will be some additional vets on the 2018 roster acquired either by free agency or trade. I expect some relievers, maybe a 2B, and a starter acquired who are under control for 2-3 years.

I do think that if the right situation arises, we could go for the "home run" on a starting pitcher. I just hope that if we go for the "home run," this would not be a "Greinke-type" deal where we sell the farm for a guy with two years left. A free agent signing, or a trade for a younger guy with 4-5 years left would be more palatable. I think the more likely scenario will be that we sign a solid vet like Lynn to a 2-3 year deal or take on salary in a trade for a decent SP with 2-3 years left.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#25

Posted: October 11, 2017, 9:09 AM Post
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I think one key thing to note is that other than extensions to the newest crop (Hader, Phillips, Brinson, maybe Arcia, etc.) which wouldn't kick any different money than we'd have already been paying them until like 2022 or 2023, the current crop of guys hitting arbitration are almost all not guys I expect to sign a second contract for the Brewers. If they do, it's probably as a cheaper player that didn't completely pan out. Maybe Santana.

Shaw will be 32, Anderson will be 33, Davies will be 30 but seems like a guy somebody will outbid us for, Santana to me seems like a guy that may plateau soon, Knebel is a complete wild card, Nelson obviously we don't know if he'll ever be the same. Villar is a massive wild card that may not even be around next year.

Those guys are all 3-4 years out from free agency, but I'm not sure if any of them factor into our plans after their rookie/arbitration times are up.

I think that somewhat plays into the aggressiveness of the front office. They may want to spend up on a few bigger $ guys because we won't need to keep internal FAs for 5+ years in all likelihood.

Sure, maybe they bring back Shaw because for whatever reason, 3B is the one spot that still remains empty in 4 years, but I think the plan is just to backfill with a deep farm system in general. Don't make many major trades (unless an absolute ace is available and controllable) and use free agency to improve.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#26

Posted: October 11, 2017, 11:24 AM Post
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I agree bill hAll Star.

A lot of the "older" guys will be helpful for a few more years, and then be good trade bait as they head into their final year(s) of team control. I like signing extensions to guys in their pre-arby years that buy out a couple of years of the player's prime. Arcia should get offered an extension, Hader probably should but the earlier poster who mentioned it may be tough because of the question of whether he's a SP or RP had a good point. Santana would be a good guy to offer an extension to if he is part of your future plans. I don't see a lot of value in offering extensions to guys who are already into their arby years, as you are essentially paying market (free agent) prices at that point so you don't get paid for assuming most of the risk. Nelson may have been an exception to that, as it's hard to outbid everyone for a good SP when they hit free agency, but his injury puts the kibosh on offering him an extension until we know how he'll pitch when he returns.

As to the Villar/Perez discussion, I think at least one of them is traded, and it will probably be Perez. You know what you have in Perez, so it's easier to figure out a trade value for him, while Villar could greatly increase his value if he has any kind of a bounceback next year. I think we need to get some guys in the lineup who make better contact. We won't be able to make huge strides in that direction all at once, but getting a "professional hitter" as a utility guy instead of Perez will be one step in that direction.

Going off the list from the initial post, and assuming that some guys like Torres and Perez will probably be gone, that gives us probably $50M or so in free cash that could potentially be spent. I am very interested to see how Stearns plays this. We will almost assuredly spend on a couple of good bullpen arms, we will probably address second base, and we will likely acquire a starting pitcher. The big question to me is whether the starting pitcher will slot in around #3 or if we will shoot for a guy who could be our #1.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#27

Posted: October 11, 2017, 12:45 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
I think one key thing to note is that other than extensions to the newest crop (Hader, Phillips, Brinson, maybe Arcia, etc.) which wouldn't kick any different money than we'd have already been paying them until like 2022 or 2023, the current crop of guys hitting arbitration are almost all not guys I expect to sign a second contract for the Brewers. If they do, it's probably as a cheaper player that didn't completely pan out. Maybe Santana.

Shaw will be 32, Anderson will be 33, Davies will be 30 but seems like a guy somebody will outbid us for, Santana to me seems like a guy that may plateau soon, Knebel is a complete wild card, Nelson obviously we don't know if he'll ever be the same. Villar is a massive wild card that may not even be around next year.

Those guys are all 3-4 years out from free agency, but I'm not sure if any of them factor into our plans after their rookie/arbitration times are up.

I think that somewhat plays into the aggressiveness of the front office. They may want to spend up on a few bigger $ guys because we won't need to keep internal FAs for 5+ years in all likelihood.

Sure, maybe they bring back Shaw because for whatever reason, 3B is the one spot that still remains empty in 4 years, but I think the plan is just to backfill with a deep farm system in general. Don't make many major trades (unless an absolute ace is available and controllable) and use free agency to improve.


I tend to agree with you on this as well for the most part. I could absolutely see us making a play for a high $ player, whether via trade or FA. I fully believe Stearns targets high-end pitching this offseason on all fronts, especially guys that wouldn't be under contract more than 3 or 4 years. I think under the helm of Melvin, Santana/Shaw would be looking at an extensions right now. I don't think that's going to happen with Stearns.

And with all that said, it's still important to be generally responsible with how we spend this offseason. Arbitration bumps will slowly increase salary, and spending now even on 3-4 year deals impacts our flexibility over the next couple off seasons. I'm very excited to see what Stearns has in store.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#28

Posted: October 14, 2017, 6:09 AM Post
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The most interesting question imbedded in this topic is how much do we think they'll raise the payroll next year (and the years to come.). There are levells of certainty with some existing players that allow us to get to a general budget for 2018 butt I can see the front office deciding to go the rout of bringing in some key players they believe have us in playoff contention. Are they ready to drop 30 miliion on the gambit? 10 million? 20 million? That's the biggest question mark in my mind.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#29

Posted: October 19, 2017, 4:40 PM Post
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I think it should be noted that in 2019, the Brewers will have a significant number of arbitration eligible players. While salaries are the same in 2018 as 2019 (just Braun and Thames are under contract), there's going to be a lot of dollars going into the young players entering arbitration. Here's the list of the major ones (player name followed by the number of years they are into the arby process):

Vogt (3)
Anderson (3)
Jeffress (3)
Villar (2)
Nelson (2)
Davies (1)
Perez (2)
Santana (1)
Broxton (1)
Knebel (2)
Pina (1)

And we have virtually no free agents - just Torres and Hughes.

This number of arby guys can easily tack on $15-20M in salary from the previous year. It's why I think there will not be any big signings. They'll add a couple of relievers, maybe look to get someone on the cheap - but no $20M Hosmer or $25M Darvish.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#30

Posted: October 20, 2017, 11:21 AM Post
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reillymcshane said:
I think it should be noted that in 2019, the Brewers will have a significant number of arbitration eligible players. While salaries are the same in 2018 as 2019 (just Braun and Thames are under contract), there's going to be a lot of dollars going into the young players entering arbitration. Here's the list of the major ones (player name followed by the number of years they are into the arby process):

Vogt (3)
Anderson (3)
Jeffress (3)
Villar (2)
Nelson (2)
Davies (1)
Perez (2)
Santana (1)
Broxton (1)
Knebel (2)
Pina (1)

And we have virtually no free agents - just Torres and Hughes.

This number of arby guys can easily tack on $15-20M in salary from the previous year. It's why I think there will not be any big signings. They'll add a couple of relievers, maybe look to get someone on the cheap - but no $20M Hosmer or $25M Darvish.


That's why it's nice that we have a strong farm. Ideally, as guys get into their arby years we will have replacements ready who will allow us to trade the more expensive players. Of course this won't happen in every situation, but if you make a general habit of trading away guys who have 1-2 years of team control remaining and replacing them with guys from the farm, you will continue to bring young talent into the system (through the trades) while keeping the payroll low enough with the pre-arby guys that you can afford to have multiple high-salary guys on the roster.

Doing this, you get 4-5 years of the player, while also giving yourself time to grow a replacement on the farm. Signing good pre-arby guys to extensions just helps out in this, as it allows for the team to have more years of cost-controlled control before you eventually make the trade. The first step of stocking the system with talent at every level is the most difficult for fans to sit through. Hopefully that stage took a lot less time than we all thought it would and we're moving on to the next phase.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (as of 10/10/2017)
#31

Posted: November 10, 2017, 9:53 PM Post
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With Torres let go, and Anderson and Sogard signed, for 2018, here's a look at our salary structure for next year.

C 	Manny Pina	0.55	
C Stephen Vogt * 3.9
1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55
1B Eric Thames 5.0
2B Jonathan Villa* 3.0
SS Orlando Arcia 0.55
3B Travis Shaw 0.55
LF Ryan Braun 19.0 ($4M deferred)
RF Domingo Santa 0.55
CF Keon Broxton 0.55
OF Lewis Brinson 0.55
OF Brett Phillips 0.55
INF Hernan Perez* 2.2
SP Chase Anderso 4.75
SP Jimmy Nelson* 4.7
SP Zach Davies 0.55
SP Brandon Woodr 0.55
S/R Brent Suter 0.55
S/R Josh Hader 0.55
RP Jeremy Jeffres* 2.6
RP Jared Hughes* 2.2
RP Corey Knebel* 4.1
RP Jacob Barnes 0.55
RP Oliver Drake 0.55
RP Eric Sogard 2.4
SP Junior Guerra 0.55

TOTAL: $62.10M


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (updated 11/10/17)
#32

Posted: November 10, 2017, 9:55 PM Post
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The signing of Anderson was a little lower than MLB Trade Rumors had predicted. Add in Torres' release, plus Sogard's signing, and our cap situation has actually improved over the initial list I made a month ago.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (updated 11/10/17)
#33

Posted: December 01, 2017, 8:07 AM Post
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Latest salary update.

C 	Manny Pina	0.55	
C Stephen Vogt 3.065
1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55
1B Eric Thames 5.0
2B Jonathan Villa* 3.0
SS Orlando Arcia 0.55
3B Travis Shaw 0.55
LF Ryan Braun 19.0 ($4M deferred)
RF Domingo Santa 0.55
CF Keon Broxton 0.55
OF Lewis Brinson 0.55
OF Brett Phillips 0.55
INF Hernan Perez* 2.2
SP Chase Anderson 4.75
SP Jimmy Nelson* 4.7
SP Zach Davies 0.55
SP Brandon Woodr 0.55
S/R Brent Suter 0.55
S/R Josh Hader 0.55
RP Jeremy Jeffres* 2.6
RP Jared Hughes* 2.2
RP Corey Knebel* 4.1
RP Jacob Barnes 0.55
RP Oliver Drake 0.55
RP Eric Sogard 2.4
SP Junior Guerra 0.55

TOTAL: $61.265M


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (updated 12/01/17)
#34

Posted: December 01, 2017, 8:30 AM Post
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Do you have 26 guys because Nelson is guaranteed to start the year on the disabled list?


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (updated 12/01/17)
#35

Posted: December 01, 2017, 9:43 PM Post
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Outlander said:
Do you have 26 guys because Nelson is guaranteed to start the year on the disabled list?

Yes.

And guys like Guerra could easily be replaced with other minor leaguers who will make similar pay.

It should be noted that the Brewers have had in the past an incentive program of sorts - rewarding the pre-arby guys with some extra money for performing well. None of that stuff is in here.


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Offline  Re: Brewers 2018 Payroll (updated 12/01/17)
#36

Posted: December 01, 2017, 9:46 PM Post
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Latest numbers after Vogt and Jeffress agreed to deals - and Hughes was non-tendered.

There's only 25 guys listed here, but with Nelson starting on the IR, another reliever is likely to be added to this.

Asteriks (*) are arbitration eligible players - salary estimates are taken from MLB Trade Rumors website.

C 	Manny Pina	0.55
C Stephen Vogt 3.065
1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55
1B Eric Thames 5.0
2B Jonathan Villa* 3.0
SS Orlando Arcia 0.55
3B Travis Shaw 0.55
LF Ryan Braun 19.0 ($4M deferred)
RF Domingo Santa 0.55
CF Keon Broxton 0.55
OF Lewis Brinson 0.55
OF Brett Phillips 0.55
INF Hernan Perez* 2.2
SP Chase Anderson 4.75
SP Jimmy Nelson* 4.7
SP Zach Davies 0.55
SP Brandon Woodr 0.55
S/R Brent Suter 0.55
S/R Josh Hader 0.55
RP Jeremy Jeffress 1.75
RP Corey Knebel* 4.1
RP Jacob Barnes 0.55
RP Oliver Drake 0.55
RP Eric Sogard 2.4
SP Junior Guerra 0.55

Total: $58.125M


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