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Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?

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Offline    Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#1

Posted: October 10, 2017, 8:26 PM Post
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Question: what do people think would be better for the Brewers - to get into the playoffs via the Wild Card for two years in a row - or to miss the playoffs one of those years, but win the division title the next?

Just curious what people think.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#2

Posted: October 10, 2017, 9:01 PM Post
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To me, it depends on how we do in the WC games. Both 1 and dones? Probably will take the NLDS trip. If I'm gauging what's better, I'd go with the playoff stints. Taking it further, I'd probably say 1 world series trip is better than 3 losing WC games in a row. I guess that puts me in the Marlins model.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#3

Posted: October 10, 2017, 9:06 PM Post
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stalton said:
To me, it depends on how we do in the WC games. Both 1 and dones? Probably will take the NLDS trip. If I'm gauging what's better, I'd go with the playoff stints. Taking it further, I'd probably say 1 world series trip is better than 3 losing WC games in a row. I guess that puts me in the Marlins model.


I think that's the whole point of the question. You don't know if wc games are one and done.

I would take the division title. Probably a better team, better chance at winning it all.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#4

Posted: October 10, 2017, 9:10 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
stalton said:
To me, it depends on how we do in the WC games. Both 1 and dones? Probably will take the NLDS trip. If I'm gauging what's better, I'd go with the playoff stints. Taking it further, I'd probably say 1 world series trip is better than 3 losing WC games in a row. I guess that puts me in the Marlins model.


I think that's the whole point of the question. You don't know if wc games are one and done.

I would take the division title. Probably a better team, better chance at winning it all.


Pittsburgh and Minnesota probably agrees with you.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#5

Posted: October 11, 2017, 12:46 AM Post
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No doubt a Division Title. Somewhere in other threads, it was mentioned on Flags in the Stadium and Wild Cards flags compared to Division title Flags are something more to pride on. Also, you have a Home game at minimum, something that 2 wild cards may not provide if you're the road team both times.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#6

Posted: October 11, 2017, 1:09 AM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
Division title and it isn't even remotely close....not even close.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#7

Posted: October 11, 2017, 7:33 AM Post
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I was just curious what people thought.

My feeling is you go with the division title. As noted by others, it probably means you're a better club than a wildcard winner. Coupled with the whole 'one game and out' scenario, I'd go bank on the team over a one five game series rather the one and out.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#8

Posted: October 11, 2017, 7:42 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Division title and it isn't even remotely close....not even close.


I would agree with 1 division title but I wouldn't say that it's not even remotely close. 2 Wild Cards gives you double the chances at a run. Two late Septembers of excitement (At minimum). Under the old system that would be enough for me to prefer the WC. But now that the WC is no longer guaranteed a playoff series, it's a lot different. I guess to fully answer the question I'd want more context -- are the Wild Card games at home? Are we the #1 seed as the division winner or the #3 and on the road in the first round?

But all things being equal and having none of those answers, in our situation right now I'd rather miss the playoffs next year and win the division in 2019 than win the WC both years.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#9

Posted: October 11, 2017, 9:27 AM Post
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Just get to the playoffs, doesn't matter how. The more times the better.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#10

Posted: October 11, 2017, 10:24 AM Post
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I would go with the one that provides more guaranteed playoff games, the division title.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#11

Posted: October 11, 2017, 10:29 AM Post
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Division titles are meaningless to me. (I wish the divisions went out the window and there was just an AL and an NL, teams travel so much easier these days) So I guess I'll take the two WC appearances and hope that we strung enough wins together in one of them to win it all.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#12

Posted: October 11, 2017, 10:35 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
MrTPlush said:
Division title and it isn't even remotely close....not even close.


I would agree with 1 division title but I wouldn't say that it's not even remotely close. 2 Wild Cards gives you double the chances at a run. Two late Septembers of excitement (At minimum). Under the old system that would be enough for me to prefer the WC. But now that the WC is no longer guaranteed a playoff series, it's a lot different. I guess to fully answer the question I'd want more context -- are the Wild Card games at home? Are we the #1 seed as the division winner or the #3 and on the road in the first round?

But all things being equal and having none of those answers, in our situation right now I'd rather miss the playoffs next year and win the division in 2019 than win the WC both years.


Except wild card games are all or nothing. When we currently have a dominant ace I would hate to be in that position. Your one division title assures more games(3) than two WC appearances(2). While I think historically(small sample so far) wild card teams have done well in the NLDS over time I think their disadvantage will show. Also being a WC team I am going to assume our team is worse. I will take my one shot with a 95 win team vs. two 87 win teams.

And as you said more context is meaningful. Are we a dominant WC like Arizona was and a division winner strength team just in the wrong division to actually win it? That matters. I don't want two appearances with the team we had this year.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#13

Posted: October 11, 2017, 11:56 AM Post
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Two wild cards, the more shots at a World Series the better. Will take two shots at winning 12 games vs one shot at winning 11. Sure it would stink to end up like the Pirates but that is the risk I would be willing to make.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#14

Posted: October 11, 2017, 12:08 PM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
Just get to the playoffs, doesn't matter how. The more times the better.


I agree. There's roughly a 50% chance you win the WC game, which means there's probably about a 40% chance you win the LDS since you will have used some of your best pitchers in the WC game, will probably be playing a superior team, and won't have home field. 40% of 50% is roughly a 20% chance of advancing to the LCS. An 80% chance of not advancing to the LCS, repeated 2 years in a row, is a 64% chance of not advancing either year. But the average division winner has slightly better than a 50% chance of advancing, since 2 of the 3 division winners will have home field and theoretically be a slightly better team, and 1 of those will get to play a weakened WC team.

So, not digging any further, a mere 36% chance of advancing to the LCS at least once does seem worse than being a division winner. BUT some of the 36% includes the slim chance that you win the WC game both times (~25% chance) and win both first rounds (~16% chance), where 25% of 16% is about 4%. Alternatively, you can see 4% as 20% of 20%, which was the rough likelihood of winning the LDS as a WC. The other 32% of LCS-winning scenarios involves losing the WC game one year but winning the LDS the other year (20%) and winning the WC both years but winning the LDS once (12%).

Winning the LDS as a WC one year but losing the other year is better* than winning the LDS as a division winner but not making the playoffs at all the other year. Winning the LDS both years is obviously better. Those combine for 16% of the possibilities. That 36% chance of making the LCS has to be weighted differently.

Winning the LDS one year and losing the WC the other year is probably better as well, unless you don't value the entertainment of a WC chase and a single game very much. And that's what it comes down to - what's your attitude about being entertained vs. trying to have a perfect year? I wouldn't trade the year the Brewers just had for a slightly better team next year, as long they're still good next year. That's 2 years of riveting entertainment, and they didn't even make the WC. From that vantage point, it's easily better to make the WC twice. Your chances of making the LCS twice make it a legit debate even from a strict "best chance of a title" perspective, but the fun factor makes it a slam dunk in favor of the WC's for me.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#15

Posted: October 11, 2017, 12:28 PM Post
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Hanging either WC or Division Title flag without the WS flag just shows you ended a loser. The playoffs are fun, but if you can't stand at the top at the end, its "maybe next year".

So to answer the question, the distinction between the two is a moot point.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#16

Posted: October 11, 2017, 12:37 PM Post
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In a two year span, I'd take the Division Title. If it were to be a 4 year span (or more) I'd take the Wild Card chances.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#17

Posted: October 11, 2017, 5:28 PM Post
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i divison title - easy decision.

the wild card is just a 1 game series, id rather take a best of 5.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#18

Posted: October 11, 2017, 10:39 PM Post
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Im going to thread jack and say im glad im not an indians fan. The past 2 years must have been brutal for them. Sure theyve won a bunch of games and had that 22 game winning streak, but they have now lost 6 straight series clinching games. Thats insane! That more heartbreak than anyone but cubs and cards...and probably yankee fans deserve.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#19

Posted: October 12, 2017, 7:42 AM Post

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i would figure that any club gunning for a division title would be more aggressive with deadline deals . . . which may mean surrendering more top prospects.

based on that, i like getting two wild card appearances and likely not cashing in the farm system for rental players.


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Offline  Re: Would you rather have 2 Wild Card Appearances or 1 Division Title?
#20

Posted: October 12, 2017, 7:50 AM Post
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I'm going with the wild cards, two fun seasons of competitive baseball assured.


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