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2018 Lineup (batting order)

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Offline  2018 Lineup (batting order)
#1

Posted: December 05, 2017, 2:49 AM Post
Posts: 1506
While the roster is far from set I can't be the only one waiting for the offseason to bring about an answer to my biggest question and worry:

Where is the top of this batting order? I can't do Thames Villar again guys. I just can't. I'll lose my mind. I'd be content with:

2 braun (if 1b then phillips brinson 6-7)
3 santana
4 shaw
5 pina/thames
6 aguilar/thames/vogt
7 phillips/brinson
8 arcia

But we have nothing but questions at the lead off spot and 2nd base currently. Do we continue to trot out a 2nd basemen at lead off... thames it... do you want arcia there or the starting CF there? Or do you want to add someone specifically for that spot? We didn't play walker there when we had the chance. Do we simply not value the lead off spot?

One name people kicked the tires on was Yelich. Without batting an eye at the price I'd be interested at that simply to bat him leadoff. Lefty leadoff low K high obp sets everything up behind him beautifully. You can drop 2nd base down to 7th or 8th in the order and the lineup looks very potent 1-5.

Does this bother you as much as it clearly bothers me? Lol


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#2

Posted: December 05, 2017, 7:28 AM Post
Posts: 2680
Righties:
1 Sogard/Villar
2 Phillips
3 Braun
4 Shaw
5 Santana
6 Thames
7 Arcia
8 Pina/Vogt

Lefties:
1 Arcia
2 Brinson
3 Braun
4 Shaw
5 Santana
6 Perez
7 Phillips
8 Pina

If I could make one move for the Brewers it would be to get Hernandez from the Phillies then I would have him bat leadoff pretty much every day and Villar is gone. Then I would give Phillips some starts against lefties but Perez would get the majority of time against lefties and play left or give Shaw a day off here and there. Still think Perez can be a productive player offensively if not over used. I am also making the decision to play Braun at first against lefties and Aguilar is gone because he can't play anywhere except 1B. Brinson would face his fair share of righties due to Braun and his scheduled days off.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#3

Posted: December 05, 2017, 8:37 AM Post
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I'm with you TJ77. I think that a true lead-off hitter would help stabilize the offense (make it less streaky), and I would love to see them find a high-OBP second baseman to fill that role. Bringing back Sogard shows me that Stearns understands that we need some low K / high OBP guys to mix in with all of our high K / high power guys. Sogard makes a good option at utility IF, but I'd rather have a full-time 2B/leadoff hitter with a "professional approach."

This is also why I think Perez will be traded. He's helped out the team over the past couple of years, but getting a player with his approach more PAs is not what this team needs.


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Online  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#4

Posted: December 05, 2017, 9:03 AM Post
Posts: 3684
Location: New Berlin, WI
I imagine the heart of the order will continue to be Thames, Braun, Shaw, Santana in the 2-5. We probably start the season with 2b position leading off, unless we make a significant position player roster adjustment. Arcia will probably continue to hit 8th unless he starts really hitting. 6-7 is some combo of CF and C, I imagine C will hit 6 more often than CF. That's at least how I imagine it starting. I could see CF taking over the leadoff spot quickly if Phillips or Brinson start to deserve it.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#5

Posted: December 05, 2017, 9:49 AM Post
Posts: 1223
Location: Madison, WI
If Panik goes to the Marlins in the Stanton deal, then it might not be a bad idea for Stearns to give the Marlins a call to see if they would flip Panik to Milwaukee. Obviously the Marlins would rather trade Gordon, but the Brewers have second base candidates that are close to being ready, and there is no rule that states the Marlins can't trade both Panik and Gordon. Panik has been a bit up and down with the seasonal OBP, but lifetime is at .345 and IMO would be a pretty decent fit. Biggest concern is that he was a negative in both DRS and UZR/150 in 2017, although he was a positive in both in the 2015 and 2016 seasons.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#6

Posted: December 05, 2017, 10:19 AM Post
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Posts: 3064
Location: California
3-7 should be set for the most part:

3. Braun LF
4. Shaw 3B
5. Santana RF
6. Thames/Aguilar 1B
7. Pina C

That leaves 2B, SS and CF as the remaining pieces for #1, #2 and #8.

#1: Sogard, when he plays, should lead off. I like the idea of Brinson in his early years as a leadoff hitter with him gradually moving to #2 and possibly #3 if he hits like we hope.
#2: Ultimately, I like Arcia as a 2 hitter but is that in 2018? For me, he needs to draw a few more walks to truly fit there. I would probably start him at #2 to start the year and see how he does. Phillips, I like at #2 as well.
#8: Villar, when he plays, I like at #8. I believe we will see Villar play a ton to begin the year, so I would pencil him in at #8.

RHP
1. Brinson/Sogard
2. Arcia/Phillips (If Arcia fails, Phillips moves to #2 and Arcia back to #8)
8. Villar/Phillips/Arcia

LHP
1. Brinson
2. Arcia
8. Villar


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Online  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#7

Posted: December 05, 2017, 10:28 AM Post
Posts: 3684
Location: New Berlin, WI
Warning Track Power said:
3-7 should be set for the most part:

3. Braun LF
4. Shaw 3B
5. Santana RF
6. Thames/Aguilar 1B
7. Pina C

That leaves 2B, SS and CF as the remaining pieces for #1, #2 and #8.

#1: Sogard, when he plays, should lead off. I like the idea of Brinson in his early years as a leadoff hitter with him gradually moving to #2 and possibly #3 if he hits like we hope.
#2: Ultimately, I like Arcia as a 2 hitter but is that in 2018? For me, he needs to draw a few more walks to truly fit there. I would probably start him at #2 to start the year and see how he does. Phillips, I like at #2 as well.
#8: Villar, when he plays, I like at #8. I believe we will see Villar play a ton to begin the year, so I would pencil him in at #8.

RHP
1. Brinson/Sogard
2. Arcia/Phillips (If Arcia fails, Phillips moves to #2 and Arcia back to #8)
8. Villar/Phillips/Arcia

LHP
1. Brinson
2. Arcia
8. Villar


I'm a fan of making guys earn their way up the order(barring a Braun/Bryant/Fielder type hitter). Arcia should stick to the 8 spot until his hitting improves. I would be more inclined to have Brinson/Phillips and Villar/Sogard in the 1-2 in some order in your scenario of Thames hitting 6th, but I think he's going to hit 2nd like he did this year when he plays. Against LH pitching on days he sits out, I could see Santana or Brinson moving up to 2 with Aguilar hitting 5 or 6.

By the end of the year, I expect one of Brinson/Phillips to have earned a more significant slot in the batting order. At the same time, I expect Villar to be cemented into the leadoff role by June with Sogard as strictly a utility guy/bench bat.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#8

Posted: December 05, 2017, 10:41 AM Post
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Posts: 3064
Location: California
KeithStone53151 said:
Warning Track Power said:
3-7 should be set for the most part:

3. Braun LF
4. Shaw 3B
5. Santana RF
6. Thames/Aguilar 1B
7. Pina C

That leaves 2B, SS and CF as the remaining pieces for #1, #2 and #8.

#1: Sogard, when he plays, should lead off. I like the idea of Brinson in his early years as a leadoff hitter with him gradually moving to #2 and possibly #3 if he hits like we hope.
#2: Ultimately, I like Arcia as a 2 hitter but is that in 2018? For me, he needs to draw a few more walks to truly fit there. I would probably start him at #2 to start the year and see how he does. Phillips, I like at #2 as well.
#8: Villar, when he plays, I like at #8. I believe we will see Villar play a ton to begin the year, so I would pencil him in at #8.

RHP
1. Brinson/Sogard
2. Arcia/Phillips (If Arcia fails, Phillips moves to #2 and Arcia back to #8)
8. Villar/Phillips/Arcia

LHP
1. Brinson
2. Arcia
8. Villar


I'm a fan of making guys earn their way up the order(barring a Braun/Bryant/Fielder type hitter). Arcia should stick to the 8 spot until his hitting improves. I would be more inclined to have Brinson/Phillips and Villar/Sogard in the 1-2 in some order in your scenario of Thames hitting 6th, but I think he's going to hit 2nd like he did this year when he plays. Against LH pitching on days he sits out, I could see Santana or Brinson moving up to 2 with Aguilar hitting 5 or 6.

By the end of the year, I expect one of Brinson/Phillips to have earned a more significant slot in the batting order. At the same time, I expect Villar to be cemented into the leadoff role by June with Sogard as strictly a utility guy/bench bat.

While I am an optimist, I didn't want to sound OVERLY optimistic. While I have higher hopes than you for Arcia (I think he will be the one to cement himself in the #2 spot), this would be THE ideal scenario for the Brewers in 2018. Villar returning to 2016 form, Brinson/Phillips firmly planting themselves in the #2 spot and Arcia remaining a top end #8 hitter.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#9

Posted: December 05, 2017, 10:50 AM Post
Posts: 596
1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.
2. Best or second best overall hitter
3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1
4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2
5. Power hitter
6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)
2. Santana
3. Braun
4. Shaw
5. Thames
6. Phillips/Brinson
7. Piña
8. Arcia
9. Pitcher

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#10

Posted: December 05, 2017, 10:59 AM Post
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Posts: 3064
Location: California
Lathund said:
1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.
2. Best or second best overall hitter
3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1
4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2
5. Power hitter
6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)
2. Santana
3. Braun
4. Shaw
5. Thames
6. Phillips/Brinson

7. Piña
8. Arcia
9. Pitcher

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

I favor a L-R-L-R. Splitting Braun and Santana & Shaw and Thames is necessary in my opinion. Seeing that Braun and Shaw are likely locked in at 3-4, your options are putting Santana and Thames at 5-6 or Thames at 2 and Santana at 5. I would be good either way, but would require the splitting of the L-R if I were Counsell.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#11

Posted: December 05, 2017, 11:06 AM Post
Posts: 596
I don't mind Thames at 2 and Santana at 5, I just overall prefer to have Santana earlier as he's one of our best hitters.

The value of alternating L-R-L is one that varies a lot depending on who you play, what kind of bullpen they have, how willing they are to play matchups, what kind of splits the lineup has etc. Sometimes you should absolutely do it, sometimes not. The fact that Counsell usually did have Thames at #2 and Santana at #5 (When Braun/Shaw were available) would suggest he agrees with you. I just favour the more "macro" approach of giving your best hitters as many plate appearances as possible, and playing matchups only when it makes the biggest difference.


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Online  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#12

Posted: December 05, 2017, 11:12 AM Post
Posts: 3684
Location: New Berlin, WI
Warning Track Power said:
Lathund said:
1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.
2. Best or second best overall hitter
3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1
4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2
5. Power hitter
6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)
2. Santana
3. Braun
4. Shaw
5. Thames
6. Phillips/Brinson

7. Piña
8. Arcia
9. Pitcher

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

I favor a L-R-L-R. Splitting Braun and Santana & Shaw and Thames is necessary in my opinion. Seeing that Braun and Shaw are likely locked in at 3-4, your options are putting Santana and Thames at 5-6 or Thames at 2 and Santana at 5. I would be good either way, but would require the splitting of the L-R if I were Counsell.


Counsel showed a tendency to do that as well, especially earlier on before September rolled around and expanded rosters allowed us to use virtually all LH hitters vs RH starters and vice versa.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#13

Posted: December 05, 2017, 11:49 AM Post
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Posts: 2370
If this is truly Sogard's new norm of getting on base, I don't completely mind him being leadoff.

That said, I'd like to maximize the ABs of our best hitters. We're starting Santana because he's got arguably the best bat on the team so get him the most ABs against lefties and nearly the most against righties. I know that if Sogard is truly a .380+ OBP guy that he's up there, but I'd go:

vs. L
1. Santana
2. Braun
3. Shaw
4. Aguilar (if Braun moves to 1B, RH corner OF could maybe go here or move everyone up a slot)
5. Brinson
6. Pina
7. Arcia
8. Sogard (let him still get on and turn the lineup over)
9. Pitcher

vs. R
1. Thames
2. Shaw
3. Santana
4. Braun
5. Phillips (if not confident yet, move him down to 8 and everyone up)
6. Sogard
7. Vogt
8. Arcia
9. Pitcher


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#14

Posted: December 05, 2017, 12:37 PM Post
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Posts: 1228
Location: La Crosse
Lathund said:
1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.
2. Best or second best overall hitter
3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1
4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2
5. Power hitter
6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)
2. Santana
3. Braun
4. Shaw
5. Thames
6. Phillips/Brinson
7. Piña
8. Arcia
9. Pitcher

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

I know it's basically a one year sample, but why not have Thames at #2 and Santana at #5.

-Thames hit .180 with RISP, but he got on base at a .359 clip.
-Domingo hit .300 with RISP, which a similar OBP of .371.

Again it was only one year, but I cringed when I saw Thames up with runners in scoring position. Both will strike out a fair share, but I trust Domingo to come up with a clutch hit more than I would for Thames.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#15

Posted: December 05, 2017, 2:16 PM Post
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Posts: 2370
OnaBadger58 said:
Lathund said:
1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.
2. Best or second best overall hitter
3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1
4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2
5. Power hitter
6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)
2. Santana
3. Braun
4. Shaw
5. Thames
6. Phillips/Brinson
7. Piña
8. Arcia
9. Pitcher

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

I know it's basically a one year sample, but why not have Thames at #2 and Santana at #5.

-Thames hit .180 with RISP, but he got on base at a .359 clip.
-Domingo hit .300 with RISP, which a similar OBP of .371.

Again it was only one year, but I cringed when I saw Thames up with runners in scoring position. Both will strike out a fair share, but I trust Domingo to come up with a clutch hit more than I would for Thames.


That's why I'd hit Domingo 1 or 2 if that's your argument. He may not get up with RISP the first time around but it's more likely that Domingo will get more ABs with RISP later in the game because he'll be hitting more often.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#16

Posted: December 06, 2017, 1:09 AM Post
Posts: 1506
If we go hard platoon... I wish we would with guys like sogard thames vogt broxton... thames starts vs every rhp... sogard vogt only start vs rhp.... broxton only vs lhp.

Rhp
65/35 Sogard/villar
Thames all
Santana
Shaw
Braun (rest vs rhp but who?)
50/50 Vogt/Pina
Phillips all
Arcia (rest vs rhp)

Looks just fine. Sogard thames 1-2 vs rhp doesn't make my stomach turn. Good obp sogard low K thames low gidp. Then the rest sets up easily. Broxton should only start vs lhp so if he stays who spells braun? Brinson could bat 7th if we call him up inplace of broxton. He should not be strict platoon. Thames LF with aguilar at 1st? No matter how its not ideal.

Just thinking out loud...
1b thames aguilar
2b villar sogard
Ss arcia
3b shaw perez
Of santana braun phillips broxton

Lhp
Perez/villar (if villar doesn't bounce back vs lhp he needs to lose those ab)
Braun/aguilar (hate resting braun vs lhp but its less painful)
Santana
Shaw
Aguilar/broxton (broxton only vs lhp)
Pina
Broxton/phillips (dont want phillips in a strict platoon)
Arcia

Yeah it's the villar sogard non-functional platoon. Villar needs to get back his 2016 numbers vs lhp. Although I dont like the idea of sogard leading a platoon in ab... and I hate the idea of villar batting atop the order if he's not back in 2016 form. If he falters vs lhp perez needs to get those ab and thats still not ideal. I want a vet 2b who kills lefties and is solid against RHP on a 2 year deal. Just incase villar sucks again. Would love Panik or Hernandez but I think it can be done cheaper. (No assets traded out) That add comes at the expense of perez. Need villar to be more super sub then.

The more I think about it... we promite Phillips day 1 and stand pat... ugh. Hope I'm wrong.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#17

Posted: December 06, 2017, 8:30 AM Post
Posts: 35
1. Arcia
2. Phillips
3. Shaw
4. Santana
5. Thames
6. Braun
7. Piña
8. Pitcher
9. Sogard

Now it's balanced. It's not always about power and power slots in the batting order it should be about moving runners who can get on base and make sure the guy behind him can make contact. This order will do that and win games


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#18

Posted: December 06, 2017, 9:07 AM Post
Posts: 1223
Location: Madison, WI
Still not buying that Sogard has figured it out as a hitter and that a near 2017 performance is the new normal for him. In 1331 plate appearances for the A's Sogard was a .239/.295/.313/.609 hitter and his best single season OBP was .322. I bet he's much closer to that in 2018.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#19

Posted: December 06, 2017, 9:32 AM Post
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Posts: 10943
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Banking on Sogard to be a contributor to the 2018 offense will put us back in the 70 win range. The dude cannot hit.

And any lineup that starts with Arica/Phillips IMO makes no sense to me. They might be our two most inconsistent hitters in our lineup next season if what we have stays exactly the same. Heck, leading off Braun makes more sense than doing that.


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Online  Re: 2018 Lineup (batting order)
#20

Posted: December 06, 2017, 10:40 AM Post
Posts: 1342
I agree with pretty much everything Lathund and hAll Star said. Best hitters 1-4, OBP most important, #3 might be a little overrated, more ab's for your best hitters trumps profiling certain spots in the lineup, speed on the bases is little more than a tiebreaker for higher spots. Don't get cute and give inferior hitters lots of ab's. The notion that power is wasted in the #1 or #2 spot is a bad reason to move superior hitters down in the order. Alternating L-R's is nice.

One weird situation for the Brewers is Thames. Normally I would dismiss his hitting with RISP as a statistical aberration, but I think he gets a little nervous in those situations. I think he's a bit of a self-doubter who presses. Therefore the conventional wisdom about moving a good power hitter down to #5 is even more wrong in his case. It's better to get a hr with nobody on than k with 2 men on. His OBP is good. He will get pitches to hit in the lead-off spot. I'd probably go with Santana 2nd, Shaw 3rd, and Braun 4th, just to alternate LR's and have the best hitters in the top 4. I don't know what happens after that, but Phillips-Arcia-Pina/Vogt-pitcher-Villar/Sogard could set the table for the power-heavy top of the lineup. Hitting the pitcher 8th is a good move when your lineup is so top-heavy.


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