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Lead Off Hitter

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Offline  Lead Off Hitter
#1

Posted: January 04, 2018, 4:14 PM Post
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There are multiple 2 thru 6 hitters but Milwaukee lacks a true lead off hitter. Any thoughts on the #1 spot in the batting order?


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#2

Posted: January 04, 2018, 4:15 PM Post
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BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
There are multiple 2 thru 6 hitters but Milwaukee lacks a true lead off hitter. Any thoughts on the #1 spot in the batting order?


Santana if still on the roster or Thames are both good ones.


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#3

Posted: January 04, 2018, 4:24 PM Post
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I would assume Villar will be given first crack at it if he wins the 2B job. He was quite dynamic in that role in 2016. Otherwise, Sogard would likely be the guy if he wins the 2B job. If not those two, I imagine either Phillips or Brinson will be the guy, assuming that Broxton is dealt. While not ideal, Arcia also has the speed and on-base ability to be a top-of-the-order table setter. Of course, that ability hasn't been totally realized yet. I think any of those is a better option than Thames or Santana in the lead-off spot. Those guys are run producers, and need to be stationed lower in the line-up.


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#4

Posted: January 04, 2018, 4:30 PM Post
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ba ... ed-demons/


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#5

Posted: January 04, 2018, 4:30 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I would assume Villar will be given first crack at it if he wins the 2B job. He was quite dynamic in that role in 2016. Otherwise, Sogard would likely be the guy if he wins the 2B job. If not those two, I imagine either Phillips or Brinson will be the guy, assuming that Broxton is dealt. While not ideal, Arcia also has the speed and on-base ability to be a top-of-the-order table setter. Of course, that ability hasn't been totally realized yet. I think any of those is a better option than Thames or Santana in the lead-off spot. Those guys are run producers, and need to be stationed lower in the line-up.


One of the young guys surely won't start there, but could earn their way up to that spot quickly like Villar did in 2016. To start the season it's gotta be 2b with occasionally Thames/Santana there depending on the day. Nothing else really makes sense with current roster construction. Brinson probably has the best chance to rise up quickly and take that spot of all our young players.


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#6

Posted: January 04, 2018, 4:30 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
If Walker comes back he'd be a good lead off guy, works the count and will have a good OBP. If Sogard can replicate anything close to what he did last year he would too, but I doubt it. Of course Villar if he returns to form too. My guess is if Walker isn't back then Villar will get vast majority of starts at 2B and leadoff to start the year and see how he does.

the old speed stuff is overrated. Thames(vs righties) or Santana and their high OBP are better candidates than Arcia, barring a marked improvement from Arcia.


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#7

Posted: January 04, 2018, 4:39 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
If Walker comes back he'd be a good lead off guy, works the count and will have a good OBP. If Sogard can replicate anything close to what he did last year he would too, but I doubt it. Of course Villar if he returns to form too. My guess is if Walker isn't back then Villar will get vast majority of starts at 2B and leadoff to start the year and see how he does.

the old speed stuff is overrated. Thames(vs righties) or Santana and their high OBP are better candidates than Arcia, barring a marked improvement from Arcia.

These two statements pretty much sum up what I anticipate occurring in 2018. I very much would welcome Walker back and would hope he would lead off if he is. However, if he isn't, I would imagine the Brewers give Villar every opportunity in the world (or until May 1) to take back his leadoff role.


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#8

Posted: January 04, 2018, 4:59 PM Post
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Trade for Yelich or Hernandez. Sign Cain. All three are good options at the leadoff.


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#9

Posted: January 04, 2018, 5:11 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Brew4U said:
Trade for Yelich or Hernandez. Sign Cain. All three are good options at the leadoff.


I still don't advocate for trading for Yelich, but a lineup of Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Thames, Pina, 2b, Arcia would be really good. Could be even better if you sign walker and insert in front of Braun. The problem is it would be expensive in prospects and payroll $, wouldn't address pitching, and might not be enough. Plus we lose out on the upside of Brinson/Phillips.


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#10

Posted: January 04, 2018, 8:51 PM Post
Posts: 375
Warning Track Power said:
tmwiese55 said:
If Walker comes back he'd be a good lead off guy, works the count and will have a good OBP. If Sogard can replicate anything close to what he did last year he would too, but I doubt it. Of course Villar if he returns to form too. My guess is if Walker isn't back then Villar will get vast majority of starts at 2B and leadoff to start the year and see how he does.

the old speed stuff is overrated. Thames(vs righties) or Santana and their high OBP are better candidates than Arcia, barring a marked improvement from Arcia.

These two statements pretty much sum up what I anticipate occurring in 2018. I very much would welcome Walker back and would hope he would lead off if he is. However, if he isn't, I would imagine the Brewers give Villar every opportunity in the world (or until May 1) to take back his leadoff role.


But remember for some ungodly reason Counsell had Walker but didn’t lead him off


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#11

Posted: January 04, 2018, 9:04 PM Post
Posts: 415
Whoever man's center will be the leadoff hitter.


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#12

Posted: January 04, 2018, 9:31 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Trade for Yelich or Hernandez. Sign Cain. All three are good options at the leadoff.


I’d agree that if they’re intent on realsistically contending, although 2 of those options being OF and the other being most likely used to get young pitching, I’m not sure how they’d fit without other corresponding moves.

They would all make better lead off options though


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#13

Posted: January 05, 2018, 4:59 AM Post
Posts: 396
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I would assume Villar will be given first crack at it if he wins the 2B job. He was quite dynamic in that role in 2016. Otherwise, Sogard would likely be the guy if he wins the 2B job. If not those two, I imagine either Phillips or Brinson will be the guy, assuming that Broxton is dealt. While not ideal, Arcia also has the speed and on-base ability to be a top-of-the-order table setter. Of course, that ability hasn't been totally realized yet. I think any of those is a better option than Thames or Santana in the lead-off spot. Those guys are run producers, and need to be stationed lower in the line-up.


Arcia might turn into a good leadoff hitter at some point, but I've never understood the clamour during the season and offseason from some to have him leadoff. .324 OBP and 14(/21) SB doesn't exactly scream ideal leadoff hitter to me. Nor does the 89 OPS+. The leadoff hitter gets the most plate appearances, something like 120+ more than the #8 hitter over the course of the season. It should be one of your best hitters leading off. If not that, then OBP should be the priority above all else; it's the only time during a game where you know for sure the batting order in an innning, and know for sure who's leading off. Make the most of that by having him get on base.

Anyway, I agree that Villar/Sogard will get the first crack at it. 2016 Villar and 2017 Sogard are both good leadoff options, but the other iterations of them aren't so let's see which one we get.


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#14

Posted: January 05, 2018, 8:03 AM Post
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How about Braun? As he's getting older, maybe he changes his approach a little and focuses more on OBP and less on power?

But I don't care very much who it is in 2017. We'll have a better idea for 2018 after a full season of Phillips, Brinson another full season of Arcia. Also, still a very open question who will be starting at 2B in 2017, let alone 2018. (I do kind of like the concept of Arcia at 6 spot though, due to his low k rate. Nice fit if the big bats in front of him get IBB, fail to drive in the runs, etc.)


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Offline  Re: Lead Off Hitter
#15

Posted: January 05, 2018, 8:18 AM Post
Posts: 11455
Lathund said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I would assume Villar will be given first crack at it if he wins the 2B job. He was quite dynamic in that role in 2016. Otherwise, Sogard would likely be the guy if he wins the 2B job. If not those two, I imagine either Phillips or Brinson will be the guy, assuming that Broxton is dealt. While not ideal, Arcia also has the speed and on-base ability to be a top-of-the-order table setter. Of course, that ability hasn't been totally realized yet. I think any of those is a better option than Thames or Santana in the lead-off spot. Those guys are run producers, and need to be stationed lower in the line-up.


Arcia might turn into a good leadoff hitter at some point, but I've never understood the clamour during the season and offseason from some to have him leadoff. .324 OBP and 14(/21) SB doesn't exactly scream ideal leadoff hitter to me. Nor does the 89 OPS+. The leadoff hitter gets the most plate appearances, something like 120+ more than the #8 hitter over the course of the season. It should be one of your best hitters leading off. If not that, then OBP should be the priority above all else; it's the only time during a game where you know for sure the batting order in an innning, and know for sure who's leading off. Make the most of that by having him get on base.

Anyway, I agree that Villar/Sogard will get the first crack at it. 2016 Villar and 2017 Sogard are both good leadoff options, but the other iterations of them aren't so let's see which one we get.


Villar started one game at 2B in September and that was the finale that was meaningless. Walker started 14, Perez started 7, and Sogard started 6. Villar has an uphill battle just making the team even if Walker doesn't return because a Sogard/Perez platoon isn't a bad option. Sogard or Walker leads off vs. RHP. Against LHP, whoever is in CF, likely either Brinson or Cain will lead off.


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Offline  Re: Lead Off Hitter
#16

Posted: January 05, 2018, 8:40 AM Post
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Since this is discussing the MLB lead-off hitter for 2018, and people are discussing options from our current roster, I moved this from the Transactions forum to the Major Leauge forum.


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#17

Posted: January 05, 2018, 9:55 AM Post
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Lathund said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I would assume Villar will be given first crack at it if he wins the 2B job. He was quite dynamic in that role in 2016. Otherwise, Sogard would likely be the guy if he wins the 2B job. If not those two, I imagine either Phillips or Brinson will be the guy, assuming that Broxton is dealt. While not ideal, Arcia also has the speed and on-base ability to be a top-of-the-order table setter. Of course, that ability hasn't been totally realized yet. I think any of those is a better option than Thames or Santana in the lead-off spot. Those guys are run producers, and need to be stationed lower in the line-up.


Arcia might turn into a good leadoff hitter at some point, but I've never understood the clamour during the season and offseason from some to have him leadoff. .324 OBP and 14(/21) SB doesn't exactly scream ideal leadoff hitter to me. Nor does the 89 OPS+. The leadoff hitter gets the most plate appearances, something like 120+ more than the #8 hitter over the course of the season. It should be one of your best hitters leading off. If not that, then OBP should be the priority above all else; it's the only time during a game where you know for sure the batting order in an innning, and know for sure who's leading off. Make the most of that by having him get on base.

Anyway, I agree that Villar/Sogard will get the first crack at it. 2016 Villar and 2017 Sogard are both good leadoff options, but the other iterations of them aren't so let's see which one we get.


Gotta question the 14/21 SB rate being the #8 hitter ahead of the pitcher. How many may have been result of bunt/run failure?

Another thing is he posted the 89+ in his 22year old season. A line of .277/.324 with an 18% K rate ahead of that pitcher.
In some thoughts he's a first pitch swinger with some modest pop. The extra PAs would at last season's rate be 20HRs. Jumping on a pitcher in the 1st inning before warmed up could be good for a contact hitter. There's also the chance he betters by say 5-8 percent with growth and the reward of having a #2 hitter behind him vs. a pitcher. That's a .290-.299/.340-.349/.427-440 slash line.

I've suggested putting Braun as lead off passing the #3 torch to Santana's bat. Shaw to #4. Then you find your #2 hitter (Thames?/Villar?/Phillips?) playing out that Lefty split CC employed often last season while having a more consistent #1 OBP hitter atop the order. Braun's splits were down on higher leverage/men on base than in the past. May be better giving him an open basepaths and let him hit freely more to opposite field/contact hitting vs power stroke pulling. Just my thought. Braun was really bad with 2 men or more on base. 6 for 52 last season.


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Offline  Re: Lead Off Hitter
#18

Posted: January 05, 2018, 11:50 AM Post
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I guess I am just a big optimist here, but I am praying Villar is a player closer to his 16' self than 17' self and we can use him in the leadoff spot again. He was so good there in 16'. Having something close to that again in 18' would be tremendous.

Formerly BrewCrewIn2004

@IgnitorKid


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Offline  Re: Lead Off Hitter
#19

Posted: January 05, 2018, 11:53 AM Post
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Rehashing what others have said, but boiling it down to simplicity: Whomever is at 2B is probably has the first shot.


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#20

Posted: January 05, 2018, 12:02 PM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-new-leadoff-hitters-dont-need-to-be-speed-demons/

This is not your father's batting lineup...


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