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Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto

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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 13, 2019, 10:53 PM Post
Posts: 4462
turborickey said:

Unlikely, but totally possible.

The crown jewel of that trade, Lewis Brinson, looks like the only bust of the bunch.


When the other 3 prospects have a total of 1 start in MLB between them, there's just no way of knowing that. Brinson looks to be the only bust because thus far he's been the only one to have a sustained MLB opportunity - and he fell on his face to start his MLB career. There just as much chance of Brinson having the best career of the three and Diaz, Harrison, Yamamoto all amount to nothing more than a footnote on Christian Yelich's Wikipedia page referencing how in the world the Brewers acquired him.


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 13, 2019, 11:01 PM Post
Posts: 18514
jerichoholicninja said:
Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?


To call Yelich a cheapish All-Star really understates his value. There are 68 All-Stars in baseball every year, Yelich is at the very upper echelon of those players. Yelich is one of the top 2-3 players in baseball. He was the league MVP last year and is having an even better year this year. He will very likely go down as one of the greatest Brewers in franchise history. So you're not comparing those 4 players to a cheapish All-Star, you're comparing them to a cheapish MVP.

And secondly, we are so far away from those 4 being even replacement level MLB players, much less above average MLB regulars. (And I realize you didn't say otherwise). Harrison and Diaz have had nice seasons so far after both disappointing in 2018 in the minors. Yamamoto has had one career MLB start, Harrison and Diaz have never even stepped out onto an MLB field. MLB is littered with pitchers who dazzled in a debut and then fizzled, and littered with players who performed at a high level in the minors but couldn't translate that to the majors (Lewis Brinson is one of those guys, so far). The odds of all four turning into above average MLB regulars is incredibly remote. Not impossible, but very, very remote. Just go back to our top 4 prospects from 4, 5 years ago and see how many of them turned out to be above average MLB regulars.

I am not saying the Marlins did poorly in this trade, and I have no reason not to hope that all four do well in Miami. There doesn't have to be a loser in the trade. But I mean, comparing Christian Yelich to the likely trajectory of our franchise on holding the 4 prospects instead, it's not even close. We won a division title last year and came within one game of the World Series. We are highly likely to have back to back playoff appearances for the first time in ...ever? I don't know. We have a very good chance of being a perennial playoff team for the next 3-4 seasons, minimum. All of those things have incredible value to our franchise, and there's no way we're even sniffing the playoffs right now much less competing for the NL if the Yelich trade never happens. And barring the highly unlikely scenario in which one of the 4 traded to Miami turns into a star level player as well, we probably aren't getting there anytime in the next few years with the 4 we dealt.


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 8:26 AM Post
Posts: 1056
Not all trades are going to be like the Gomez/Fiers trade. Like others have said, it takes value to get value. I think Yelich has a range of 30-45 WAR, meaning needing 7-11 WAR from the 4 prospects over their current contract. I think we will get more WAR from Yelich than the Marlins get from the 4, but I think it won't be that far away.


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 9:29 AM Post
Posts: 11476
stalton said:
Not all trades are going to be like the Gomez/Fiers trade. Like others have said, it takes value to get value. I think Yelich has a range of 30-45 WAR, meaning needing 7-11 WAR from the 4 prospects over their current contract. I think we will get more WAR from Yelich than the Marlins get from the 4, but I think it won't be that far away.


That really isn't accurate though because one player getting 40 WAR doesn't equal four players collectively getting that. Yearly we could have three guys at league minimum put up 1-1.5 WAR if we wanted to go with what Yelich does. Add that into the equation and Yelich (plus three guys) is probably worth more like 70 WAR. This doesn't take into consideration those four guys after extensions/arbitration are likely to cost more than Yelich if they are all relevant enough to garner 40 WAR together, maybe even exponentially more for the same production Yelich gave us.

Realistically to outperform Yelich, and the three guys we pair up with him, those four players will need nearly double the figure you listed. Think about if all those players became even solid starters and went through the entire arbitration system. Each would cost $8mil+ by the end. That $32mil in one year is already half of what we will pay Yelich over his entire 5 year contract.

It is way to complicated and impossible to really predict what it will take for them to be of similar value in a statistical/financial sense, but it would take way more than 40 WAR of production. End of the day though I think we got what we wanted (well way more) and what those players become (assuming none become stars) is woefully irrelevant to us. Good chance Yelich doesn't transform into a bonifide star in Miami so what he does he is pretty irrelevant to them. They just need those players to provide value to them now.


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 10:14 AM Post
Posts: 1114
One team winning a trade doesn't mean the other team lost. I think this could turn out to be a trade in which both teams end up winning. If Diaz becomes a borderline AS at 2b (I think he can be that), Yamamoto is a steady #3-4 SP going forward, and Harrison OR Brinson become everyday CF with at least passable offense (all of which I think are quite possible), it is hard to say that Marlins aren't better off.

Christian Yelich in Miami wasn't Christian Yelich in Milwaukee. There's no guaranteeing that he would become what he is had he stayed there. And even if he had, he's far more valuable to a contending team like Milwaukee than a rebuilding franchise like Miami.


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 11:05 AM Post
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Given how skeptical people were of Hiura (a much higher rated prospect than any of Diaz, Yamamoto, Harrison) I find it pretty amusing that suddenly all three are a shoo-in to be significant MLB contributors. I'd bet on all 4 combined prospects not reaching 25 career WAR. It's way to early to be throwing around some of the recent comments off of one Jordan Yamamoto start. The Brewers almost assuredly fleeced the Marlins. Not because they didn't give up quality prospects but because no one thought Yelich was going to turn into prime Barry Bonds.


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 11:08 AM Post
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PlayerHader said:
One team winning a trade doesn't mean the other team lost. I think this could turn out to be a trade in which both teams end up winning. If Diaz becomes a borderline AS at 2b (I think he can be that), Yamamoto is a steady #3-4 SP going forward, and Harrison OR Brinson become everyday CF with at least passable offense (all of which I think are quite possible), it is hard to say that Marlins aren't better off.

Christian Yelich in Miami wasn't Christian Yelich in Milwaukee. There's no guaranteeing that he would become what he is had he stayed there. And even if he had, he's far more valuable to a contending team like Milwaukee than a rebuilding franchise like Miami.


Yes, when you make a 4-1 trade, both teams can win. The brewers got what they wanted (needed) and hopefully the Marlins can too. I am not worried at this given time about any prospect we gave up. I won't freak out on one start from Jordan, since MLB debuts always seem to go like his or be a disaster.


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 11:24 AM Post
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Both Diaz and Harrison have pretty severe home/road splits (they are both way better at home). Odd since the PCL is a hitter's league and New Orleans is probably the least hitter-friendly park.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 11:25 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
Given how skeptical people were of Hiura (a much higher rated prospect than any of Diaz, Yamamoto, Harrison) I find it pretty amusing that suddenly all three are a shoo-in to be significant MLB contributors. I'd bet on all 4 combined prospects not reaching 25 career WAR. It's way to early to be throwing around some of the recent comments off of one Jordan Yamamoto start. The Brewers almost assuredly fleeced the Marlins. Not because they didn't give up quality prospects but because no one thought Yelich was going to turn into prime Barry Bonds.



Hardly anyone was skeptical of Hiura, and no one thinks those three are shoo-ins to be anything.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 11:28 AM Post
Posts: 4421
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Given how skeptical people were of Hiura (a much higher rated prospect than any of Diaz, Yamamoto, Harrison) I find it pretty amusing that suddenly all three are a shoo-in to be significant MLB contributors. I'd bet on all 4 combined prospects not reaching 25 career WAR. It's way to early to be throwing around some of the recent comments off of one Jordan Yamamoto start. The Brewers almost assuredly fleeced the Marlins. Not because they didn't give up quality prospects but because no one thought Yelich was going to turn into prime Barry Bonds.


Even if they don't it's still doesn't mean it was a mistake to trade Yelich for them. Yelich's only value to them was as trade bait. He was not going to help them win anything. So if they get any positive value down the road when they have a chance to win was better to get the lesser total talent than to keep the greater overall talent at a time it couldn't help them.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 11:30 AM Post
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PlayerHader said:
One team winning a trade doesn't mean the other team lost.


I think Doug Melvin publically said something to this effect during his tenure. I think 'winning a trade' is something fans are bent on quantifying, but I don't think front offices are. They probably just don't want to end up having it look like a robbery down the line.


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 14, 2019, 2:53 PM Post
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Hopefully this yamamoto starts let's Miami feel comfortable trading with us again.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 17, 2019, 7:40 AM Post
Posts: 11476
Christian Yelich - Miami Marlins - 643 Games - 59 HRs

Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers - 211 Games - 62 HRs


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 17, 2019, 2:05 PM Post
Posts: 4421
MrTPlush said:
Christian Yelich - Miami Marlins - 643 Games - 59 HRs

Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers - 211 Games - 62 HRs


This is something I've thought about for a while now. How much credit/blame goes to the new club for that change? Miami might just not have the same level of scouting, coaching or analytics the Brewers have so the players involved might not perform the same as if they had been with the original club. Would Brinson have struggled the same here as he has there for example? That to me is the one thing we can't know when assessing the success of a trade. Obviously Miami has had success in developing top talent players but how much success has the Jeter era really had?

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 17, 2019, 2:17 PM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
MrTPlush said:
Christian Yelich - Miami Marlins - 643 Games - 59 HRs

Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers - 211 Games - 62 HRs


This is something I've thought about for a while now. How much credit/blame goes to the new club for that change? Miami might just not have the same level of scouting, coaching or analytics the Brewers have so the players involved might not perform the same as if they had been with the original club. Would Brinson have struggled the same here as he has there for example? That to me is the one thing we can't know when assessing the success of a trade. Obviously Miami has had success in developing top talent players but how much success has the Jeter era really had?


I don't think this had anything to do with Milwaukee vs Miami, I believe the story came out that he was tinkering with his batting stance on his own around the All Star break last year, and started bending his legs more like how he hit back in HS, and was able to generate some more power with it.


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 17, 2019, 2:22 PM Post
Posts: 11476
Thurston Fluff said:
MrTPlush said:
Christian Yelich - Miami Marlins - 643 Games - 59 HRs

Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers - 211 Games - 62 HRs


This is something I've thought about for a while now. How much credit/blame goes to the new club for that change? Miami might just not have the same level of scouting, coaching or analytics the Brewers have so the players involved might not perform the same as if they had been with the original club. Would Brinson have struggled the same here as he has there for example? That to me is the one thing we can't know when assessing the success of a trade. Obviously Miami has had success in developing top talent players but how much success has the Jeter era really had?


Specifically with Yelich it is important to note he really started tinkering with his swing/stance when he came over here because he was in a new park (and division foe parks) that offered a lot more power potential for him. Increasing his launch angle and power would probably not have had much in the way of insane results in Marlin's Park. I am not sure how much the Brewers truly had to do with that. The odds they were trying to toy with Yelich's batting is really unlikely considering he was already an AS level player etc.

Regarding Brinson...yah I think he would have sucked here too.


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 17, 2019, 2:46 PM Post
Posts: 4421
Didn't Yelich specifically say he wasn't going to tinker with his swing? From an article on Brew crew ball I read he actually hasn't changed his swing as much as the timing of his swing. That could just be coincidence or it could be something the Brewers do that spotted it that Miami doesn't. I do think though that there has to be something to all this new stuff the Brewers are doing that changed from what they used to do. Or what other teams who aren't having as much success do.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 17, 2019, 11:22 PM Post
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homer said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Given how skeptical people were of Hiura (a much higher rated prospect than any of Diaz, Yamamoto, Harrison) I find it pretty amusing that suddenly all three are a shoo-in to be significant MLB contributors. I'd bet on all 4 combined prospects not reaching 25 career WAR. It's way to early to be throwing around some of the recent comments off of one Jordan Yamamoto start. The Brewers almost assuredly fleeced the Marlins. Not because they didn't give up quality prospects but because no one thought Yelich was going to turn into prime Barry Bonds.



Hardly anyone was skeptical of Hiura, and no one thinks those three are shoo-ins to be anything.



That was pretty much what I was thinking. Who are all the people who are skeptical of Hiura? The ONLY questions I saw about him was if he would rake this year or if he would start raking next year. Pretty much everyone I saw thought he'd develop into a middle of the order bat at 2nd.

I still like Brinson for the record. I said at the time of the trade and I still believe he's the type of guy who's going to take a long time to develop, similar to how it took Gomez a while to figure out MLB pitching. The issue is his confidence. And probably moving on to a team like the Orioles or another bad team that didn't trade away the guy who turned into Mike Trout for him.

I'd imagine Marlins fans don't particularly like seeing Brinson's mug on the screen hitting .185 while Yelly wins an MVP and then gets better. Someone should ask all 5 of them what they think about Brinson.


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Online  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 19, 2019, 6:15 AM Post
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Well, Yamamoto's terrific start to his MLB career ought to quiet the "Brewers fleeced the Marlins so now they won't trade with us" farce that has popped up here a time or two.


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Offline  Re: Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto
Posted: June 19, 2019, 7:20 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Well, Yamamoto's terrific start to his MLB career ought to quiet the "Brewers fleeced the Marlins so now they won't trade with us" farce that has popped up here a time or two.

I think there are varying degrees of that theory. I would certainly never say MLB team X won’t trade with team Y, and I can’t think of any circumstances which would lead to that type of firm stance. I do think it is plausible that a front office would feel some pressure to “win the trade” if they are going to do repeat business with the team they just shipped away the league MVP to a year earlier, especially if it involves more high profile players. Maybe that thought is indeed a little out there and all of the executives now are able to robotically value players with zero consideration towards past results (not trying to be snide, this very well could be the case), but I also don’t think it shouldn’t be completely dismissed that the human element could seep into the back of their minds while evaluating offers from multiple teams. Ultimately are they most likely going to take what they deem is the best offer regardless of this history? I would assume yes.

It is also probably a little premature to make any definitive conclusions regarding any of the players involved in the trade, including Yamamoto after two (very impressive) MLB starts. I genuinely hope Yamamoto continues his success, and would be perfectly fine with it being a trade which works out well for both sides over the long run.


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