LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next  [ 75 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)

Author Message
Offline  Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#1

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:03 PM Post
Posts: 7
Really?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#2

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:04 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 7101
Is this after our Cain and Yelich acquisitions?

Must be because our rotation isn't much better than average as it sits, but 77 wins? Riiiiight...


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#3

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:05 PM Post
Posts: 1938
Location: New Berlin, WI
Usually what happens when you win 86 games, cut loose dead weight and add a few stars, is you regress to 77 wins. I've trashed how terrible projections are enough that I won't do it again here, but 77 wins is unlikely to say the least.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#4

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:09 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1323
Most of the folks at fangraphs acknowledge that their projections are conservative. There was an article that came out yesterday about how the Brewers are banking on breakout pitchers, without long track records of success, and how models generally don't like that approach because they rely on larger sets of data.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#5

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:15 PM Post
Posts: 360
Most Brewers players have a very limited track record in the majors, and several had career years in 2017. While humans, with context, can say that at least some of those breakout performances are in fact sustainable, a stats-only projection cannot. So such a projection system will not rate those players very highly, and create some rather absurd results. Chase Anderson isn't all of a sudden an ace, but it's unlikely that he'll post an ERA/FIP significantly worse than his career numbers. Likewise with Zach Davies.

As mentioned before, even Fangraphs themselves say the model is likely too harsh on the Brewers, and that ZiPS (Which will be added to the projections soon, once all teams are done) will be more favourable. There's definitely a time and place for data-based projections, as they can do certain things better than our subjective opinions. But there are also areas where they come up short, which I hope this will be an example of.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#6

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:16 PM Post
Posts: 7486
Location: Kenosha, WI
MillerParkSouth said:
There was an article that came out yesterday about how the Brewers are banking on breakout pitchers, without long track records of success, and how models generally don't like that approach because they rely on larger sets of data.


THIS^

Every time these projections come out people get a little up in arms...whether for the team in general or for a specific player. They depend on data and data only. If you have young unproven players and/or players with little track record your projection will be trash(most likely).

77 wins would not suprise me at all though. We have lots of regression candidates, especially pitchers. We have already lost Nelson for a half season and he may not be that good upon returning. If Anderson also regresses there goes our #2 pitcher production we were getting. I definitely think we finish above .500, but you never know and a projection system will not be very bullish on this team.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#7

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:22 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 8828
I'll take the under. The devil(fangraphs) at it again.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#8

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:31 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 8130
I think that same article said they'd be revising that model up a few notches.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#9

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:38 PM Post
Posts: 6725
This is just a forecast, none are perfect. Although this is what I use, and it has proven to be extremely accurate. Still crunching the numbers for the 2018 season.

Image


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#10

Posted: January 30, 2018, 1:58 PM Post
Posts: 1938
Location: New Berlin, WI
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/ ... ewers.html

A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more...

In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless.

Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line.

Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical.

Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said.

Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive.

Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!!

These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible.

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#11

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:11 PM Post
Posts: 23
I'm just waiting for the annual SI Baseball preview where we are picked dead last every year.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#12

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:13 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2204
I believe prediction models would be hard pressed to have a win total much higher than that because of our starting pitching.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#13

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:21 PM Post
Posts: 2941
If it's starting pitching we are focused on, is the cubs rotation this minute actually that much better?

Also, do the fangraphs projections actually add up to the total amount of wins and losses across all of mlb and based on individual teams schedules? Seems like they always tend to biased towards low win totals...


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#14

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:24 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1323
Quintana and Hendricks are quite a bit better than any of our pitchers, so yes.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#15

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:33 PM Post
Posts: 2941
Meh, depends what you mean by quite a bit...they also have no rotation depth and don't have someone like Nelson who could give their rotation a boost midseason without having to make a trade.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#16

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:36 PM Post
Posts: 1938
Location: New Berlin, WI
Fear The Chorizo said:
Meh, depends what you mean by quite a bit...they also have no rotation depth and don't have someone like Nelson who could give their rotation a boost midseason without having to make a trade.


The Cubs have some serious 2017 Giants potential. Very little room for injury/performance issues.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#17

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:38 PM Post
Posts: 1938
Location: New Berlin, WI
MillerParkSouth said:
Quintana and Hendricks are quite a bit better than any of our pitchers, so yes.


If Hendricks is still throwing 86 mph this season, he's going to get shelled to the point they might consider putting safety netting in front of the bleachers.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#18

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:41 PM Post
Posts: 3353
It really comes down to pitching. 77 wins is a low estimate especially with the improved offense and defense with the additions of Cain & Yelich. But we are beginning the season without Jimmy Nelson, and our starting rotation as it stands today might include Gallardo.

We really need to add a TOR pitcher. Otherwise we look a lot like the 2012 Brewers: lots of hitting, not much pitching, and 83 wins

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#19

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:45 PM Post
Posts: 1490
Our analytics >>>> their analytics

Hated the squad last year. Hated the rotation, hated santana thames. Still do. Our defense is already a lot better and all of our pitchers will get worse. It's kinda funny. They have articles pointing to chacin and gallardo being arms who can break the metrics, then value them poorly.

Sure last year Anderson was amazing (and suter picked up where he left off for a bit). Sure nelson did something no one expected. Davies defied logic again. Knebel was a monster. To assume every upswing is a fluke comes off as a bitter rival fans take. (I know they don't have bias)

They've had articles from years ago that stated certain numbers pointed to santana having a chance to explode up to star level but then the wins projection doesn't acknowledge that.

I'm not saying its bs on their part. They even believe their numbers are low on mke. However, on paper stearns is building the team he wants to build, and on the same paper FG is seeing numbers that don't make sense to them. I'm just going to guess our analytics group is ahead of them by a bit.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#20

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:45 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 17470
KeithStone53151 said:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/poll-how-good-are-the-brewers.html

A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more...

In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless.

Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line.

Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical.

Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said.

Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive.

Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!!

These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible.

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections


You can do this with literally every team.

Ian Happ hit .253/.328/.514 last year as a 22/23 year old and they have him at .249/.320/.462.

Willson Conteras hit .276/.356/.499 last year for over 3 WAR and they have him at .271/.346/.465 with 2.8 WAR in 2018.

Javier Baez has had 2.7 and 2.2 WAR the past two seasons and they have him at 1.9 WAR in 2018.

They don't have 23 year old Albert Almora Jr. improving at all.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next  [ 75 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bombers, MadThinker88, Roderick, YelichPosse and 24 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test