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Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)

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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#21

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:54 PM Post
Posts: 1996
Location: New Berlin, WI
trwi7 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/poll-how-good-are-the-brewers.html

A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more...

In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless.

Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line.

Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical.

Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said.

Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive.

Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!!

These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible.

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections


You can do this with literally every team.

Ian Happ hit .253/.328/.514 last year as a 22/23 year old and they have him at .249/.320/.462.

Willson Conteras hit .276/.356/.499 last year for over 3 WAR and they have him at .271/.346/.465 with 2.8 WAR in 2018.

Javier Baez has had 2.7 and 2.2 WAR the past two seasons and they have him at 1.9 WAR in 2018.

They don't have 23 year old Albert Almora Jr. improving at all.


I don't see Happ with 514 slugging again but overall he probably remains about that OPS. Baez at 1.9 WAR is probably stupid, Contreras should probably project to improve a touch versus regress, I don't think Almora is all that good of a player so I'll ignore that one. But that's kind of my point, and this isn't unique to the Brewers, projections are garbage across the board on young players...to the point that they might has well have drawn numbers from a hat. You almost have to take every one of them and make significant adjustments to get to anything remotely realistic.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#22

Posted: January 30, 2018, 2:58 PM Post
Posts: 1490
As for pitching...

We logged 380.1 ip last year by guys who had an era above 4.8. Do we have 1 on our current roster? 1 guy who you expect to be higher than 4.8 era?

That's 42 games worth of innings.

Even as is... anderson davies chacin woodruff... gallardo guerra wilkerson
Knebel hader albers logan barnes jeffress suter... with williams ramirez kicking it in AAA.

We can regress in areas as long as the bottom isnt dreadful to the same level.

Not to mention I did a rumidial charting of k per game bb per game and the magic number for this team was 10k or less, 3 or more bb. In those game regardless of all variables we were 10 games over 500 and this was after the post all star break implosion where we were 2 games over 500 I believe. We improved the defense, cut ks, added bbs.

This teams lacking some elite arm talent, no doubt about it. Howver this teams getting much more solid across the board which makes it harder and harder to beat. It almost feels attrition based. Not going to dominate often, but will make teams beat you game after game. With metrics and stability in our favor.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#23

Posted: January 30, 2018, 3:13 PM Post
Posts: 2952
In looking closer at how the projections are broken down for the Brewers, I think they are struggling with what certain players' and pitchers' roles will actually be for 2018...also, they still have the Pirates ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central standings.

Pitching:
If healthy, Hader will pitch a ton more than the projected 55 IP
Guys like Webb and Drake are extremely unlikely to pitch 40IP each in 2018
Brent Suter will not pitch around 150IP for this roster, no matter how many supposed rotation holes they currently have
Their entire starting rotation is apparently a 5.0 ERA staff, even though most of the projected starting 5 have career ERAs under 4, with the exception being Woodruff's partial 2017.

Position Players - just to name a couple:
- Cain's production will apparently take a 50% WAR reduction by playing 1/2 his games in a much more hitter and fielder-friendly ballpark.
- Ryan Braun is apparently the current roster's pinch hitter/4th OF option based on the projected # of plate appearances
- for the DH position, Fangraphs factors in 300 plate appearances for the Brewers - that's conservatively 60 games' worth of ABs for a DH. Problem with that projection is that the Brewers play nowhere near 60 road interleague games in AL parks.

I'm sure Fangraphs tries to factor in actual opponents on the 2018 schedule and where these games are played with these projections, but enough stinks about it just by looking at 1 teams issues for me to put pretty much no weight in what they say two months before opening day, particularly when rosters are in flux throughout MLB right now.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#24

Posted: January 30, 2018, 3:22 PM Post
Posts: 3353
Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80, and the jury is still out on Woodruff.

Meanwhile there are pretty big question marks about Barnes, Jeffress, and to a lesser degree Albers.

Would I be shocked if Knebel turned out to be a "one year wonder"? Not entirely shocked, no...

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#25

Posted: January 30, 2018, 3:22 PM Post
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I don't think anyone saw Villar regressing like he did. It happens sometimes.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#26

Posted: January 30, 2018, 3:24 PM Post
Posts: 2952
Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80, and the jury is still out on Woodruff.

Does the same go for Anderson, Davies, and Chacin? Fangraph thinks so, and those 3 are getting WAY more IP than Gallardo and Guerra will be in the rotation...


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#27

Posted: January 30, 2018, 3:25 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80.


That's assuming either of them pitches an inning for the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#28

Posted: January 30, 2018, 3:28 PM Post
Posts: 1490
3and2Fastball said:
Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80, and the jury is still out on Woodruff.

Meanwhile there are pretty big question marks about Barnes, Jeffress, and to a lesser degree Albers.

Would I be shocked if Knebel turned out to be a "one year wonder"? Not entirely shocked, no...


As is gallardo and Guerra should be throwing no more than 130 ip combined. Barnes jeffress sure. But barnes is the 6th arm now. Not set up. Jeffress just needs to be the guy he was in mke last year and he's fine.

1 corbin odorizzi type add and you can absolutely ignore gallardo guerra as concerns.

Even as is I dont see anything close to 380 inning over 4.8. Helps protect regressions.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#29

Posted: January 30, 2018, 4:35 PM Post
Posts: 834
Location: Ohio
I recall on 1 of the podcasts the projections are still based on the STEAMER process which is much more conservative. The ZIPS projections will be folded in during spring training IIRC.

While searching for other items I noticed the Sporting News website had an article (in free content) comparing the Cubs/ Cardinals/ Brewers position by position

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/ml ... 9cg76y4665


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Online  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#30

Posted: January 30, 2018, 5:02 PM Post
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I also mentioned this in another thread, but MadThinker is correct. The Effectively Wild podcast from last Saturday confirmed that currently the Brewers Fangraphs projection is based solely on Steamer, and that nothing from ZiPS has been factored in thus far. The two projection systems are weighted 50/50, but ZiPS doesn’t get added until late in the off-season. They said ZiPS is higher on the Brewers than Steamer and the Brewers projection will improve when the ZiPS data is eventually applied.

So it would be best to wait and see the final projections before getting too overly excited.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#31

Posted: January 30, 2018, 6:34 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Usually what happens when you win 86 games, cut loose dead weight and add a few stars, is you regress to 77 wins. I've trashed how terrible projections are enough that I won't do it again here, but 77 wins is unlikely to say the least.

RE: projections. All projections are based on models. There is an old saying in market research: "All models are wrong but some are useful."


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#32

Posted: January 30, 2018, 6:57 PM Post
Posts: 3409
KeithStone53151 said:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/poll-how-good-are-the-brewers.html

A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more...

In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless.

Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line.

Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical.

Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said.

Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive.

Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!!

These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible.

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections


Suter's ERA in 2017 was 3.42.

Yeah, he'll be over 1.5 runs worse in that stat. [rolling eyes]


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#33

Posted: January 30, 2018, 7:42 PM Post
Posts: 7531
Location: Kenosha, WI
Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#34

Posted: January 30, 2018, 8:20 PM Post
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STEAMER is very pessimistic about most pitchers (except for the ones it randomly likes), and looking at this rotation projections of course we would be a sub-80 win team. As some comparators, STEAMER projected ERAs for some top free agents:

Darvish, 3.82
Arrieta, 4.20
Cobb, 4.41
Lynn, 4.67

It's a very hitter-friendly system.

I don't fully understand why a reputable site like FanGraphs posts team-based win projections. Using an engine to project anything other than individual player rate stats seems worthless to me.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#35

Posted: January 30, 2018, 8:41 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.


If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#36

Posted: January 30, 2018, 8:50 PM Post
Posts: 11365
SRB said:
STEAMER is very pessimistic about most pitchers (except for the ones it randomly likes), and looking at this rotation projections of course we would be a sub-80 win team. As some comparators, STEAMER projected ERAs for some top free agents:

Darvish, 3.82
Arrieta, 4.20
Cobb, 4.41
Lynn, 4.67

It's a very hitter-friendly system.

I don't fully understand why a reputable site like FanGraphs posts team-based win projections. Using an engine to project anything other than individual player rate stats seems worthless to me.


FanGraphs was underprojecting the Brewers win total all last season even as they were winning 86 games. They were projecting them to finish behind the Cardinals until about the last 10 days of the season.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#37

Posted: January 30, 2018, 10:59 PM Post
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Fake news.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#38

Posted: January 30, 2018, 11:03 PM Post
Posts: 7531
Location: Kenosha, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.


If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong.


Exactly. This is projecting our win total before the offseason is done. It assumes Suter will start in the rotation and even finish the entire year there(which is not happening even if he starts there). Can't really take it seriously.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#39

Posted: January 30, 2018, 11:09 PM Post
Posts: 1996
Location: New Berlin, WI
MrTPlush said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.


If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong.


Exactly. This is projecting our win total before the offseason is done. It assumes Suter will start in the rotation and even finish the entire year there(which is not happening even if he starts there). Can't really take it seriously.


When I initially looked at it I thought the projection was wild, but also...how are 140 innings of 4.8 ERA worth 1.2 WAR? On a decent team, I don't really want a guy pitching to a 4.8 ERA on the roster...much less throwing 140 innings before we pull the plug. That isn't an above replacement level caliber player in my opinion.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#40

Posted: January 31, 2018, 8:21 AM Post
Posts: 2952
This is projecting our win total before the offseason is done.

To be fair, it's projecting everyone's win total before the offseason is done, and they acknowledge issues with current projections even beyond their typical flaws/weaknesses due to data gaps and roster questions. It'll be interesting to see where they have the Brewers as opening day approaches, when their roster and everyday lineup has more clarity - and I'll likely take whatever that projection is and automatically add ~5 wins to it, since I feel the fangraphs' projection model tends to bias low towards teams built like the Brewers.

However, I think regardless of what baseball statisticians say, all team preseason projections are loosely based on perceptions of how good a team is supposed to be, and then individual player projection data gets skewed to better fit those perceptions. Teams heavy on young talent, with players that have a limited MLB history, or with a lot of aging veterans teetering on the regression cliff are more difficult to project, both from a "fangraphs" and a "crotchety old scout" methodology - that's why no matter how you look at and utilize data in baseball, a human element that's more than capable of being biased drives everything.


Last edited by Fear The Chorizo on January 31, 2018, 9:28 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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