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Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)

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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#41

Posted: January 31, 2018, 8:52 AM Post
Posts: 2447
KeithStone53151 said:
MillerParkSouth said:
Quintana and Hendricks are quite a bit better than any of our pitchers, so yes.


If Hendricks is still throwing 86 mph this season, he's going to get shelled to the point they might consider putting safety netting in front of the bleachers.


I am pretty sure he was doing that last year and did just fine. Some people think the Cubs have small margin for error, but I personally think they win the division going away.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#42

Posted: January 31, 2018, 9:01 AM Post
Posts: 7224
Location: Kenosha, WI
Just so everyone knows Fangraphs projects 300 PAs for a DH on our team. We have, what I counted, 20 games against AL teams. Our DH is going to be averaging 15 PAs a game.

Seems legit


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#43

Posted: January 31, 2018, 9:02 AM Post
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Maybe it was a mistype and they meant 87 wins.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#44

Posted: January 31, 2018, 9:25 AM Post
Posts: 2824
MrTPlush said:
Just so everyone knows Fangraphs projects 300 PAs for a DH on our team. We have, what I counted, 20 games against AL teams. Our DH is going to be averaging 15 PAs a game.

Seems legit


and only 10 of those games are played on the road at an AL stadium where there's actually a DH - so I guess 30 PAs a game?

perhaps the "DH" also counts for pinch hit opportunities, but one would think many of the pinch hit ABs in NL games would just be grouped wherever that hitter plays the field the next 1/2 inning -


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#45

Posted: January 31, 2018, 11:13 AM Post
Posts: 3368
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.


If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong.


Not necessarily.

Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.

I think it is safe to say the Brewers will keep whichever of Suter and Woodruff is performing better in their starts in the starting rotation. If it is Suter, Woodruff gets optioned to AAA. If it is Woodruff, Suter will likely move to the pen.

So, if Suter is getting 30 starts as a #5, given that he's posted a 3.42 ERA last year and a FIP of 3.75... that's pretty darn good.

A lot of things going wrong would have Gallardo and Guerra getting a fair bit of starts this season.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#46

Posted: January 31, 2018, 11:50 AM Post
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clancyphile said:
Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.


Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#47

Posted: January 31, 2018, 11:58 AM Post
Posts: 7224
Location: Kenosha, WI
Clancy I know you like Suter and all, but the Brewers did not make big time additions to have Suter have any type of rotation spot. He did well because teams weren’t used to him and the Brewers babied him in his starts. Outside of 3 or so occasions(none in his last 8 or so starts) did the Brewers let him finish 6 innings. We aren’t putting a guy in the rotation who throws 5 or less innings...ever.

He is not a guy you are giving 30 starts to...he shouldn’t even have 15 starts. He is a swing guy to help in injury situations for short periods of time. Nothing wrong with that...valuable role.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#48

Posted: January 31, 2018, 11:58 AM Post
Posts: 7224
Location: Kenosha, WI
Clancy I know you like Suter and all, but the Brewers did not make big time additions to have Suter have any type of rotation spot. He did well because teams weren’t used to him and the Brewers babied him in his starts. Outside of 3 or so occasions(none in his last 8 or so starts) did the Brewers let him finish 6 innings. We aren’t putting a guy in the rotation who throws 5 or less innings...ever.

He is not a guy you are giving 30 starts to...he shouldn’t even have 15 starts. He is a swing guy to help in injury situations for short periods of time. Nothing wrong with that...valuable role.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#49

Posted: January 31, 2018, 12:04 PM Post
Posts: 3368
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
clancyphile said:
Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.


Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.


We are still waiting to see how that starter comes (if the starter comes). Until then, I think it's prudent to assume nothing happens.

Is it a free agent? That creates one situation.

Is it a trade? If so, does that trade involve Davies, Woodruff, or both?


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#50

Posted: January 31, 2018, 4:13 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Just so everyone knows Fangraphs projects 300 PAs for a DH on our team. We have, what I counted, 20 games against AL teams. Our DH is going to be averaging 15 PAs a game.

Seems legit

Did you factor in the world series opportunities?(totally not putting this in blue even though I should)

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#51

Posted: January 31, 2018, 5:16 PM Post
Posts: 4124
How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections

I have been arguing for years not to take WAR seriously. Yet it is the single most used stat in baseball these days.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#52

Posted: January 31, 2018, 7:28 PM Post
Posts: 850
Location: Madison, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
clancyphile said:
Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.


Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.


If that was the Cubs rotation, we'd all be sitting here saying Anderson's last 1 1/2 year run was a fluke and, even if it wasn't, that the guy has never even gotten to 153 major league innings in a single season. That comment would be followed with the idea that the rest of the starters are #4's and #5's.

Still puzzled that the Brewers would make huge investments in outfielders, when the only real outfield problem was OBP out of centerfield and it was likely the richest talent area in the entire organization.

Pitching was better than the hitting last year and certainly got the job done, but I don't blame outsiders one bit for throwing a little doubt in the direction of the pitching staff.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#53

Posted: February 01, 2018, 10:04 AM Post
Posts: 3368
JosephC said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
clancyphile said:
Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.


Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.


If that was the Cubs rotation, we'd all be sitting here saying Anderson's last 1 1/2 year run was a fluke and, even if it wasn't, that the guy has never even gotten to 153 major league innings in a single season. That comment would be followed with the idea that the rest of the starters are #4's and #5's.

Still puzzled that the Brewers would make huge investments in outfielders, when the only real outfield problem was OBP out of centerfield and it was likely the richest talent area in the entire organization.

Pitching was better than the hitting last year and certainly got the job done, but I don't blame outsiders one bit for throwing a little doubt in the direction of the pitching staff.


That's what bugged me, too. I don't think RF or LF were "broken" between Santana, Braun, and a Phillips/Perez platoon as 4th OF.

Keeping both lines open - trading for Yelich and signing Cain - was prudent. But if the Yelich trade went through, why add Cain as well? Or if you got a deal with Cain, tell the Marlins, "Thanks, but no thanks" for the interest.

As to your point if the Cubs had this rotation...

I think that we as Brewers fans, DO oversell "our" guys a bit. We think of Jake Arietta as aging and on the downswing. We see them as not very deep and falling apart. Our guys are really good. Heck, we'd take Hernan Perez over anyone on the Scrubs roster.

Even in our "internal debates" on this forum, that dynamic plays out... we each have players we love, and players we'd just as soon seen dealt. Sometimes there is a general consensus (like DFAing Susac). Other times... not so much. Even with the players we like and think can contribute, we have disagreements on how to use them. I think Brent Suter can be a solid starter, and have for a while. Others think he's better off in the pen. I think Braun could contribute at third, the rest of the board says "Hell no."

So, yeah, maybe we do. Still, I'm confident in the young pitching the Crew has. Woodruff and Davies are going to improve, Suter's looking solid (I think if he does stretch out, he'll be good - plus, he was a Cub-killer in 2017). Anderson has managed to take a step up. Nelson was good before he got hurt. Chacin's certainly a solid addition. Burnes, Derby, Ventura, and Ortiz all look promising.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#54

Posted: February 01, 2018, 11:36 AM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
I have been arguing for years not to take WAR seriously. Yet it is the single most used stat in baseball these days.


It's always ideal to use as much relevant information as possible to arrive at any given conclusion. It's also key to realize how the limitations of the information used can impact the conclusions drawn & their reliability. As long as you keep that in mind, WAR is actually good for quite a bit more than absolutely nothing, though clearly still far from infallible.

WAR is certainly flawed but if we're using a single stat for some reason it's certainly more telling than previous placeholders like batting average or RBI or pitcher wins or ERA.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#55

Posted: February 01, 2018, 11:59 AM Post
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I don't think any projections coming out before rosters are set should be taken too seriously.

But regardless of what projections say, we wouldn't have signed Cain if we weren't going to address pitching. We'd have just let Phillips get the starting role. Rotation-wise, we wobbled through September last year because we had an expanded roster so we could do things like start Jeffress and do a bunch of games where we knew we would use loads of pitching. That won't work for a full season of baseball.

So, let's see what the next move is, and once we have another "proven" starting pitcher on the roster we'll likely be expected to win more games.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#56

Posted: February 07, 2018, 6:26 AM Post
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Another point of reference for the projected standings based on current rosters is Baseball Prospectus’ Projected Standings based on PECOTA data. Brewers are listed as an 83 win team, Cardinals at 84 wins, and Cubs at 89 wins. Obviously still plenty of roster moves likely for teams between now and opening day.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#57

Posted: February 07, 2018, 7:53 AM Post
Posts: 3306
83 wins sounds about right for this team if they don't improve the starting pitching... With the group they have right now, the bullpen will be worn out by early June

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#58

Posted: February 07, 2018, 8:06 AM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
83 wins sounds about right for this team if they don't improve the starting pitching... With the group they have right now, the bullpen will be worn out by early June


I get that we need to get at least one starter to make the team playoff-formidable, but is the starting pitching really that far off of what they had last year? Yes, Nelson is going to miss a chunk of the season, but doesn't Chacin theoretically replace some of his production? Also, a combo if Woodruff/Suter/Gallardo really can't be worse than the numbers Peralta and Garza put up last year. I mean, I get that we may see regression from Anderson and Davies, but expecting them to be demonstrably worse in 2018 than they were in 2017 is a pretty pessimistic way of looking at things.

I still expect them to somehow grab a good starter before opening day, either by trade of FA signing, but the cupboard definitely isn't bare.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#59

Posted: February 07, 2018, 8:27 AM Post
Posts: 11297
JosephC said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
clancyphile said:
Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.


Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.


If that was the Cubs rotation, we'd all be sitting here saying Anderson's last 1 1/2 year run was a fluke and, even if it wasn't, that the guy has never even gotten to 153 major league innings in a single season. That comment would be followed with the idea that the rest of the starters are #4's and #5's.

Still puzzled that the Brewers would make huge investments in outfielders, when the only real outfield problem was OBP out of centerfield and it was likely the richest talent area in the entire organization.

Pitching was better than the hitting last year and certainly got the job done, but I don't blame outsiders one bit for throwing a little doubt in the direction of the pitching staff.


OBP wasn't the problem as much as the propensity for strikeouts up and down the lineup, but especially in CF and to a lesser extent RF. They added two guys who put the bat on the ball a lot and get on base too. They happened to be both be outstanding defensive outfielders too. Between Broxton and Santana, that's 353 strikeouts many coming with men in scoring position. Defense in RF last year was very sub par and it will be as long as Santana is on the team, but at least now they can take replace him late in games with Phillips, another outstanding defender.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#60

Posted: February 07, 2018, 8:46 AM Post
Posts: 1759
Location: New Berlin, WI
Eye Black said:
Another point of reference for the projected standings based on current rosters is Baseball Prospectus’ Projected Standings based on PECOTA data. Brewers are listed as an 83 win team, Cardinals at 84 wins, and Cubs at 89 wins. Obviously still plenty of roster moves likely for teams between now and opening day.


Those numbers look far more reasonable than the crap fangraphs is using. Pitching is still a big issue, and I'm sure there are specific player projections I'll nitpick when I read the whole article, but overall result is reasonable. You can also argue that unless the Cubs add another starter, they got slightly worse(losing arrieta/davis) while 3 teams in the division are likely to improve. Sure they added some solid pieces to replace those guys, but nobody up to the caliber of Arrieta or Davis. Davis > Morrow. Chatwood will probably be a reasonable replacement for Lackey.


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