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Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)

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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#61

Posted: February 07, 2018, 9:08 AM Post
Posts: 3075
They have a number of guys who logic would suggest will be regression candidates and they haven't yet addressed the pitching. They can't play 5 OFers so their overal hitting talent doesn't count because you can't field a real team with the way the roster sits right now.

The off-season isn't over and they will have one TOR addition if not two by the time they report.


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Online  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#62

Posted: February 07, 2018, 9:15 AM Post
Posts: 4394
Location: New Berlin, WI
Boomer5 said:
They have a number of guys who logic would suggest will be regression candidates and they haven't yet addressed the pitching. They can't play 5 OFers so their overal hitting talent doesn't count because you can't field a real team with the way the roster sits right now.

The off-season isn't over and they will have one TOR addition if not two by the time they report.


They worked that into the projection. Santana specifically is projected for something like 300 AB, Thames is also projected for limited PT. I have issues with many of their projections, so it surprises me that they came to such reasonable win totals.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#63

Posted: February 08, 2018, 6:20 AM Post
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Here’s free money for those that are certain of how bad projection systems are.

Brewers at 81.5 wins, only 12 games behind the Cubs (which I realize could be a bit inflated due to public team nature).

https://twitter.com/covers/status/961394247697084416


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins
#64

Posted: February 08, 2018, 6:23 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Eye Black said:
Another point of reference for the projected standings based on current rosters is Baseball Prospectus’ Projected Standings based on PECOTA data. Brewers are listed as an 83 win team, Cardinals at 84 wins, and Cubs at 89 wins. Obviously still plenty of roster moves likely for teams between now and opening day.


Those numbers look far more reasonable than the crap fangraphs is using. Pitching is still a big issue, and I'm sure there are specific player projections I'll nitpick when I read the whole article, but overall result is reasonable. You can also argue that unless the Cubs add another starter, they got slightly worse(losing arrieta/davis) while 3 teams in the division are likely to improve. Sure they added some solid pieces to replace those guys, but nobody up to the caliber of Arrieta or Davis. Davis > Morrow. Chatwood will probably be a reasonable replacement for Lackey.


They’ll also have Quintana for the full season, Lester’s peripherals suggest he’s not as bad as last season, and Chatwood replacing Lackey is a very low bar.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#65

Posted: February 08, 2018, 8:14 AM Post
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Brewers at 81.5 wins, only 12 games behind the Cubs (which I realize could be a bit inflated due to public team nature).

81.5 seems like a solid over/under win total for the Brewers as currently constructed, which should readily climb after the rotation gets improved with 1-2 more arms before opening day.

This Cubs' projection still feels high to me based on their team as currently constructed - if everything breaks right for them, sure, they're a 90-95 win ballclub. However, they have very little depth and nothing ready to contribute in the minors via callup or trade, and are already getting long in the tooth at a few positions/rotation spots. Quintana for a full season - he's projected to go 10-10 with an ERA just shy of 4...to me that's not a drastic improvement to what they got from Arrieta last year. I still think they are going to regret letting Jimenez go to acquire Quintana - if he avoids injuries he's going to be a perennial all star. This is probably also the year where it becomes obvious just how much a loss Gleyber Torres is to the Cub organization - it won them the world series by bringing Chapman into their bullpen for 1/2 a season, but imagine how much rosier things would look for the Cubs currently if they had the current #4 and #6-ranked prospects sitting in AAA or potentially available to headline a trade for an impact starter. Obvious qualifier, I fully expect the Cubs to go out and sign another starter to improve their rotation.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#66

Posted: February 15, 2018, 7:12 AM Post
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The Clay Davenport Projections updated on Tuesday, and have the Brewers projected as an 87-win Wild Card participant.

Here are the full NL Central projections...

NL Cent	Won	Lost	Runs	Runs Against
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#67

Posted: February 15, 2018, 7:39 AM Post
Posts: 4178
Eye Black said:
The Clay Davenport Projections updated on Tuesday, and have the Brewers projected as an 87-win Wild Card participant.

Here are the full NL Central projections...

NL Cent	Won	Lost	Runs	Runs Against
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815


812 runs is a huge jump from their production last season - basically their projection indicates they're going to slug their way to alot of wins as currently constructed. Cubs at 95 now with Darvish on their roster is realistic. Brewers adding another solid rotation piece would likely bump their projection in this system up closer to 90.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#68

Posted: February 15, 2018, 2:33 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
Eye Black said:
The Clay Davenport Projections updated on Tuesday, and have the Brewers projected as an 87-win Wild Card participant.

Here are the full NL Central projections...

NL Cent	Won	Lost	Runs	Runs Against
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815


812 runs is a huge jump from their production last season - basically their projection indicates they're going to slug their way to alot of wins as currently constructed. Cubs at 95 now with Darvish on their roster is realistic. Brewers adding another solid rotation piece would likely bump their projection in this system up closer to 90.


Slugging out of it is right! He has Santana as our full time RF with Braun as our 4th OF/1B.

Wow look at that pitching! If Stearns sees anything like this with his projections no wonder Boras is licking his chops. What a mess.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#69

Posted: February 15, 2018, 9:09 PM Post
Posts: 1480
Eye Black said:
The Clay Davenport Projections updated on Tuesday, and have the Brewers projected as an 87-win Wild Card participant.

Here are the full NL Central projections...

NL Cent	Won	Lost	Runs	Runs Against
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815


I think these are a little optimistic for us but there are enough that are pessimistic. I would think Cobb would add a win or two more. Upgrade 2B and it could make things interesting.


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Online  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#70

Posted: February 16, 2018, 2:00 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
https://sports.bovada.lv/baseball/mlb-season-props

Over/Under on Brewers wins currently is 84.5. Cardinals at 85.5 and Cubs at 94.5. Those projections make more sense than most of what we are seeing.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#71

Posted: February 16, 2018, 2:09 PM Post
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The Brewers' line got bet up from 81.5 pretty quickly, which I can buy.


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Online  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#72

Posted: February 16, 2018, 2:11 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
The Brewers' line got bet up from 81.5 pretty quickly, which I can buy.


I'm guessing many of those betters anticipate us adding a SP. I wish I had a line on betting something like that and could have gotten in on that 81.5 win mark.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#73

Posted: February 16, 2018, 2:16 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
bill hAll Star said:
The Brewers' line got bet up from 81.5 pretty quickly, which I can buy.


I'm guessing many of those betters anticipate us adding a SP. I wish I had a line on betting something like that and could have gotten in on that 81.5 win mark.


The initial line I saw was also from covers. It's possible that Bovada opened closer to 84.5.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#74

Posted: February 16, 2018, 11:02 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
https://sports.bovada.lv/baseball/mlb-season-props

Over/Under on Brewers wins currently is 84.5. Cardinals at 85.5 and Cubs at 94.5. Those projections make more sense than most of what we are seeing.

When it comes to pro sports, Vegas is usually pretty darned close. Given the Pirates "rebuild" and the Cardinals losing Lynn (likely), Oh, Rosenthal, Piscotty, and Grichuk and picking up only Ozuna, I'd be inclined to take the over.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#75

Posted: March 13, 2018, 8:03 PM Post
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Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe wrote an article addressing the Brewers low win projection...

Let’s Talk About the Brewers’ Mediocre Projection


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#76

Posted: September 07, 2018, 10:55 PM Post
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bumping this thread, because I always enjoying looking at these discussions largely held well before the season started.

Fangraphs' final preseason record projections had the Braves at 73 wins, Nats at 92, Brewers at 79, Dbacks at 80, Rockies at 79, A's at 77, Mariners at 78, Blue Jays at 85, Red Sox at 92, Orioles 76, Rays 76. I'll grant them that historically great runs like the Red Sox are on are basically impossible to project preseason. However, when they are significantly off on projected records of 1/3 to 1/2 of MLB teams, it puts into perspective how difficult it is to try and forecast baseball - which IMO is why it's the greatest sport to be a fan of.

Here's to hoping Fangraphs adds a "Brewer Bias" correction factor to their projections next year, which should just add about 12 wins to whatever flawed system they use spits out in march 2019.


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Online  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#77

Posted: September 07, 2018, 11:54 PM Post
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If you had told me at the start of the year that Miley and Chacin would be their best pitchers, I'd have said the Fangraphs win estimate was too low.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#78

Posted: September 08, 2018, 7:07 AM Post
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I am of the firm belief that these projection systems undervalue bullpens and defense. Look at the Royals run. I have no scientific proof to support my position yet lol.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#79

Posted: September 08, 2018, 7:12 AM Post
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It makes for a long off season of posters getting anxious about not signing the “best” free agents but it sure is fun as heck to sign the Chacin’s and Miley’s of the world and win anyways.


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Offline  Re: Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)
#80

Posted: September 08, 2018, 7:51 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe wrote an article addressing the Brewers low win projection...

Let’s Talk About the Brewers’ Mediocre Projection


The real knee slapper here is how the author has nothing good to say about the prospects of Jesus Aguilar! He was certain Jesus would done and off the roster. [laughing]
They didn't care for Villar and he is no longer around. Right now Shaw is doing better than we expected after we got Moose but they didn't think Shaw would be all that hot this year either at 3rd.
They liked us getting Yelich and Cain but they didn't think these 2 would be as good as they are. I saw a lot of Yelich when he was in Miami (we get all of those games down here) and I was thrilled when we traded for him.
The rotation still has issues but Davies might be back to form. Chacin and Wiley turned out better than we could have dreamed.

But what I found curious is they didn't say a WORD about one of our biggest strengths - our bullpen. They mentioned it in passing in their little graph but that's about it.


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