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Are we undervaluing Woodruff??

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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#21

Posted: February 12, 2018, 5:11 AM Post
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The Fine line between a pitcher being undervalue and overvalued is a thin one.

A pitcher that can put up a good ERA and WHIP but not a great one that could put up a strike out per inning tend to be undervalued.

How ever they can regress and not really get good for the first 4 or 5 years and if that happens then they clearly are overvalued.

For Woodruff ? It's too early to say what road he's going to go down.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#22

Posted: February 12, 2018, 8:14 AM Post
Posts: 3217
Seeing as Woodruff is still on preseason prospect lists, it's obviously too early to tell what sort of pitcher he'll be as a finished product in MLB - I think the combination of AAA CO Springs, the hamstring injury right in the middle of the season, and a rushed call-up to bolster a floundering rotation in early August led to his uneven 2017.

This is an excerpt from an article in mid-September last year:

"As the 2017 MLB season winds down, Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Woodruff is a pitcher to watch for September. He’s made four starts in the majors since early August and has performed well: 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings with a 20/9 K/BB and 17 hits allowed. He was particularly excellent in his last start against the Washington Nationals on September 2nd, giving up one run in seven innings on two hits and a walk while fanning eight. He goes up against the Pittsburgh Pirates this evening."

This was written before his last 4 starts of the season, 3 of which were poor. He eclipsed 100 pitches in that Nationals start, which was the only time that happened his entire 2017, including the minors. In fact, the last time he even got close to reaching 100 pitches in the minors was in early June, right before his initial call-up that led to his hamstring injury. He got ~4 rehab appearances in CO Springs, throwing around 50 pitches per outing, before being recalled to Milwaukee, and he instantly goes 97, 98, 81, 105 his first four starts. Then his last four go 95, 94, 92, 52...to me it seems like he may have wore down due to that injury, and the timing of when it happened forced the Brewers to throw him into the fire before he was back to a typical starter workload of ~100 pitches every 5 days.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#23

Posted: February 12, 2018, 8:49 AM Post
Posts: 2490
Location: New Berlin, WI
Fear The Chorizo said:
Seeing as Woodruff is still on preseason prospect lists, it's obviously too early to tell what sort of pitcher he'll be as a finished product in MLB - I think the combination of AAA CO Springs, the hamstring injury right in the middle of the season, and a rushed call-up to bolster a floundering rotation in early August led to his uneven 2017.

This is an excerpt from an article in mid-September last year:

"As the 2017 MLB season winds down, Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Woodruff is a pitcher to watch for September. He’s made four starts in the majors since early August and has performed well: 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings with a 20/9 K/BB and 17 hits allowed. He was particularly excellent in his last start against the Washington Nationals on September 2nd, giving up one run in seven innings on two hits and a walk while fanning eight. He goes up against the Pittsburgh Pirates this evening."

This was written before his last 4 starts of the season, 3 of which were poor. He eclipsed 100 pitches in that Nationals start, which was the only time that happened his entire 2017, including the minors. In fact, the last time he even got close to reaching 100 pitches in the minors was in early June, right before his initial call-up that led to his hamstring injury. He got ~4 rehab appearances in CO Springs, throwing around 50 pitches per outing, before being recalled to Milwaukee, and he instantly goes 97, 98, 81, 105 his first four starts. Then his last four go 95, 94, 92, 52...to me it seems like he may have wore down due to that injury, and the timing of when it happened forced the Brewers to throw him into the fire before he was back to a typical starter workload of ~100 pitches every 5 days.


You make a good point on that injury. Significant time off like that can impact every aspect of his pitching, including mechanics, command, and conditioning.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#24

Posted: February 12, 2018, 2:58 PM Post
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I guess I'm just hoping that Woodruff is capable of being that #3 guy in future years who can consistently give you like 180 IP and 3.75 ERA. His command was iffy at times last year, but I do think that if he makes the right adjustments and gets some more Major League experience, he's pretty likely to reach his ceiling soon and provide a steady mid-rotation arm that would help the Brewers from having to go out and pay Lance Lynn $15M/year to do that.

I do think he got overshadowed a bit by Hader coming up and is now being overshadowed a bit by Burnes, and those two guys may end up having better careers but that doesn't mean Woodruff can't be a huge part of our rotation for the next 5 years.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#25

Posted: February 12, 2018, 3:07 PM Post
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I do argree with you guys that having Woodruff MLB-ready should steer the Brewers clear of signing and overpaying a Lynn or a Cobb.

However, I do believe that Stearns should not hesitate to include Woodruff in a deal paired with Santana to land a cheap, controllable Top of the Rotation Arm.

The Brewers desperately need one if they plan on contending (especially in a division with the Cubs), and outside of signing Arrieta to a long and risky contract, I think that may be the only way Stearns will be able to do it.

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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#26

Posted: February 12, 2018, 4:11 PM Post
Posts: 781
Check his game logs to make sure you know all the context. This guy held his own in some beastly tough situations.

8 games total, including 6 in hitter-friendly Milwaukee and 1 at Coors Field
Faced great offenses in Washington and Chicago, and very good ones in Miami (though Stanton ph'ed) and Minnesota
Pittsburgh was a respectable offense with Marte back and McCutchen returning to form when he faced them
Cincinnati and Colorado were about average offenses
His only "easy" game was at Tropicana
Did this all in the thick of a tight wild-card chase

It's not much evidence to go on, but it's pretty favorable given the circumstances. Can't wait to see him pitch this year.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#27

Posted: February 12, 2018, 5:48 PM Post
Posts: 1670
Fear The Chorizo said:
Seeing as Woodruff is still on preseason prospect lists, it's obviously too early to tell what sort of pitcher he'll be as a finished product in MLB - I think the combination of AAA CO Springs, the hamstring injury right in the middle of the season, and a rushed call-up to bolster a floundering rotation in early August led to his uneven 2017.

This is an excerpt from an article in mid-September last year:

"As the 2017 MLB season winds down, Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Woodruff is a pitcher to watch for September. He’s made four starts in the majors since early August and has performed well: 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings with a 20/9 K/BB and 17 hits allowed. He was particularly excellent in his last start against the Washington Nationals on September 2nd, giving up one run in seven innings on two hits and a walk while fanning eight. He goes up against the Pittsburgh Pirates this evening."

This was written before his last 4 starts of the season, 3 of which were poor. He eclipsed 100 pitches in that Nationals start, which was the only time that happened his entire 2017, including the minors. In fact, the last time he even got close to reaching 100 pitches in the minors was in early June, right before his initial call-up that led to his hamstring injury. He got ~4 rehab appearances in CO Springs, throwing around 50 pitches per outing, before being recalled to Milwaukee, and he instantly goes 97, 98, 81, 105 his first four starts. Then his last four go 95, 94, 92, 52...to me it seems like he may have wore down due to that injury, and the timing of when it happened forced the Brewers to throw him into the fire before he was back to a typical starter workload of ~100 pitches every 5 days.


I can see where pitching so many pitches when he wasn't used to it, probably blew out the gas tank. I bet he comes into camp in excellent shape and ready to roll knowing there is a spot in the rotation begging for him to claim.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#28

Posted: March 04, 2018, 9:05 AM Post
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Last year the Brewers were patient with Davies as he struggled during the first half of the season. I don't see a reason for the Brewers not to employ the same strategy with Woodruff. This organization can't afford to develop potential quality pitchers and then not give them a reasonable chance to produce.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#29

Posted: March 04, 2018, 9:35 AM Post
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I guess that depends on how one values Woodruff.

I value him as someone likely capable of producing at the level of a 4/5 starter this year with the upside of possibly being a solid 2/3 in the future, maybe even as soon as this season.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#30

Posted: March 04, 2018, 10:56 AM Post
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Are we underrating Woodruff? I hope so. I see him as a good solid #4 or #5 Starter, career 3.85-4.35 ERA 1.223 WHIP type of guy. The type of pitcher who can definitely help a team, but not a star, not a stopper, not an ace.

I'd be thrilled if I'm underrating him. Gun pointed at my head and having to guess? I might be overrating him....

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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#31

Posted: March 04, 2018, 2:08 PM Post
Posts: 3512
NYChez said:
Last year the Brewers were patient with Davies as he struggled during the first half of the season. I don't see a reason for the Brewers not to employ the same strategy with Woodruff. This organization can't afford to develop potential quality pitchers and then not give them a reasonable chance to produce.


I agree. Woodruff is a better option than Garza or some of the others that were sent out to start. Even if he has Matt Garza numbers, he's only being paid about $600K a year.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#32

Posted: March 04, 2018, 11:02 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
I agree. Woodruff is a better option than Garza or some of the others that were sent out to start. Even if he has Matt Garza numbers, he's only being paid about $600K a year.


In fairness, Garza had a very good first half until he tore up his shoulder and tried to pitch through what he thought was only soreness.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#33

Posted: March 05, 2018, 8:29 AM Post
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DHonks said:
clancyphile said:
I agree. Woodruff is a better option than Garza or some of the others that were sent out to start. Even if he has Matt Garza numbers, he's only being paid about $600K a year.


In fairness, Garza had a very good first half until he tore up his shoulder and tried to pitch through what he thought was only soreness.


Didn't know about the injury, but the point about the final numbers is still valid, I think.

Whether it was injury, age-related decline, Garza's 4.65 ERA over four years in Milwaukee was a #4/5 start performance that the Brewers paid $12.5 million a year for.

If Woodruff posts that, at least the Crew is only paying $600,000 a year.

AlB had it best: You don't pay a good-field no-hit shortstop like Royce Clayton $2 million a year in the 2003 timeframe, and you don't pay a #4/5 starter who averages a 4.65 ERA $12.5 million a year from 2014-2017.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#34

Posted: March 05, 2018, 11:18 AM Post
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If Woodruff pitches as well as Davies did at the start of last season then he should be in the minors until he gets it figured out. I don't care if we sent out worse pitchers in the past. The whole point is to get better pitchers so we don't have to trot those types out again. If there are better options than Woodruff to start the year then use them. When Woodruff becomes the best option then bring him up. Personally I am not at all worried about Woodruff. I think he is better than he is looking early on in spring. I don't think he's one of those guys who needs a great spring to win a rotation spot. They have enough information on him that what he does in one month of exhibition games isn't going to move the needle much, if at all. If they feel he's the best option a not so stellar spring stat line won't hurt him.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#35

Posted: March 05, 2018, 2:06 PM Post
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Reasons to believe Woodruff is undervalued:
1) He's a consensus top-100 prospect and was not given it by default simply by being a 1st round pick or getting a huge signing bonus. College players picked later in the draft have to have significant success over multiple seasons to get Top 100 status.
2) Colorado Springs messes with everyone - look at how Hader did in CS, then look at how Hader did in MIL last year
3) Look at Woodruff's AA and A+ numbers - very similar to Burnes, and better K% than Burnes
4) Woodruff had never pitched into September before - in the minors his seasons were done at the end of August


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#36

Posted: March 05, 2018, 4:10 PM Post
Posts: 916
Location: Ohio
LouisEly said:
Reasons to believe Woodruff is undervalued:
1) He's a consensus top-100 prospect and was not given it by default simply by being a 1st round pick or getting a huge signing bonus. College players picked later in the draft have to have significant success over multiple seasons to get Top 100 status.
2) Colorado Springs messes with everyone - look at how Hader did in CS, then look at how Hader did in MIL last year
3) Look at Woodruff's AA and A+ numbers - very similar to Burnes, and better K% than Burnes
4) Woodruff had never pitched into September before - in the minors his seasons were done at the end of August


I wouldn't call him a consensus selection. That means he is on each top 100 listing and that is not the case. He is getting recognition and is a very good prospect.

Corrected: From what I could find he is listed on the top 100 for MLB Pipeline, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law & at Prospect 361. He did not make the list for Baseball America or Fangraphs..


Last edited by MadThinker88 on March 05, 2018, 4:49 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Online  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#37

Posted: March 05, 2018, 4:18 PM Post
Posts: 8094
Location: Kenosha, WI
Are people really undervaluing him? Pretty sure most want him as the #5. They want to replace Miley/Suter...not Woodruff.


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Offline  Re: Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
#38

Posted: March 05, 2018, 4:53 PM Post
Posts: 2490
Location: New Berlin, WI
LouisEly said:
Reasons to believe Woodruff is undervalued:
1) He's a consensus top-100 prospect and was not given it by default simply by being a 1st round pick or getting a huge signing bonus. College players picked later in the draft have to have significant success over multiple seasons to get Top 100 status.
2) Colorado Springs messes with everyone - look at how Hader did in CS, then look at how Hader did in MIL last year
3) Look at Woodruff's AA and A+ numbers - very similar to Burnes, and better K% than Burnes
4) Woodruff had never pitched into September before - in the minors his seasons were done at the end of August


I'll add, look at his gamelog down the stretch. He didn't get any games against the braves or phillies or padres. He was facing contenders(and the all offense reds) in all his starts.

I think Woodruff should more than likely open on the club if no other moves are made. It becomes far more of a competition if Cobb or Arrieta is added, and maybe he's kept in AAA as depth.


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