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Moustakas agrees to deal with Royals

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Online  Re: Moustakas agrees to deal with Royals
#41

Posted: March 09, 2018, 9:52 AM Post
Posts: 1220
danzig6767 said:
Brew4U said:
How about $15M a year for Cain for five years? I like having him but all of a sudden it is looking like an overpay this offseason.

Cain had multiple suitors though, Moustakas and Boras from what i've read since free agency, has been looking to create a market and nothing materialized.

The Brewers likely were the only team to offer Cain that fifth year, but he wasn't going to be had on a one year deal like Moustakas.


Yeah, Cain is a much more valuable player. Moustakas is an ordinary player coming off a career year. It's a buyer's market, but not for every type of player at every position. The guys who really are head-and-shoulders above young in-house options and other free agents at premium positions are still going to get paid. In theory they should have gotten Cain for a little less, but I'm fine with it. Guys are getting so much less because people are realizing they're a dime a dozen, all things considered. Cain is not that.


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#42

Posted: March 09, 2018, 9:54 AM Post
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Yea, I think the dollars were at market for Cain, the only question really was the extra year.


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#43

Posted: March 09, 2018, 10:08 AM Post
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Hope the Brewers are talking to Lucroy and Walker.


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#44

Posted: March 09, 2018, 10:14 AM Post
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Sign Lucroy and Voght goes, sign Walker, and who goes? Sogard is a CC guy, and I think they are going to give Villar a fair shot at regaining his value.


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#45

Posted: March 09, 2018, 10:25 AM Post
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Cain was definitely an overpay when he was signed and this news only makes it worse.

But it's not like we are the only ones to not see this coming. Theo can't be too happy right now and all those early reliever contracts have to be looking really bad.


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#46

Posted: March 09, 2018, 10:25 AM Post
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turborickey said:
Sign Lucroy and Voght goes, sign Walker, and who goes? Sogard is a CC guy, and I think they are going to give Villar a fair shot at regaining his value.


Villar goes. No brainer. Walker >>>>> Villar


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#47

Posted: March 09, 2018, 10:32 AM Post
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tigerbrew said:
danzig6767 said:
And he turned down a 17 million dollar QO for this year.

That said, it didn't seem like he had any other suitors so at some point he had to bite the bullet and accept the situation he really was in, not what he wanted to be the case.


Wonder if it was his agent Boras that advised him to turn down the QO. If so, his agent has lost him a lot of money.

I think Boras must be getting desperate, his old ways don't work anymore, and he still has several unemployed clients. I can now see Arrieta and Holland signing for much less, maybe this could be a buying opportunity for the Brewers.


Holland I agree. Still think the AVV on Jake will be too rich for the Brewers


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#48

Posted: March 09, 2018, 10:45 AM Post
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Boomer5 said:

Villar goes. No brainer. Walker >>>>> Villar


The last part is only true if Villar fails to rebound at all. Whether he can do that or not is one of the most interesting bets the FO will make this offseason.


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#49

Posted: March 09, 2018, 11:06 AM Post
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Do you think Boras waives his fee on a contract like this?

Most free agents that get 5 year deals end up being overpays, so Cain most likely will be too, but it's not a guarantee. While he is 32 he was also in the top 5% of all MLB in sprint speed last season per statcast so any decline will be from an already elite level in that regard.

Even if it does end up being an overpay, I don't really care. Lorenzo has more than earned it. He was one of my favorite prospects to follow coming up & despite never getting any top 100 love has been a top 25 player in all of MLB since he became a regular five years ago.

The odds of him living up to a 5/80 deal may be small, but they are much greater than his odds were of ever reaching this point in the first place.


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#50

Posted: March 09, 2018, 11:23 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
Nobody in contention really needs a 3B right now and the big markets are all officially sitting this out. I think the last handful of free agents are going to get less than what they wanted but Moustakas’ situation was the worst out there.


This is absolutely a fact. Moustakas was projected to get 5/85 at the beginning of the offseason and got almost 80 million less than his projection. Nobody except the pitchers were even within range of that. And every team needs pitching, those starters and Holland aren't going to go for pennies on the dollar like Moustakas. My guess is lucroy/walker take a 1 year deals and try to reset for next year. But even if they sign similar deals to Moustakas, they weren't expected to get the gobs of money Moustakas was projected for. Going from 3/36 or 2/24 to 1/6 isn't all that drastic, and neither player has a QO attached which shoudl help them a bit.


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#51

Posted: March 09, 2018, 11:28 AM Post
Posts: 182
KeithStone53151 said:
bill hAll Star said:
Nobody in contention really needs a 3B right now and the big markets are all officially sitting this out. I think the last handful of free agents are going to get less than what they wanted but Moustakas’ situation was the worst out there.


This is absolutely a fact. Moustakas was projected to get 5/85 at the beginning of the offseason and got almost 80 million less than his projection. Nobody except the pitchers were even within range of that. And every team needs pitching, those starters and Holland aren't going to go for pennies on the dollar like Moustakas. My guess is lucroy/walker take a 1 year deals and try to reset for next year. But even if they sign similar deals to Moustakas, they weren't expected to get the gobs of money Moustakas was projected for. Going from 3/36 or 2/24 to 1/6 isn't all that drastic, and neither player has a QO attached which shoudl help them a bit.


Walker will get a deal. Not sure Luc will get a major league deal thou. People are paying for what you are not what you were.


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#52

Posted: March 09, 2018, 11:28 AM Post
Posts: 3318
Location: New Berlin, WI
Boomer5 said:
turborickey said:
Sign Lucroy and Voght goes, sign Walker, and who goes? Sogard is a CC guy, and I think they are going to give Villar a fair shot at regaining his value.


Villar goes. No brainer. Walker >>>>> Villar


You could keep Villar and Sogard, and jettison Perez. His contract is not fully guaranteed as an arb guy. Sogard is better defensively and can cover most of what Perez could cover except CF, and we'll have 2 guys capable of CF on the roster(Cain/Yelich) with Villar as an emergency option.

And in all fairness, I don't really care about wasting 2 million on Sogard if we sign Walker. It's highly likely someone else picks up sogard either on a waiver claim(paying his full salary) or after he is cut...in which case I believe they'd have to pay a portion. Regardless, the upgrade to walker on the roster vs sogard is well worth 2 million of wasted money.


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#53

Posted: March 09, 2018, 11:52 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Boomer5 said:
turborickey said:
Sign Lucroy and Voght goes, sign Walker, and who goes? Sogard is a CC guy, and I think they are going to give Villar a fair shot at regaining his value.


Villar goes. No brainer. Walker >>>>> Villar


You could keep Villar and Sogard, and jettison Perez. His contract is not fully guaranteed as an arb guy. Sogard is better defensively and can cover most of what Perez could cover except CF, and we'll have 2 guys capable of CF on the roster(Cain/Yelich) with Villar as an emergency option.

And in all fairness, I don't really care about wasting 2 million on Sogard if we sign Walker. It's highly likely someone else picks up sogard either on a waiver claim(paying his full salary) or after he is cut...in which case I believe they'd have to pay a portion. Regardless, the upgrade to walker on the roster vs sogard is well worth 2 million of wasted money.


Sogard just had a career season at age 31. I'd rather keep the soon to be 27 year old run producer in Perez who's regression year last year is on par or better than what Sogard has done prior to last season.

I like Sogard, I feel I'm just more prepared than most to see him as the player he has been most of his career rather than the one he was last season.


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Online  Re: Moustakas agrees to deal with Royals
#54

Posted: March 09, 2018, 12:16 PM Post
Posts: 1220
I still say Cain is fine. He's going to be one of the best athletes in baseball for a few more years. This is not Corey Hart or Rickie Weeks we're talking about. I trust the front office implicitly and I believe they did their homework.

He also has a rare combination of skills. Past WAR does not capture changing markets, but what we're seeing is that guys who aren't that much better than the myriad alternatives are no longer routinely getting paid as if they were just because they're more established. Is Walker going to be that much better than Villar? Lucroy over Pina? Moustakas over Valencia? Mark Reynolds over Aguilar? And don't even get me started on some of the $5m+ relievers that signed early on in free agency. Teams are finally wising up, but Cain is MUCH better than most of the alternatives so the trend doesn't extend to him.

Lastly, I would make the case that WAR above 2 or 3 is more valuable than the first couple WAR you get from a roster spot. Walker, Villar, Perez, and Sogard could each get you about 2 WAR, but at the cost of 4 roster spots. The 5 WAR you can get from Cain is worth a lot more than the combined WAR of those 4 players just because he only requires one roster spot. If you're going to be a favorite to make the playoffs, getting 6-8 WAR from those 4 is not worth as much as getting 5 WAR from Cain at a little higher price. And that's assuming WAR fully captures Cain's value, which I don't believe it does because I think WAR systematically undervalues speed.


Last edited by coolhandluke121 on March 09, 2018, 12:17 PM, edited 2 times in total.

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#55

Posted: March 09, 2018, 12:16 PM Post
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NOMAAM said:
KeithStone53151 said:
bill hAll Star said:
Nobody in contention really needs a 3B right now and the big markets are all officially sitting this out. I think the last handful of free agents are going to get less than what they wanted but Moustakas’ situation was the worst out there.


This is absolutely a fact. Moustakas was projected to get 5/85 at the beginning of the offseason and got almost 80 million less than his projection. Nobody except the pitchers were even within range of that. And every team needs pitching, those starters and Holland aren't going to go for pennies on the dollar like Moustakas. My guess is lucroy/walker take a 1 year deals and try to reset for next year. But even if they sign similar deals to Moustakas, they weren't expected to get the gobs of money Moustakas was projected for. Going from 3/36 or 2/24 to 1/6 isn't all that drastic, and neither player has a QO attached which shoudl help them a bit.


Walker will get a deal. Not sure Luc will get a major league deal thou. People are paying for what you are not what you were.


I think in most offseasons, Lucroy would. I get that teams are getting smarter, but this trickle-down from the big markets setting hard caps on themselves is huge. Guys will still get some silly "what you were" contracts in coming years.

Boston got their one guy and went over the threshold with him, but they seem to be at their cap now. Yankees, Cubs (after Darvish), Giants (after their trades), Dodgers are all completely done due to luxury tax concerns. Nats are only set on maybe one pitcher. Angels/Rangers seem to be around their cap. Toronto is tearing down, Philly is cautious and only looking at maybe 1 guy as they build, Houston is happy and know they have a huge bill coming up in the next 2 years.

Point being, almost all of the large markets are out of the bidding. Therefore, someone like Arrieta cannot say, "I have 4 offers from the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, and Nats" and then get mid markets to also step in and drive it up further.

I think next year we'll see somewhat of a return to the norm. Huge markets will get the big players, mid or the big markets that missed out on the top dogs will overpay the next level, and the bottom level will pick up the scraps.

In this year's case, the mid/small markets got some bargains like Cain and Hosmer (not a "bargain" but they got a guy they otherwise might not have). The rebuilding/lower markets cleaned up some of the 3rd tier scraps on one year deals like Carlos Gomez, and now the music has stopped and nobody's bidding. Almost everyone is happy with where they're at so the last 3 or 4 bigger free agents and the 10-15 over the hill MLB vets class are waiting for something that probably won't come. It's a buyer's market.


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Offline  Re: Moustakas agrees to deal with Royals
#56

Posted: March 09, 2018, 1:47 PM Post
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CrewFanBrewMan69 said:
Cain seems to be a pretty bad deal at this point. The OF was mostly fine but even if they wanted to add an OF Dyson, Jackson, Jay, etc on one year deals could have given us just as much this year when platooned right and not committed big, long term, money to a 32 year old who depends on athleticism to be good. Could’ve had 1 of Dyson/Gomez/Jackson/Jay, Lucroy or Avila, Walker and Chatwood or likely Cobb for what we gave Cain and for way less years


Looks like everyone let you off easy for this one so I'll refrain as well. Cain is far more valuable than you realize and I'll leave it at that.


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Offline  Re: Moustakas agrees to deal with Royals
#57

Posted: March 09, 2018, 1:56 PM Post
Posts: 3387
Location: Madison, WI
Villar goes. No brainer. Walker >>>>> Villar[/quote]

You could keep Villar and Sogard, and jettison Perez. His contract is not fully guaranteed as an arb guy. Sogard is better defensively and can cover most of what Perez could cover except CF, and we'll have 2 guys capable of CF on the roster(Cain/Yelich) with Villar as an emergency option.

And in all fairness, I don't really care about wasting 2 million on Sogard if we sign Walker. It's highly likely someone else picks up sogard either on a waiver claim(paying his full salary) or after he is cut...in which case I believe they'd have to pay a portion. Regardless, the upgrade to walker on the roster vs sogard is well worth 2 million of wasted money.[/quote]

Sogard just had a career season at age 31. I'd rather keep the soon to be 27 year old run producer in Perez who's regression year last year is on par or better than what Sogard has done prior to last season.

I like Sogard, I feel I'm just more prepared than most to see him as the player he has been most of his career rather than the one he was last season.[/quote]



If not for the financials I'd agree. However, management has a clear emphasis on good ABs and OBP these days. Sogard does that to a T, Perez is the exact opposite. Combine that with saving 1.5 million and I think Perez is the one to go.

We talked about this in another thread too. But the issue does become that all your guys are Lefty besides Villar, who is better as a lefy. So platoons or planned days aren't as easy without Perez


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#58

Posted: March 09, 2018, 2:21 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
adambr2 said:
I wonder how the Phillies feel right now about giving 20M a year to Carlos Santana.


The Padres gave $140 million to Eric Hosmer. Just a really dumb move.


I don't even feel that Hosmer is a substantially better player than his former teammate Moose.

One could even argue that good 3B are harder to find than 1B.

1B Eric Hosmer (28 years old)
Career Majors OPS=.781
Career Minors OPS=.887

3B Mike Moustakas (29 years old)
Career Majors OPS=.730
Career Minors OPS=.841

Hosmer gets $18 a year for 8 years.
Moustakas gets $6.5 one year deal.

This has got to be a joke.

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Offline  Re: Moustakas agrees to deal with Royals
#59

Posted: March 09, 2018, 3:01 PM Post
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They've both been in MLB long enough that numbers in minors don't mean anything. In fact, their first 2-3 years in MLB don't mean whole lot. Look at the last three years OBP.

Moustakas: .321
Hosmer: .359

That's almost a 40 point spread in OBP, huge. And apparently teams are all over OBP and discount slugging more than ever.

That said, yea, still seems like way too big of a gap between those two players.


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Offline  Re: Moustakas agrees to deal with Royals
#60

Posted: March 09, 2018, 3:49 PM Post
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tigerbrew said:
danzig6767 said:
And he turned down a 17 million dollar QO for this year.

That said, it didn't seem like he had any other suitors so at some point he had to bite the bullet and accept the situation he really was in, not what he wanted to be the case.

Wonder if it was his agent Boras that advised him to turn down the QO. If so, his agent has lost him a lot of money.

I think Boras must be getting desperate, his old ways don't work anymore, and he still has several unemployed clients. I can now see Arrieta and Holland signing for much less, maybe this could be a buying opportunity for the Brewers.

From what i've read, Holland very foolishly turned down 3yr/52 million from Colorado because they wanted a 4th year and the Rockies turned around and gave that 52 million to Wade Davis instead.

Now Holland looks like he's gonna have to eventually accept a one or two year deal from someone and won't get near the 52 million he and Boras turned down from Colorado.


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