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Why did our offense suck?

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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#21

Posted: March 12, 2018, 9:10 AM Post
Posts: 2604
Thames only led off 16 times, but he also hit second a bunch... and mostly with Villar's mendoza line OBP in front of him. If he would have hit 4/5 in the order I think the RBI totals would have risen a bit. Baserunning also factors in for me. Not just how many outs or where we ranked league wide, but where and when the outs were made.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#22

Posted: March 12, 2018, 9:22 AM Post
Posts: 7657
Brewers were 15th in OPS last season, 26th in OPS W/ RISP.

That stat is not false, it happened.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#23

Posted: March 12, 2018, 9:36 AM Post
Posts: 1335
DougJones'ChangeUp said:
coolhandluke121 said:
I usually would dismiss exceptionally poor hitting with RISP as a random statistical aberration, but the Brewers had many characteristics of a team that systematically under-performs in those situations.

1. I don't believe in "clutch" hitting but I do believe in "anti-clutch" hitting because there's an observable explanation - nervousness. There were a whole lot of guys on the team who desperately wanted/needed to prove themselves, and that can lead them to press in those situations.


There is also adrenaline, levels of confidence, concentration, etc. I think "clutchness" or whatever word you want to use, can exist. "In the zone" is a phenomenon many basketball players claim is real whereby performance is elevated.


It's possible, but I think the fact that some players simply aren't as nervous as others in critical situations is a much simpler explanation. Being nervous is observable if you watch closely, and there are measurable physiological differences. Being money in the clutch lacks that. As for confidence and concentration, the same thing that makes you great in the clutch should make you great in other situations.

Also, the guys who get credit for being clutch aren't the same from year to year. They've studied this quite a bit. There's not really such a thing as a clutch hitter. The guys you want in those situations are just great hitters who stay cool, but there appears to be nothing special about the situation that brings out the best in them. There are other things, like being more aggressive with RISP, but that's not clutch - that's just good strategy, because fly balls and ground balls often advance runners in those situations. Again, you just have to be a good hitter to execute, which "clutch" guys are in the 2nd inning or the 9th.

As for being in the zone, I don't think that has anything to do with "clutch" situations. It's just from being really good and putting in tons of practice hours, and it's no more likely in the clutch than in any other situation.

It's possible there is such a thing, but at this point there's basically no statistical evidence supporting it, and limited theoretical/logical explanations at best.


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Online  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#24

Posted: March 12, 2018, 9:44 AM Post
Posts: 3549
Location: Madison, WI
FVBrewerFan said:
Brewers were 15th in OPS last season, 26th in OPS W/ RISP.

That stat is not false, it happened.


this pretty much sums it up. Specific it down a bit: Thames being blah after April, 2B and CF poor all year, Braun hurt at the beginning and end along with really unlucky the middle part of the year, Shaw tailing off at the end. Put those all together and you have what happened the second half of the year


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#25

Posted: March 12, 2018, 9:55 AM Post
Posts: 7657
coolhandluke121 said:
DougJones'ChangeUp said:
coolhandluke121 said:
I usually would dismiss exceptionally poor hitting with RISP as a random statistical aberration, but the Brewers had many characteristics of a team that systematically under-performs in those situations.

1. I don't believe in "clutch" hitting but I do believe in "anti-clutch" hitting because there's an observable explanation - nervousness. There were a whole lot of guys on the team who desperately wanted/needed to prove themselves, and that can lead them to press in those situations.


There is also adrenaline, levels of confidence, concentration, etc. I think "clutchness" or whatever word you want to use, can exist. "In the zone" is a phenomenon many basketball players claim is real whereby performance is elevated.


It's possible, but I think the fact that some players simply aren't as nervous as others in critical situations is a much simpler explanation. Being nervous is observable if you watch closely, and there are measurable physiological differences. Being money in the clutch lacks that. As for confidence and concentration, the same thing that makes you great in the clutch should make you great in other situations.

Also, the guys who get credit for being clutch aren't the same from year to year. They've studied this quite a bit. There's not really such a thing as a clutch hitter. The guys you want in those situations are just great hitters who stay cool, but there appears to be nothing special about the situation that brings out the best in them. There are other things, like being more aggressive with RISP, but that's not clutch - that's just good strategy, because fly balls and ground balls often advance runners in those situations. Again, you just have to be a good hitter to execute, which "clutch" guys are in the 2nd inning or the 9th.

As for being in the zone, I don't think that has anything to do with "clutch" situations. It's just from being really good and putting in tons of practice hours, and it's no more likely in the clutch than in any other situation.

It's possible there is such a thing, but at this point there's basically no statistical evidence supporting it, and limited theoretical/logical explanations at best.


But there is statistical evidence, I just posted it earlier. Is it due to nerves, changing your approach at the plate, etc.? Or is it just random? I agree THAT part of it can never be proven one way or the other.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#26

Posted: March 12, 2018, 10:04 AM Post
Posts: 621
You provided statistical evidence of "anti-clutch", which coolhandluke121 is espousing.


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Online  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#27

Posted: March 12, 2018, 10:47 AM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
Brewers were 15th in OPS last season, 26th in OPS W/ RISP.

That stat is not false, it happened.


can you tell me where you found this? I find it hard to get splits on team stats.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#28

Posted: March 12, 2018, 11:01 AM Post
Posts: 7657
homer said:
FVBrewerFan said:
Brewers were 15th in OPS last season, 26th in OPS W/ RISP.

That stat is not false, it happened.


can you tell me where you found this? I find it hard to get splits on team stats.


Hate to say it, but the mothership. ESPN.


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Online  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#29

Posted: March 12, 2018, 11:41 AM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
homer said:
FVBrewerFan said:
Brewers were 15th in OPS last season, 26th in OPS W/ RISP.

That stat is not false, it happened.


can you tell me where you found this? I find it hard to get splits on team stats.


Hate to say it, but the mothership. ESPN.


Thanks.

Crazy stat of the day:

Baltimore had .747 OPS overall (19th) and .824 OPS with RISP (4th)

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#30

Posted: March 12, 2018, 12:11 PM Post
Posts: 3549
Location: Madison, WI
Remember a few years ago when Baltimore had some kind of ridiculous record in 1 run games? Like it was almost statistically impossible.


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Online  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#31

Posted: March 12, 2018, 12:37 PM Post
Posts: 3868
brewmann04 said:
Eric Thames hit 31 Bombs and only 63 RBI that is very weird stat.


Thames usually batted leadoff or second, IIRC.

That reduces RBI chances, especially when Villar was slumping.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#32

Posted: March 12, 2018, 12:51 PM Post
Posts: 7657
Crazy stat of the day:

Baltimore had .747 OPS overall (19th) and .824 OPS with RISP (4th)


Wow! They were really good in the clutch.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#33

Posted: March 12, 2018, 1:53 PM Post
Posts: 1335
FVBrewerFan said:

But there is statistical evidence, I just posted it earlier. Is it due to nerves, changing your approach at the plate, etc.? Or is it just random? I agree THAT part of it can never be proven one way or the other.


I'm not sure what you're getting at, but I don't think you read my post carefully. I said there's no statistical evidence of "clutch" hitters, but there is such a thing as an "anti-clutch" hitter. It's not the same thing. There's no statistical evidence of some guys consistently being better hitters in the clutch than they are in other situations (it's all just within the normal expectated random fluctuations in data), but I'm willing to bet there are some guys who are consistently worse because of nerves and other observable variables. "Anti-clutch" has some theoretical backbone, and anecdotal evidence in the form of guys like Thames who look lost under pressure. Clutch does not.

As for the evidence you posted about the Brewers, I would say it's exactly the type of evidence I'm suggesting is out there, but you have to be careful to only use it in conjuction with thorough observation of guys like Thames and Weeks who visibly looked like worse hitters in RBI situations. Otherwise you're just measuring more normal randomness in data and making a story out of it.

A proper test might be to have scouts watch a random selection of 100's of players in 100's of random at-bats and try to find those who look like significantly different caliber hitters in the clutch. Then see if any of their stats support your observations. Not many of the players would be deemed as clutch, and those that are would probably lack the stats to back it up, because it's just a matter of staying calm and doing what you know how to do - i.e., in general their performance would be about the same as non-clutch situations. But I'm willing to bet players like Weeks and Thames would be flagged and would also have the RISP stats to back up those observations.


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Online  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#34

Posted: March 12, 2018, 2:27 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
Crazy stat of the day:

Baltimore had .747 OPS overall (19th) and .824 OPS with RISP (4th)


Wow! They were really good in the clutch.


Which leads to the question...if they were so good in the clutch why can't they do that when not in a clutch situation? Different approach? Luck?

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#35

Posted: March 12, 2018, 2:37 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
Brewers were 15th in OPS last season, 26th in OPS W/ RISP.


A good lineup will have a higher OPS with RISP because the pitcher is in the compromised position. Simply put, if the pitcher can't find the strike zone, a disciplined hitter will wait for his pitch or take the walk the pitcher is giving him. Taking the walk just compromises the pitcher more. Eventually he'll have to throw in the zone. Lineups full of undisciplined hitters will let a pitcher off the hook in these situations by swinging at bad pitches. As the lineup fills out with more ABs from disciplined hitters (Cain, Yelich) and less ABs from the free swingers (Broxton, Perez, Thames), teams will be forced to come in the zone more often which will result in better hitting with RISP. Strikeouts matter. Opposing teams were fully aware that you didn't have to give in versus many of these guys. Even with runners on, we had too many guys who would get themselves out.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#36

Posted: March 12, 2018, 3:01 PM Post
Posts: 7657
Brewer Fever said:
FVBrewerFan said:
Brewers were 15th in OPS last season, 26th in OPS W/ RISP.


A good lineup will have a higher OPS with RISP because the pitcher is in the compromised position. Simply put, if the pitcher can't find the strike zone, a disciplined hitter will wait for his pitch or take the walk the pitcher is giving him. Taking the walk just compromises the pitcher more. Eventually he'll have to throw in the zone. Lineups full of undisciplined hitters will let a pitcher off the hook in these situations by swinging at bad pitches. As the lineup fills out with more ABs from disciplined hitters (Cain, Yelich) and less ABs from the free swingers (Broxton, Perez, Thames), teams will be forced to come in the zone more often which will result in better hitting with RISP. Strikeouts matter. Opposing teams were fully aware that you didn't have to give in versus many of these guys. Even with runners on, we had too many guys who would get themselves out.


But as Homer just proved, that's not necessarily true either. Baltimore didn't have a very good line-up but was 4th in RISP.

homer said:
FVBrewerFan said:
Crazy stat of the day:

Baltimore had .747 OPS overall (19th) and .824 OPS with RISP (4th)


Wow! They were really good in the clutch.


Which leads to the question...if they were so good in the clutch why can't they do that when not in a clutch situation? Different approach? Luck?


That's the thing, impossible to prove why it happens. Probably more luck/randomness than anything. But it does seem there has to be something else in play when the spreads are that large one way or another for an entire season in the case of the Brewers/Os.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#37

Posted: March 12, 2018, 3:34 PM Post
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One example (Baltimore) doesn't prove anything. You want better results with runners in scoring position? Fill your lineup with disciplined hitters. Something that was severely lacking with the Brewers the last 3 years. My goodness, sometimes you guys make this way too hard. Our offense stunk because it had too many all or nothing hitters.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#38

Posted: March 12, 2018, 4:02 PM Post
Posts: 7657
Brewer Fever said:
One example (Baltimore) doesn't prove anything. You want better results with runners in scoring position? Fill your lineup with disciplined hitters. Something that was severely lacking with the Brewers the last 3 years. My goodness, sometimes you guys make this way too hard. Our offense stunk because it had too many all or nothing hitters.


Yes it does. It proves a team had an entire season where they hit much better w/RISP than they did otherwise. And in the case of the Brewers it was the opposite. Those "all or nothing" hitters were actually very good, expect w/RISP. People keep wanting to dismiss that just because it can't be explained.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#39

Posted: March 12, 2018, 4:16 PM Post
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If one anomaly proves something here then yeah I give up. If you're still scratching your head at the mystery of why this offense stunk last year, nothing I or anyone else says is going to help you. The Brewers apparently felt they needed hitters who do a better job getting on base, put the ball in play, maintain discipline in the zone, and flat out strike out less. And they went out and paid a heavy price to add 2 of them. I happen to agree and think they were smart to do so. Their actions tell me that's what they thought was needed to make this offense stink less.


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Offline  Re: Why did our offense suck?
#40

Posted: March 12, 2018, 4:43 PM Post
Posts: 1499
jerichoholicninja said:
Overall slash:
.249/.322/.429

RISP slash:
.239/.326/.403

Men on:
.256/.332/.437

Bases empty:
.245/.315/.424

Before I looked at the number I assumed the RISP slash would be terrible compared to the overall, but it was pretty similar other than the 20 point slugging drop. They actually hit better with men on than overall and with bases empty they hit pretty much the same as overall.

The problem is mostly second half related. They averaged 4.9 r/g in the first half and 3.9 r/g in the second. Team OPS was also 60 points lower in the second half which was mostly slugging related with a 50 point drop. OBP wasn't that much lower. To me, the fact that the OPS drop was almost completely because of a SLUG drop it seems the hitters tired out. Probably because most of them haven't played a 162 game season before. If it was because of pressing I would have expected the AVG and OBP to drop much more than they did.


To the post above. While I dont disagree with the premise these numbers arent strong enough to explain it as a bad ab free swinging K issue because the reality is the the abs with risp weren't that bad. Its like me with villar... i assumed the leadoff 307 obp killed the team but we scored 5.2 runs when he hit leadoff. I also checked 3bb vs 10ks per game and over 3bb under 11ks showed offensive gain but the stats v production was quite a ways off from expected.


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