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Kelvin Herrera to Nationals

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Offline  Re: Kelvin Herrera to Nationals
#21

Posted: June 19, 2018, 9:09 AM Post
Posts: 2944
Location: New Berlin, WI
jerichoholicninja said:
A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.


You cannot compare any trade that's ever happened in baseball to that. Pure desperation to maximize their chances of ending 108 years of losing. I have a hard time believing 2 months of Mike Trout would cost more in prospects.


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Offline  Re: Kelvin Herrera to Nationals
#22

Posted: June 19, 2018, 9:22 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.


The Adam Lind trade is calling on line 1. Not every bag of magic beans is the same, but I think one needs to always consider that a team may prefer upside over ranked prospects that may have a low ceiling.


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Offline  Re: Kelvin Herrera to Nationals
#23

Posted: June 19, 2018, 9:53 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
jerichoholicninja said:
A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.


You cannot compare any trade that's ever happened in baseball to that. Pure desperation to maximize their chances of ending 108 years of losing. I have a hard time believing 2 months of Mike Trout would cost more in prospects.


We're about a month away from desperation setting in with multiple teams. If you're going to trade one of the top relievers in baseball and possibly your most valuable trade chip at this time of the season you better be getting quite a haul back. If this was the best offer available on July 31, then so be it. But if it's the middle of June and you're offered a potential 4th outfielder and a fringy 3B, you gotta hold out for something better.


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Offline  Re: Kelvin Herrera to Nationals
#24

Posted: June 19, 2018, 10:37 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
KeithStone53151 said:
jerichoholicninja said:
A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.


You cannot compare any trade that's ever happened in baseball to that. Pure desperation to maximize their chances of ending 108 years of losing. I have a hard time believing 2 months of Mike Trout would cost more in prospects.


We're about a month away from desperation setting in with multiple teams. If you're going to trade one of the top relievers in baseball and possibly your most valuable trade chip at this time of the season you better be getting quite a haul back. If this was the best offer available on July 31, then so be it. But if it's the middle of June and you're offered a potential 4th outfielder and a fringy 3B, you gotta hold out for something better.


I'm going to make a guess that the Royals' front office, while this move completely could backfire like any other move, huddled and decided that they trust their analysis of these players and therefore thought this was the best value they'd get.

I can't imagine they called a meeting and decided that while they were pretty certain that other teams would come in with a haul of prospects in return, they are just gonna do this one...just because. They must like what they see in these prospects - even more than a potential comp pick.

The only other aspect that I guess one could say is that it helps them tank a bit. But I would imagine that any fan or front office person would call that a very small detail because trading him now instead of late July probably is the difference of 1-2 wins if any. I'm not suggesting that they traded him now because of that.


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Offline  Re: Kelvin Herrera to Nationals
#25

Posted: June 19, 2018, 10:41 AM Post
Posts: 2944
Location: New Berlin, WI
jerichoholicninja said:
KeithStone53151 said:
jerichoholicninja said:
A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.


You cannot compare any trade that's ever happened in baseball to that. Pure desperation to maximize their chances of ending 108 years of losing. I have a hard time believing 2 months of Mike Trout would cost more in prospects.


We're about a month away from desperation setting in with multiple teams. If you're going to trade one of the top relievers in baseball and possibly your most valuable trade chip at this time of the season you better be getting quite a haul back. If this was the best offer available on July 31, then so be it. But if it's the middle of June and you're offered a potential 4th outfielder and a fringy 3B, you gotta hold out for something better.


Yeah there's definitely a gap between the Cubs move and this move. I'm not that familiar with the prospects, but based on their ranking it still seems like a good haul. Herrera isn't Chapman, he's not even close to Chapman. His peripherals are not on par with his ERA, he's due a bit of regression.


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Offline  Re: Kelvin Herrera to Nationals
#26

Posted: June 19, 2018, 2:43 PM Post
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bill hAll Star said:

I'm going to make a guess that the Royals' front office, while this move completely could backfire like any other move, huddled and decided that they trust their analysis of these players and therefore thought this was the best value they'd get.

I can't imagine they called a meeting and decided that while they were pretty certain that other teams would come in with a haul of prospects in return, they are just gonna do this one...just because. They must like what they see in these prospects - even more than a potential comp pick.

That's the thing some may be glossing over.

Just because prospect ranking sites have these players rated where they are doesn't mean the Royals have to feel the same.

For example, Brett Phillips was the highest rated player in the Gomez trade and he very well could end up being the least useful. Michael Brantley was the last player added to the Sabbathia trade for Cleveland and they chose him over Taylor Green who was rated as roughly an equal prospect.

This stuff is far from an exact science.


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Offline  Re: Kelvin Herrera to Nationals
#27

Posted: June 22, 2018, 7:40 AM Post
Posts: 1068
Location: Madison, WI
JosephC said:
I'd have both Gutierrez and Perkins as role player prospects and Morel as a fringe prospect. That totals 13.73 million in prospect surplus value. With a win being worth 9.16 WAR, that means Herrera has to be worth 1.5 WAR over the remainder of the season for this to be a break even trade. Herrera's average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs so far is 1.1. If he continues at this pace, the math says he'll be good for 1.4 WAR over the remainder of the season. Looks about as even a trade as you can get from the numbers perspective.


I forgot to factor in Herrera's salary. When added in, the Royals give up about 8.3 million dollars in surplus value and the Nationals give up 13.73 million in prospect surplus value. IMO the numbers show it as a solid return for Kansas City.

Interesting route the Royals are taking. From doing some reading, I get the impression that the 55 fielding grade assigned for Gutierrez by MLB.com is low. Gutierrez and Perkins have limited ceilings with the bat, but both sound like plus-plus defenders and Perkins can really run. Quantity over quality deal that brings speed and defense. Add in a young, power-arm lottery ticket.

The approximate 4.5 million addition in salary for the Nationals is near nothing as they are running a payroll over 180 million and were over the luxury tax threshold before the trade was made. I'm not really sure that Gutierrez and Perkins bats would every play up enough for an east coast team that runs a 180+ million dollar payroll...a payroll that could balloon to well over 200 million if Ted Lerner goes all in during free agency which would be a pretty good bet.

I think it's a pretty decent deal for both sides.


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